NAMA will bankrupt us all.

spockety

This makes for fairly horrific reading for anyone not already realising what is going on around us:


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0703/1224249965637.html

OPINION: Nama is in effect Fianna Fáil’s shrine to the property bubble for which the party still yearns. Prepare to pay 10 per cent more in income tax for the next 10 years to pay for it all . . . we are headed for national bankruptcy, argues MORGAN KELLY

WRITING HERE two years ago, I pointed out that the exuberant lending of Irish banks to builders and property developers would sink them if the property bubble burst. Since then, the bubble has burst, the banks have sunk, and we are all left wondering how to salvage them.

Two ideas for fixing the banks have been suggested: a bad bank or National Asset Management Agency (Nama) and nationalisation. While these proposals differ in detail, their impact will be identical. Irish taxpayers will be stuck with a large bill, and in return will get an undercapitalised and politically controlled banking system.

A far more efficient and cheaper alternative to Nama is to copy what Barack Obama did with General Motors, and transfer ownership of Irish banks to their bond holders. In this way we can achieve well capitalised banks, run without political interference, at minimal cost to taxpayers.

By converting a portion of Allies Irish Banks’ approximately €40 billion of bonds, and Bank of Ireland’s €50 billion, into shares, each institution can be recapitalised. Transferring ownership to bond holders will not cost the taxpayer a cent and will avoid interminable legal battles over the transfer of assets to Nama.

While the shaky state of Irish banks had been worrying investors since early 2007, when the crisis finally broke in late September the Government was taken completely by surprise and reacted with blind panic. Faced with a run on Anglo Irish Bank by institutional depositors on September 29th, the Government was stampeded into guaranteeing virtually all liabilities, except shares, of the six Irish banks.

This guarantee contained two obvious but fundamental flaws. Everything that has happened since – the proposed recapitalisation of Anglo, the nationalisation of Anglo, the establishment of Nama – can be understood as the Government scrambling to catch up with the consequences of these two errors.

The first mistake was to guarantee not only deposits – which had to be guaranteed – but also most of the existing bonds issued by banks to other financial institutions. Bond holders receive higher returns in the knowledge that they are accepting the risk of losses on their investment. In addition, unlike depositors who can scarper, existing bond holders are effectively stuck.

It made no sense for the Government to insist that taxpayers would take the hit on any bank losses instead of the financial institutions that had already entered legal contracts to do so.

The second mistake was to extend the guarantee to Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide. As specialised property development lenders with incompetent management, they were at risk of heavy losses as their market collapsed, and fulfilled no role in the wider economy.

In making the guarantee on September 29th, I do not doubt that the Government believed that the difficulties of Irish banks ran no deeper than temporary liquidity problems stemming from the international crisis. However, as it has become apparent that Anglo was a mismanaged wreck, with AIB and Bank of Ireland scarcely better, the Government has stuck with the mantra that all banks are equally important and equally worth saving at any cost to the taxpayer.

Brian Lenihan and Brian Cowen are happier to dice with national bankruptcy than lose face by admitting that they were misled about the state of Irish banks last September.

Nama, then, is the latest twist in the Government’s increasingly bizarre efforts to save the Irish banking system while claiming that it does not really need to be saved.

Underlying Nama is the delusion that the collapse of our property bubble is a temporary downturn. In a few years time when the global economy recovers we will be back building houses like it was 2006. All the ghost estates, empty office blocks, guest-less hotels and weed choked fields that Nama has bought on our behalf will once again be worth a fortune.

The reality is that, because of our surfeit of empty housing, there will be almost no construction activity for the next decade. Empty apartment blocks in Dublin will eventually be rented, albeit at rates so low that many will decay into slums. However, most of the unfinished estates that litter rural Ireland – where the only economic activity was building houses – will never be occupied.

Nama is a variant on the “Cash for Trash” scheme briefly floated in the United States last year where the government would recapitalise banks by overpaying for their bad loans. Our Government is proposing to buy €90 billion of loans and will reportedly pay €75 billion for them.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) guesses that Nama will cost us €35 billion, and this is probably optimistic. The narrowness of the Irish property market meant that banks effectively operated a pyramid scheme, bidding up prices against each other. Now that banks cannot lend, development assets are effectively worthless.

The taxpayer is likely to lose well over €25 billion on Anglo alone. Among its “assets” are €4 billion lent for Irish hotels, and almost €20 billion for empty fields and building sites. In fact, I suspect that the €20 billion already repaid to the casino that was Anglo represents winners cashing in their chips, while the outstanding €70 billion of loans will turn out to be worthless. And it is well to remember, as the architects of Nama have not, that although the problems of Irish banks begin with developers, they do not end there.

The same recklessness that impelled banks to lend hundreds of millions to builders to whom most of us would hesitate to lend a bucket; also led them to fling tens of billions in mortgages, car loans, and credit cards at people with little ability to repay. Even without the bad debts of developers, the losses on these household loans over the next few years will probably be sufficient to drain most of the capital out of AIB and Bank of Ireland.

Brian Lenihan’s largesse to bond holders could cost you and me €50 to €70 billion. What do numbers like these mean?

The easiest way to put numbers of this magnitude into perspective is to remember that in 2008 the Government generated €13 billion in income tax. Every time you hear €10 billion, then, think of paying 10 per cent more income tax annually for the next decade.

In other words, the fiscal capacity of a state with only two million taxpayers, and falling fast, is frighteningly thin. Ten billion here, and ten billion there and, before you know it, you are talking national bankrutcy. Even without bankrupty, Nama will ensure a crushing tax burden for everyone in Ireland for decades.

The tragedy is that, were it not for the Government’s botched efforts to save financiers from the predictable consequences of their own greed, the Irish economy would have recovered far more quickly than most people, including the IMF, expect.

Recovery for the Irish economy will not be easy – there is no painless way for an economy to move from getting about 20 per cent of its national income from construction to getting about zero – but the flexibility of the Irish labour market would have ensured that our incomes and share of global trade would have rapidly recovered. Now, however, any fruits of recovery will be squandered on Nama.

Aside from the fact that Nama will spend huge sums to achieve little, its governance is problematic. Here, the fog of secrecy that has quietly settled over Anglo Irish since nationalisation sets an unsettling precedent.

After revelations of financial irregularities forced the resignation of three executive directors, Anglo moved decisively to replace them with . . . Anglo insiders. Most astonishing, in the light of the scandal over Irish Nationwide deposits, was the decision to replace Anglo’s disgraced financial director with his immediate subordinate, Anglo’s chief financial officer.

It is hard not to conclude that a deliberate decision has been made at the highest level of Government that what happened in Anglo, stays in Anglo. And we can expect Nama to be run in the same tight manner.

While there has been considerable speculation about dark motives for bailing out developers and banks, I do not believe that the Government’s behaviour has been corrupt: it has been far worse. At least corruption implies a sense that you are doing wrong, and need to be paid in return. Our Government actually thought it was doing the right thing in risking everything to safeguard the interests of developers who had given us an economy that was the envy of Europe.

Instead of recognising bankers and developers as parasites on our national prosperity, the Government came to see them as its source. While everyone else in Ireland has come to see the past decade as an embarrassing episode of collective insanity to be put behind us as soon as possible, the Government still sees it as the high point of our nation’s history. Nama is effectively Fianna Fáil’s shrine to the bubble, and likely to be an expensive and enduring one.

What should be done instead of Nama? First, we need to understand how the idea of Nama follows from a mistaken analogy with the Swedish banking crisis and bad bank of the early 1990s. The Swedish banks differed in one fundamental way from ours: they only had deposits as liabilities. If their government had not taken over their bad debts, ordinary depositors would have suffered. By contrast, Irish banks had borrowed heavily from other financial institutions through bonds, and these bondholders originally agreed to take losses if Irish banks got into difficulties.

By placing the costs of the banking collapse primarily on existing holders of bank bonds, the State can improve its credit rating and pull back from the edge of bankruptcy. Knowing that taxpayers are not liable for the losses of AIB and Bank of Ireland will make capital markets more willing to lend to the Irish State.

Instead, like a corpulent Tooth Fairy gently slipping billions under the pillows of sleeping bond holders, Brian Lenihan has chosen to extend the liability guarantee and further weaken the bargaining position of the State.

The drift into national bankruptcy looks increasingly unstoppable.

Morgan Kelly is professor of economics at University College Dublin

El Stuntman

as a taxpaying citizen, reading that article (fantastic piece btw) I have to wonder why on earth I'd want to stick around here to pay for the incompetence and corruption of our ruling class?

the other thing that shines through is Kelly's anger at the Anglo\INBS situation. These 'banks' should have been allowed fail, there was never any justification in guaranteeing them. He went as far in a prior article as to suggest that Lenihan's own officials advised against guaranteeing them and were overruled in murky circumstances. Now Anglo is locked up tighter than the CIA and no information is coming out.

We need to know exactly what went on with Anglo, what happened in relation to Quinn's shareholding, why it was guaranteed.

I used to think that Alan Dukes was a rare breed; a politician who would put country before narrow political interest. What is he doing for us on the board of Anglo?

D3PO

good article but it is a bit once sided. needs some balance.

ok so we let the bondholders take the hit.

most of these are hedge funds and pension funds, what impact will that have on our pensioners over the forseeable future ?

also no mention of the concequences of said bondholders losing their meney, its probably fair to say that the availability of credit to our banking system would dry up outside of henfty interbank lending rates. It might capitalise our banks short term but we havnt hit the turning point yet so were likely to end up back at square one with nobody willing to provide capital and potentially in a worse banking mess than we are already in.

also said bondholders are the ones buying our government bonds do you think if FF stick them for 50 billion they are stilll going to buy irish government bonds ? I think not


if he had covered the consequences of his suggestion in more detail this article would have been excellent.

gurramok

We are at the mercy on the international investors due to FF's cockup.

€6bn(from yesterdays exchequer figures) has already been added to the national debt to prop up the banks this year alone and thats only the start so yeh, the taxpayer will pay for this and NAMA in the long run through higher taxes.

D3PO

gurramok wrote: »

We are at the mercy on the international investors due to FF's cockup.

€6bn(from yesterdays exchequer figures) has already been added to the national debt to prop up the banks this year alone and thats only the start so yeh, the taxpayer will pay for this and NAMA in the long run through higher taxes.

I dont disagree Im just saying sticking the bondholders isnt without its own complications would have been nice to see the article argue both sides of the proposal.

El Stuntman

D3PO, I think you will find that Irish pension funds hold a relatively small percentage of Irish bank's bonds so I find the pensioners argument a bit spurious (their holding of equities would have been far greater and they've already been decimated on that). Pensioners (normal ones anyway) typically don't invest in hedge funds either.

our banks liquidity profiles are already being propped up by ECB money so can't see that changing much if we did smack the bondholders with the hit.

D3PO

El Stuntman wrote: »

D3PO, I think you will find that Irish pension funds hold a relatively small percentage of Irish bank's bonds so I find the pensioners argument a bit spurious (their holding of equities would have been far greater and they've already been decimated on that). Pensioners (normal ones anyway) typically don't invest in hedge funds either.

our banks liquidity profiles are already being propped up by ECB money so can't see that changing much if we did smack the bondholders with the hit.

ok I admit Im unaware how much of our pension funds are in bank bonds, but certianly a proportion are in irish bank shares. turning the bondholders debt into shares reduces the share value within these pension funds anyway so either way there is a hit

currently propped up by ECB money but not just ECB money (Didnt AIB just raise a billion 2 weeks back from a bond issue ? )

anyway being propped up by the ECB is ok now but I would suggest its not sustainable long term

ntlbell

it's grand lads, we're just nearing the bottom.

then the party's back on!!!

*cracks open the shampers*

D3PO

ntlbell wrote: »

it's grand lads, we're just nearing the bottom.

then the party's back on!!!

*cracks open the shampers*

:D

Got that Friday feeling NTL ?

bugler

On another consequence of these events, I think we've started down a road that will lead to the return of politically motivated violence to this Island. The inspiration this time will not be nationalism, but rage and frustration borne by the political fiddling that continues today.

D3PO

bugler wrote: »

On another consequence of these events, I think we've started down a road that will lead to the return of politically motivated violence to this Island. The inspiration this time will not be nationalism, but rage and frustration borne by the political fiddling that continues today.

there has been political fiddling since we established our own parliment. its not led to violence before no reason it would now :eek::eek:

quozl

D3PO wrote: »

currently propped up by ECB money but not just ECB money (Didnt AIB just raise a billion 2 weeks back from a bond issue ? )

Nope, I don't think so. What they did was buy back 1m worth of bonds that were not secured by the government guarantee, and therefore worth something like 30c on the euro iirc, with money that IS guaranteed by the government.

So they decreased their out-standing debts, increasing how much Ireland is on the hook for in the process. Probably still a good idea, as if we wont let them default/go bust, then we're on the hook for it all anyway really.

But no, it is the ecb propping everything up. The banks buy irish debt, which they then deposit with the ECB to get more funds. So the ECB gives money to the irish government by proxy, who give money to the banks.

So the ECB props them both up. Or at least that's my understanding of things, and I'm not complaining.

Freddie59

Money couldn't be provided for:

A national cervical cancer vaccine (€10m)

A state of the art schools building programme (€1bn)

Waterford Crystal (along with may others) pension fund deficit (€111m).

Yet the National Pension Reserve fund can be stripped of BILLIONS for banksters and developers under the guise of NAMA.

I voted for them for 32 years.

Never, ever, again.

HANG YOUR HEADS IN SHAME FIANNA FAIL.

EKRIUQ

Freddie59 wrote: »

I voted for them for 32 years.

Never, ever, again.

HANG YOUR HEADS IN SHAME FIANNA FAIL.

This is said all the time but if an election was held tomorrow you would probably put them in again, you have for the last 32 years and most FIANNA FAIL people won't change, its just hot air that will evaporate before election time.
:mad:

D3PO

EKRIUQ wrote: »

This is said all the time but if an election was held tomorrow you would probably put them in again, you have for the last 32 years and most FIANNA FAIL people won't change, its just hot air that will evaporate before election time.
:mad:

Ive never voted for them and I never will :cool:

ZYX

Freddie59 wrote: »

Money couldn't be provided for:

A national cervical cancer vaccine (€10m)

A state of the art schools building programme (€1bn)

Waterford Crystal (along with may others) pension fund deficit (€111m).

Yet the National Pension Reserve fund can be stripped of BILLIONS for banksters and developers under the guise of NAMA.

I voted for them for 32 years.

Never, ever, again.

HANG YOUR HEADS IN SHAME FIANNA FAIL.

Did you not notice the shambles they were making in the country for last 12 years?
Did you not notice the disgraceful school buildings before now?
Did you not notice the huge waste in health that Mary Harney refused to address? Did you not notice that she has spent more on health than all other Health Ministers combined since the founding of the state with very little improvement in services?
Did you not notice public service pay and pensions increasing way above inflation, Simply to ensure re election?
Did you not notice extra layers of administration being added everywhere which only served to increase the numbers employed in Public Sector?
Did you not notice that the public servants who got the largest increases in pay and expenses over last 12 years were politicians?
Did you not notice stupid wasteful project after stupid wasteful project? Thornton Hall, HSE, PPars, Electronic voting, decentralisation, any IT project you care to mention, etc
Are you really saying it is only after reading this article that you will consider voting someone else?

OK rant over.

damnyanks

The funny (Or sad) thing is that a lot of the banks around the world are allegedly buying back into mortgage backed securities big time because of government setting up schemes where by they buy the products off them.

Big arbitrage scenario! They are buying something no one wants or will touch because governments around the world will soon have a guaranteed price for their asset

Freddie59

ZYX wrote: »

Did you not notice the shambles they were making in the country for last 12 years?
Did you not notice the disgraceful school buildings before now?
Did you not notice the huge waste in health that Mary Harney refused to address? Did you not notice that she has spent more on health than all other Health Ministers combined since the founding of the state with very little improvement in services?
Did you not notice public service pay and pensions increasing way above inflation, Simply to ensure re election?
Did you not notice extra layers of administration being added everywhere which only served to increase the numbers employed in Public Sector?
Did you not notice that the public servants who got the largest increases in pay and expenses over last 12 years were politicians?
Did you not notice stupid wasteful project after stupid wasteful project? Thornton Hall, HSE, PPars, Electronic voting, decentralisation, any IT project you care to mention, etc
Are you really saying it is only after reading this article that you will consider voting someone else?

OK rant over.

If I'd wanted a lecture I'd have gone to Trinity. Lucky you're so perfect.:rolleyes: You obviously don't follow this board closely, otherwise you'd see my sentiments towards FF since this whole bankster/property developer scenario. Perhaps, in future, you might pay others the respect of checking your facts before going on one of your rants, as you describe it yourself.

I have laid my cards on the table. It is far from 'hot air' as you describe it. And many other long-time FF voters feel the same. The country has been betrayed for generations to come, all for a few banksters and property barons.

ZYX

Freddie59 wrote: »

If I'd wanted a lecture I'd have gone to Trinity. Lucky you're so perfect.:rolleyes: You obviously don't follow this board closely, otherwise you'd see my sentiments towards FF since this whole bankster/property developer scenario. Perhaps, in future, you might pay others the respect of checking your facts before going on one of your rants, as you describe it yourself.

You hardly expect me to look through your over 2000 posts to check your opinions on FF do you? . My point still stands though if your "sentiments towards FF" only changed since "this whole bankster/property developer scenario". My list of items all predated this.

Freddie59 wrote: »

I have laid my cards on the table. It is far from 'hot air' as you describe it.

I never described it as hot air.

tHE vAGGABOND

The people who should hang their heads in shame are those who returned FF to government a very short time ago...

Those who switched their votes late on

Regardless about the debate about Enda Kenny being a muppet, any other government would be better than this one IMHO. I would *love* some kind of Rainbow coalition around now, with Labour/left wing elements keeping the other side in check. Where the green party are just like the PD's, acting as an extension of the FF Party.

Freddie59

tHE vAGGABOND wrote: »

The people who should hang their heads in shame are those who returned FF to government a very short time ago...

Those who switched their votes late on

Regardless about the debate about Enda Kenny being a muppet, any other government would be better than this one IMHO. I would *love* some kind of Rainbow coalition around now, with Labour/left wing elements keeping the other side in check. Where the green party are just like the PD's, acting as an extension of the FF Party.

1. Enda Kenny is universally recognised as a muppet. Richard Bruton would make a far better leader.

2. I take your point about returning them to power. But a factor which KEPT them in power was the unstoppable greed which turned normal people into mini-property moguls.

3. Labour operates under a socialist flag of convenience, jumping into bed with whoever they can. Recent history demonstrates that. FF are what they are. But Labour? No thanks.

4. There is a HUGE chance that you could see a Lab/FF (in that order) coalition after the next election, with Gilmore as Taoiseach He's not that stupid. And that election will, I think, happen before year's end.

And yes Fianna Fail must HANG THEIR HEADS IN SHAME.

They were the ones in office.

They are the ones bailing out the banksters and developers.

Not the voters.

Rosser

Freddie59 wrote: »

I voted for them for 32 years.

Never, ever, again.

HANG YOUR HEADS IN SHAME FIANNA FAIL.

32 years? So you voted for them through Haughey, through GUBU, Bertie on the take, Albert Reynolds and the Fr Smith scandal, Liam Lawlor, Beverly Flynn etc etc etc, I wouldn't let the country's bankruptcy put you off now Freddie

DJDC

32 years? You have just lost any respect right there. Anyone who blindly follows one party ideologies whether its the Chinese CCP or FF is an idiot. And to vote for them through all the corruption is another shameful act. However at least your "defection" from your family party is a sign that their loyal core base is starting to erode.

Ardent

You know, it's bad enough that they nationalised Anglo Irish - they should have been lynched on the streets for that alone - but what really infuriates me is that they refuse to divulge any figures regarding the toxic debts placed on the the taxpayer.

But what's the point in talking - the Irish electorate in the main are happy to take it up the arse and vote Fianna Fail in time after time. As one poster said above, maybe it's time for the rest of us to leave this country, why should we have to pay for this incompetence and corruption for generations to come?

Rant over.

Freddie59

DJDC wrote: »

32 years? You have just lost any respect right there. Anyone who blindly follows one party ideologies whether its the Chinese CCP or FF is an idiot. And to vote for them through all the corruption is another shameful act. However at least your "defection" from your family party is a sign that their loyal core base is starting to erode.

I've laid my cards on the table. And TBH, your 'respect' wouldn't really bother me.:rolleyes: I wonder how many on here have the gumption to do the same. Very few, I'd say. Run with the hare/hunt with the hound brigade. Yes, their loyal base, as you put it, has collapsed.

It is also interesting to note that many FG/Lab voters (and I know several) switched their allegiances to FF in the past 12 years. Otherwise they could not have stayed in power for as long. People wanted a part of the "action". Greed got the better of them.

As for 'blindly' following, there wasn't (and still isn't) much different on offer. Are FG really any different? And then there are the idiots who support Labour and their socialist flag of convenience. Glass houses, stones, etc.

Freddie59

Rosser wrote: »

32 years? So you voted for them through Haughey, through GUBU, Bertie on the take, Albert Reynolds and the Fr Smith scandal, Liam Lawlor, Beverly Flynn etc etc etc, I wouldn't let the country's bankruptcy put you off now Freddie

I don't think bankruptcy even covers it Rosser.

ZYX

Ardent wrote: »

But what's the point in talking - the Irish electorate in the main are happy to take it up the arse and vote Fianna Fail in time after time.

Have FF ever received a majority of the vote?

the_syco

If the banks goto sh|t, and die, where would we get loans from?

Duckjob

the_syco wrote: »

If the banks goto sh|t, and die, where would we get loans from?

Capitalism 101.

From new institutions that will be quickly set up by entrepreneurs spotting the business opportunity of the century, and eager to mop up thousands of easy customers.

the_syco

Duckjob wrote: »

Capitalism 101.

From new institutions that will be quickly set up by entrepreneurs spotting the business opportunity of the century, and eager to mop up thousands of easy customers.

To be a bank, you must have money to loan to people.

zeris

While there are people with capital (there always will be), people who want capital (there always will be) and a way to turn a profit (this is left as an exercise to the reader) there will be institutions that behave like banks.

They just may not be Irish institutions. But at present, who wants to have the Irish government as your competitor who can cheat by changing legislation.