Hurricane BILL

Trogdor

Another one forming up in the Atlantic!
Looks like they expect this to become a bit stronger than TS ANA


TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS FORMED A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA...AS WELL AS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND
35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.

THE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER WAS BEING
TRACKED YESTERDAY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
265/15. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE DEPRESSION
INTERACTS WITH THE ELONGATED MONSOON/TROPICAL WAVE CIRCULATION THAT
SPAWNED IT. OVERALL...DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO...AND THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT CLUSTER OF THE MODELS
AROUND THE 5 DAY FORECAST POINT. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF...
WHICH FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AND AT THIS TIME IS A RIGHT OUTLIER.

THE CYCLONE IS IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 DAYS. ALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE HWRF FORECASTING A MAJOR
HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR AND A HURRICANE IN 72-96
HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 11.5N 34.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 11.3N 36.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 11.3N 38.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 11.8N 41.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 12.4N 44.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 14.0N 50.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 57.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 63.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Trogdor

Now tropical storm Bill

TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE IS
LARGE AND HAS NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH
THE OUTFLOW PRIMARILY ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
HAVE INCREASED AND SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM
STATUS WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. BILL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT SHEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND BILL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
UPWARD INTENSITY TREND INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE.

BILL IS IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND IS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265
DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. IN GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
STEERING CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED AND BILL SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN A
LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A DAY OR SO...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...AND
THE BULK OF THE MODELS HAS BILL AS A HURRICANE JUST NORTH AND VERY
NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 11.3N 35.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 11.2N 37.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 11.5N 40.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 12.0N 43.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 13.0N 46.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 17.0N 58.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 63.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Trogdor

Cat 1 hurricane now and continuing to strengthen

HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009

INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES REVEAL AN IMPRESSIVE MASS OF DEEP
CONVECTION...WITH A LARGE AREA OF -70C AND EVEN -80C CLOUD
TOPS WITHIN A WELL-ORGANIZED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. IN
ADDITION...SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED BANDS ARE NOTED OUTSIDE OF THE
CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CORE. A 0142 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATED A DISTINCT
CONVECTIVE RING AROUND THE CENTER...ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASED
ORGANIZATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE AT 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG
WITH CURRENT TRENDS...SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO
65 KT. THIS MAKES BILL THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2009 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON.

RECENT SATELLITE CENTER FIXES ARE LESS DOUBTFUL THAN EARLIER AND
YIELD A RATHER RAPID INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/19. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS BILL IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
WEAKNESS CURRENTLY ALONG 50W...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ERODING A
PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AS THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE
SUBSTANTIAL...A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TURNS BILL ON A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD COURSE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION
IS THE UKMET WHICH INSISTS ON A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS INITIALLY NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN THE
SHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE CERTAIN INITIAL POSITION...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER.

BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 27C THROUGH 24
HOURS. SIMILAR TO BEFORE...THE GFDL/HWRF INDICATE A NEARLY FLAT
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...PERHAPS
REFLECTING MARGINALLY WARM WATERS. IN SPITE OF THIS...THE SHIPS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX HAS CONTINUED FORECASTING A RATHER HIGH
PROBABILITY OF A 30 KT INTENSITY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW BILL TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...CLOSEST TO
THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR AS BILL IS SEPARATED FROM ITS FAVORABLE...UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
INDICATES MINOR WEAKENING NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

IT APPEARS AS IF THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO NOAA
BUOY 41041 LATER THIS MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 13.8N 44.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.4N 46.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.1N 49.0W 85 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 51.6W 95 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 54.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 20.5N 59.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 25.0N 63.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 30.1N 66.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Iancar29

ITs now SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY 2........looks to be still gaining strength.

What the chances tat we ll get the tail of this if it keeps on veering to the east.....?


ANYONE THINKIN TAT?

We havent gotten a descent tail of a hurricane in some time.

maquiladora

If Bill does what he's forecast to do, then he'll recurve out to sea before getting close to the US mainland and head towards Europe. Of course the colder waters won't keep the system at anywhere near the strength he'll have been before that but we could be in for some wet/windy weather. It's a long way off though. Depends on how fast he speeds back over the Atlantic.

Iancar29

Ye i know its a good bit off to tell but ye ...... as u said it looks like it could head our way .....

maquiladora

Iancar29

Awh Cool tnks!

Tats exactly wat i was lookin for!......

Trogdor

Cat 4 now and still strengthening..

HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST WED AUG 19 2009

BILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED 25-30 N MI WIDE EYE WITH EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS
TO NEAR -80C. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE
115 KT AT 06Z...AND THE CURRENT SATELLITE SIGNATURE SUGGESTS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM. BASED ON THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE BILL.

THE MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 295-300 DEGREES AT 14 KT. BILL IS ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N60W AND A MID/UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N BETWEEN 69W-75W. THESE FEATURES ARE
CURRENTLY CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS FORECAST BILL TO
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THIS WEAKNESS DURING THE NEXT
48-72 HR...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE EARLIEST TURN AND THE
NOGAPS/UKMET SHOWING THE LATEST TURN. AFTER THAT...A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
CAUSE BILL TO RECURVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A
LARGE MODEL SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED AFTER 72 HR...WITH
THE NOGAPS ON ONE SIDE BRINGING BILL NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODELS ON THE OTHER SIDE CALLING FOR A SHARP
TURN OUT TO SEA. OVERALL...THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DO
LIKEWISE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

BILL HAS STRENGTHENED IN SPITE OF BEING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 12 HR...SO
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. BY 48-72 HR...BILL SHOULD
INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHEAR...SO
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.
AFTER 72 HR...BILL SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AS IT
MOVES OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND A FASTER WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...
WHICH ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE...MAY PRODUCE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SUPERIMPOSED ON THE GENERAL TREND OF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 18.0N 54.9W 115 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 19.0N 56.8W 120 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 20.6N 59.4W 125 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 22.5N 62.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 24.4N 64.4W 120 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 29.5N 68.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 36.0N 68.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 44.0N 62.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Sponge Bob

It tracks a bit nearer on every iteration but the balance of forecasts still has it nearer Iceland for now .

maquiladora wrote: »

Iancar29

If Bill comes anywhere near Ireland and has still a bit of strength left in it

IM GOIN ON A ROAD TRIP TO THE WEST!!!! hA! WOOOOOO!

Last big tail was 2002 from wat i can remember!

Riamfada

Ill be out West aswel

maquiladora

Here's how the remains of Bill could look next Wednesday based on the latest GFS model run.

jumpguy

What are the chances of Bill coming to Ireland and how localised is it? Would it effect a county or most of the West coast?

TheInquisitor

Check out www.stormpulse.com and click on show forcast models. About half now headin close to ireland now. We would get a dumping of rain if it hit us some bad winds but thats all nothing crazy

M.T. Cranium

The models keep suggesting that Bill is heading for some kind of rendezvous with Ireland on Tuesday night or Wednesday, after slamming into Newfoundland on Monday. Some of the more recent GFS runs have looked quite strong in terms of wind potential for Ireland, gusts to 50 or even 60 mph are indicated on the maps. Other models are not as bullish but with the GFS, it tends to be feast or famine, either they nail systems days in advance or have a tendency to go overboard on them.

I'd have to say that a strong solution makes sense given the way the storm is recurving into a strong wave in the westerlies now over the New England region of the northeast US. From the merger that is about to take place over the weekend, the jet stream has been raging all summer long basically across the Atlantic and there's no obvious reason why it would suddenly weaken with this added energy thrown in. So extra-tropical Bill is going to be racing along the unusually strong summer jet stream with the same kind of support as winter low pressure systems often have, and the energy jolt from the tropical moisture. It could be one of the stronger tropical remnants to hit Ireland in recent years.

The plan is to keep updating forecasts about every 12 hours on the forecast thread.

maquiladora

Thanks MT. Do you think there is a chance we could see something like what we got with Hurricane Charley (1986?) There is an old thread about this event here - http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054992531

M.T. Cranium

Well, I notice that Charley took a more southerly track than Bill is expected to do, which brought it in towards Ireland from the southwest. This allowed for more rainfall than I would expect Bill to bring, since there would have been a longer period of over-running warm frontal rains with Charley.

On the other hand, Bill looks capable of bringing strong winds together with at least moderate amounts of rain and there could be a thunderstorm aspect to consider too.

So all things considered, at this stage, I would have to say, less flooding potential, more of a wind event. But then there's the question of whether these model forecasts are even approximately correct, at this distance out.

Min

I think this storm is going to be a non issue looking at some of the weather forecasts.

Blame it on the

Min wrote: »

I think this storm is going to be a non issue looking at some of the weather forecasts.

I wouldn't be so sure of that

http://ibiseye.com/

I think this bully will cause some problems next week. We'll just have to wait and see. I'm betting the jet stream will bring it closer again but whether it stays an ETD near Ireland/UK or re-gains a bit of strenght is anyones guess right now.

maquiladora

Well the models and the NHC have shifted the track south and now all of Ireland is within the 5 day cone, however the strength of the system is now forecast to be weaker at that stage. Still a long way off though.

M.T. Cranium

For those who want to follow Bill's progress towards Newfoundland and the central Atlantic (by late Monday) here's a satellite image that should update as you click on it, check the date and time stamp at the top to be sure it's recent (UTC is GMT basically, so add one hour to get your local time).

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_ecan_1070_100.jpg

I expect the track to run just off Cape Cod and the Islands tonight (local time) to just south of Halifax NS by mid-day Sunday to Cape Breton Island (eastern NS) Sunday night to southeast Newfoundland (inland) Monday mid-day and then across the Atlantic at a latitude close to 50-51 N.

This will have it approaching Ireland late Tuesday when it should start to curve more northeast towards Mayo and Donegal. The track is promising for strong winds to sweep across much of Ireland Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, but intensity will be the question, if it keeps filling (central pressure rising) then the wind speeds could fall off to rather modest values like 30-40 mph on approach, but there's potential for higher gusts to maintain themselves right to the west coast on Wednesday morning around 0300-0600 on the current guidance.

The warm sector of the remnant storm (technically I don't think they will be calling it a TS or TD at this point because it will have expanded into an extra-tropical low) will contain tropical air that is currently 27/23 (temp 27 dp 23) over the Atlantic, and so will only modify slightly as it gets dragged across waters with temps near 20 C most of the ocean passage. It could still be something like 22/20 when it approaches Ireland. With this sort of set-up it could remain rather stable and turn into a sort of prolonged light rain and drizzle event with a few embedded heavier showers, but if the dynamics were strong enough there could be a thundery occlusion or cold front in the mix.

Should be an interesting few days as we watch Bill's progress. For Nova Scotia, it is likely to bring 100-200 mms of rain and winds as strong as 120 km/hr near the coast, rising to 150 km/hr if the centre makes landfall as it could do east of Halifax. For Newfoundland, those same values are likely except that the rainfall will be more like 50-100 mms north of the track and 25 mms south of the track.

Some time around Monday morning I may post some Newfoundland radars so you can watch the centre crossing the island. At this stage, it is likely to be downgrading from cat-1 hurricane to tropical storm to extra-tropical in rapid succession but of course if a 70 mph wind is blowing your boat around in a marina, it really doesn't matter what somebody in a distant weather office is calling the event.

M.T. Cranium

At this time (21z Sunday) the cat-1 hurricane is very close to the eastern shore of Nova Scotia, and on track as per the GFS and GEM to track rapidly east across the Atlantic after crossing Newfoundland tonight and early Monday. The GFS and Euro models seem to be trying to deflate Bill as it approaches Ireland and they keep the winds suppressed to the south. The GEM is more aggressive bringing the centre north of Mayo (rather than a decaying centre crossing Ireland).

The NHC seems to agree with the GEM scenario and have tracks through Scotland or near the northern Isles. All I feel sure about, at this point, is that a significant low will be near Ireland on Tuesday night. The details are just too unclear to make a definitive call at this time, but it seems reasonable to expect winds in the 30-40 mph range and rainfalls in the 25-50 mm range from the storm, in general, with more impact on the west than the east, and temperatures near 20 C.

There could be more significant impacts locally, but there has already been so much rain in western Ireland that this moderate outcome would in itself have a fairly major impact (cumulative effect, given that Monday could also bring its own 10-15 mm rainfalls).

Next post from me about Bill likely to be around 0500, at which time I will post the eastern Newfoundland radar which should be interesting. Meanwhile, here's the radar for eastern Nova Scotia, you may be able to detect the eye of the decaying hurricane on this.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=XMB

maquiladora

Thanks for the update MT.

kerry1960

Interesting , thanks MTC .

kerry1960

Looking at some reports from your side of the pond MTC .

Chris Fournier's report ..........

By Chris Fournier
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Bill swept past Nova Scotia today, felling trees, swamping roads and leaving about 40,000 people without power, as it made its way up the Atlantic Coast to Newfoundland.
The storm, 75 kilometers (47 miles) east of Halifax, is moving northeast at 56 kilometers an hour, with maximum sustained winds of 120 kilometers an hour, Environment Canada said on its Web site as of 3 p.m. local time. The storm is a Category 1 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. It’s expected to be below hurricane strength when it reaches Newfoundland overnight.
“It’s now making its way up the Eastern Shore toward Cape Breton,” said Jodi Sibley, a spokeswoman for the Nova Scotia Emergency Management Office. “We’ve seen some impact along the coast. We haven’t seen any severe damage.”
Wharves and other structures may be damaged in southern Newfoundland as high waves and a meter-high storm surge meet spring tides. “Spectators are strongly advised to keep a safe distance from the shoreline due to the rapid approach of large waves,” Environment Canada said.
Earlier today, at least five people were swept up in the storm’s waves at Arcadia National Park in Bar Harbor, Maine, the Associated Press said. The U.S. Coast Guard rescued two individuals and is searching for the other three, AP said.
Kyle
Halifax Stanfield International Airport canceled all afternoon flights and Marine Atlantic suspended ferry service between Nova Scotia and Newfoundland for 24 hours. Rain fell as much as 20 millimeters an hour, creating dangerous driving conditions, Environment Canada said. Rain bands now moving into eastern Nova Scotia, Cape Breton and Prince Edward Island will start affecting Newfoundland later today.
“We’re seeing a lot of vehicles off the road due to hydroplaning,” Joe Taplin of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police told CBC Radio. “This is a very heavy-rainfall hurricane and we’re advising people to stay home until the storm passes.”
In 2008, Hurricane Kyle hit the Maritimes as a Category 1 storm, causing tree damage and power outages from winds that were sustained for three to four hours, according to U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration storm data.
Hoping for the Best
Hurricane Juan, which made landfall in Nova Scotia in September 2003, killed at least four people, uprooted 100 million trees and left some residents without power for as long as two weeks.
“We’re not taking this lightly,” said Hugh MacLeod, 50, a Halifax-based entrepreneur who was buying a part for an emergency generator at a local hardware store yesterday. “We’re anticipating the worst, preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.”
The Home Depot in Halifax sold out of generators on Aug. 21 and is expecting a delivery of 100 today, according to Carrie MacDougall, the assistant manager. The store put in a “rush hurricane order,” taking delivery of an extra 1 1/2 tractor- trailer loads of bottled water.
“The last thing you want is to be stuck in the dark,” MacDougall said in a telephone interview. “People are a lot more proactive this time.”
Oilfields
A tropical storm warning was issued for eastern Nova Scotia, from Hubbards to Lismore. A hurricane watch remains in effect from Ecum Secum to Point Aconi. Other advisories for the Nova Scotia coast were discontinued.
A tropical storm warning remains posted for the southeastern coast of Newfoundland, from Stones Cove to Bonavista, and a tropical storm watch is in effect for the west and south coast from Partsons Pond to Stones Cove and on the east coast from Bonavista to Harbour Deep.
Oilfields off the coast of eastern Canada operated by Suncor Energy Inc., Canada’s biggest oil company, and Husky Energy Inc. weren’t affected by the storm, the companies said today.
Sable Offshore Energy Project, a gas field 125 miles off Nova Scotia that’s run by Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp., yesterday completed an evacuation 200 workers from its idled platform, said Margot Bruce-Connell, a spokeswoman for Irving, Texas-based Exxon.
The 2009 hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, got off to a quiet start before three named storms formed in a period of 48 hours Aug. 15 and 16. Tropical storms Ana and Claudette have since dissipated.
Nova Scotia, Canada’s seventh-most-populous province with about 940,000 people, has an area about the size of West Virginia, making it the second-smallest of Canada’s 13 provinces and territories.

M.T. Cranium

Well, as I posted in the forecast thread, we now have Bill, and Bill's evil twin, a second strong low timed to move across the north on Thursday night and Friday morning. See forecast thread for my take on the results of these two storms, following a third disturbance already moving into the west today.

I'm still expecting Bill to pack a bit of a punch, but the "evil twin" looks quite strong, and will work with the moisture and heat energy left over from Bill when the jet stream contracts further, and deepens the Thursday low to create a strong SW to W wind gradient.

Given the saturated state of the ground in some parts of Ireland, all of this new rainfall is bound to create flooding problems, and the strong winds will be working on trees that in some cases have weakened anchor support in the wet ground, so when the really strong winds arrive later in the week there could be some power outages (I almost typed outrages, perhaps that is the right word for this weather). :eek:

force eleven

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/083817.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Ex Hurricane Bill to bring gales to the west coast? Before the 'evil twin' appears for the knockout 'blow'. Ground is certainly saturated in many parts, this weeks extra rainfail is bound to cause some rivers to reach danger levels IMO, really awful summer we've had once again.

maquiladora

The new NHC track shows ex-tropical Bill with tropical storm force winds just off the NW Irish coast Tuesday night, previous advisory showed a weaker depression at the same point.

At the moment though it looks like the stronger winds will be coming along with Bill's twin. Interesting week ahead.

Tactical

Going to be watching this week with much interest.

The thoughts of two significent weather events so close together could lead to a busy time for me professionally (not emergency services related) and for the emergency services.

I remember the remenatnts of Charley many years ago, not thats this weeks forecast events seem to similar but like people have already stated with the stauration level of the ground being what it is there could be potential problems with trees and increased water levels.

One things that could be interesting to take into account will be tidal levels for areas such as Cork city and similar areas. Cork being pretty low lying and having a major tidal river running through the heart of the city has long been prone to flooding under such conditions. Wind direction can also play a part in the tidal levels to some degree and I've seen this come into play in several harbours around Ireland in the past.

Definately could be an interesting week ahead

EDIT:-

Tide information for Cork:-

http://www.myforecast.com/bin/tide.m?city=66180&metric=false&tideLocationID=T0532

Tide information for River Shannon (Tarbert in Co. Kerry):-

http://www.myforecast.com/bin/tide.m?city=66180&metric=false&tideLocationID=T2336

(Mods, if the links are not allowed please accept my apologies in advance and feel free to remove the links.)

Redsunset

today's report on bill from chris fournier and alex morales,


Hurricane Bill weakened to a tropical storm over the North Atlantic after sweeping across eastern Canada’s Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, felling trees and causing power cuts.
Bill’s maximum sustained winds weakened to 70 miles (110 kilometers) per hour from 75 mph earlier today, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on its Web site shortly after 4:30 a.m. local time. Gradual weakening was forecast as the storm crosses the ocean toward ireland and Scotland.

“Even though Bill is no longer a tropical cyclone, it is expected to produce a large area of storm- and gale-force winds over the North Atlantic during the next day or two,” the center said. The system lost its “tropical characteristics,” meaning its primary energy source is now the air rather than the sea.


Rough surf earlier killed a seven-year- old girl in Maine. Bill cut power to 40,000 customers in Nova Scotia, toppled trees and swamped roads.

The eye of the storm was about 190 miles northeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, and moving east-northeast at 43 mph, according to the latest advisory from the U.S. center. Tropical storm-force winds extended up to 315 miles from the eye. The center predicted that Bill will maintain storm force as it speeds across the Atlantic, crossing western ireland, northern ireland and western Scotland in two days.






i see met eireann are not making much of this at all.just the normal wet windy weather.hope their wrong