Dsmythy's football bets

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

Brentford v Oldham 6/5 Boyle Sports -1.00

Hartlepool v Peterborough 9/4 Victor Chandler +2.25

Walsall v Exeter 13/8 BlueSquare +1.63

Barnet v Bradford 2/1 Victor Chandler +2.00

Hereford v Port Vale 7/2 Victor Chandler -1.00

Morecambe v Shrewsbury 15/8 William Hill +1.88

Rotherham v Stevenage 23/20 Victor Chandler -1.00

New bank: 14.21
Bets: 61
Wins: 20
Profit/Loss: -0.79

dsmythy

Ridiculous number of bets this weekend. At least it will be fun. Have to post them slightly early because of time restraints tomorrow. If i get the chance i'll edit any changes i make in the meantime if i get the chance to (before any matches being played of course!).

Fulham v Tottenham 8/5 Victor Chandler

Manchester United v West Brom 2/7 Boyles

Aston Villa v Chelsea 4/1 Paddy Power

Blackpool v Manchester City 5/1 Paddy Power

Cardiff V Bristol City 6/1 SkyBet

Bristol Rovers v Rochdale 5/4 William Hill

Charlton v Brighton 6/4 Victor Chandler

Dagenham & Redbridge v Walsall 11/4 Victor Chandler

Yeovil v Sheffield Wednesday 6/4 BlueSquare

Accrington v Rotherham 9/5 BlueSquare

Aldershot v Morecambe 10/3 Victor Chandler

Bradford v Cheltenham 21/20 William Hill

Wycombe v Chesterfield 9/4 Stan James

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

Fulham v Tottenham 8/5 Victor Chandler +1.60

Manchester United v West Brom 2/7 Boyles -1.00

Aston Villa v Chelsea 4/1 Paddy Power -1.00

Blackpool v Manchester City 5/1 Paddy Power -1.00

Cardiff V Bristol City 6/1 SkyBet -1.00

Bristol Rovers v Rochdale 5/4 William Hill +1.25

Charlton v Brighton 6/4 Victor Chandler -1.00

Dagenham & Redbridge v Walsall 11/4 Victor Chandler -1.00

Yeovil v Sheffield Wednesday 6/4 BlueSquare +1.50

Accrington v Rotherham 9/5 BlueSquare +1.80

Aldershot v Morecambe 10/3 Victor Chandler -1.00

Bradford v Cheltenham 21/20 William Hill +1.05

Wycombe v Chesterfield 9/4 Stan James +2.25

New bank: 16.66
Bets: 74
Wins: 26
Profit/Loss: +1.66

dsmythy

2 bets for Tuesday Championship games:

Coventry v Cardiff 21/10 Victor Chandler

Swansea v Queens Park Rangers 21/10 Victor Chandler

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

2 bets for Tuesday Championship games:

Coventry v Cardiff 21/10 Victor Chandler -1.00

Swansea v Queens Park Rangers 21/10 Victor Chandler -1.00

My apparent vendetta against Wales doesn't turn a profit.

New bank: 14.66
Bets: 76
Wins: 26
Profit/Loss: -0.34

dsmythy

Another monster weekend. Lots of homes. I might tilt the balance back to the away sides unless I somehow manage a large profit from this lot.

Tottenham v Everton 11/10 BlueSquare

West Ham v Newastle 7/5 Betfred

Manchester City v Arsenal 6/4 Victor Chandler

Hull v Portsmouth 8/5 William Hill

Swansea v Leicester 11/4 Paddy Power

Leeds v Cardiff 2/1 Victor Chandler

Sheffield Wednesday v Bournemouth 11/10 William Hill

Swindon v Leyton Orient 1/1 William Hill

Chesterfield v Shrewsbury 23/20 Victor Chandler

Crewe v Aldershot 21/10 Victor Chandler

Rotherham v Wycombe 7/5 William Hill

Hereford v Accrington 9/5 William Hill

Morecambe v Stevenage 9/5 William Hill

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

Another monster weekend. Lots of homes. I might tilt the balance back to the away sides unless I somehow manage a large profit from this lot.

Tottenham v Everton 11/10 BlueSquare -1.00

West Ham v Newcastle 7/5 Betfred -1.00

Manchester City v Arsenal 6/4 Victor Chandler -1.00

Hull v Portsmouth 8/5 William Hill -1.00

Swansea v Leicester 11/4 Paddy Power -1.00

Leeds v Cardiff 2/1 Victor Chandler -1.00

Sheffield Wednesday v Bournemouth 11/10 William Hill -1.00

Swindon v Leyton Orient 1/1 William Hill -1.00

Chesterfield v Shrewsbury 23/20 Victor Chandler +1.15

Crewe v Aldershot 21/10 Victor Chandler -1.00

Rotherham v Wycombe 7/5 William Hill -1.00

Hereford v Accrington 9/5 William Hill -1.00

Morecambe v Stevenage 9/5 William Hill -1.00

Ouch, one for the record books. Leaves us on fumes once more.

New bank: 3.81
Bets: 89
Wins: 27
Profit/Loss: -11.19

dsmythy

Bank bust or live another day?

Blackburn v Chelsea 15/2 Boyle Sports

Bradford v Oxford 15/8 Betfred

Port Vale v Crewe 11/10 William Hill

Scunthorpe v Leeds 2/1 Victor Chandler

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

Blackburn v Chelsea 15/2 Boyle Sports -1.00

Bradford v Oxford 15/8 Betfred +1.88

Port Vale v Crewe 11/10 William Hill +1.10

Scunthorpe v Leeds 2/1 Victor Chandler +2.00

New bank: 7.79
Bets: 93
Wins: 30
Profit/Loss: -7.21

dsmythy

Still alive, for now...

Blackpool v Everton 4/1 Betpack

West Brom v Manchester City 11/10 Ladbrokes

Liverpool v Chelsea 3/1 Boyle Sports

Hull v Scunthorpe 23/20 William Hill

CrabieCrawford

Was actually thinking of these matches but having the opposite selections for each match. Interesting at the two completely different opinions

Was thinking of everton as theyre starting to hit a bit of form at the minute and blackpool have been better on the road this season as theyve been playing attacking football with other teams not really expecting this.

Dont think west brom have lost a home game all season with 3 wins and two draws in theyre last 5 home games whereas Man cit havent looked great without tevez. Think id wait to see if he plays.

I think with the form of Chelsea, and think lampard will probably be back, they should have an easy enough win over liverpool and was thinking of the (-1.5) handicap. But can see how liverpool could cause an upset at the same time

hull have second worst form in the league, 3 losses and 3 draws in the last 6 matchs so was thinking of Scunthorpe ftw.

Just wondered what opinions u have, I have a habit of just concentrating on the positives of my bets and wouldnt mind another opinion on it

dsmythy

CrabieCrawford wrote: »

Was actually thinking of these matches but having the opposite selections for each match. Interesting at the two completely different opinions

Was thinking of everton as theyre starting to hit a bit of form at the minute and blackpool have been better on the road this season as theyve been playing attacking football with other teams not really expecting this.

Dont think west brom have lost a home game all season with 3 wins and two draws in theyre last 5 home games whereas Man cit havent looked great without tevez. Think id wait to see if he plays.

I think with the form of Chelsea, and think lampard will probably be back, they should have an easy enough win over liverpool and was thinking of the (-1.5) handicap. But can see how liverpool could cause an upset at the same time

hull have second worst form in the league, 3 losses and 3 draws in the last 6 matchs so was thinking of Scunthorpe ftw.

Just wondered what opinions u have, I have a habit of just concentrating on the positives of my bets and wouldnt mind another opinion on it

The picks I put up here are based on a system in which i use ratings and work out odds from the ratings i have on both teams. While there is some human input into the judging of players in and out of teams pre-season, and the general trend of number of draws and home wins, once it's set off results dictate how the ratings go up or down.

As you can see from the results I've had so far this season I'm not exactly on fire so I would not second guess your human judgement on this one. If i were to cast my own human eye at the fixtures.

Your analysis on West Brom is sound. They've done better than expected. The likely reason for my system selecting them is my pre-season judgement on them versus how they've performed so far. If I'm wrong then I'm likely behind the oddsmakers in their performances so far. I have them joint 15th in the league. Only question on it is whether West Brom's form can hold up as the season goes on.

Again on Everton I cant fault your thoughts. They are hitting form. The only thing I can say against them is that Blackpool as we know can pull a performance and while Everton are a good team, I'm not sure they are that far ahead of the Premier League midtable pack. The system likely picked Blackpool out for me on the basis of their price. Everton rightful favourites but maybe not as much as the odds suggest.

Liverpool is another picked out by the system for me on the fact they are 3/1 at Anfield. I still have them 6th in my ratings league and they may be turning that corner after a transitional start to the season. But still it is Chelsea they are facing and if they perform like they have been then you should be quite happy holding that bet. The possible loss of Malouda could be something against them but they've plenty of players to fill the void, including Lampoard who as you mention is back.

Pre-season I had Hull quite highly rated and Scunthorpe firmly last. I'm still catching up on both of their respective form shown so far possibly. So the combination of my differences of opinion with oddsmakers is making that bet for me. So I'm still relying on the form being temporary for the bet to be profitable. So again I can't really put you off your bet. Scunthorpe's away form is one of the best in league too.

Best of luck this weekend anyway.

CrabieCrawford

cheers for the reply, just really interesting how we both picked the same matchs for the best value but for different reasons.

I see where youre coming from now, I suppose given these odds at the beginning of the season id have taken you're selections everytime. I can see that if you discount form that theres great value. For example looking at the team sheets Hull are a good bit better than Scunthorpe.

Didnt realise Malouda was injured for this match so that might put me off that a little, he just offers the team so much this season.

Allways good to have a discussion

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

Blackpool v Everton 4/1 Betpack -1.00

West Brom v Manchester City 11/10 Ladbrokes +1.10

Liverpool v Chelsea 3/1 Boyle Sports +3.00

Hull v Scunthorpe 23/20 William Hill -1.00

New bank: 9.89
Bets: 97
Wins: 32
Profit/Loss: -5.11

dsmythy

I'm a bit early with these so I might get back to them if the prices grow if I can, if not then I'll just leave them at the prices I write here.

Stoke v Birmingham 3/1 Victor Chandler

West Ham v West Brom 11/8 Boyles

Wigan v Liverpool 4/1 Stan James

Burnley v Doncaster 10/11 Boyles

Ipswich v Derby 6/5 Victor Chandler

Reading v Cardiff 21/10 Victor Chandler

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

I'm a bit early with these so I might get back to them if the prices grow if I can, if not then I'll just leave them at the prices I write here.

Stoke v Birmingham 3/1 Victor Chandler -1.00

West Ham v West Brom 11/8 Boyles -1.00

Wigan v Liverpool 4/1 Stan James -1.00

Burnley v Doncaster 10/11 Boyles -1.00

Ipswich v Derby 6/5 Victor Chandler -1.00

Reading v Cardiff 21/10 Victor Chandler -1.00

Oh dear, another step back.

New bank: 3.89
Bets: 103
Wins: 32
Profit/Loss: -11.11

dsmythy

This amount of bets go slightly beyond my bank. To counteract this should these eight games result in a loss of any kind, regardless of whether the loss busts the bank or otherwise, I shall be calling it for the season. Another last stand.

Manchester City v Birmingham 4/9 Paddy Power

Leicester v Derby 11/10 Paddy Power

Brentford v Milton Keynes Dons 13/10 Ladbrokes

Bristol Rovers v Leyton Orient 11/8 Victor Chandler

Oldham v Huddersfield 6/4 Paddy Power

Gillingham v Crewe 6/4 Victor Chandler

Morecambe v Lincoln 19/20 Paddy Power

Wycombe v Bradford 10/3 Ladbrokes

dsmythy

We bust our bank so we leave it until next year