The UK is Finished!! Consequences for Ireland

creeper1

Jim Rodgers has been saying for a long time that the UK is finished and I tend to agree with him.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaxV0qyaUMo&feature=related

Firstly do you think he is right? His premise is that the UK has only two things to sell the rest of the world. The first being the North Sea Oil which is running out . THe second being that the city of London as a financial centre which is only a shadow of its formal self.

I think he has some good points here. I agree with his assesment.

Now I don't care about the UK economy. I don't like the county and I don't like the people. However I can't escape the fact that the UK is Ireland's biggest trading partner. It might not be good for us when they go broke.

THe bottom line I think is that in the future Ireland will have to increase it's trading with Europe and the rest of the world. The UK will become increasingly irrelevant as time goes on.

amacachi

Some excellent sweeping generalisations in your post, thanks for those.

The UK isn't finished.

ejmaztec

creeper1 wrote: »

Jim Rodgers has been saying for a long time that the UK is finished and I tend to agree with him.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaxV0qyaUMo&feature=related

Firstly do you think he is right? His premise is that the UK has only two things to sell the rest of the world. The first being the North Sea Oil which is running out . THe second being that the city of London as a financial centre which is only a shadow of its formal self.

I think he has some good points here. I agree with his assesment.

Now I don't care about the UK economy. I don't like the county and I don't like the people. However I can't escape the fact that the UK is Ireland's biggest trading partner. It might not be good for us when they go broke.

THe bottom line I think is that in the future Ireland will have to increase it's trading with Europe and the rest of the world. The UK will become increasingly irrelevant as time goes on.

:rolleyes:

creeper1

amacachi wrote: »

Some excellent sweeping generalisations in your post, thanks for those.

The UK isn't finished.

Yes it is. 100 percent true. They are finished. This just hot off the press.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jul/22/recession-uk-recovery-2014-national-debt

blastman

creeper1 wrote: »

Jim Rodgers has been saying for a long time that the UK is finished and I tend to agree with him.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaxV0qyaUMo&feature=related

Firstly do you think he is right? His premise is that the UK has only two things to sell the rest of the world. The first being the North Sea Oil which is running out . THe second being that the city of London as a financial centre which is only a shadow of its formal self.

I think he has some good points here. I agree with his assesment.

Now I don't care about the UK economy. I don't like the county and I don't like the people. However I can't escape the fact that the UK is Ireland's biggest trading partner. It might not be good for us when they go broke.

THe bottom line I think is that in the future Ireland will have to increase it's trading with Europe and the rest of the world. The UK will become increasingly irrelevant as time goes on.

Gee, ya think (ever)?

ronbyrne2005

Sterling will devalue making them more competitive and manufacturing will return. Tourism and entertainment is big in uk and finance isnt going away.

cyclopath2001

creeper1 wrote: »

Yes it is. 100 percent true. They are finished. This just hot off the press.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jul/22/recession-uk-recovery-2014-national-debt

The word 'finished' does not appear anywhere in the article?

Fat_Fingers

creeper1 wrote: »

THe bottom line I think is that in the future Ireland will have to increase it's trading with Europe and the rest of the world. The UK will become increasingly irrelevant as time goes on.

Easier said then done.. Trade what? Potatoes and beef? And lets not kid ourself about "knowledge economy". There is no knowledge economy here. Most of it has moved or is in the process of moving to East. What we have is a few pharmaceuticals that are here only for tax breaks.
You can never import "knowledge economy" in long term, it has to be homegrown.

ei.sdraob

ronbyrne2005 wrote: »

Sterling will devalue making them more competitive and manufacturing will return. Tourism and entertainment is big in uk and finance isnt going away.

yes and no

you are ignoring the bad sides of devaluation, and that is every produc and service from outside the economy (energy, raw materials, goods from countries outside the UK etc) become more expensive

if this good or service can be produced in UK then it causes a positive effect, examples could be growing potatoes, making chicken curry in restaurant

now think what happens for goods that cant be produced in UK or cant be produced in UK to meed the demands of the economy, examples could be oranges, diamonds, gold, gas and so on

imho UK is bankrupt they are printing money (quantitative easing euphemism) in order to finance the government (public sector and welfare) now think of what will happen when this money enters economy? yep inflation or worse and poof goes your competitiveness

here in Ireland we are doing the right things and cutting costs (welfare public sector) and raising taxes

printing money wont address the underlying issues and only delay the inevitable

sorry for long post but i can go on and on

btw they were bankrupt for some time, its just everyone is still in denial and gives UK benefit of doubt

http://cynicuseconomicus.blogspot.com/2009/02/its-official-uk-government-is-now.html

hiorta

Whether 'finished' or not, it certainly is a spent force.
'Britain' per se, was solely a lucrative prop for English values and English interests, with the other inferior elements being ruthlessly exploited.

The make-up of these islands can be reformed in other ways ie. the Celtic elements are probably the numerical superiors, if that would be of any use.

The Saxons (lower Germans) are more naturally in affinity with Continental thinking, but are dismissed by them, hence the desire to prove themselves as good, if not better.

Where and how a different line-up would help in the current self-inflicted situation is hard to say, but real education seems to be a glaring priority.

But, serious change is needed, perhaps all elements assuming full independence and responsibility for their own actions and welfare.

IKOS

creeper1 wrote: »

Jim Rodgers has been saying for a long time that the UK is finished and I tend to agree with him.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaxV0qyaUMo&feature=related

Firstly do you think he is right? His premise is that the UK has only two things to sell the rest of the world. The first being the North Sea Oil which is running out . THe second being that the city of London as a financial centre which is only a shadow of its formal self.

I think he has some good points here. I agree with his assesment.

Now I don't care about the UK economy. I don't like the county and I don't like the people. However I can't escape the fact that the UK is Ireland's biggest trading partner. It might not be good for us when they go broke.

THe bottom line I think is that in the future Ireland will have to increase it's trading with Europe and the rest of the world. The UK will become increasingly irrelevant as time goes on.

I doubt this. Do you really believe this? Nice generalisation too.

The UK has something like the 6th biggest economy in the world. They will come out of this alot better than us without a doubt. The main reason being that they have control over their own currency.

ps if you cant get along with anyone out of 61 million people you know its probably not them thats the problem

eamonnm79

Economic prediction from the UK
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predicted that it will take another five years until income per head has returned to the level seen before the recession started in the second quarter of 2008"

Economic prediction from Ireland
"If these reforms happen, and the world economy recovers momentum in 2011, the ESRI believes economic growth in Ireland between 2011 and 2015 could be rapid.

Unemployment could be reduced from a peak of 17% next year, to around 7% by 2015, it adds.

But it says it will still take until the middle of the next decade for output to return to 2007 levels"

Thats right 2025!
We are way more vulnerable than the UK.

The UK is way too big to fail!

They could pull out of Afganistan and save billions if the going gets really tough.

The UK has huge weapons exports that the original commentator seems to forget.

ei.sdraob

Deleted User wrote: »

The UK has something like the 6th biggest economy in the world. They will come out of this alot better than us without a doubt. The main reason being that they have control over their own currency.

ps if you cant get along with anyone out of 61 million people you know its probably not them thats the problem

thats down from 4th biggest not too long ago (they were behind us, japan and germany)

eamonnm79 wrote: »

The UK is way too big to fail!

werent they saying that about certain banks last year...

jmayo

creeper1 wrote: »

Jim Rodgers has been saying for a long time that the UK is finished and I tend to agree with him.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaxV0qyaUMo&feature=related

Firstly do you think he is right? His premise is that the UK has only two things to sell the rest of the world. The first being the North Sea Oil which is running out . THe second being that the city of London as a financial centre which is only a shadow of its formal self.

I think he has some good points here. I agree with his assesment.

Now I don't care about the UK economy. I don't like the county and I don't like the people. However I can't escape the fact that the UK is Ireland's biggest trading partner. It might not be good for us when they go broke.

THe bottom line I think is that in the future Ireland will have to increase it's trading with Europe and the rest of the world. The UK will become increasingly irrelevant as time goes on.

This ranks up there with your assumption that Germany has to bail us out, since they owe us for joining the Euro :rolleyes: (see other thread on german bailout).
If they have only two things to offer the world then what the f*** have we got ?
Jeeze you reckon it might not be good for us if our biggest and nearest trading partner went belly up ? :rolleyes:

So we have to increase trading links with Europe (i.e. really the EU countries), this would be the same EU that you feel owe us, the same EU you don't want to expand into the third world nations in the East ?

I thought I was bad about who I don't like, but you don't like all 60 odd million of them ?
BTW do you support an English soccer team by any chance ?

Deleted User wrote: »

The UK has something like the 6th biggest economy in the world. They will come out of this alot better than us without a doubt. The main reason being that they have control over their own currency.

ps if you cant get along with anyone out of 61 million people you know its probably not them thats the problem

It's all their fault.

ragg

Like others have said, the UK won't fail. It is however in a very long period of recession - just as we are. Both our economies were built on the same house of cards.

Both countries will come out of the recession stronger - with more sustainable growth

For our part, we are taking the pain now, cutting expenditure, reforms of the public sector (hopefully), higher taxes, investing in the right areas - even with all this our export market has stayed almost constant.

The UK are in a position that they can print money, but they can also raise interest rates when that becomes an issue & they can restore competitveness by devaluing the £ - where as we have to take pretty harsh measures like cutting the minimum wage.

In summary, we are both screwed now, but its only temporary

ei.sdraob

ragg wrote: »

Like others have said, the UK won't fail. It is however in a very long period of recession - just as we are. Both our economies were built on the same house of cards.

Both countries will come out of the recession stronger - with more sustainable growth

For our part, we are taking the pain now, cutting expenditure, reforms of the public sector (hopefully), higher taxes, investing in the right areas - even with all this our export market has stayed almost constant.

The UK are in a position that they can print money, but they can also raise interest rates when that becomes an issue & they can restore competitveness by devaluing the £ - where as we have to take pretty harsh measures like cutting the minimum wage.

In summary, we are both screwed now, but its only temporary

considering that welfare and minimum wage are much higher here than UK

i wouldn't call cutting these down as "harsh"

mike65

creeper1 wrote: »

Now I don't care about the UK economy. I don't like the county and I don't like the people.

However I can't escape the fact that the UK is Ireland's biggest trading partner. It might not be good for us when they go broke .

I'll let those words speak for themselves. :rolleyes:

ragg

ei.sdraob wrote: »

considering that welfare and minimum wage are much higher here than UK

i wouldn't call cutting these down as "harsh"

I would, we don't really deal in the business of low end manufacturing where by people earn less then €350 a week to work on production lines.. If we were to go down that road, we would never be able to compete with the east. Cheap, low end manufaturing in this part of the world is finished.
The minimum wage at the level it is now, is keeping families in homes and people off the streets. A complete property market crash is unthinkable - That is what will happen if we force people to lose their assets just because they lost their jobs

ei.sdraob

ragg wrote: »

I would, we don't really deal in the business of low end manufacturing where by people earn less then €350 a week to work on production lines.. If we were to go down that road, we would never be able to compete with the east. Cheap, low end manufaturing in this part of the world is finished.
The minimum wage at the level it is now, is keeping families in homes and people off the streets. A complete property market crash is unthinkable - That is what will happen if we force people to lose their assets just because they lost their jobs

what about cheaper services?

millions of citizens voting with their feet and traveling across the border to do shopping, is not happening right??

ardmacha

In recent years UK had an unsustainable bubble which delivered growth of 3-3.5%, we had an unsustainable bubble which delivered growth rates of 5-6%.
In both cases 3 years of growth are gone (15% and 9%) and living standards in 2015 will be about the same as 2003. Some the UK problems are masked by currency devaluations and the like, whereas in Ireland they are manifest in declining wages and prices. But some of the almost racist comment coming from London earlier implied that Ireland was uniquely a basket case, whereas we share the same anglo-saxon finance model and the UK is not any better off, they just haven't faced up to the facts. At least in Ireland we had it very good for while and we now know there is a problem.

ragg

And have companies not reacted? reports yesterday suggest that 20% has been knocked of grocery prices in this country..
The reason? people voted with their feet. Don't confuse profiteering with high costs.

A good example of recent profiteering is sky box office programs - look at the differece betweeen costs in the UK & Ireland - is that because we are higher costs? No, its the exact same service, same everything. Big UK corporations just like to charge the paddys more

ei.sdraob

ragg wrote: »

And have companies not reacted? reports yesterday suggest that 20% has been knocked of grocery prices in this country..
The reason? people voted with their feet. Don't confuse profiteering with high costs.

A good example of recent profiteering is sky box office programs - look at the differece betweeen costs in the UK & Ireland - is that because we are higher costs? No, its the exact same service, same everything. Big UK corporations just like to charge the paddys more

but there comes a point when you cant cut costs more

tesco this side of the border would pay more for shelf stackers than the other side thanks to minimum wage

what happens when you cant lower costs more due to restrictions?

ragg

That equiblibrium point will hit every business at some point - does that mean to make themselves more competitive they should just cut salaries?
Of course not. The real difference in minimum wage is only an issue now anyway due to the weak sterling, at its normal rate the difference is only about a £1.

Our barriers aren't the price we pay our staff, its the energy costs, the ancillary taxes. In fact, our people are probably our main strength

ejmaztec

ragg wrote: »

And have companies not reacted? reports yesterday suggest that 20% has been knocked of grocery prices in this country..
The reason? people voted with their feet. Don't confuse profiteering with high costs.

A good example of recent profiteering is sky box office programs - look at the differece betweeen costs in the UK & Ireland - is that because we are higher costs? No, its the exact same service, same everything. Big UK corporations just like to charge the paddys more

As do small, medium and large Irish corporations, that have been skinning people alive in Ireland a hell of a lot longer, mainly due to lack of competition and captive consumers.

mike65

I suspect a few here have an agenda that is not driven by matters fiscal or economic.

ei.sdraob

ragg wrote: »

That equiblibrium point will hit every business at some point - does that mean to make themselves more competitive they should just cut salaries?
Of course not. The real difference in minimum wage is only an issue now anyway due to the weak sterling, at its normal rate the difference is only about a £1.

Our barriers aren't the price we pay our staff, its the energy costs, the ancillary taxes. In fact, our people are probably our main strength

being competitive means having lower costs than your competition and/or higher productivity

now since the shelf packers here are not more productive (get more work done in same time than UK counterparts) but wage costs cant be lowered, hence the prices cant be lowered and we end up with higher prices > rip off ireland

now you see what minimum wage does?

btw energy costs are high because we dont have energy resources such as north sea oil and gas to keep prices of these low, you want to cut energy costs? build a nuclear plant, cheap consistent energy, but no we in ireland dont want anything nucular neither do we want to cut minimum wage to something more like the rest of EU

hence why our costs will stay high and we will be continued to be ripped off

femur61

creeper1 wrote: »

I think he has some good points here. I agree with his assesment.

Now I don't care about the UK economy. I don't like the county and I don't like the people. .

I have never heard such tripe in all my life.

ragg

Yes but blaming the high costs in stores such as tesco on staff isn't warrented to my mind.
i don't care how we generate electricity once it is cheaper. my point is, is that our people costs are only marginally over the rest of developed europe.
That diamond company in shannon paid almost €16 an hour. Blaming staff costs is a cop out, considering the they were paying almost double the minumum wage.
To my mind we have a lot of other places to look at reducing costs before we look at the minimum wages - especailly energy costs & the insane amout of stealth taxes & penalties the government put on business inthis country.

Anywho - its seems we have dragged this WAAAAAAY off topic

ei.sdraob

ragg wrote: »

Yes but blaming the high costs in stores such as tesco on staff isn't warrented to my mind.
i don't care how we generate electricity once it is cheaper. my point is, is that our people costs are only marginally over the rest of developed europe.
That diamond company in shannon paid almost €16 an hour. Blaming staff costs is a cop out, considering the they were paying almost double the minumum wage.
To my mind we have a lot of other places to look at reducing costs before we look at the minimum wages - especailly energy costs & the insane amout of stealth taxes & penalties the government put on business inthis country.

Anywho - its seems we have dragged this WAAAAAAY off topic

yes it has gone offtopic, continue it here please

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055629586

Noffles

The initial post seems to be more about not liking the UK and it's people and hoping it's going to "break" than about the recession both countries are facing...

Personally being British I find the post offensive and pathetic, sadly seems to be the consensus of quite a few Irish people.