The UK is Finished!! Consequences for Ireland

nessie911

creeper1 wrote: »

However I can't escape the fact that the UK is Ireland's biggest trading partner. It might not be good for us when they go broke.

See to be honest I think you should be more concerned with the fact that Ireland is broke, we are burrowing 460000 a week, how long do you realy think that we can continue to do this.

England has had two quators of positive growth, what has Ireland, NOT a cent of positive growth.

ei.sdraob

nessie911 wrote: »

See to be honest I think you should be more concerned with the fact that Ireland is broke, we are burrowing 460000 a week, how long do you realy think that we can continue to do this.

England has had two quators of positive growth, what has Ireland, NOT a cent of positive growth.

hahahahaha

positive growth? 2 quarters?? really

please share the figures

eagerly awaiting

Time Magazine

This thread really fails.

TheBouldNaoise

Total ****e. We are expected to listen with any credibility to bankers and pundits whose greed and amorality got us into this mess. They haven't got a clue what they are talking about now, no more than they had 3 years ago.

We are in such an unholy mess in Ireland that if the UK goes down the pan, the effect on our fcuked up, corrupt banana republic will be marginal.

Chill out, don't worry, go with the flow.:D

Libertyed

I quite agree with your statement, The UK sterling will be devalued, to bring about cheaper goods, and yes they have the tourism. not like Ireland, we sold ourself when we hooked with the Euro. God help Ireland, if the IMF pulls the plug, and especially if the Euro takes a beating. The US dollar is showing weakness, and this is a major worry for all.

hiorta

""We are expected to listen with any credibility to bankers and pundits whose greed and amorality got us into this mess. "" TheBouldNaoise.


Greedy they are, no doubt. But, didn't they merely cater to a greater greed?

The lesson here MUST be learned for posterity - where did this greed originate? Was it sown and nurtured by subtle forces outwith Ireland who perhaps were more than a little envious?

Whatever the cause, Irish traditional values of thrift and modest caution would have been enough to negate it.
It seems utterly incredible that a country which imports virtually all of its 'luxury' goods would abandon all common sense for financial oblivion.

The need to salvage what can be salvaged is firmly in the hands of each individual - what others do is a matter for them. Whether they sink or swim will do the Irish no favours - it is what the irish do, how they respond to and above all, what lessons are gleaned from the debacle - that will determine the future to a large extent.

Judgement Day

creeper1 wrote: »

Seems like someone needs to get a life. What the hell you doing tracking my posting patterns.:rolleyes:

If you must know I am true to my own advice. Unfortunately I have left Ireland and I can't see any return possible.

That's right I now work and live in Asia. South Korea to be exact. I type this message from Malaysia which I am visiting.

The future is Asia. Sorry guys the truth is the whole of the West is finished.

To quote Buzz Lightyear in Toy Story (1995) 'You are a sad, strange little man, and you have my pity. '

nessie911

[quote=ei.sdraob;61419109)

positive growth? 2 quarters?? really

please share the figures

eagerly awaiting[/quote]


I dont have the figures as i could not be arsed looking them up, but it was announced on the news about two weeks ago...

Also did anyone see the prime time special that was on about two or three months ago where they were going around to different countries news and seeing what they were saying about ireland.

They all taught that the way the Irish government were reacting to the problem was a joke. There was one country the news reader was actuly laughing, laughing hard.

We are the biggest jokes in europe, not england.

AMIIAM

Regarding the future,any young person with a modicum of sense woul be learning to speak Mandarin. The West and Capitalism is finished.

getz

AMIIAM wrote: »

Regarding the future,any young person with a modicum of sense woul be learning to speak Mandarin. The West and Capitalism is finished.

all chinese schools teach english as a second language,

AMIIAM

Are you missing the point?. English as the world's first language is on the wane. Asia is the world's next major economy whether the West likes it or not!

fintonie

Governments have been about a long time now for us the people to put in place a stable society with good education good health facilities good infrastructure, and what a great job they have done, we have debaters running the country none of them have the business acumen to run a large business never mind the country, running the country is the same as running a business, its time to let the business men take control and the debaters to step aside if its not to late already.

Libertyed

Yes, would have to agree with some of your sentiments regarding the future of the west.

As your aware, the west is suffering big time with the lost of manufacturing to the east. The reason for this is "Cheap Labour" or should I say, "Slave Labour" The west has lost its edge because of high labour cost, our goverment here in Ireland were riding the gravy train for the last 10 years, Lying, about the economy growth. The would not listen to real economist, but hired their own cronie friends to give them advise, and special consutant agencies, that bled the Irish State.

Real economist; meaning David McWilliams...

So what now, very simple. Get rid of the old boys club in goverment, (F.F/F.G/Lab/ & the little green party who lost all reality, and commen sence approach in seeing what was happening to the country.... These idots we call Ministers of goverment, are only messengers for the corporate world?

Get ready, for Lisbon again, the Irish have already lost there constituional rights, because we again have to vote on something that we voted on, and it was "No" but our goverment knows what's right for the irish citizen, and they want us to vote again. So here's my question... Who really are the puppets? the Irish citizen or the messengers who sit in the irish goverment seats, who are over paid, over weight, and an overhauled?

David McWilliams: Irish Economy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVmLZWVdp7U[/URL]

Fratton Fred

China's economy is growing because they are producing goods at very low cost.

If the west is bankrupt, who is china going to sell to?

jmayo

creeper1 wrote: »

Seems like someone needs to get a life. What the hell you doing tracking my posting patterns.:rolleyes:

If you must know I am true to my own advice. Unfortunately I have left Ireland and I can't see any return possible.

That's right I now work and live in Asia. South Korea to be exact. I type this message from Malaysia which I am visiting.

The future is Asia. Sorry guys the truth is the whole of the West is finished.

I know I should but I can't help myself :mad:
It is you who needs to get a life.
You are visiting another country and what are you doing?
You are posting on the freaking internet :eek:

Oh BTW I do agree the Asian economies is where most growth is going to be in the future and eventually China will get to become the new Korea or Japan.
Then they will have no longer the very cheap production and that will move elsewhere.

Now get off the internet and go find a woman FFS

Libertyed

Yes, China, and India are growing with cheap inferior products with slave labour. The working conditions in some of these places, and are been produced by chidren under the age of 10 years, with horrible working standards. We in the west are consummed by these inferior products. If the west wakes up and stops buying cheap products then the west will start manufacturing again with better products that will last for some time.

That's why we need to control labour cost, here in the west, and the corporate world needs to think quality and fairer profits, and have some social consicence for its people.

getz

AMIIAM wrote: »

Are you missing the point?. English as the world's first language is on the wane. Asia is the world's next major economy whether the West likes it or not!

no it isent china in its self speaks a large number of languages as well as mandarin,cantonese and many other dialecs, only the character written language of using thousands of ideographic symbols /characters/this makes it hard when trading with other countries ,if you ever go to china you will now find english words on signs and usage ,this could be partly from the influence of hong kongs six million english speakers. china now depends on exports,when as the USA restricts the amount of chinese imports,or as europe did last year put a quota on clothing imports, china catches a cold,japan is much the same ,all potential university students have to learn a level of english before being excepted.if you dont believe go to haworth in yorkshire [home o the bronte family]and see the large number of chinese and japanese walking round, then talk to the young japanese girl who works in the tourist office

book smarts

The Economist wrote: »

This thread really fails.

Because it isn't full of obfuscatory jargon that only you and the exclusive old boys club of PhDs can understand?

graduate

Because it isn't full of obfuscatory jargon that only you and the exclusive old boys club of PhDs can understand?

PhDs aren't an old boys club. Anyone with an honours degree can spend 3 or 4 years getting one. Of course people in a hurry can just spout their thesis on boards, without any need to cite sources or actually structure a logical argument.

Yixian

It's true the UK is finished:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/209953

This doesn't have to affect Ireland in any way. You might see Scotland leaving the union sometime soon and I'd advise establishing strong links with them - after oil they'd have rights to most of that oil.

Ireland needs to avoid following the British model of funding a country with an unregulated, shallow finance sector.

Science and diplomacy would be a better route for Ireland. Science is a never-ending industry that benefits everyone, that's obvious, just pick the right fields eg. green energy, computing etc. and you can't really go wrong.

And diplomacy - British diplomatic power is now just a few years from collapse and there is room for a neutral country like Ireland to take it's place, this time not just as a link between Europe and the US but a link between Europe and India/China.

Now if you put a human rights/international law emphasis on that push for a strong Irish diplomatic corps you can start to turn Dublin into an international capital by convincing people like MSF, the Red Cross, the EU and Un to set up shop with minor HQs in the city.

Bobs your uncle, homegrown industry and secured international importance. Ireland can benefit from the demise of Britain more than anyone.

If Scotland secedes the chances of regaining the North go up by oh... 10000000%? Half of the country's loyalists are ulster scots, these people have a hard enough time holding onto their "British" identity as it is, what would they have to hold on to if their homeland became independent?! You can bet the formation of a united Ireland would spark a lot of enthusiasm both at home and abroad - Belfast and Dublin would make a killer duo. Belfast is a world class city waiting to happen and it's not going to achieve that while part of the UK, the Brits don't spend a penny on anything outside of London, let alone across the Irish Sea - you think they care about keeping NI? There are Brits that don't even realise NI is still part of their country, if it wasn't for those rabid unionists up there the UK would have washed it's hands of the place long ago, there's really not much interest in keeping it over in Britain.

Libertyed

Nice Idea friend,

However, Scotland seceding from what was Great Britain, will not happen.

Reasons been, to many years of long history, and Scotland still has its ties of the last piece of the commenwealth. Sorry this will not happen and why it will not happen...

England owns to much of what Scotland has, it's oil wells of the north sea... building structures and landscape of the Scotland and has a hands in the gas fields around the Irish shores.

So to think England, will allow Scotland to secede from its borders, its a fantasy... and why would Scotland what to leave England in the first place?

Scotland still has it's own identity and values, and Scotland payes its taxes to England, just like Ireland pays taxes for ground rents of the many historics buildings and lands in the Republic today, including gas and oil wells from around the coast of Ireland.

Now the other idea, of Ireland been a go between for Europe and Asia, is not a bad Idea, and why.


Well our country Knows adversity at first hand. Up untill the year 1922 we where under the crown of then, Great Britain. As we all know to well from history that tells us, Great Britain, or Rule Britannia, amassed such amounts of wealth through plunder, raping, and occupying the various countires of the world through the centuries...

So whats has this got to do with your point, of Ireland been a "Science and diplomacy would be a better route for Ireland"

Simple, We know adversity, and we know diplomacy, and how to use it for the common good of the wealthy landlords of the world, this includes the fat cats in Brussels. :rolleyes:

So Yixian.

My suggestion to you is, learn some history of the these isles.

The idea of the EEC, is to bring about no borders in the countries of Europe? Thats the plan behind, it's foundation... "No Borders"
So, England, Scotland, Nortern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, and the rest of the continent of Europe is to be united, with no borders, just like the United States, and boy thats a scary thought :cool:

P.S.

Yes, Dublin, and Belfast are great cities to visit, and so are many other cities around these isles of our ours, Meaning; Ireland, Scotland, Wales, and England... So why not stop over, and we'll have a pint on it




********************************************************

Yixian wrote: »

It's true the UK is finished:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/209953

This doesn't have to affect Ireland in any way. You might see Scotland leaving the union sometime soon and I'd advise establishing strong links with them - after oil they'd have rights to most of that oil.

Ireland needs to avoid following the British model of funding a country with an unregulated, shallow finance sector.

Science and diplomacy would be a better route for Ireland. Science is a never-ending industry that benefits everyone, that's obvious, just pick the right fields eg. green energy, computing etc. and you can't really go wrong.

And diplomacy - British diplomatic power is now just a few years from collapse and there is room for a neutral country like Ireland to take it's place, this time not just as a link between Europe and the US but a link between Europe and India/China.

Now if you put a human rights/international law emphasis on that push for a strong Irish diplomatic corps you can start to turn Dublin into an international capital by convincing people like MSF, the Red Cross, the EU and Un to set up shop with minor HQs in the city.

Bobs your uncle, homegrown industry and secured international importance. Ireland can benefit from the demise of Britain more than anyone.

If Scotland secedes the chances of regaining the North go up by oh... 10000000%? Half of the country's loyalists are ulster scots, these people have a hard enough time holding onto their "British" identity as it is, what would they have to hold on to if their homeland became independent?! You can bet the formation of a united Ireland would spark a lot of enthusiasm both at home and abroad - Belfast and Dublin would make a killer duo. Belfast is a world class city waiting to happen and it's not going to achieve that while part of the UK, the Brits don't spend a penny on anything outside of London, let alone across the Irish Sea - you think they care about keeping NI? There are Brits that don't even realise NI is still part of their country, if it wasn't for those rabid unionists up there the UK would have washed it's hands of the place long ago, there's really not much interest in keeping it over in Britain.

harsea8

Yixian wrote: »

It's true the UK is finished:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/209953

This doesn't have to affect Ireland in any way. You might see Scotland leaving the union sometime soon and I'd advise establishing strong links with them - after oil they'd have rights to most of that oil.

Ireland needs to avoid following the British model of funding a country with an unregulated, shallow finance sector.

Science and diplomacy would be a better route for Ireland. Science is a never-ending industry that benefits everyone, that's obvious, just pick the right fields eg. green energy, computing etc. and you can't really go wrong.

And diplomacy - British diplomatic power is now just a few years from collapse and there is room for a neutral country like Ireland to take it's place, this time not just as a link between Europe and the US but a link between Europe and India/China.

Now if you put a human rights/international law emphasis on that push for a strong Irish diplomatic corps you can start to turn Dublin into an international capital by convincing people like MSF, the Red Cross, the EU and Un to set up shop with minor HQs in the city.

Bobs your uncle, homegrown industry and secured international importance. Ireland can benefit from the demise of Britain more than anyone.

If Scotland secedes the chances of regaining the North go up by oh... 10000000%? Half of the country's loyalists are ulster scots, these people have a hard enough time holding onto their "British" identity as it is, what would they have to hold on to if their homeland became independent?! You can bet the formation of a united Ireland would spark a lot of enthusiasm both at home and abroad - Belfast and Dublin would make a killer duo. Belfast is a world class city waiting to happen and it's not going to achieve that while part of the UK, the Brits don't spend a penny on anything outside of London, let alone across the Irish Sea - you think they care about keeping NI? There are Brits that don't even realise NI is still part of their country, if it wasn't for those rabid unionists up there the UK would have washed it's hands of the place long ago, there's really not much interest in keeping it over in Britain.

Methinks the rabid unionists wouldn't be too enthusiastic about the formation of a united Ireland!

Also, the setting up of minor HQs for a handful of International associations/companies is hardly the same as as a homegrown industry

As I have said before this is a stupid thread, if we were in a great economic position then perhaps you could forgive some people for their gloating over the UKs troubles. As it stands, with our country in an equally (if not more) perilous position, it just comes across as pathetic

Libertyed

Again I said, Fantasy, your talking about... It won't happen, because were in such a crisis here in the republic, that the goverment has been asleep for the last several years, of not knowing what was going on around them. Yes, the country is ripe for a new begining but not with idots, that's been asleep of running the country in the right directions to prospertity. Green-energy, and technology, and more manufacturing ideas for the country is the way forward. Not constructions of wasteful and oner inflated property projects....

Yixian

harsea8 wrote: »

Methinks the rabid unionists wouldn't be too enthusiastic about the formation of a united Ireland!

Also, the setting up of minor HQs for a handful of International associations/companies is hardly the same as as a homegrown industry

As I have said before this is a stupid thread, if we were in a great economic position then perhaps you could forgive some people for their gloating over the UKs troubles. As it stands, with our country in an equally (if not more) perilous position, it just comes across as pathetic

Well.. actually, both Britain and Ireland are suffering a banking crisis, the difference is banking and oil are basically the only things Britain makes any money out of at all - and with the oil running out, and without the euro, in the long run Britain could way feel the effects of the recession much harder than the Irish.

And if the quantitative easing the bank of england is trying backfires like it did to Japan, the recession for them becomes a full on depression and they are basically up **** creek without a paddle.

Oh and these international HQs isn't my example of homegrown industry, that's my example of how Ireland can benefit from Britain's collapse right now. Don't underestimate the losses they are seeing in all areas, not just the economy - the UK diplomatic corps is basically through as we know it, it's being downsized to the same size as any other European country. Since the war in Iraq it's basically lost all credibility, nobody sees it as anything but a vassal of the Americans now, and so the Egyptians and the Chinese and the Russians are going to be looking elsewhere to send their euro diplomats - and they'd love em to be english speaking I'll tell you that.


And Libertyed, I don't know where you have been but Scotland is holding a referendum on independence next year. I'm not saying it's all that likely they'll vote to secede then, but within the next 10 years I'd say it's 50/50.


In the event of an independent Scotland, if Ireland doesn't pick up the diplomatic baton, Scotland will be in the perfect position to. The perfect position.

MiniDriver

The interesting thing about the UK is that historically it is something of an economic Houdini. It should have been bankrupt three times over the last century - after the 1929 crash, after WWII, and after the OPEC oil crisis, and each time it managed to wriggle out through a mixture of luck and low cunning.

Going forwards from here, it has a number of things going for it - it is compact, fertile, defensible, still has a reasonable amount of industry (6th largest in the world), good transport links (if not the best maintained), and a good stock of resources left (esp. coal, believe it or not).

It also has its problems - it is overpopulated, has large wealth disparities, and has a number of internal tensions. However, its biggest problem is the huge overhang of personal and governmental debt. Going on past form, I have no doubt whatsoever that the UK will attempt to default on this debt in the most underhand manner possible (as, of course, they should ).

As I believe we are at the beginning of a terminal contraction of the global economy, the name of the game for each individual country will be to ride the contraction by maximising whatever natural advantages they may have. If the UK can shed their debt, I think they will do comparatively well going forwards.

Yixian

MiniDriver wrote: »

The interesting thing about the UK is that historically it is something of an economic Houdini. It should have been bankrupt three times over the last century - after the 1929 crash, after WWII, and after the OPEC oil crisis, and each time it managed to wriggle out through a mixture of luck and low cunning.

Going forwards from here, it has a number of things going for it - it is compact, fertile, defensible, still has a reasonable amount of industry (6th largest in the world), good transport links (if not the best maintained), and a good stock of resources left (esp. coal, believe it or not).

It also has its problems - it is overpopulated, has large wealth disparities, and has a number of internal tensions. However, its biggest problem is the huge overhang of personal and governmental debt. Going on past form, I have no doubt whatsoever that the UK will attempt to default on this debt in the most underhand manner possible (as, of course, they should ).

As I believe we are at the beginning of a terminal contraction of the global economy, the name of the game for each individual country will be to ride the contraction by maximising whatever natural advantages they may have. If the UK can shed their debt, I think they will do comparatively well going forwards.

This is all true, and if quantitative easing doesn't back fire and they do shed their debt, they'll be in as good (bad) as a position any other European nation.

The only problem is they have placed themselves in a position in the world that "any other European nation" can not sustain. The British Army is too large and too heavily funded and will have to become far less active in the world. The nuclear program "Trident" wastes billions upon billions of dollars on what is fast becoming a nation with no more importance on the world stage than the many non-nuclear powers in the EU and will have to be either scrapped or downsized.

The sterling will pale in further in comparison to the euro and the traditional British arrogance towards continental Europe will have to dissolve in order for Britain to become fully integrated into the new Europe.

These things will change British society perhaps more than any of those instances of near-bankruptcy in the past.

So the way I see it, either quantitative easing backfires and Britain is truly bankrupted or, it works and there are two possibilities:

1) Britain adjusts to becoming a small, western european nation, fully integrated into the EU, adopting the euro, abandoning it's empire nostalgia and downsizing it's army, nuclear programme and maybe even having to let go of it's seat on the security council.

or 2) Britain refuses to accept that it's no more important or powerful than Italy or Spain on the world stage, maintains it's empire nostalgia, continues pumping money into the army and Trident, continues expensive military misadventures abroad, keep the sterling.

I can't see any way that possibility 2 wouldn't simply lead to a belated bankruptcy or at least slow, terminal decline into stagnation.

Having grown up in the UK I have to say, I don't have much faith that the British will follow route 1, they are a nation that refuses to believe it has any lessons to learn from the world and really still considers itself to be a superpower.


The "wildcard" is Scotland - if the Tories win in 2010, which they will, and this pushes the Scots to vote yes to independence, which they probably won't but might, and Scotland leaves the UK, adopts the euro and becomes a small, knowledge-based EU nation, this will have knock on effects in Northern Ireland and Wales, possibly prompting the beginning of the road to a united Ireland and probably just leading to increased devolution in Wales.

In this scenario, the English may even opt to leave the union themselves before Wales or NI, something currently most Brits want to do according to polls, leaving England as yes, an arrogant Tory-infested backwater, but an arrogant Tory-infested backwater with no claim to international importance. That England might accept route 2.

MiniDriver

Yixian wrote: »

This is all true, and if quantitative easing doesn't back fire and they do shed their debt, they'll be in as good (bad) as a position any other European nation.

The only problem is they have placed themselves in a position in the world that "any other European nation" can not sustain. The British Army is too large and too heavily funded and will have to become far less active in the world. The nuclear program "Trident" wastes billions upon billions of dollars on what is fast becoming a nation with no more importance on the world stage than the many non-nuclear powers in the EU and will have to be either scrapped or downsized.

The sterling will pale in further in comparison to the euro and the traditional British arrogance towards continental Europe will have to dissolve in order for Britain to become fully integrated into the new Europe.

These things will change British society perhaps more than any of those instances of near-bankruptcy in the past.

So the way I see it, either quantitative easing backfires and Britain is truly bankrupted or, it works and there are two possibilities:

1) Britain adjusts to becoming a small, western european nation, fully integrated into the EU, adopting the euro, abandoning it's empire nostalgia and downsizing it's army, nuclear programme and maybe even having to let go of it's seat on the security council.

or 2) Britain refuses to accept that it's no more important or powerful than Italy or Spain on the world stage, maintains it's empire nostalgia, continues pumping money into the army and Trident, continues expensive military misadventures abroad, keep the sterling.

I can't see any way that possibility 2 wouldn't simply lead to a belated bankruptcy or at least slow, terminal decline into stagnation.

Having grown up in the UK I have to say, I don't have much faith that the British will follow route 1, they are a nation that refuses to believe it has any lessons to learn from the world and really still considers itself to be a superpower.


The "wildcard" is Scotland - if the Tories win in 2010, which they will, and this pushes the Scots to vote yes to independence, which they probably won't but might, and Scotland leaves the UK, adopts the euro and becomes a small, knowledge-based EU nation, this will have knock on effects in Northern Ireland and Wales, possibly prompting the beginning of the road to a united Ireland and probably just leading to increased devolution in Wales.

In this scenario, the English may even opt to leave the union themselves before Wales or NI, something currently most Brits want to do according to polls, leaving England as yes, an arrogant Tory-infested backwater, but an arrogant Tory-infested backwater with no claim to international importance. That England might accept route 2.

Well, I think the problem with this analysis is that it presumes a stable world outside of the UK, and I don't think that's going to happen.

For a start, I think in the medium-to-long term the EU is doomed, along with every other transnational body (i.e. IMF, WTO, NAFTA etc.). Quite simply, Germany's future interests lie with energy-rich Russia, not with economic albatrosses such as Spain and Italy. I believe the process we are currently involved in is deglobalisation, so the obvious next step will be a rise in economic nationalism. As such, the Euro will be abandoned prior to the break-up of the EU, leaving a strong-ish Deutschmark, an adequate Franc, and a load of toilet currencies.

I expect the UK to stand to one side of this process, devaluing its currency in order to maintain exports and the balance of payments. As for QE, I think the UK will be stuck with it like Japan was, purely to maintain stability as the economy deflates. As soon as the geopolitical opportunity presents itself (i.e. some sort of global crisis) it will default on its debts and abandon QE. It will then be on some sort of level playing field with most of the other major European powers.

As for Scottish independence, it's a possibility, though I suspect we are more likely to see a federal UK e.g. the Scottish, Welsh and NI parliaments/assemblies given full tax-raising powers, with only a few strategic issues being decided in London (e.g. energy, defence). As the world is set to become more unstable, I think the Scots will be less inclined towards full independence.

hiorta

Excellent analysis Yixian.

Yixian

MiniDriver wrote: »

Well, I think the problem with this analysis is that it presumes a stable world outside of the UK, and I don't think that's going to happen.

For a start, I think in the medium-to-long term the EU is doomed, along with every other transnational body (i.e. IMF, WTO, NAFTA etc.). Quite simply, Germany's future interests lie with energy-rich Russia, not with economic albatrosses such as Spain and Italy. I believe the process we are currently involved in is deglobalisation, so the obvious next step will be a rise in economic nationalism. As such, the Euro will be abandoned prior to the break-up of the EU, leaving a strong-ish Deutschmark, an adequate Franc, and a load of toilet currencies.

I expect the UK to stand to one side of this process, devaluing its currency in order to maintain exports and the balance of payments. As for QE, I think the UK will be stuck with it like Japan was, purely to maintain stability as the economy deflates. As soon as the geopolitical opportunity presents itself (i.e. some sort of global crisis) it will default on its debts and abandon QE. It will then be on some sort of level playing field with most of the other major European powers.

As much as there is wrong with the EU I honestly don't believe it's in any danger of breaking up. The euro is the strongest currency in the world at the moment and rather than being dissolved I expect you'll find it coming into use not just throughout the entire European continent but perhaps even becoming de facto in Turkey and North Africa in the long run.

The US dollar is on it's way out as the currency of international reserve and there's a good chance if the EU plays it's cards right that the euro will take it's place.

I do agree that the world will be shaken up in many ways but actually I think Europe is the place where this will happen least. With the exception of Britain and France, Europe has already abandoned it's "global police", imperialist nostalgia. Europe isn't the superpower on the way out, it's already made that transition, the whole point of the EU has been to create a profitable and powerful entity that doesn't compete for global domination like the US and China. Despite the recent setbacks with Merkel fueling a right wing shift in EU policy towards neo-liberal economics and deregulation that will have to be reversed at some point, in general the EU has done a good job of creating a continent that can maintain its quality of life and stability without having to vie for the superpower top spot by focusing on quality of life over GDP.

It's Asia and the US that will change the most, I believe. The US will slowly become what Europe is today, Obama is certainly going to help that. Military downsizing, the loss of the dollar as the international reserve currency and tighter control over it's multinationals will turn the US into an EU counterpart rather than a China counterpart.

China is going to get very rich very fast but it lacks many things that the US and Europe have still. It's decades behind in green energy and science and Europe is a far more cohesive and stable society to live in - these things will help maintain our quality of life here in Europe, and after all, that's what matters.

MiniDriver

Yixian wrote: »

As much as there is wrong with the EU I honestly don't believe it's in any danger of breaking up. The euro is the strongest currency in the world at the moment and rather than being dissolved I expect you'll find it coming into use not just throughout the entire European continent but perhaps even becoming de facto in Turkey and North Africa in the long run.

The US dollar is on it's way out as the currency of international reserve and there's a good chance if the EU plays it's cards right that the euro will take it's place.

I do agree that the world will be shaken up in many ways but actually I think Europe is the place where this will happen least. With the exception of Britain and France, Europe has already abandoned it's "global police", imperialist nostalgia. Europe isn't the superpower on the way out, it's already made that transition, the whole point of the EU has been to create a profitable and powerful entity that doesn't compete for global domination like the US and China. Despite the recent setbacks with Merkel fueling a right wing shift in EU policy towards neo-liberal economics and deregulation that will have to be reversed at some point, in general the EU has done a good job of creating a continent that can maintain its quality of life and stability without having to vie for the superpower top spot by focusing on quality of life over GDP.

It's Asia and the US that will change the most, I believe. The US will slowly become what Europe is today, Obama is certainly going to help that. Military downsizing, the loss of the dollar as the international reserve currency and tighter control over it's multinationals will turn the US into an EU counterpart rather than a China counterpart.

China is going to get very rich very fast but it lacks many things that the US and Europe have still. It's decades behind in green energy and science and Europe is a far more cohesive and stable society to live in - these things will help maintain our quality of life here in Europe, and after all, that's what matters.

I tend to agree with you on China and the USA, although I think there is an outside chance of the USA breaking up into a series of smaller nations, especially as the southwest is effectively becoming part of Mexico. I think China can go either way - new superpower or disaster area, depending on the choices it makes/luck/events etc.

As for the Euro, it has a lot of danger ahead with the colossal debts that are hanging over the European banks due to their reckless lending to emerging economies, especially in Eastern Europe. This hasn't been as widely reported as it should be. From what I have read, the IMF's recent loans to the Baltics went straight back to the Swedish Landesbank to prevent it from collapsing. This was all done with a nod and a wink from the ECB. The Eurozone is a far less stable area than is generally acknowledged - I personally don't see it surviving, but I respect your opinion, because really anything can happen in the future.