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What Happens if No Wins again?

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12467…19

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    #92
    Hagar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,793 ✭✭✭✭Hagar


    If history is anything to go by, the Govt will allow us another chance to give the correct answer by holding a third referendum.


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    #93
    Tony EH
    Registered Users Posts: 19,326 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    ixtlan wrote: »

    France... I've just been elected with a mandate to ratify without referendum. Let's work this out and change what we need to to make this acceptable...
    Netherlands... our courts have just ruled that we cannot have a new referendum. Let's work this out and change what we need to to make this acceptable ...

    I doubt there were too many French people that elected Sarkozy on the basis that he ratify Lisbon without putting to the people.

    And the Dutch courts didn't "rule" out a referendum. The Dutch people were simply not offered one after giving the "wrong" answer to the EU Constitution. It wasn't put to a court ruling, afaik.

    Either way, the "wrath of the EU" argument is very flimsy.


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    #94
    ixtlan
    Registered Users Posts: 1,213 ✭✭✭ixtlan


    JoCavendish wrote: »
    Can I humbly ask you what happened to the "law" that a rejection by one country caused any given treaty to be withdrawn???

    Thre is no such law. The rules state that the treaty cannot come into force without all states agreeing. Ireland did not ratify, it did not come into force. The EU has tried to clarify the contents in order to resovle concerns that many people expressed. We will now have another chance to agree. If we don't it will not come into force. Some other solution may be found but Lisbon will not happen.

    Now... go back to the question I asked you. Please explain how a double majority works, where you got the 0.8% you mentioned, and whether this is the complete extent of Irish influence on a council vote.

    Ix.


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    #95
    oscarBravo
    Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,804 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    JoCavendish has been permabanned and all his posts deleted, so any questions will go unanswered. Not that they were likely to get answered anyway, as he's a re-registration of a serial troll.


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    #96
    oscarBravo
    Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,804 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    Hagar wrote: »
    If history is anything to go by, the Govt will allow us another chance to give the correct answer by holding a third referendum.
    There's no precedent for a third referendum by any country on any treaty.


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    #97
    ixtlan
    Registered Users Posts: 1,213 ✭✭✭ixtlan


    Tony EH wrote: »
    I doubt there were too many French people that elected Sarkozy on the basis that he ratify Lisbon without putting to the people.

    Nonetheless it was part of his campaign. Either people agreed with it, or they didn't really care. Either way he had a mandate.
    Tony EH wrote: »
    And the Dutch courts didn't "rule" out a referendum. The Dutch people were simply not offered one after giving the "wrong" answer to the EU Constitution. It wasn't put to a court ruling, afaik.

    Apparently they did rule out a referendum. Others have posted on that decision here. It seems rather complex. There was a ban on referenda, a special law was passed to allow non-binding ones, and now I believe it's the case that that law was ruled illegal. So the situation is that they now cannot have a referendum.

    I have to have the final say...

    Ix.


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    #98
    Hagar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,793 ✭✭✭✭Hagar


    Is a second referendum not adequate precedent?

    Especially when we have done the double referendum routine before?


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    #99
    ixtlan
    Registered Users Posts: 1,213 ✭✭✭ixtlan


    From http://www.lisbontreaty.ie/questions/

    Under the Lisbon Treaty, a new system of ‘double majority’ voting will apply from November 2014. Decisions will normally require the support of 55% of the Member States representing 65% of the Union’s population. This means that only those measures that genuinely command majority support can be adopted at EU level.

    Under the population criteria, Ireland will have 0.8% of the vote, but under the number of states criteria we have an equal vote with the other states. Also 4 states can block, so that also grants extra power and influence to the smaller states.

    Ix


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    #100
    oscarBravo
    Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,804 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    Hagar wrote: »
    Is a second referendum not adequate precedent?

    Especially when we have done the double referendum routine before?
    I honestly don't think so. I'm not sure I'd vote yes the third time.


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    #101
    Tony EH
    Registered Users Posts: 19,326 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    ixtlan wrote: »
    Nonetheless it was part of his campaign. Either people agreed with it, or they didn't really care. Either way he had a mandate.

    ...or they disagreed with it, but agreed on other points of his campaign enough to vote for him.
    ixtlan wrote: »
    Apparently they did rule out a referendum. Others have posted on that decision here. It seems rather complex. There was a ban on referenda, a special law was passed to allow non-binding ones, and now I believe it's the case that that law was ruled illegal. So the situation is that they now cannot have a referendum.

    I have to have the final say...

    Ix.

    There was no court intereference against a referendum, the option simply wasn't on the table to begin with. The Senate simply voted in favor of it and that was it.

    Dutch law stipulates that a government is not legally binded to a referendum result. There is no "ban" on referenda, nor are they "illegal". The Dutch people simply weren't given a chance to vote on it this time out, because they didn't give the answer their political masters wanted before.

    Those naughty people.


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    #102
    ixtlan
    Registered Users Posts: 1,213 ✭✭✭ixtlan


    Hagar wrote: »
    Is a second referendum not adequate precedent?

    Especially when we have done the double referendum routine before?

    There comes a point when you just have to give up. I don't see us having another referendum for years, 5+, and that referendum might be something along the lines of pre-approving a deal that the government was negotiating.

    Democracy at this level is a wonderful thing, but it has a lot of practical problems. We are the only state in the EU whose government cannot guarantee the ratification of an EU treaty which they sign up to. Good in some ways, sure, but it also weakens their position.

    For all the talk of lack of democracy, the reality is that a NO will be generally accepted to mean we want to pull back from the EU...

    Ix.


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    #103
    Hagar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,793 ✭✭✭✭Hagar


    Should the Govt not be more in touch with what the electorate want?
    They are supposed to be representing our views, not us accepting theirs.


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    #104
    marco_polo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,079 Mod ✭✭✭✭marco_polo


    Hagar wrote: »
    Should the Govt not be more in touch with what the electorate want?
    They are supposed to be representing our views, not us accepting theirs.

    What do the electorate want?


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    #105
    sparklepants
    Closed Accounts Posts: 107 ✭✭sparklepants


    Tony EH wrote: »
    Either way, the "wrath of the EU" argument is very flimsy.
    Agreed, the "wrath of the EU" is flimsy. However "losing the goodwill of the EU" is a more compelling argument. In the past, we've benefitted from this goodwill as enthusiastic EU members. Unlike France and the Netherlands we needed it. We tend to forget how successful individual politicians were in the past at negiotiating supports for Ireland. It looks like we need that goodwill again now more than ever.
    oscarBravo wrote: »
    There's no precedent for a third referendum by any country on any treaty.
    There's also no precedent in Ireland for two rejections of the same EU treaty. Not having a precedent doesn't mean it can't happen. A third referendum is a slim possibility - if it was put to the people by a new government. A Yes campaign as part of a new and credible economic recovery plan might be more pallatable.

    However, if it's a No this time, it's possible that the Czech or Polish president won't sign off his country's ratification. In that case I think it's more likely that we'd see some political momentum in Europe for more "enhanced cooperation" among certain countries as an alternative to Lisbon, essentially marginalising the others.


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    #106
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    Hagar wrote: »
    Should the Govt not be more in touch with what the electorate want?
    They are supposed to be representing our views, not us accepting theirs.

    If the electorates view is that they dont want Lisbon then it will be voted down again. Whats the problem?


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    #107
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Hagar wrote: »
    Should the Govt not be more in touch with what the electorate want?
    They are supposed to be representing our views, not us accepting theirs.

    It's a two-way process. A lot of progressive legislation down through history has been driven by the political classes, not the electorate. The job of the government is to propose, and the job of the people, either through their representatives or directly, to dispose.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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    #108
    Hagar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,793 ✭✭✭✭Hagar


    marco_polo wrote: »
    What do the electorate want?
    turgon wrote: »
    If the electorates view is that they dont want Lisbon then it will be voted down again. Whats the problem?

    The electorate voted "No". Simple enough.

    I have no problem with the electorate making any choice it likes, be it yes, no or maybe. What I do have is a problem with is the Govt ignoring the wishes of the electorate.


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    #109
    Martin 2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 268 ✭✭Martin 2


    andy1249 wrote: »
    On a personal level , take a look at this ,

    http://www.siliconrepublic.com/news/article/13451/business/intel-warns-ireland-needs-to-lower-costs-to-win-investment



    For me this is not just Rhetoric anymore , its a very real issue.

    300 compulsory redundancies announced today , the real figure is more as the Vendor support involved with this section has been axed as well meaning at least a couple of hundred more ...

    The results of the Lisbon vote could well affect whether or not Intel bring the new 1270 tech to Ireland , if they dont , its a given that the place will wind down , losing Ireland a huge chunk of its GDP and turning North Kildare into an unemployment blackspot Ghetto.


    Andy,

    I know how you feel, I happen to live in Kildare, and in Leixlip alone Intel and HP employ 9000 people directly and many more indirectly, the loss of jobs in these multinationals doesn't just affect Leixlip it affects an area within a radius of 70km. I'm not saying the loss of these jobs is attributable to the first No but a final No would affect our ability to attract and maintain investment in these companies, Intel has effectively made public statements to this effect twice this year (also last year):

    http://siliconrepublic.com/news/article/13451/business/intel-warns-ireland-needs-to-lower-costs-to-win-investment
    http://www.businessandleadership.com/leadership/news/article/13843/leadership/a-call-for-action

    The multinational sector employs over a 100,000 people directly and a similar number indirectly in Ireland, they are responsible for over 80% of our exports and pay billions of Euros in taxes directly and through their employees. They and business organizations which represent them have come out strongly in favour of a Yes vote, see:

    Paul Duffy, Senior Executive, Pfizer Ireland. (Viagra & anti-Alzheimers treatments)
    http://archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/2009/02/22/story39739.asp

    Paul Rellis, Managing Director of Microsoft Ireland & President of AMCHAM
    http://www.oireachtas.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=10157&&CatID=36

    American Chamber of Commerce of Ireland, which represents virtually all American multinationals in Ireland
    http://www.amcham.ie/article.cfm?idarticle=642

    Irish Exporters Association
    http://www.irishexporters.ie/Lisbon.shtml

    Other business organizations such as
    -Irish Software Association
    -Pharmaceutical Ireland (Pharmaceutical manufacturers)
    -Food and Drink Industry Association
    are effectively calling for a yes through their membership of the Business Alliance for Europe.

    Martin


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    #110
    marco_polo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,079 Mod ✭✭✭✭marco_polo


    Hagar wrote: »
    The electorate voted "No". Simple enough.

    I have no problem with the electorate making any choice it likes, be it yes, no or maybe. What I do have is a problem with is the Govt ignoring the wishes of the electorate.


    By changing the constitution despite us voting no? :confused:

    Not a fan of a parties EU policy then don't vote for them in the first place. Simple.

    It seems Sinn Fein are the closest fit for most No voters, of course heaven forbid they are not anti-EU but damned if they will ever make a positive contribution to the debate on the future of the EU.

    Not a big fan of Limbo myself.


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    #111
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    Hagar wrote: »
    I have no problem with the electorate making any choice it likes, be it yes, no or maybe. What I do have is a problem with is the Govt ignoring the wishes of the electorate.

    So let me get this straight, the government asking the electorate what it thinks of the Lisbon Treaty and being bound by that judgment is ignoring their wishes? :confused:


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    #112
    Hagar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,793 ✭✭✭✭Hagar


    turgon wrote: »
    So let me get this straight, the government asking the electorate what it thinks of the Lisbon Treaty and being bound by that judgment is ignoring their wishes? :confused:
    Yes it is, if they force us to vote again so that they can have a different result.


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    #113
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    Hagar wrote: »
    Yes it is, if they force us to vote again so that they can have a different result.

    But if the electorates wish is that its a No vote, as you have maintained, how can they have a different result?


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    #114
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Hagar wrote: »
    Yes it is, if they force us to vote again so that they can have a different result.

    I've yet to be marched down to the polling station, and personally I quite enjoy the right to change my mind. Possibly we're different in that.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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    #115
    P. Breathnach
    Registered Users Posts: 12,089 ✭✭✭✭P. Breathnach


    Hagar wrote: »
    Yes it is, if they force us to vote again so that they can have a different result.

    You are not being forced to vote. You are being allowed to vote.


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    #116
    marco_polo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,079 Mod ✭✭✭✭marco_polo


    Hagar wrote: »
    Yes it is, if they force us to vote again so that they can have a different result.

    They are holding another referendum having obtained extra guarantees and clarifications on the treaty, and while I have seen the ballot paper yet, I presume there will still be two options on it.


    I thought it was the EU that was forcing us to vote again. Hmm I guess it depends who you are talking to.


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    #117
    Hagar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,793 ✭✭✭✭Hagar


    turgon wrote: »
    But if the electorates wish is that its a No vote, as you have maintained, how can they have a different result?

    The electorate voted "NO" on the day, is that in dispute? That was the result of the referendum wasn't it? Should we be bound by that?

    There is no denying that some NO votes may be scared into voting YES this time, there is a good possibility that complacent YES advocates who didn't bother to vote last time will vote this time. Naturally YES people will claim that is the democratic voice of the people but we already heard the voice and it said NO.

    /edit Didn't some British politician say publicly that those so called "guarantees" were meaningless?


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    #118
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    Hagar wrote: »
    The electorate voted "NO" on the day, is that in dispute? That was the result of the referendum wasn't it? Should we be bound by that?

    No its not in dispute. However the will of the electorate will also be consulted again. Given that the referendum is merely a method by which to determine the will of the people, saying the second referendum is somehow illegitimate is saying the will of the people this year is illegitimate.
    Hagar wrote: »
    There is no denying that some NO votes may be scared into voting YES this time, there is a good possibility that complacent YES advocates who didn't bother to vote last time will vote this time. Naturally YES people will claim that is the democratic voice of the people but we already heard the voice and it said NO.

    So now the truth emerges: your not against a second referendum for some high minded democratic ideal but rather because you fear the Yes side will win.


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    #119
    marco_polo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,079 Mod ✭✭✭✭marco_polo


    Hagar wrote: »
    The electorate voted "NO" on the day, is that in dispute? That was the result of the referendum wasn't it? Should we be bound by that?

    There is no denying that some NO votes may be scared into voting YES this time, there is a good possibility that complacent YES advocates who didn't bother to vote last time will vote this time. Naturally YES people will claim that is the democratic voice of the people but we already heard the voice and it said NO.

    Glad we have cleared that up. The real issue is that you resent the fact that other people might exercise their democratic right to change their mind and may well do so give the vastly reduced scope of the No campaign to get away with misinformation and FUD this time around.
    /edit Didn't some British politician say publicly that those "guarantees" were meaningless?

    I wouldn't even go there. They are indeed legally binding, sure they are unnesscessary in the context of the treaty that is on the table but there is a good reasoning for that. They were give to clear up the LIES of the last campaign that were as it turns out wholely unrelated to Lisbon.


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    #120
    Hagar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,793 ✭✭✭✭Hagar


    turgon wrote: »
    No its not in dispute. However the will of the electorate will also be consulted again. Given that the referendum is merely a method by which to determine the will of the people, saying the second referendum is somehow illegitimate is saying the will of the people this year is illegitimate.

    So now the truth emerges: your not against a second referendum for some high minded democratic ideal but rather because you fear the Yes side will win.


    The truth was never hidden. I said I don't care about the outcome, and that is the simple truth. It will have no effect whatsoever on me or my life. I just don't agree with the Govt asking the electorate twice. I didn't vote NO last time, in fact I didn't vote at all, I'm a French resident. I just abhor the arrogance of the Irish Govt treating the Irish people like children.

    The fact is people are scared ****less and there will be an overwhelming landslide for YES this time around. If you think Intel will stay because there was a YES vote you are mistaken. They, and others like them, have no loyalty to Ireland. Cheap Eastern European labour is all they are interested in.


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    #121
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    Hagar wrote: »
    I just don't agree with the Govt asking the electorate twice.

    You have failed to come up with a reason for this.

    You only claim was that is disrespected the wishes of the people, which is untrue because the second referendum will directly represent the wishes of the people.


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