Have you purchased recently?

johndaman66

Think the sooner the general population and first time buyers in particular realise that 30/ 35/ 40 year mortgages are just ridiculous the sooner we can see more realistic asking/selling prices materialising.

MuffinsDa

We sold our mid-terrace 2 bed in Greystones in May 09.
Put it on the market at 369 in Sep 08.
Successively dropped it, down to 325 in Feb 09 (It was pretty much always lowest price or second lowest - and there's plenty of similar properties on the market).

Got two offers for 300 in Feb 09, then one went up to 305 and that's what it went for.

We bought it off plans in 05 (finished in Jan 06) for 320, so it wasn't a huge loss...

Eglinton

MuffinsDa wrote: »

Got two offers for 300 in Feb 09, then one went up to 305 and that's what it went for.

We bought it off plans in 05 (finished in Jan 06) for 320, so it wasn't a huge loss...

So I guess it's reasonably fair to say that we're at about 2004 prices at the moment in Dublin commuter land (and probably dropping further). These kind of examples and the various media stories we hear appear to be indicating that anyway.

MuffinsDa - Would you happen to know what your type of house was selling for at their peak?

astrofool

johndaman66 wrote: »

Think the sooner the general population and first time buyers in particular realise that 30/ 35/ 40 year mortgages are just ridiculous the sooner we can see more realistic asking/selling prices materialising.

I don't see the length of mortgages shortening at all, it's a guaranteed revenue stream for the banks for a long time, so it would require legislation to get rid of it.

What I did was take a long term loan at at level we were comfortable with, and have then been overpaying to reduce the term by 10 years (and still be comfortable). We have the benefits of a safety net, and can also re borrow the money we over pay by, so it works well as saving (and mortage interest rates will always be far less than other loans).

MuffinsDa

Eglinton wrote: »

So I guess it's reasonably fair to say that we're at about 2004 prices at the moment in Dublin commuter land (and probably dropping further).

Yes, I agree with that.

Eglinton wrote: »

MuffinsDa - Would you happen to know what your type of house was selling for at their peak?

380-400 Allegedly. Which is absolutely insane for a small 2-bed mid-terrace in commuter land (a very nice commuterland though!) in a 1000+ development.

ronbyrne2005

Forget about asking prices. Some are realistic( a guy who has to sell soon), some are unrealistic(i know several in my area asking similar price for past 2 years.). The only way to judge is to find out what houses sold for at peak and what they sell for now. Neighbours and friedns usually find out what a house sells for in the end. The governmnet knows what houses are selling for today as they have access to the documentation for stamp duty purposes etc. The gov should publish an index based on their actual sales data for similar houses in particular areas without giving the exact details of individual houses.

Tech3

ronbyrne2005 wrote: »

Forget about asking prices. Some are realistic( a guy who has to sell soon), some are unrealistic(i know several in my area asking similar price for past 2 years.). The only way to judge is to find out what houses sold for at peak and what they sell for now. Neighbours and friedns usually find out what a house sells for in the end. The governmnet knows what houses are selling for today as they have access to the documentation for stamp duty purposes etc. The gov should publish an index based on their actual sales data for similar houses in particular areas without giving the exact details of individual houses.

Were looking at another 50% drop at least in the next number of years. Houses are still way overpriced.

D3PO

tech2 wrote: »

Were looking at another 50% drop at least in the next number of years. Houses are still way overpriced.

wow you have a good crystal ball. How about backing that up with why prices are still over 50% overpriced ?

spockety

D3PO wrote: »

wow you have a good crystal ball. How about backing that up with why prices are still over 50% overpriced ?

What was once, shall be again. And so on, and so forth.

Inflation adjusted house prices since 1978. Look where it came from. Look where it went. Look where it's going.

D3PO

spockety wrote: »

What was once, shall be again. And so on, and so forth.

Inflation adjusted house prices since 1978. Look where it came from. Look where it went. Look where it's going.

nobody would argue that its not going down that graph doesnt indicate we are still 50% from the bottom

Freddie59

spockety wrote: »

What was once, shall be again. And so on, and so forth.

Inflation adjusted house prices since 1978. Look where it came from. Look where it went. Look where it's going.

Got it in one Spockety.

It is inevitable. Last November (when we sold our house) we moved into an estate where the houses were on at €265k (had been €300k+). Offered €200k. Told to eff off. One sold last week for €180k. And they are still dropping.

As I said earlier we have bought for €175k in an estate which had been on at €320k in April 2007. Houses there are still on at €290k+.

We have bought for roughly early 2000 prices. And they will go lower. Our problem was the continuing insecurity in the banking sector, where our equity was lodged.

Only for that we would have waited longer. But we have done very well.:)

bangersandmash

D3PO wrote: »

wow you have a good crystal ball. How about backing that up with why prices are still over 50% overpriced ?

Even Tom Parlon is talking about those kind of cuts these days, albeit coming from a rather different point of view than Tech2.

"Any firesale now when there isn’t liquidity and there isn’t the confidence or the demand would certainly mean that property prices could be halved," he said.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/snqlsnqlgb/rss2/

spockety

bangersandmash wrote: »

Even Tom Parlon is talking about those kind of cuts these days, albeit coming from a rather different point of view than Tech2.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/snqlsnqlgb/rss2/

Yeah, in other words, if the market was allowed to naturally correct itself that's what would happen. Everything possible will be done in an attempt to prevent that, hence NAMA. It will fail.

Tech3

D3PO wrote: »

wow you have a good crystal ball. How about backing that up with why prices are still over 50% overpriced ?

You are incorrect I never said they were 50% overpriced. I said I expected a 50% drop. They are actually 100% overpriced.

Reasons:

• High unemployment
• Increased taxes less income
• Banks not lending as freely
• 80K of houses on Daft alone which is excessive.

Why 100% overpriced? Well take a look at average house prices before the boom and adjust for inflation. People are not prepared to pay for a house at the current market price.

D3PO

tech2 wrote: »

You are incorrect I never said they were 50% overpriced. I said I expected a 50% drop. They are actually 100% overpriced.


Reasons:

• 
  
  
• High unemployment
• Increased taxes less income
• Banks not lending as freely
• 80K of houses on Daft alone which is excessive.

Why 100% overpriced? Well take a look at average house prices before the boom and adjust for inflation. People are not prepared to pay for a house at the current market price.

i dont see anything here that says they are 100% overpriced. Just your gut using the current economic situation to indicate that people wont pay the bubble prices. Nobody disputes that it doesnt say they are 100% overpriced though.

out of curiosity what do you think the real market value of the average 3 bed semi D in Dublin should be by the time we hit the bottom ?

SparkyLarks

spockety wrote: »

What was once, shall be again. And so on, and so forth.

Inflation adjusted house prices since 1978. Look where it came from. Look where it went. Look where it\'s going.

Need to factor in Intrest rates into that as well though.
intrest rates were up to 18% at one point I believe. This will have a major factor on what People are able to pay.

But in the period where flat on the graph, i.e 78 to 91, I believe intrst rates were around 12 %( though I can;t find conformation of this andy help appreciated)

If intrest rates go back up to that I would agree that house prices will end up back at the 100,000 inflation adjusted figure, but If intrest rates only go up to 6% then the average figure shouldn;t go as low, posibbly closer to 180,000

Tech3

D3PO wrote: »

i dont see anything here that says they are 100% overpriced. Just your gut using the current economic situation to indicate that people wont pay the bubble prices. Nobody disputes that it doesnt say they are 100% overpriced though.

out of curiosity what do you think the real market value of the average 3 bed semi D in Dublin should be by the time we hit the bottom ?

It depends on what part of Dublin the property is located. I said that a price drop of 50% at least which would mean I cant determine the bottom but expect it to hit 50% at least. The bottom could be a lot more but as you said I havnt a crystal ball!

Personally I wouldnt pay over 200K for a house in Dublin ever.

Tech3

D3PO wrote: »

Just your gut using the current economic situation to indicate that people wont pay the bubble prices.

I dont need to. There is little activity in the current market which is less than the bubbles prices.

Raskolnikov

bangersandmash wrote: »

Even Tom Parlon is talking about those kind of cuts these days, albeit coming from a rather different point of view than Tech2.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/snqlsnqlgb/rss2/

So the biggest construction head honcho has come out and said that Irish property prices are still 50% overvalued? :eek:

Raskolnikov

tech2 wrote: »

It depends on what part of Dublin the property is located. I said that a price drop of 50% at least which would mean I cant determine the bottom but expect it to hit 50% at least. The bottom could be a lot more but as you said I havnt a crystal ball!

Personally I wouldnt pay over 200K for a house in Dublin ever.

Location, location, location. If you got offered a house in Foxrock Sandymount or Killiney, I'm sure you would.

D3PO

Raskolnikov wrote: »

So the biggest construction head honcho has come out and said that Irish property prices are still 50% overvalued? :eek:

thats not what he has said. read the article again ....

Theboinkmaster

D3PO wrote: »

wow you have a good crystal ball. How about backing that up with why prices are still over 50% overpriced ?

No he's just well informed - you should do the research yourself.

He is right - average 3 bed semi D in places like Ballinteer, Dundrum etc WILL fall to €200k region.

Tech3

Daft is now giving an option to select 50K as the minumum now whereas a few weeks ago you could only select min or 100K when searching for a property. Sign of the times!

D3PO

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

No he's just well informed - you should do the research yourself.

.

Oh I have thats why I think to expect a further decrease of 50% from todays house prices is not on the agenda.

Im happy to be proved wrong but if your going to put out statements like that then you should be prepared to back it up with the reasons that you believe it will happen. I would contend saying house prices will fall a further 50% to be very much ill informed. To put that into context that would put prices back to late 1996 levels without even being inflation adjusted and would indicate at current falling rates that house prices will continue to fall for at least another 4 years.

Theboinkmaster

D3PO wrote: »

Oh I have thats why I think to expect a further decrease of 50% from todays house prices is not on the agenda.

Im happy to be proved wrong but if your going to put out statements like that then you should be prepared to back it up with the reasons that you believe it will happen. I would contend saying house prices will fall a further 50% to be very much ill informed. To put that into context that would put prices back to late 1996 levels without even being inflation adjusted and would indicate at current falling rates that house prices will continue to fall for at least another 4 years.

I'm not going to repeat what's been posted on this forum millions of times recently, along with over at the propertypin.com.

We'll agree to disagree and leave it at that

am i bovvered

on for 150k 2weeks later offer 130k accepted 135k

stepbar

am i bovvered wrote: »

on for 150k 2weeks later offer 130k accepted 135k

Where?


A gaff I have my eye on started out in Sept 08' for 350k. Today the est agent is looking for 195k :eek: This place is no more than a mile from where I live at present (South Dublin).

Truth be told, house prices (outside of Dublin anyhow) have a long way to go. For example in Leitrim, some people are still looking for 2007 prices. And I know of a number of properties on the market around where I'm from which are at best 30 - 40% overprised and will never be sold as it stands. Madness.

am i bovvered

stepbar wrote: »

Where?

Mayo... it was competively priced, and it sold quickly.

would contend saying house prices will fall a further 50% to be very much ill informed. To put that into context that would put prices back to late 1996 levels without even being inflation adjusted and would indicate at current falling rates that house prices will continue to fall for at least another 4 years.

I totally agree with this, there were crazy statements made on the upturn and the same is happening on the downturn. I bought my home in '97 for 38k !! It is a really lovely house, a house on our road is now on for 310k which is still over valued but not by that much.

Tech3

am i bovvered wrote: »

stepbar wrote: »

Where?

Mayo... it was competively priced, and it sold quickly. I totally agree with this, there were crazy statements made on the upturn and the same is happening on the downturn. I bought my home in '97 for 38k !! It is a really lovely house, a house on our road is now on for 310k which is still over valued but not by that much.

Unless you did some major work to your home then it is overvalued. How many beds? semi detached? location?

Freddie59

am i bovvered wrote: »

It is a really lovely house, a house on our road is now on for 310k which is still over valued but not by that much.

Relative to what, exactly?