Probabilities of Old People dying?

brummytom

Right, I want to book tickets to see The Dubliners next March up in Newcastle (it's some time around Paddy's day).

The problem is, their combined age is like a gazillion,

What's the chances of one of them dying by then?

Schism

How long is a piece of string?

lin lin

would you not get your money back?

elmicko

1

vestanpance

Schism wrote: »

How long is a piece of string?

Twice half it's length

FlutterinBantam

Less of the ageism buddy.

ShoulderChip

brummytom wrote: »

Right, I want to book tickets to see The Dubliners next March up in Newcastle (it's some time around Paddy's day).

The problem is, their combined age is like a gazillion,

What's the chances of one of them dying by then?

Tell us more.

minidazzler

Their Survival rate is fast approaching 0.

At least one will be dead, probably more than 1.

Random

You'll have sovenier tickets more entertaining than the Jacko ones. Buy extra's.

Rabies

take out concert insurance with Quinn Direct

brummytom

ShoulderChip wrote: »

Tell us more.

My name's Tom, I'm 15. I'm on holiday in Devon at the moment.
I like irish music and long walks on the beach.
Looking for similar.


Anything else?

Pherekydes

Probabilities of people dying = 100%

Schism

vestanpance wrote: »

Twice half it's length

Right Tom, here's your answer. Now all you have to do is measure the Dubliners. :pac:

brummytom

Schism wrote: »

Right Tom, here's your answer. Now all you have to do is measure the Dubliners. :pac:

Surely we're not measuring for caskets just yet?

phasers

The Dubliners play in England?

Feckin sellouts

Spastafarian

brummytom wrote: »

Right, I want to book tickets to see The Dubliners next March up in Newcastle (it's some time around Paddy's day).

The problem is, their combined age is like a gazillion,

What's the chances of one of them dying by then?

They're already half dead. And the Dubliners are nothing without Luke Kelly and that cheese guy.

ShoulderChip

brummytom wrote: »

My name's Tom, I'm 15. I'm on holiday in Devon at the moment.
I like irish music and long walks on the beach.
Looking for similar.


Anything else?

Do you have a press that you store stuff in, yet haven't checked in ages?
are you most likely to mix up the names of your closest friends or people you just met?
when asking for a whiskey do you ask for a whiskey or by brand?
when asking for an amount of mince do you give a unit amount or say enough for one person?
Are you more likely to stand up for yourself to a stranger if you are alone or with friends?

FlutterinBantam

brummytom wrote: »

My name's Tom, I'm 15. I'm on holiday in Devon at the moment.
I like irish music and long walks on the beach.
Looking for similar.


Anything else?

Yes

Ageism is just as bad as racism buddy.

Not funny .

brummytom

phasers wrote: »

The Dubliners play in England?

Feckin sellouts

They used to play here all the time.. Luke (God rest his soul) started his singing career up in Geordieland. They barely come (to England :P ) now though, which is why I'm so keen to see them

Spastafarian wrote: »

They're already half dead. And the Dubliners are nothing without Luke Kelly and that cheese guy.

No idea who the 'cheese guy' is :P Agreed since Luke died, they were never the same. But I've never had the chance to see them before, and probably never will again

gerry87

Something about this just feels wrong, but anyway...

Barney - 1939 - 70 - P(d) = .02513
John - 1939 - 70 - p(d) = .02513
Sean - 1940 - 69 - P(d) = .02254
Eamonn - 1946 - 63 - p(d) = .01222
Patsy - 1944 - 65 - p(d) = .01478

probability of one or more of them going this year is
1 - ((1 - .02513) * (1 - .02513) * (1 - .02254) * (1 - .01222) * (1 - .01478)) = 0.0959637318

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/births_d_m/current/irishlife.pdf

brummytom

gerry87 wrote: »

Something about this just feels wrong, but anyway...

Barney - 1939 - 70 - P(d) = .02513
John - 1939 - 70 - p(d) = .02513
Sean - 1940 - 69 - P(d) = .02254
Eamonn - 1946 - 63 - p(d) = .01222
Patsy - 1944 - 65 - p(d) = .01478

Probability of one of them going this year is
.02513 + .02513 + .02254 + .01222 + .01478 = 0.0998

probability of one or more
1 - ((1 - .02513) * (1 - .02513) * (1 - .02254) * (1 - .01222) * (1 - .01478)) = 0.0959637318

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/births_d_m/current/irishlife.pdf

God!
Wow, I didn't think Eamonn was just 63 .

Well compaired to these, they're only spring chickens!

Spastafarian

brummytom wrote: »

No idea who the 'cheese guy' is :P Agreed since Luke died, they were never the same. But I've never had the chance to see them before, and probably never will again

The cheese guy is Ronnie Drew. He used to do the ads for Dubliners cheese. Which isn't as good as Charleville cheese. It's a bit tart for my tastes.

He's dead by the way.

brummytom

Spastafarian wrote: »

The cheese guy is Ronnie Drew. He used to do the ads for Dubliners cheese. Which isn't as good as Charleville cheese. It's a bit tart for my tastes.

He's dead by the way.

Ah ok, I'm not in Ireland, wasn't aware of the adverts.
Yeah I know - Strangely, I was listening to him the day he died (the first anniversary next week), kind of put a dampener on my holiday when I found out

And Cheddar's the best

Super-Rush

brummytom wrote: »

My name's Tom, I'm 15. I'm on holiday in Devon at the moment.
I like irish music and long walks on the beach.
Looking for similar. Will settle for less


Anything else?

FYP

kraggy

gerry87 wrote: »

Something about this just feels wrong, but anyway...

Barney - 1939 - 70 - P(d) = .02513
John - 1939 - 70 - p(d) = .02513
Sean - 1940 - 69 - P(d) = .02254
Eamonn - 1946 - 63 - p(d) = .01222
Patsy - 1944 - 65 - p(d) = .01478

probability of one or more of them going this year is
1 - ((1 - .02513) * (1 - .02513) * (1 - .02254) * (1 - .01222) * (1 - .01478)) = 0.0959637318

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/births_d_m/current/irishlife.pdf

Where did you get the .02/.01 numbers?

Stevecw

Dubliners in Newcastle?? ow do the aul rebel songs and very Irish stuff go down there these days?
A year ago maybe with the bandwagon Keano brigade just down the road...but not anymore!

Tell the Dubliners to get the hell down to Suffolk!

TomCo

http://www.blog.joelx.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/odds-of-dying-death-kill-living.gif

gerry87

kraggy wrote: »

Where did you get the .02/.01 numbers?

From life tables - http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/births_d_m/current/irishlife.pdf and ages from wikipedia.