What Happens if No Wins again?

FutureTaoiseach

PopeBuckfastXVI wrote: »

Yes but the problem with your argument, is that it could still be postulated (incorrectly in my view, based on the referenda in France & Holland) that the unemployment rate in Spain would be worse if they had voted 'No'.

Your argument is inherently logically flawed, and doesn't actually falsify anything.

It is simply a statement of fact. Has Spanish unemployment almost doubled since they voted yes? Yes it has. That is merely stating a fact.

marco_polo

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

Spanish unemployment[/URL] since their yes vote to the EU Constitution in 2005 does not inspire confidence that a voting for Lisbon will bring an economic divident to help us to economic safe-harbour.

Ok nobody could possibly type that with a straight face. I am now convinced you are just on a wind up

Presumably your keen mathematical sense would also agree that a rise in umbrella sales causes more road accidents?

Heavy rain causes more road accidents - umbrella sales and road accidents may look correlated, but one is not causing the other.

PopeBuckfastXVI

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

It is simply a statement of fact. Has Spanish unemployment almost doubled since they voted yes? Yes it has. That is merely stating a fact.

It's a statement of fact, which you are attempting to use to falsify a premise it's not capable of falsifying though. Why can't you just admit that and move on?

FutureTaoiseach

marco_polo wrote: »

Ok nobody could possibly type that with a straight face. I am now convinced you are just on a wind up

Presumably your keen mathematical sense would also agree that a rise in umbrella sales causes more road accidents?

Heavy rain causes more road accidents - umbrella sales and road accidents may look correlated, but one is not causing the other.

No. But the Government is using the recession as an argument for voting yes. Two can play at that game. I am not so much arguing that Spanish unemployment doubled because of the yes vote, as I am arguing there is no evidence of an economic-dividend from their having voted yes. And if there is none in Spain, why would there be one if we vote yes in Ireland?

oscarBravo

Enough. FutureTaoiseach is banned for a week for repeatedly bringing the Spanish unemployment red herring into the debate.

marco_polo

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

No. But the Government is using the recession as an argument for voting yes. Two can play at that game. I am not so much arguing that Spanish unemployment doubled because of the yes vote, as I am arguing there is no evidence of an economic-dividend from their having voted yes. And if there is none in Spain, why would there be one if we vote yes in Ireland?

I can't believe I am bothering but, can you give some of the predicted figures from the yes side as to the Economic Benefits expected to accrue from a yes vote to an unimplemented treaty?

bladespin

marco_polo wrote: »

I can't believe I am bothering but, can you give some of the predicted figures from the yes side as to the Economic Benefits expected to accrue from a yes vote to an unimplemented treaty?

This should be good...

BlitzKrieg

bladespin wrote: »

This should be good...

or not

FutureTaoiseach is banned for a week for repeatedly bringing the Spanish unemployment red herring into the debate

oscarBravo

oscarBravo wrote: »

Enough. FutureTaoiseach is banned for a week for repeatedly bringing the Spanish unemployment red herring into the debate.

Hang on a second he did so because the red herring of employment rate was brought up by Popebuckfast!

Why not ban Popebuckfast?

Typical, but not surprising since the mods are fervent yes campaigners, shame on you Oscar.

Guess you're going to ban me now because I pointed that out!

PopeBuckfastXVI

Deleted User wrote: »

Hang on a second he did so because the red herring of employment rate was brought up by Popebuckfast!

Why not ban Popebuckfast?

You may be mistaken, reread the thread

marco_polo

Deleted User wrote: »

Hang on a second he did so because the red herring of employment rate was brought up by Popebuckfast!Why not ban Popebuckfast?

Typical, but not surprising since the mods are fervent yes campaigners, shame on you Oscar.

Guess you're going to ban me now because I pointed that out!

Unsurprisingly, Thats not even true.

PopeBuckfastXVI

PopeBuckfastXVI wrote: »

You may be mistaken, reread the thread

Doh,fair enuff, I shall eat my humble pie baked in the oven of shame at gasmark egg on my face!
But seriously though give him a warning 1st.

BlitzKrieg

Deleted User wrote: »

Hang on a second he did so because the red herring of employment rate was brought up by Popebuckfast!

Why not ban Popebuckfast?

uhmm no

futuretaoiseacht wrote:

the near doubling of Spanish unemployment since their yes vote to the EU Constitution in 2005 does not inspire confidence that a voting for Lisbon will bring an economic divident to help us to economic safe-harbour.

Typical, but not surprising since the mods are fervent yes campaigners, shame on you Oscar.

Guess you're going to ban me now because I pointed that out!

his points have been disproved numerous times over many many threads, as far as even showing that after the *yes* vote Spanish employment actually went up for 2 years before dropping like everyone else.

PopeBuckfastXVI

No worries, it was buried in towards the end of his post.

FYI discussion of moderation in thread is not allowed as per the forum charter, perhaps you should open a thread in the Help Desk forum if you want to discuss it.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=30

Scrambled egg

As long as we have our bread and milk does it matter?

prinz

Deleted User wrote: »

I was in Germany for a week last week. Had a great time,talked politics lots and not one German expressed any discontent. In fact a few were quite happy that Lisbon has not been implemented.

...........right I bet they were........ I've been in Germany at least once a month for about 3 years now. I've heard plenty of uhappy campers.

Deleted User wrote: »

The only reason its still here....Are you deluded? 3 words: Low corporation tax!
Seriously though this kind of silly scare mongering has got to stop, you are not doing the yes side any favours spouting that rubbish.

And how long do you think corporation tax will stay low given the state the country is in? Multinationals are already pulling out. Look at the news from Harvey Norman today as an example."Harvey Norman Ireland" is operating at a loss. It doesn't matter if our Corporation Tax is low when the economy as a whole is sinking. Investment is flowing out of the country not inwards.

tlev

It just seems to me that it is somewhat ungrateful from a European perspective. EU investment has helped infrastructure a great deal in Ireland and by saying no twice it seems like we want to have our cake and eat it too.

I mean let's say that nothing significant happens after a second no vote. Surely in the future if problems were to arise in Ireland the EU might be more hesitant to assist?

prinz

Darragh29 wrote: »

The same EU hand that is rocking the Irish economic cradle at the moment is also holding the pillow dangerously close to the child in the cot...

As long as the EU keep bailing us out without the necessary reforms, then they are just giving us more rope to hang ourselves with. The EU are now a fundamental part of our problem here, letting us borrow half a billion Euro a month from the ECB, just to keep the lights on in the country, and the government on an extended summer holiday and not a reform or a decision in sight?!?!?!?

Yes but domestic reforms =/= Lisbon Treaty
But I agree all this talk of the EU bailing us out is nonsense. We need to get our own house in order and take a place at the European table as equals not with a begging bowl.

tlev

Yes but we have to sustain ourselves somehow until we can get to that table, if Ireland is unable to borrow it will become unable to function. And that is the fault of overspending by the government not the EU.

oscarBravo

Deleted User wrote: »

Typical, but not surprising since the mods are fervent yes campaigners, shame on you Oscar.

Guess you're going to ban me now because I pointed that out!

Don't discuss moderation in-thread - read the charter before you post again.

prinz

tlev wrote: »

Yes but we have to sustain ourselves somehow until we can get to that table, if Ireland is unable to borrow it will become unable to function. And that is the fault of overspending by the government not the EU.

Exactly we created our own problems, and now people want to take their frustrations out by voting No . It baffles me. Especially when we see Iceland looking to come shelter under the EU's umbrella. A No vote does nothing for us and does nothing for Europe. It's amazing all the nay sayers clamouring for reform........ then they vote no to a Treaty, which maintains the status quo they are unhappy with for years into the future.

brianthebard

prinz wrote: »

...........right I bet they were........ I've been in Germany at least once a month for about 3 years now. I've heard plenty of uhappy campers.

I love how you disagree with someone's personal experience then use your own as 'real' evidence. You're both wrong.

And how long do you think corporation tax will stay low given the state the country is in? Multinationals are already pulling out. Look at the news from Harvey Norman today as an example."Harvey Norman Ireland" is operating at a loss. It doesn't matter if our Corporation Tax is low when the economy as a whole is sinking. Investment is flowing out of the country not inwards.

And your solution to this is what, vote yes? Are you saying as companies leave the corp tax will go up? Isn't there another option, where manufacturing companies are brought in?

ixtlan

brianthebard wrote: »

I love how you disagree with someone's personal experience then use your own as 'real' evidence. You're both wrong.

Actually it's quite possible they are both right! It depends on who you hang out with in Germany. I'm sure it's quite possible to be in groups who are for/against/never heard of the Lisbon treaty.

Ix.

brianthebard

ixtlan wrote: »

Actually it's quite possible they are both right! It depends on who you hang out with in Germany. I'm sure it's quite possible to be in groups who are for/against/never heard of the Lisbon treaty.

Ix.

Not if they're trying to represent the people they talk to as speaking for the whole country, which seems to be the case.

nesf

Deleted User wrote: »

Typical, but not surprising since the mods are fervent yes campaigners, shame on you Oscar.

Guess you're going to ban me now because I pointed that out!

Oscar won't ban you for it but I will warn you for it. I've had more than enough of people making accusations of bias on this forum and I will start banning anyone who I see making them on threads here.

If you want to complain about bias please use this forum: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=30

To be clear: You can complain about the moderation in here but you can't do it in this forum. Use Help Desk where the arbiters will be the Admins and not the moderators of this forum.

Deleted User wrote: »

But seriously though give him a warning 1st.

This wasn't his first offence. If someone is constantly testing the limits of the rules and/or breaking them then we'll stop giving warnings and just give bans out instead. i.e. with the above, I've never seen you causing trouble on here so you got a warning. If you had a history of causing trouble on here then I would have banned you or infracted you depending on your past history.

KINGVictor

tlev wrote: »

Don't you guys think the EU might be more than just a bit annoyed at Ireland? I mean to the point where they might just say, alright, bail yourselves out. I mean Ireland prospered in part thanks to the EU membership and to turn their backs on it like this seems a bit hypocritical?

So what do you guys think the ramifications of a 2nd no would mean for Ireland?

I don't really think it is really an issue.If Ireland rejects the Treaty...a second time.Brussels has to go back to the drawing board and come up with something that would be generally acceptable to the citizenry of the EU.

People alluding that Ireland would suffer consequences for voting NO...really surprise me.If that happens then the EU would not be as just and democratic as suggested....It would be like the case of the Polish MP's who suggested that the election of an African American (Obama) as the President of the most powerful nation on earth indicates the end of the civilisation of the White race.If we vote No ...they thank us for exercising our democratic obligations and go about doing their duties.

KINGVictor

prinz wrote: »

Our economy is built on FDI. The only reason it's still here is that the E.U. is seen as our guarantors. Take that away, even a move in that direction and billions of euro leave this country. That's not scaremongering it's fact. We don't have a domestic economy capable of keeping the country afloat, unlike other EU states.

Ireland has benefited immensely from membership of the EU and vice-versa.Honestly I think the decision to locate European H/Q of yahoo,google,paypal and the numerous American drugs and IT coys in Ireland is a mix of our Low Corporation tax/Educated workforce and the fact we are English speaking and less to do with our membership of the EU.

If we are going to have problems it would be the high cost of doing business,high wages,economic uncertainty and not because we say we No to an EU treaty...( we are not exactly voting to leave the Union).In this recession most orgs are looking for cost cutting measures and cheap labour ..as such you would find out they are transferring operations to Brazil,China,India,Mexico that are not Eu countries.The solution to our economic problems would be more to do with having a Proactive,sensible and well organised national government and less with how we seem to be pleasing Brussels.

tlev

KINGVictor wrote: »

I don't really think it is really an issue.If Ireland rejects the Treaty...a second time.Brussels has to go back to the drawing board and come up with something that would be generally acceptable to the citizenry of the EU.

People alluding that Ireland would suffer consequences for voting NO...really surprise me.If that happens then the EU would not be as just and democratic as suggested....It would be like the case of the Polish MP's who suggested that the election of an African American (Obama) as the President of the most powerful nation on earth indicates the end of the civilisation of the White race.If we vote No ...they thank us for exercising our democratic obligations and go about doing their duties.

Yes I see what you are saying, if it did happen it wouldnt be just and democratic. But if the EU were to turn their backs on us we would be screwed.

KINGVictor

tlev wrote: »

Yes I see what you are saying, if it did happen it wouldnt be just and democratic. But if the EU were to turn their backs on us we would be screwed.

But I don't see any justifiable reason why the EU would want to turn its back on Ireland...because we disagree with a Treaty?...It is a Union akin to a family where disagreements are inevitable and they could not deal with that,then the whole set up/project would have been a futile experiment.

prinz

brianthebard wrote: »

I love how you disagree with someone's personal experience then use your own as 'real' evidence. You're both wrong.

brianthebard wrote: »

Not if they're trying to represent the people they talk to as speaking for the whole country, which seems to be the case.

I never pretended to represent the country as a whole... like I said in my first post I would not be able to hold my head high. I never insinuated it was national policy, just my personal knowledge from years of trips to Germany and a period living there. Whatever light someone wishes to take that is up to them. It's a simple test really which can be supported by anyone. Drive around continental Europe ( Germany, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Holland for example ) and keep note of how many times you see the blue sign with the stars and "This project was funded by the European....". Or ask anyone from these countries how many of these signs they know of around their town/city.