1st Half Industry figures

RedorDead

Make for miserable reading. SIMI press release below.

See two attachments from SIMI. I have June 08 in as a comparasion.

New car sales continue decline

Figures issued by the Society of the Irish Motor Industry (SIMI) show that new car sales for the month of June at 4,813 are 39.13 per cent down on the same month last year (7,907).

SIMI says the fall isn’t as big as previous months, but tneeds to be seen in the context of the lower level of sales experienced in June of last year.

The year to date (January to June) total at 46,778 is 62.32 per cent down on the same period last year (124,146). Imported Used Car registrations for June, at 3,718 were down 50.11 per cent on the June 2008 (7,452) and were down 8.19 per cent for the year to date (Jan to June) at 32,041compared to the same period last year (34,900).

HGV registrations (126) are down 53.3 per cent compared to June 2008 (270) and down 70.8 per cent year to date (776) compared to the same period last year (2,655).

Light Commercial Vehicle registrations for June 2009 (946) are down 51.98 per cent on the same period last year (1,970), the year to date figure at 6,068 is 75.45 per cent down on the first six months of last year (24,718).

Commenting on the figures and the motor industry’s challenges, SIMI Director General Alan Nolan said: “Today’s registration figures come as little surprise. New car sales for the year to date, down 62 per cent, are in line with our forecasts. The decrease in imported used cars may reflect the strengthening of sterling but also the current value that exists in the used car market here.”

He continued: “We are extremely concerned at difficulties in relation to the lack of availability of finance which is an increasing threat to business and is certain to impact negatively on businesses and jobs in the motor industry as well as on State tax revenues. Funding to support sound business activity in the sector and the availability of consumer credit for creditworthy customers is vital if we are to see a return to more normal levels of business activity. Unless this is dealt with it is difficult to see how the economy can begin to lift from its current low ebb.”

Beta Ray Bill

crappy reading alright.

I cant see things getting better soon.

does anyone have any predictions on when (if ever) new car sales will get back to the way they were?

DonJose

grahambo wrote: »

does anyone have any predictions on when (if ever) new car sales will get back to the way they were?

Car sales will return to previous levels when banks loosen their lending criteria, which basically means never. One interesting thing I have noticed is the huge amount of used cars on sale in Ireland. I'm pretty sure not all the used cars in Ireland are listed on carzone.ie, but the same can apply to autotrader.co.uk in the UK. The Irish used car market is saturated, we have roughly 3 times more used cars for sale per head of population than the UK.

IE Population 4,156,119 / 62,283 used cars = 1 used car per 60 population
UK Population 60,943,912 / 332,283 used cars = 1 used car per 183 population

R.O.R

Start of July and the plates in Dublin have only just got over 20,000. Even last year with the slow start we were around 58,000 at the start of July.

I'm doing my best and had a personal record 7 new cars delivered / collected yesterday. Come on the rest of you!

schoolbag2

Look at the HGV/light commercial figures(VRT doesnt affect them), it kinda blows their whole VRT change being the main factor of falling car sales speel out of the water.

Falling sales arent unique to Ireland, there is a worldwide recession going on.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8129744.stm

General Motors said sales fell 33.6%, while Chrysler sales fell by 42%.

and the states are busting their holes with great new car deals, combine that with Ireland being one of the worse affected countries in this recession and the whole £/€ thing. So IMO the results would be pretty much the same even if no VRT changes were made last year.

Cionád

Does anyone know what marques would be included in others?

They've almost doubled in sales, and increased their % share almost 5 fold...

BlackWizard

I don't think car sales will ever reach as high as they were in the boom years Mostly because we will need to be in a boom again for people to be spending and playing keeping up with the neighbours as much as we did.

Same goes for a lot of other industrial sectors. It's worrying that so many people are hoping everything will go back to normal where normal is defined by the boom years.

With the government cuts of billions in capital expenditure and civil service bills, I can't see this helping the motor industries or any other industrial cause over the next few years.

I guess the good side to the motor industry having such a huge drop in sales is that unlike the housing market, motor industry may hit a definitive bottom in the near future where sales will go up and down for months. Where as the housing market is really in limbo and surrounded by uncertainty, rumours and a future most see as getting worse.

Zube

grahambo wrote: »

does anyone have any predictions on when (if ever) new car sales will get back to the way they were?

In twenty years time, this recession will be entirely theoretical to a whole bunch of new buyers, and there might be another new car sales boom, except it'll be personal antigravity packs by then.

RedorDead

Cionád wrote: »

Does anyone know what marques would be included in others?

They've almost doubled in sales, and increased their % share almost 5 fold...

The vast majority of others is private imports. For example if you saw a new Mondeo on a forecourt in London and after adding in vat and vrt and transport saw you could still save 13-14% and import it - thats a private import. Basically anything new that doesnt come through the distributor here.

The collapse in sterling has led to a huge increase in these.

Top ten (Jan-Jun) are:

TOYOTA 765
AUDI 236
NISSAN 226
VOLKSWAGEN 213
BMW 173
FORD 107
PEUGEOT 81
HONDA 50
HYUNDAI 40
RENAULT 38

agent_smith

Looking at SIMI figures I would be concerned that such worrying figures would cause brands like alfa, saab and others to pull out of the Irish market....
alfa had 11 cars in June ..... Think about this... how many irish alfa dealers are there, how many models of car are there in the brand, yet 11 is the only number sold. I don't know how dealers can remain in operation without serious help from parent car companies...

robbie99

BlackWizard wrote: »

I don't think car sales will ever reach as high as they were in the boom years Mostly because we will need to be in a boom again for people to be spending and playing keeping up with the neighbours as much as we did.

Same goes for a lot of other industrial sectors. It's worrying that so many people are hoping everything will go back to normal where normal is defined by the boom years.

Excellent point. In these times people are no longer self conscious about driving not so new cars and this could take a long time to overcome.

McSpud

BlackWizard wrote: »

I don't think car sales will ever reach as high as they were in the boom years Mostly because we will need to be in a boom again for people to be spending and playing keeping up with the neighbours as much as we did.

Comparing car figures against the top of the boom (2008) is like comparing hose prices in similar manner. I would be interested to see a comparison with say 2005 which was surely a very good year but not the top of the boom. The economy is contracting to 2005 numbers fairly quickly anyway...