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Dsmythy's football bets

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  • 07-08-2009 5:58pm
    #1
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭


    Sure everyone else is having a shot so i may as well join in. Avoided labelling myself as pro and being a money machine because i'm not the former and i may not be the latter either :P A nice neutral thread title.

    My bets are based on a system. It does require some human input so it's not an entirely automated beast.

    Each bet is one unit. Level stakes regardless of price. 1 bet = 1 unit

    Bank is 15 units. It's a bit on the small side but let's face it it wouldn't be much fun updating the thread hanging around the -15 loss mark. By this stage i will have abandoned betting this season in this manner anyway.

    Bets are for the top four English divisions. Bets are always singles. They are not tips, just the bets i'm doing and we see how successful or otherwise i can be.

    And of course i'm willing to end up -15 on my record and it's money i can afford to lose as betting always should be.


    All comments welcome throughout the thread.


    Having said all of that i have no bets for the opening of the Championship-League Two leagues this weekend. Being at 0 beats being at -4 through betting on things you bet on purely for interest's sake.

    Closest team i came to backing was Wycombe away to Charlton in League One. The price was only marginally smaller than desired. Speaking of away teams, when i was making my calculations for this weekend, a lot of the games where the system leaned towards one team over another it seems to have leaned towards the away teams with regards to value. 69% of these 28 "leanings" were towards the odds of the away sides. I don't know whether it's just an anomoly this week or if layers are actively targetting away teams but will be interesting to see how things unfold over the course of the next couple of days.

    My underestimated teams of the upcoming season are Stoke, Blackpool, Preston, Walsall, Oldham, Tranmere and Morecambe

    The teams being overestimated IMO are Blackburn, QPR, Derby, Brighton, Charlton, Notts County and Cheltenham

    These are based on the difference between my ranking of the teams in order of rating and their position in betting markets.

    Hopefully i'll have a bet on the table next week. Good luck to all.


«1345

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    #2
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Finally some bets for me to do! Two to be precise.

    Hartlepool v Charlton 2/1 Paddy Power

    Wycombe v Leeds 3/1 Ladbrokes


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    #3
    thedini
    Registered Users Posts: 857 ✭✭✭thedini


    Good luck with it, at least there appears to be a method to the madness which is unusual in these parts. Have you used it in prior seasons? much sucesss?


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    #4
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    thedini wrote: »
    Good luck with it, at least there appears to be a method to the madness which is unusual in these parts. Have you used it in prior seasons? much sucesss?

    It managed a +10.85% ROI in the 07/08 season. For the season just gone i only used it up until early december when other commitments took away the time for me to work out the bets. Up until that time the ROI was a more... shall we say modest... +1.93%...

    So i'm back this season to see if it's a one season wonder or not.


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    #5
    TheRock
    Closed Accounts Posts: 403 ✭✭TheRock


    dsmythy wrote: »
    Finally some bets for me to do! Two to be precise.

    Wycombe v Leeds 3/1 Ladbrokes

    Why Wycombe?? Leeds look like being very strong in this division this year.

    If you did fancy Wycombe to do well in this game, I think you would be better off Laying Leeds at 2.0. Therefor getting Even money on Wycombe or the draw.


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    #6
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    TheRock wrote: »
    Why Wycombe?? Leeds look like being very strong in this division this year.

    If you did fancy Wycombe to do well in this game, I think you would be better off Laying Leeds at 2.0. Therefor getting Even money on Wycombe or the draw.

    Cheers for the advice. Certainly one to consider for anyone else looking at the game. For the system i just look at backing teams to win.

    As for the reason Wycombe was thrown up as a bet. I think it's a combination of things.

    The previous two years i had Leeds rated top team in the league. Both years i lost money on them during the season. So i guess i was wary when considering their rating for this year. The loss of Delph reduced it further.

    The odds tend to be skewed when it comes to Leeds. There's a lot of pressure on it from people backing Leeds i woiuld imagine.

    Finally i have Wycombe comfortable mid-table and i'm clearly in disagreement with the general view on it so this would push the bet towards Wycombe also. Teams coming up from League Two have done alright in League One. For the last six years only 3 promoted sides got relegated.


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    #7
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Bank: 15
    dsmythy wrote: »
    Hartlepool v Charlton 2/1 Paddy Power -1

    Wycombe v Leeds 3/1 Ladbrokes -1

    New bank: 13
    Bets: 2
    Wins: 0
    Profit/Loss: -2


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    #8
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    5 picks for midweek fixtures. Two familiar teams being opposed from League One. Two home teams selected against superior top 4 opposition in the Prem and one from the Championship to close out. All home teams oddly enough.

    I do kind of wish i was getting higher hit bets to do but outside low-hit high reward bets seem to be the flavour of things thus far. My small bank could end up in trouble early on! 1 bet=1 unit as usual.

    Sunderland v Chelsea 13/2 Boyles
    Burnley v Manchester United 11/1 Boyles
    Blackpool v Derby County 6/4 Victor Chandler
    Leyton Orient v Charlton 21/10 Paddy Power
    Walsall v Leeds United 3/1 Paddy Power


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    #9
    orourkeda
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,918 ✭✭✭✭orourkeda


    I've got to say Wigan at about 4\5 to beat Wolves at home looks bet of the week after their performance on saturday. They played fantastically. A repeat performance would make them difficult to beat.

    You can also get spurs at evens to beat Hull


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    #10
    hawaii501
    Registered Users Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭hawaii501


    i think boro's odds are very generous at 5/4(PP) to beat scunthorpe away, that would be my bet of the week due to their convincing victory at the Liberty stadium and the talent they have available.


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    #11
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Disasterous unless Burnley pull off a surprise. 3 of the 4 teams tonight were actually ahead at one stage. That's how it goes though. I'll keep plugging away unless we hit -15 nonetheless.


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    #12
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Bank: 13
    dsmythy wrote: »

    Sunderland v Chelsea 13/2 Boyles -1
    Burnley v Manchester United 11/1 Boyles +11
    Blackpool v Derby County 6/4 Victor Chandler -1
    Leyton Orient v Charlton 21/10 Paddy Power -1
    Walsall v Leeds United 3/1 Paddy Power -1

    New bank: 20
    Bets: 7
    Wins: 1
    Profit/Loss: +5


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    #13
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Long shot central this weekend it would seem.

    Wigan v Manchester United 6/1 Ladbrokes
    West Ham v Tottenham 2/1 Ladbrokes
    Fulham v Chelsea 6/1 Ladbrokes
    Crystal Palace v Newcastle 21/10 Paddy Power
    Charlton v Walsall 6/1 Ladbrokes
    Leeds v Tranmere 7/1 Ladbrokes


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    #14
    8-10
    Registered Users Posts: 13,357 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    dsmythy wrote: »
    Long shot central this weekend it would seem.

    Wigan v Manchester United 6/1 Ladbrokes
    West Ham v Tottenham 2/1 Ladbrokes
    Fulham v Chelsea 6/1 Ladbrokes
    Crystal Palace v Newcastle 21/10 Paddy Power
    Charlton v Walsall 6/1 Ladbrokes
    Leeds v Tranmere 7/1 Ladbrokes

    I don't think West Ham is a bad bet, 9/4 with bet365. Spurs ALWAYS concede. Is Gomes out injured? Came off in the midweek game after falling awkwardly. Plus they still don't have their best centre-halves.


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    #15
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    8-10 wrote: »
    I don't think West Ham is a bad bet, 9/4 with bet365. Spurs ALWAYS concede. Is Gomes out injured? Came off in the midweek game after falling awkwardly. Plus they still don't have their best centre-halves.

    Gomes is injured alright but Cudicini steps in. I'm not sure Gomes being injured is a bad thing for Spurs... Still West Ham at home at 2/1 is a shocking price. Worth a bet i say.


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    #16
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Bank 20
    dsmythy wrote: »
    Long shot central this weekend it would seem.

    Wigan v Manchester United 6/1 Ladbrokes -1
    West Ham v Tottenham 2/1 Ladbrokes -1
    Fulham v Chelsea 6/1 Ladbrokes -1
    Crystal Palace v Newcastle 21/10 Paddy Power -1
    Charlton v Walsall 6/1 Ladbrokes -1
    Leeds v Tranmere 7/1 Ladbrokes -1

    New bank: 14
    Bets: 13
    Wins: 1
    Profit/Loss: -1


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    #17
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Two bets for the weekend.

    Portsmouth v Manchester City 11/2 Bet365
    Tranmere v Charlton 12/5 Bet365


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    #18
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Bank 14
    dsmythy wrote: »
    Two bets for the weekend.

    Portsmouth v Manchester City 11/2 Bet365 -1
    Tranmere v Charlton 12/5 Bet365 -1

    New bank: 12
    Bets: 15
    Wins: 1
    Profit/Loss: -3


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    #19
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Bets for upcoming Friday/Saturday games.

    Charlton v Brentford 5/1 Victor Chandler
    Carlisle v Tranmere 3/1 Bet365
    Morecambe v Rochdale 2/1 Bet365
    Northampton v Barnet 1/1 Paddy Power
    Rotherham v Chesterfield 5/4 Bet365


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    #20
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Bank: 12
    dsmythy wrote: »
    Bets for upcoming Friday/Saturday games.

    Charlton v Brentford 5/1 Victor Chandler -1
    Carlisle v Tranmere 3/1 Bet365 -1
    Morecambe v Rochdale 2/1 Bet365 -1
    Northampton v Barnet 1/1 Paddy Power -1
    Rotherham v Chesterfield 5/4 Bet365 +1

    New bank: 9
    Bets: 20
    Wins: 2
    Profit/Loss: -6


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    #21
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Three for midweek Championship games.

    Derby v Barnsley 4/1 Boyles
    Sheffield Wednesday v Middlesbrough 21/10 William Hill
    Blackpool v Newcastle 13/5 Boyles

    Made mistake in my previous post. Obviously winning at 5/4 means +1.25 not +1

    So before these bets are placed:

    New bank: 9.25
    Bets: 20
    Wins: 2
    Profit/Loss: -5.75


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    #22
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    dsmythy wrote: »
    Derby v Barnsley 4/1 Boyles +4
    Sheffield Wednesday v Middlesbrough 21/10 William Hill -1
    Blackpool v Newcastle 13/5 Boyles +2.6

    New bank: 14.85
    Bets: 23
    Wins: 4
    Profit/Loss: -0.15


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    #23
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Bets for this weekend.

    West Ham v Liverpool 11/2 Paddy Power
    Chelsea v Tottenham 8/15 Stan James
    Exeter v Tranmere 11/4 SkyBet
    Oldham v Carlisle 6/4 Bet365
    Darlington v Bournemouth 3/1 Paddy Power
    Morecambe v Notts County 7/2 Ladbrokes
    Port Vale v Bury 12/5 Victor Chandler


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    #24
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    dsmythy wrote: »
    West Ham v Liverpool 11/2 Paddy Power -1
    Chelsea v Tottenham 8/15 Stan James +0.53
    Exeter v Tranmere 11/4 SkyBet -1
    Oldham v Carlisle 6/4 Bet365 +1.5
    Darlington v Bournemouth 3/1 Paddy Power -1
    Morecambe v Notts County 7/2 Ladbrokes +3.5
    Port Vale v Bury 12/5 Victor Chandler +2.4

    New bank: 19.78
    Bets: 30
    Wins: 8
    Profit/Loss: +4.78


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    #25
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    This weekend's football bets.....

    Portsmouth v Everton 10/3 Ladbrokes
    Stoke v Manchester United 9/1 Ladbrokes
    Fulham v Arsenal 13/2 William Hill
    Ipswich v Newcastle 2/1 Paddy Power
    Milton Keynes Dons v Leeds 2/1 Bet365
    Dagenham & Redbridge v Morecambe 5/1 Paddy Power
    Rotherham v Barnet 10/11 Victor Chandler


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    #26
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    dsmythy wrote: »
    This weekend's football bets.....

    Portsmouth v Everton 10/3 Ladbrokes -1
    Stoke v Manchester United 9/1 Ladbrokes -1
    Fulham v Arsenal 13/2 William Hill -1
    Ipswich v Newcastle 2/1 Paddy Power -1
    Milton Keynes Dons v Leeds 2/1 Bet365 -1
    Dagenham & Redbridge v Morecambe 5/1 Paddy Power -1
    Rotherham v Barnet 10/11 Victor Chandler +0.91

    New bank: 14.69
    Bets: 37
    Wins: 9
    Profit/Loss: -0.31


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    #27
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Midweek fixtures:

    Cardiff v Derby 10/11 SkyBet
    Sheffield United v Ipswich 9/2 Boyles
    Colchester v Charlton 2/1 Victor Chandler
    Crewe v Bury 23/10 Bet365
    Darlington v Rochdale 10/3 Ladbrokes
    Hereford v Bournemouth 3/1 Ladbrokes
    Lincoln v Notts County 3/1 Bet365


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    #28
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    dsmythy wrote: »
    Midweek fixtures:

    Cardiff v Derby 10/11 SkyBet +0.91
    Sheffield United v Ipswich 9/2 Boyles -1
    Colchester v Charlton 2/1 Victor Chandler +2
    Crewe v Bury 23/10 Bet365 +2.30
    Darlington v Rochdale 10/3 Ladbrokes -1
    Hereford v Bournemouth 3/1 Ladbrokes +3
    Lincoln v Notts County 3/1 Bet365 -1

    New bank: 19.90
    Bets: 44
    Wins: 13
    Profit/Loss: +4.90


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    #29
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Weekend games


    Bolton v Tottenham 10/3 SkyBet

    Chelsea v Liverpool 6/5 VC Bet

    Aston Villa v Manchester City 7/4 Bet365

    Newcastle v Bristol City 6/1 Bet365

    Brighton v Milton Keynes Dons 6/4 Ladbrokes

    Barnet V Grimsby 7/2 Ladbrokes

    Crewe v Rotherham 6/4 Paddy Power

    Hereford v Dagenham & Redbridge 12/5 SkyBet

    Northampton v Bradford 13/8 Paddy Power

    Torquay v Bury 5/4 Ladbrokes


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    #30
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    dsmythy wrote: »
    Weekend games


    Bolton v Tottenham 10/3 SkyBet -1

    Chelsea v Liverpool 6/5 VC Bet +1.20

    Aston Villa v Manchester City 7/4 Bet365 -1

    Newcastle v Bristol City 6/1 Bet365 -1

    Brighton v Milton Keynes Dons 6/4 Ladbrokes +1.50

    Barnet V Grimsby 7/2 Ladbrokes -1

    Crewe v Rotherham 6/4 Paddy Power +1.50

    Hereford v Dagenham & Redbridge 12/5 SkyBet -1

    Northampton v Bradford 13/8 Paddy Power -1

    Torquay v Bury 5/4 Ladbrokes -1


    New bank: 17.10
    Bets: 54
    Wins: 16
    Profit/Loss: +2.10


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    #31
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,517 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Games Saturday - Monday. Mainly longshots.

    Charlton v Oldham 5/1 Ladbrokes
    Leyton Orient v Colchester 5/2 Bet365
    Tranmere v Stockport 7/5 Boyles
    Aldershot v Morecambe 3/1 Ladbrokes
    Dagenham & Redbridge v Darlington 7/1 Coral
    Notts County v Torquay 8/1 Ladbrokes


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