Good signs from the CSO?

Purple Gorilla

I checked the Economics forum and this one but couldn't find a thread related to this. The recent jobless figures were released showing that 10,500 people signed on last month. This means that the number of people signing on has been constantly declining since January.

January- 33,000
February- 26,700
March-20,000
April-15,000
May-13,500
June- 11,400
July-10,500

It'll be interesting to see the unemployment figures once the Temporary Government Subsidy for workers kicks in. If it does what it should, we could see a slightly accelerated drop in those signing on over the next few months?

Senna

I'd say September, October will see rises again, lot of seasonal (summer work) in hotels, pubs and restaurants will come to an end. Its the only line of business thats been recruiting in the last few months and if my area is anything to go by, its going to be short lived. I dont think seasonally adjust will cover this, i'd expect many to close up after the summer.

EastWallGirl

And recent graduates coming onto the live register who perhaps had something to do over the summer.

and dont forget the self employed who cannot sign on.

ParkRunner

Like the opposition said, we're sinking, but at a slower pace

jimmycrackcorm

I don't think the declining loses is unexpected. The Recession hit sharply for many businesses but as they begin to adjust and manage the new environment then losses will decline to a point where they will stagnate before jobs growth occurs again. The only good news is that we are probably over the worst part.

ei.sdraob

your figures are useless unless they are seasonally adjusted

silverharp

I cant see but that there has to be a whole second leg down. There are alot of businesses out there and individulas for that matter that are dead men walking.

Hangsangwich

Purple Gorilla wrote: »

I checked the Economics forum and this one but couldn't find a thread related to this. The recent jobless figures were released showing that 10,500 people signed on last month. This means that the number of people signing on has been constantly declining since January.

January- 33,000
February- 26,700
March-20,000
April-15,000
May-13,500
June- 11,400
July-10,500

It'll be interesting to see the unemployment figures once the Temporary Government Subsidy for workers kicks in. If it does what it should, we could see a slightly accelerated drop in those signing on over the next few months?

I think your post is most disingenuous. To imply that 10,500 new unemployed people in Ireland in the month of July is good news staggers me. And you cleverly worded your post to make it seem like the rate of unemployment is "dropping". You know if we reached a hypothetical state of "full unemployment" in Ireland, then an increase in unemployment would be impossible. Then you could conjure up fantastic figures and statistics.
I agree with being positive and optimistic, but I dont think realism should be shunned, nor do I think like your former FF leader does that 'people who engage in cribbing and moaning (realism) should commit suicide'.
One question, are you being paid to spout this propaganda?

Purple Gorilla

I'm actually a Labour person myself :P I just like being optimistic and compared to recent months, the jobs situation seems to be improving. I understand the situation still isn't the best but it's improving

ei.sdraob

Purple Gorilla wrote: »

I'm actually a Labour person myself :P I just like being optimistic and compared to recent months, the jobs situation seems to be improving. I understand the situation still isn't the best but it's improving

dude you sound like the BBC

somehow the economy rate of crashing is somehow means a recoverah!

yawnstretch

OP is right. There are significant signs of economic recovery and all the whingers just want to drag everything to hell where they live.

Here's my advice to all the cynical pessimistic losers:

You've nothing positive to contribute so STFU and let us get on with it.

ei.sdraob

yawnstretch wrote: »

OP is right. There are significant signs of economic recovery and all the whingers just want to drag everything to hell where they live.

Here's my advice to all the cynical pessimistic losers:

You've nothing positive to contribute so STFU and let us get on with it.

get of your happy pills dude and face reality

there is no recovery in UK and especially not here

read this here

JMcCR

A thought on "seasonally" adjusted figures.

I wonder how accurate these adjustments really are. OK, so usually there is an increase in hotel / tourist jobs in the summer but that's not the case this year. My OH works in the hotel industry and they are getting rid of people all summer. I'm sure this must be the case for many of these industries who have seasonally higher staff levels.

tlev

I just finished college and luckily am doing a Masters, which I know won't gaurantee me a job but it puts off having to find a job this year. From what I have heard from friends my age i.e other graduates it is almost impossible to find a job and a large number are unemployed still (coming from a business degree). I expect these figures to rise...

hiorta

There is no sign of a recovery and there may never be one.
The world we knew has changed entirely.

Politicians will dangle all sorts of slogans and false hopes - remember Thatcher and her oft-repeated 'the economy has turned the corner'? It turned more corners than the ubiquitous rubic cube, making no difference at all - to keep the herd focussed away from reality.

Is another avalanche of outside money likely to flood into Ireland again?
Ireland has to do this themselves, painfully and slowly.

I didn't read the thread 'Why must Ireland be poor' but another question might supply an answer - 'Why is Guinness rich'?
The solution is at the front door. The only real, permanent solution.

A sea change in attitude taking resposibility into the Irish peoples' own hands. Nothing less will do. Culture and custom must change - none of them is sacred.
Or you doom Ireland to being a permanent hand-out society.

astrofool

They usually expect a peak in the number of unemployed in the summer as the number of people look for summer jobs can't get them.

The hope is that we're over the worst of it now, inventories are getting used up, and manufacturing will pick up in earnest in the next few months.

SkepticOne

What we've got to watch out for is that there could be a jobless recovery in Ireland. As international markets pick up, foreign multinationals will step up production out of Ireland and this will boost the GDP figures. However many of these multinationals don't employ many people, they simply run their profits through Ireland for tax purposes, but this nevertheless affects the GDP figures.

Hangsangwich

Purple Gorilla wrote: »

I'm actually a Labour person myself :P I just like being optimistic and compared to recent months, the jobs situation seems to be improving. I understand the situation still isn't the best but it's improving

the employment situation IS NOT improving. All that is happening is that the rate of job loss has slowed somewhat, but we have still a higher rate of unemployment month on month

gurramok

Have a read, you missed something http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0812/1224252420962.html

THE NUMBER of foreign nationals on the Live Register of unemployment benefit claimants has gone into reverse, indicating that the ongoing turbulence in the economy is prompting foreign workers to leave the State.

There was a slight decrease in the number of foreign nationals signing on in July, according to the latest breakdown of the Live Register data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

Some 159 fewer foreign nationals claimed unemployment benefits in July compared to June, taking the total of foreign nationals on the unadjusted Live Register down 0.2 per cent to 80,786. The number of Irish unemployment claimants increased 5.1 per cent to 354,949.

I hope school leavers and graduates can reply to this thread about the state of the job market out there.

tlev

Like I said I'm a business graduate who is doing a masters first. My friends in accounting have had little problem finding work with the big 4 and other accounting firms. People in marketing, HR and other branches of business have found it much harder.

gurramok

Which makes you think how hard it will be for a school leaver to find a job if a business graduate cannot. (assuming both would be desperate for any type of work to bring money in)

astrofool

We should see the CAO points go up this year, as school leavers abandon trades. We are doing desperately badly in getting people to take up Science and Engineering however.

ei.sdraob

astrofool wrote: »

We are doing desperately badly in getting people to take up Science and Engineering however.

more work and money for me so :P

astrofool

astrofool wrote: »

We should see the CAO points go up this year, as school leavers abandon trades. We are doing desperately badly in getting people to take up Science and Engineering however.

Guess who was right: http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0817/cao.html

ejmaztec

astrofool wrote: »

Guess who was right: http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0817/cao.html

Yer big smarty-pants.:P