The UK is Finished!! Consequences for Ireland

ei.sdraob

Noffles wrote: »

The initial post seems to be more about not liking the UK and it's people and hoping it's going to "break" than about the recession both countries are facing...

Personally being British I find the post offensive and pathetic, sadly seems to be the consensus of quite a few Irish people.

schadenfreude is the word

I see it alot on UK forums when it comes to discussing Irish economic troubles

its a 2 way hate it seems

Noffles

ei.sdraob wrote: »

schadenfreude is the word

I see it alot on UK forums when it comes to discussing Irish economic troubles

its a 2 way hate it seems

There probably is, I haven't seen or looked for it though, just commenting on what I read here..

I also like the word Schadenfreude, it means bad friend or something doesn't it?

jmayo

ragg wrote: »

Like others have said, the UK won't fail. It is however in a very long period of recession - just as we are. Both our economies were built on the same house of cards.

Both countries will come out of the recession stronger - with more sustainable growth

For our part, we are taking the pain now, cutting expenditure, reforms of the public sector (hopefully), higher taxes, investing in the right areas - even with all this our export market has stayed almost constant.

The UK are in a position that they can print money, but they can also raise interest rates when that becomes an issue & they can restore competitveness by devaluing the £ - where as we have to take pretty harsh measures like cutting the minimum wage.

In summary, we are both screwed now, but its only temporary

I didn't know the UK economy was as dependent on the construction industry as us :rolleyes:
I don't recall them drastically increaing public spending based on the influx of taxes from a construction bubble ?
So how exactly are both our eocnomies built on the same hosue of cards again ?

Actually some of your post reads like a FF ministerial broadcast.
How are we taking the pain now ?
The major cuts in public sector spending have not even been implemented.
They have been proposed alright, but we haven't even seen a 10th of what needs to be done to get our public spending deficit back in line.

Where are we investing in the right areas or are you just regurditating coughlan and ryan (both grade A spanners talking out their ar**s) ?

ragg wrote: »

I would, we don't really deal in the business of low end manufacturing where by people earn less then €350 a week to work on production lines.. If we were to go down that road, we would never be able to compete with the east. Cheap, low end manufaturing in this part of the world is finished.
The minimum wage at the level it is now, is keeping families in homes and people off the streets. A complete property market crash is unthinkable - That is what will happen if we force people to lose their assets just because they lost their jobs

It is not alone low end manufacturing that is suffering or did you fail to notice Eircsson closed development centre in Dublin, Motorolla closed in Cork leaving hundreds of highly skilled engineers and developers out of work.

So we should screw our competitiveness, forcing companies out of business to ensure people keep the properties they paid too much for in the first place.
Are you saying we should base our economy on house prices ?

Why is a complete property crash unthinkable ?
At the moment we are keeping a false economy in terms of our house prices and it is becasue of that nothing is moving propertywise and there is a lot of uncertainty.

ragg wrote: »

That equiblibrium point will hit every business at some point - does that mean to make themselves more competitive they should just cut salaries?
Of course not. The real difference in minimum wage is only an issue now anyway due to the weak sterling, at its normal rate the difference is only about a £1.

Our barriers aren't the price we pay our staff, its the energy costs, the ancillary taxes. In fact, our people are probably our main strength

Our competition has suffered greatly and one of the reaons is increasing labour costs, as well as the other things you mentioned like energy and fuel.

We don't just compete against sterling on the issue of minimum wage.
We compete against the world and in particularl Eastern Europe & Asia.

Jeeze can people ever stop swallowing the BS being fed by government and it's state bodies about how fe**ing great our workforce are.
A big reason for our real celtic tiger was fact that we were cheap not alone in terms of reasonable educated english speaking labourforce, but also in coporation taxes and we were in the EU market.
Our workforce were/are reasonably educated, but for lots of positions we had to import immigrants to fill them.

diverdriver

Noffles, schadenfreude means taking pleasure in another's misfortune. Which the OP appears to be enjoying. Don't be too offended, there is still a rump of Irish people whose distorted version of patriotism involves disliking Britain and the British for all the usual tiresome oft repeated reasons. YAWN! Negative patriotism I call it. You Brits have your own version, I'm sure.


As for the original, the UK isn't finished. It's in trouble to be sure but the British are very good at getting themselves out of trouble. Would that we were the same.


jmayo's post, I completely agree with. It would be hard to better it. I do believe we are in for tough times. Tougher than people realise. People talk about our recovery. I wonder where it'll come from. It can't come from the construction sector. That's screwed. It will come back a bit but the old days of 40 or 50 tower cranes looming over Dublin's skyline are long gone. The builiding trade will never go back to the way it was.


Manufacturing is in decline and had been in decline for some time. The recovery won't come from there. I very much doubt even a significant reduction in wages will save that sector from more cuts. I worked for a major medical devices manufacturer once. The pay was rubbish. Many people had second jobs to keep themselves going. But right now, the word on the inside is that their new manager is desperatley trying to cut costs further in order to prevent head office from closing the operation and moving it somewhere cheaper. This is a big operation too.
There is a lot of talk of 'high end' jobs being created for graduates. That always annoys me. Most people can't do 'high end' jobs. Most people need low end jobs. Even during the 'Tiger' years many of these 'high end' jobs went to migrants because we didn't have the skill base.

A big reason for our real celtic tiger was fact that we were cheap not alone in terms of reasonable educated english speaking labourforce, but also in coporation taxes and we were in the EU market.

That is so true. Worse still, all too often many of these jobs were filled by migrants because the Irish were simply not available and frankly in my experience the migrants worked harder.



One thing, I don't understand is the enthusiasm for high taxes by some of the posters here. Exactly how are you going to stimulate an economy by taking earned money off people? If there was any lesson learned from the original manufacturing based tiger economy is that low taxes generate more taxes for the simple reason that people with money spend it more. The more the government lowered taxes the greater the revenue from tax. High taxes have a depressing effect on the economy. Many people are already on lower incomes, taking more off them in tax simply reduces the amount they spend in the economy. It's a vicious circle.



I seriously believe that we in this country do not have the basis for recovery. Where is it coming from? What industry? We have no natural resources. The original reason for the start of the upturn was an influx of multinationals attracted to Ireland. They are now in the process of disengaging. What will replace them?




Ten or twelve years ago when all this started rolling. There was a cynical view among my contemporaries that it would all last about ten years. All of us had seen the not so good times and I thought perhaps they were a bit pessimistic. Turns out they were right. I got a job in one of the big multinationals back then. The younger guys and girls were shocked at the attitude of some older people that the plant would be gone in ten years. Actually they were wrong, it was seven years.




I remember telling some of the younger people I worked with the enjoy those times. 'These are the good old days, enjoy them, They won't last'. They didn't believe me. But boy, do I seem like a prophet now.:(

ragg

I don't have the time nor inclanation to respond to all that - pop it in bullet points, and i'll have a look

diverdriver

Diddums there you are. Is that easier?:p

jmayo

ragg wrote: »

I don't have the time nor inclanation to respond to all that - pop it in bullet points, and i'll have a look

Brian is that yourself ?
Yep concise nice little slogans and bullet points...
How about ...

• we are building a knowledge economy
• we are investing in a smart green economy
• we have a highly skilled workforce better than everyone else
• we are so special that we must maintain high house prices in order to protect people's investments

Is that more what you had in mind ?

johnathan woss

I feel Britain is in deeper long term trouble than us for one simple reason .... it is more densely populated and cannot feed itself.

However, where do you think some of that population will look to move to ?

Aaron1

diverdriver wrote: »

Noffles, schadenfreude means taking pleasure in another's misfortune. Which the OP appears to be enjoying. Don't be too offended, there is still a rump of Irish people whose distorted version of patriotism involves disliking Britain and the British for all the usual tiresome oft repeated reasons. YAWN! Negative patriotism I call it. You Brits have your own version, I'm sure.


As for the original, the UK isn't finished. It's in trouble to be sure but the British are very good at getting themselves out of trouble. Would that we were the same.


jmayo's post, I completely agree with. It would be hard to better it. I do believe we are in for tough times. Tougher than people realise. People talk about our recovery. I wonder where it'll come from. It can't come from the construction sector. That's screwed. It will come back a bit but the old days of 40 or 50 tower cranes looming over Dublin's skyline are long gone. The builiding trade will never go back to the way it was.


Manufacturing is in decline and had been in decline for some time. The recovery won't come from there. I very much doubt even a significant reduction in wages will save that sector from more cuts. I worked for a major medical devices manufacturer once. The pay was rubbish. Many people had second jobs to keep themselves going. But right now, the word on the inside is that their new manager is desperatley trying to cut costs further in order to prevent head office from closing the operation and moving it somewhere cheaper. This is a big operation too.
There is a lot of talk of 'high end' jobs being created for graduates. That always annoys me. Most people can't do 'high end' jobs. Most people need low end jobs. Even during the 'Tiger' years many of these 'high end' jobs went to migrants because we didn't have the skill base.


That is so true. Worse still, all too often many of these jobs were filled by migrants because the Irish were simply not available and frankly in my experience the migrants worked harder.



One thing, I don't understand is the enthusiasm for high taxes by some of the posters here. Exactly how are you going to stimulate an economy by taking earned money off people? If there was any lesson learned from the original manufacturing based tiger economy is that low taxes generate more taxes for the simple reason that people with money spend it more. The more the government lowered taxes the greater the revenue from tax. High taxes have a depressing effect on the economy. Many people are already on lower incomes, taking more off them in tax simply reduces the amount they spend in the economy. It's a vicious circle.



I seriously believe that we in this country do not have the basis for recovery. Where is it coming from? What industry? We have no natural resources. The original reason for the start of the upturn was an influx of multinationals attracted to Ireland. They are now in the process of disengaging. What will replace them?




Ten or twelve years ago when all this started rolling. There was a cynical view among my contemporaries that it would all last about ten years. All of us had seen the not so good times and I thought perhaps they were a bit pessimistic. Turns out they were right. I got a job in one of the big multinationals back then. The younger guys and girls were shocked at the attitude of some older people that the plant would be gone in ten years. Actually they were wrong, it was seven years.




I remember telling some of the younger people I worked with the enjoy those times. 'These are the good old days, enjoy them, They won't last'. They didn't believe me. But boy, do I seem like a prophet now.:(

Good post diverdriver, it is very hard to see where any significant upturn in Ireland will come from. Construction is finished for at least a decade, multinationals are cutting back, and manufacturing has been contracting for a long time.

Disagree with your point about tax however. Lower taxes leading to higher revenue became a mantra that the likes of McCreevy and the PDs kept repeating over the years. It was the phony debt lead construction boom that gave temporary higher revenue, not lower taxes. This year there will be approx 33bn taken in taxes - thats only about 23% of GNP! I don't want to pay more taxes, but the budget deficit will have to be bridged with more taxes as well as cuts.

On the UKs problems, it seems to me that the main consequence for Ireland is around emigration. It is still the place that the jobless are most likely to go to, and that safety valve is not really available at the moment. Unfortunately, if the UK starts to recover, it's back to the 80's for Ireland again.

Ibrahimovic91

johnathan woss wrote: »

I feel Britain is in deeper long term trouble than us for one simple reason .... it is more densely populated and cannot feed itself.

However, where do you think some of that population will look to move to ?

Judging by the numbers I reckon Spain.

RealityCheck

johnathan woss wrote: »

I feel Britain is in deeper long term trouble than us for one simple reason .... it is more densely populated and cannot feed itself.

However, where do you think some of that population will look to move to ?

I dont think I could disagree more, but I suppose stranger things have happened. They are definately not coming here, maybe australia or Canada, like ourselves:p.

RealityCheck

jmayo wrote: »

• we are building a knowledge economy
• we are investing in a smart green economy
• we have a highly skilled workforce better than everyone else
• we are so special that we must maintain high house prices in order to protect people's investments

Its a real pity they didnt actually prepare the economy for such a seismic shift in direction. I think they failed to alert people, like the one time 18 year olds who left education to work on the building sites or the low skilled factory workers who were working in the multinationals. Add that to the fact that there has been a chronic shortage of graduates in science and engineerings courses for years and well the consequences are quite reasonable to expect :rolleyes:. Smart economy for who exactly .

blastman

I love the way politicians, most recently our esteemed Tániste, talk about the knowledge economy like they actually know what it means. I've yet to hear any of them say anything about it beyond the buzzword.

It was plainly obvious to most people with half a brain and one eye open that this bust was coming. I remember having coversations over lunch in the canteen 3-4 years ago as we watched manufacturing jobs go east by the shedload wondering why no-one in government seemed to notice the economy had basically become a giant property pyramid-selling scheme, and precious little else.

maninasia

Healthy and stable economies depends on interlinked factors.
For instance a 'knowledge economy' is built both on manufacturing, R&D and sales channels. Where the govt. and many large govt. led research organisations went wrong is they thought that by funding expensive R&D centres and projects and institutions that this will automatically create world-leading organisations and high paid jobs (actually most of the money just goes into spending on administration of the govt. programs).

A knowledge economy cannot succeed unless it's part of an integrated business strategy. That's why minimum wage being too high IS a problem for the knowledge economy as local and foreign businesses would rather base most of their operations outside of the state and just get govt. funds for as long as the grants last but not really truly develop their business as an Irish organisation giving jobs in manufacturing, quality control, logistics, supplier jobs, sales and marketing jobs in addition to a few highly paid researchers.

I too have seen Ericsson close their base recently and it what it came down too undoubtedly was the engineers were highly paid but not a part of 'core' Ericsson business...it was easy to shut down and reduce the cost as their core business was not based in Ireland. I also know the govt. has given grants a few years ago of 25 million for telecommunication R&D with no result..pfff...gone. Unfortunately the truth is it would be better to abolish many EI and IDA programs and use the money instead to reduce rates and taxes for business. Of course you will never hear Santa campaigning to cancel Xmas..otherwise what would he do?


R&D is not separate from manufacturing nor is sales and marketing. Each feed in to the other. You cannot engineer a good product if you don't have any link the manufacturing base. In the same manner you cannot understand what the market wants if you don't have the experience of selling to the customer. The country needs to develop the SME base and SMEs are excellent in providing a wide range of both low, medium and high paid jobs. What SMEs need more than anything is a lower (read- not lowest, just competitive) cost base to justify putting their core operation in Ireland.

Victor McDade

Noffles wrote: »

The initial post seems to be more about not liking the UK and it's people and hoping it's going to "break" than about the recession both countries are facing...

Personally being British I find the post offensive and pathetic, sadly seems to be the consensus of quite a few Irish people.

I really don't think there are many Irish people with an IQ of 70 or above who have a dislike for Britain, or British people. Everyone else, well, just leave them to it

Victor McDade

creeper1 wrote: »

London as a financial centre which is only a shadow of its formal self.

That's nonsense. London will always be one of the big 3 (with New York and Tokyo) due to its location, it means that the global market is effectively open 24 hours a day. The other European cities trying to develop a financial system at London's expense are Paris and Frankfurt, so far they've not had much success.

ei.sdraob

savemejebas wrote: »

That's nonsense. London will always be one of the big 3 (with New York and Tokyo) due to its location, it means that the global market is effectively open 24 hours a day. The other European cities trying to develop a financial system at London's expense are Paris and Frankfurt, so far they've not had much success.

Never mind them European cities

Shanghai is where its at, China already has 3rd largest economy and still rapidly growing

the ship has sailed to the east it seems and so has the money

Victor McDade

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Never mind them European cities

Shanghai is where its at, China already has 3rd largest economy and still rapidly growing

Not to mention Hong Kong and Singapore...

I agree with what you said there (although I thought China was now No. 2), I was just trying to point out that London's stock market is under no threat due to its location and the fact that other Euro cities aren't doing much of a job in catching up.

kcphoto

Could have been an interesting post and discussion if you hadn't started with such a sweeping and bigoted statement.
Why don't you start your next one with - I hate people but.....

Complete nonsense .....

You won't know when the UK is finished because Ireland will have gone a long time before that!

ei.sdraob

savemejebas wrote: »

Not to mention Hong Kong and Singapore...

I agree with what you said there (although I thought China was now No. 2), I was just trying to point out that London's stock market is under no threat due to its location and the fact that other Euro cities aren't doing much of a job in catching up.

no not yet 2nd but thats the aim for the near future

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jan/14/china-world-economic-growth

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-03/10/content_7559222.htm

ragg

jmayo wrote: »

Brian is that yourself ?
Yep concise nice little slogans and bullet points...
How about ...
· we are building a knowledge economy
· we are investing in a smart green economy
· we have a highly skilled workforce better than everyone else
· we are so special that we must maintain high house prices in order to protect people's investments
Is that more what you had in mind ?

having read back your original post I will address them as best i can in the short amount time I have.

The UK and our situations are very similar. We were both in a massive property bubble with all of our banks over exposed to the property market.
both countries were in a the midst of a massive property bubble - is it a coincidence that northern rock was the first bank to be nationalised??

With regards to our economic outloook - read todays irish times, in fact, i'll post you a link..
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0724/1224251232936.html#postcomment

now to the final point about our people in this country. there is a certain element in Irish society that like to think the vast majority of our population are "Thick Micks" - this simply isn't the case, on any level. my theory on this is that these people are bitter that there 3rd level degree has been utterly devalued and now is nothing more then a prerequisite to get a decent job. It suits a certain agenda to believe that we are the old stereotype.
The fact of the matter is - we have one of the best adult literacy rates in the world.
We have a very large group of 3rd level educated people.
The only reason that sci\tech (where my own degree comes from) is down is that financial services an easier money draw.

My advice would be to cut down on the hyperbole. Be proud of where you come from & stop being such a self loathing Irish man

jmayo

ragg wrote: »

The UK and our situations are very similar. We were both in a massive property bubble with all of our banks over exposed to the property market.

both countries were in a the midst of a massive property bubble - is it a coincidence that northern rock was the first bank to be nationalised??

Yeah but what percentage of the British adult workforce were employed in this one sector ?
Did they ramp up public spending based on vat returns form proeprty and stamp duty ?

ragg wrote: »

now to the final point about our people in this country. there is a certain element in Irish society that like to think the vast majority of our population are "Thick Micks" - this simply isn't the case, on any level. my theory on this is that these people are bitter that there 3rd level degree has been utterly devalued and now is nothing more then a prerequisite to get a decent job. It suits a certain agenda to believe that we are the old stereotype.

The fact of the matter is - we have one of the best adult literacy rates in the world.

We have a very large group of 3rd level educated people.
The only reason that sci\tech (where my own degree comes from) is down is that financial services an easier money draw.

Nobody said we were thick micks or paddies, but you appear to think we are special, that our educated workforce are so much better than the rest of the world.
Also quantity isn't the same a quality in educaiton.
The government embarked on a sequence of events trying to guarantee that more people attended thrid level.
At one stage it was to keep them off the dole.

Another thing that I bet a lot of people on here will relate to, is that a lot of our recently qualified third level graduates are not as hard working as their predecessors.

ragg wrote: »

My advice would be to cut down on the hyperbole. Be proud of where you come from & stop being such a self loathing Irish man

And my advice would be to get out and see the world.

Actually I am finding it very hard to be proud to say I am Irish.
It was actually easier to say it back in the 80s, even though we were seen as terrorists by lot sof people.

Today if you look at this country as an outsider what do you see ?
Perhaps you do see hardworking educated people or perhaps you see a people that got very greedy, have a sense of entitlement, elected governments that blew a great economy through total mismanagement and greed, and are now looking for handouts and bailouts from EU.

And that doesn't even mention the fact that for 60 odd years we had institutionalised state sponsored paedophilia and wholesale child abuse.

femur61

I couln't agree more, well said Jmayo.

johnathan woss

RealityCheck wrote: »

I dont think I could disagree more, but I suppose stranger things have happened. They are definately not coming here, maybe australia or Canada, like ourselves:p.

What do you disagree so strongly with ?

1) That Britain won't be able to feed its current population in the long term

or

2) That this will be a problem

RealityCheck

johnathan woss wrote: »

What do you disagree so strongly with ?

1) That Britain won't be able to feed its current population in the long term

or

2) That this will be a problem

Yes both really. I really cant see them having any more of a problem than we will have, I dont see in this situation how population density comes into it. I mean look at Ireland in the 50s, it was not densely populated and still the country was in poverty.

johnathan woss

RealityCheck wrote: »

Yes both really. I really cant see them having any more of a problem than we will have, I dont see in this situation how population density comes into it. I mean look at Ireland in the 50s, it was not densely populated and still the country was in poverty.

You don't think a country not being able to feed itself is a problem ?
Could you please explain that one to me ?

ChocolateSauce

I think everyone should just ignore this thread. It's extremely stupid.

RealityCheck

johnathan woss wrote: »

You don't think a country not being able to feed itself is a problem ?
Could you please explain that one to me ?

What the hell are you on about??. I dont agree with any point you are making. I dont see it as a problem as I have absolutely no idea what you are basing such rubbish on. I wasnt aware Britain is in famine at the moment .

johnathan woss

RealityCheck wrote: »

What the hell are you on about??. I dont agree with any point you are making. I dont see it as a problem as I have absolutely no idea what you are basing such rubbish on. I wasnt aware Britain is in famine at the moment .

Why don't you do some research then instead of losing your temper.

A simple google search brought up this:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2008/may/11/foodanddrink.food

"British farmers and growers now produce only 60 per cent of the food we eat "

RealityCheck

johnathan woss wrote: »

Why don't you do some research then instead of losing your temper.

A simple google search brought up this:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2008/may/11/foodanddrink.food

"British farmers and growers now produce only 60 per cent of the food we eat "

I'd hardly think thats evidence to suggest any potential mass starvation. Wow they import 40% of what they eat, big deal. I mean it would be near impossible to expect that percentage to be much higher. Thats a reasonable percentage considering that a lot of british grown food is more expensive than much of the imported food stuffs.

Actually out of curiosity how much Irish food is imported?, I could not find a percentage given for it?