Hurricane BILL

Tactical

redsunset wrote: »

i see met eireann are not making much of this at all.just the normal wet windy weather.hope their wrong

I noticed that too, although they have upgraded their predictions from breezy but no mention yet of anything approaching possible high wind speeds.

But then again I've also noticed that every time rain is forecast they seem now to predict spot flooding. Ok, the ground is saturated but there is such a thing as "crying wolf" and that is comming from someone who has the greatest respect for our national weather service.

Redsunset

joe bastardi makes bill sound good,


LOOK OUT EUROPE, HERE COMES BILL!

Been very very very busy.. After all since I think you are going to have an "interesting" winter, I better be making sure with studying patterns. But this post has to to do with protecting my European fans from Ill will from a storm named Bill
I like what the European model is doing. Nova Scotia gets hit on Sunday then the storm races out to south of Iceland by Wednesday into Ireland and into northwest Europe Thursday..
The overall pattern is stormy over the northeast atlantic anyway. The storm certainly will not be tropical in nature but tropical cyclones contain large amounts of heat that just dont disappear, so when they approach the long wave positions, which is clearly in the northeast atlantic, the remnants of the storm are capable of intensifying..
I am now doing some videos on our free site, the site you see, and tomorrow since I am going into work, if I get a chance, I will try to cut a video on this matter. Since I have free reign as to what I what to talk about, I will be doing some videos on Euro weather and if I can post as much as I want, I may dedicate one video a week to what is happening across the pond. In the meantime, Bill may come a calling for Ireland and England Thursday

maquiladora

Min

I hope this is nothing big, we had enough of extreme weather with rain, it is hard to farm at the moment with land conditions being bad we don't need a bad storm like some want, if you want it bad then I hope you get the power cuts and whatever else......I certainly don't want it.

Sponge Bob

Just very wet . Another wet storm on Friday morning says MT

Storm 10

I find that I have lost confidence in Met Eireann of late they cant even get the following days weather right now. With regard to Hurricane Bill they said yesterday for the week ahead that there would not be too much rain or wind from it nothing to worry about, I can see all this changing as most forecasters are saying different.

M.T. Cranium

I wouldn't be too hard on them, they don't want to have a situation where the storm is over-predicted. It's a frustration for any forecaster when you can see that a system is most likely to be moderate in impact, and so the error if any will be either "this was more than we expected" or "this was nothing much." And then you have the regional differences to consider.

All things considered, I figure that the Thursday event that I'm calling Bill's evil twin is going to be considerably more noticeable to the general public than Bill ... which is not to say that Bill will go un-noticed. If Bill was heading into the upper level environment predicted for Thursday, then it would be a very strong storm. It's that second storm dragging along behind that is keeping Bill from gathering full force in this new life as a post-tropical low.

Another thing to keep in mind, it is still quite intense now at 35 W and will remain that way until it reaches about 15 W on Tuesday evening. So we are bound to get that surge of anticipation seeing such an intense low heading in closer and closer, but the dynamics look like they would weaken slowly just as the low crosses Ireland. If that proves not to be the case, and perhaps we would get some warning of that from later model runs, then yes, Bill could turn out to be a strong storm. I think it will play out as a moderate event with the highest impact on the southwest and south coast.

Tactical

You're right when you say if Met Eireann do "over-rate" an expected weather event then people generally do say "it was much less than expected" but like the persistant "risk of localised flooding" it is definately better to know that things may be a little difficult.

Ok, yes I'm the person who said about "crying wolf" but I'm looking at the rain fall in conjunction with stronger than normal winds rather than the typical rainfall we've been experiencing recently.

Very, very interested in Bill's "evil twin" and will await updates with much interest.

Blame it on the

Martin King (TV3 weather) announced Wednesday to be "a bit of a hiccup".

I'm looking forward to an "outdoor" forecast when the Ex H4 "hiccup" throws some wind and rain our way...

http://www.tv3.ie/weather.php

Even RTE glossed over it nicely. The least detailed weather forecasts I've EVER seen.

Seriously guys, what's a "hiccup" in forecasting terms?

Min

Sky news say upto 2 inches of rain from the system.

Blame it on the

Min wrote: »

Sky news say upto 2 inches of rain from the system.

saw that Min.

Guess they were slightly more open as it has a greater impact on Eire than GB. At least for now, anyway.

howlinwolf

hi all...... i have to agree,rte and tv3 are giving a non event on wednesday,yet bbc and some american channels are predicting something bigger.....somebodys gonna be badly wrong. you would tend to believe your own weather channels but im not so sure.

Blame it on the

howlinwolf wrote: »

hi all...... i have to agree,rte and tv3 are giving a non event on wednesday,yet bbc and some american channels are predicting something bigger.....somebodys gonna be badly wrong. you would tend to believe your own weather channels but im not so sure.

As far as I'm concerned, I'm not going to run outside screaming "end of the world" but what I AM going to do is make sure that I get to the shops early 2moro and get enough supplies (including batteries) for at least 3 days. Just to be on the safe side, of course;)

M.T. Cranium

Keeping a close eye on developments ... I think it will sweep in very quickly Tuesday night and tend to dump most of its load on the western third of Ireland where, let's face it, they are pretty much used to heavy rain by now. Further east it may be a case of any localized showers getting intense enough to unleash a locally heavy amount of rain. Winds will be nothing much more than what has accompanied half a dozen other fronts this past summer season, gusts to 40 mph but possibly 50 near the south and west coasts.

The thing of more concern will be the brief interval between Bill's moderate impact and the stronger punch from Bill's evil twin. This is going to be bearing down on western Ireland as early as Thursday morning, so not much time to react later Wednesday if it does brighten for a while (this mention of warm sunshine in the official forecast is a courageous call, air this humid can easily develop a protective layer of low cloud).

What I hope not to see is some lame effort somewhere to claim that Bill slowed down and arrived on Thursday. These are already two separate lows, the nucleus for Bill's evil twin is right now a rather weak frontal wave near Nova Scotia. It only begins to develop on Wednesday afternoon in the central Atlantic when remnants of Bill should be over the UK mainly.

Blame it on the

come to think of it, I have a broken tree in the back garden (branch nearly broke off during recent bad weather). I'll take the saw to it when I get back from the shops in the morning...

howlinwolf

it seems from the rte weather that they are classing them as 2 seperate systems with a day of sunshine and showers crammed in between(get the sun cream ready).at the moment they say the 2 will be of equal strength......time will tell

JanuarySnowstor

Guys, this system looks angry going by latest satellites.
Ex hurricanes always provide something different to the norm, and for me this system looks a biggie.
Expect a large upgrade on warnings tomorrow esp for the Southwest.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Rose of tralee gets cancelled also, as the storm coincides with it tomorrow evening.
As for rte forecasts over the beeb, there's only one winner there and the fact that the beeb are more concerned about this than our own speaks volumes. Who'll be right, time will tell!
My moneys on this storm making headline news

Iancar29

Once again im gettin annoyed at Met Éireann! , I dont know how they can just go along sayin the usual ....." bit of rain here, bit of wind there"

Does it not make better sense to say to people (especially farmers or most people watchin the weather for a big reason) , tat it could get Really bad and state ITS THE END OF a HURRICANE rather than sayin the usual and being wrong in that sense!?!......Just seen Sky News's Weather forecast , at least there mentionin it , do its gonna go by pretty quickly its still a STORM.

Im hopefully gonna go catch some pics of this storm when it arrives.
Mite contact a good friend of mine and see would he be able to get a story goin about Met Eireann's L A T E warnings if it actually does any damage.

* STORM CHASER IN THE MAKIN*

kerry1960

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Guys, this system looks angry going by latest satellites.
Ex hurricanes always provide something different to the norm, and for me this system looks a biggie.
Expect a large upgrade on warnings tomorrow esp for the Southwest.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Rose of tralee gets cancelled also, as the storm coincides with it tomorrow evening.
As for rte forecasts over the beeb, there's only one winner there and the fact that the beeb are more concerned about this than our own speaks volumes. Who'll be right, time will tell!
My moneys on this storm making headline news

Im hoping very much you're wrong there JS , my location is not a nice place to be in a wind storm .

Blame it on the

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_radar.html

go to the "forecast rainfall" to the left and click on Wednesday right through to Friday.

please note the weather advisory in the top right hand corner...

Don't get alarmed, just get prepared.

Goodnight

M.T. Cranium

You can follow Bill's progress here:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_sigwx_1070_100.jpg


At time of writing, the storm is around 50 N 35 W or basically about one-third of the way from Newfoundland to western Ireland. Lines on the map are every 10 degrees. If you're looking in closer to morning, I would expect the low to be near 51 N 30 W.

It has lost some intensity since leaving Newfoundland. Continue to think it will be of medium intensity when it hits Ireland.

The "evil twin" storm is the weak frontal wave you can see near eastern Canada now. If you then look north to near Greenland, you'll see a small but well-formed low that represents the upper vortex that is expected to drop east-south-east to pick up the second storm and deepen it rapidly when it passes 30 W.

Date and time stamp on the image should tell you if it's current or not, UTC is same as GMT.

Elmo5

Oh wow, had a look at the rainfall forecast on met office UK. This is some amount of rainfall. Can't believe that Met Eireann aren't doing a bit more of a dance about it!:eek:

Sponge Bob

Iancar29 wrote: »

Once again im gettin annoyed at Met Éireann! , I dont know how they can just go along sayin the usual ....." bit of rain here, bit of wind there"

Firstly it will mainly affect the west and northwest .

Secondly it may veer off NW and not really hit anyone , still possible as I type .

Thirdly we get quite a few of these really in the west , sunday was rotten and sodden remember .

Lastly they don't really care unless they get caught rotten by another "Hurricane Charley " and have south Dublin giving out about them for months .

Redsunset

estofex warning

Ireland...

During the night, an active front from a new Atlantic depression will affect the country. Some marginal instabilty is predicted at the warm front/occlusion point, in very strong shear conditions: 450 m²/s² SREH, 17 m/s LLS, and 20 m/s DLS. LCL is very low. One should be alert if indeed a convective cell forms, the primary risks would be tornadoes and severe gusts









so again arises the question,why can't met eireann bring themselves to give some kind of caution,especially to those vunerable in the west.not everyone will have enough time to shelter if warning comes too late.

ah i give up with them.im not sayin for them to call an emergency but even a be prepared would be welcomed just in case a rogue cell does in fact materialise.like HELLO the risk is there.

maquiladora

Met Eireann forecast says "windy for a while" tonight. No mention of wind at all for Thursday...

Tactical

Ah, in fairness Met Eireann have issued a gale warning this morning at 0600.

South to southeast winds will reach gale force tonight on coasts from Wicklow Head to Roches Point to Slyne Head and on the south Irish Sea.

It looks like they expect it to rain also.

Rain will be heavy at times tonight across the south of the country and it will be windy for a while.

irishgeo

we are smack bang in the middle of the jet sream which will mean the storm will pass by fairly quickly but it means we could be in line for more tails of hurricanes.

Blame it on the

Good morning guys,

Now, from what I can make out we won't see too much of the bad weather until technically tomorrow. Remember the "hiccup" for Wednesday....well I'm not expecting any major alerts/warnings until this afternoon tbh.

Even then I imagine it will be along the lines of 20-30mm and up to 50mm in places. Strong winds also.

From what I know, Met Eireann have to issue weather alerts to Metoalarm for any to be shown on their site.

Keep a check on it throughout the day, if you wish.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteoalarm.asp

Don't get alarmed if we are shown as red later. We are well able to cope with some wind and rain once we are careful and don't go climbing any trees or pylons in the wee hours...:)

maquiladora

Ok, I've look at the 06Z GFS run and looks like the winds will start in the southwest around 9pm tonight. Strongest winds will affect the south and east coasts around 3am. Looks like strongest winds will only be about 40-50mph at the most so not too bad. Rainfall will be heaviest in the south and in the northwest.

Thursdays event will bring similar winds from early evening through the night but this time mainly hitting the west and north coasts. Rain doesn't look to be too bad for us from this based on this model run.

Overall, doesn't look like anything to be too concerned about but there may be some local flooding after the rain tonight.

Redsunset

good wack of wind for early hours wed in south and east

all charts will change on each run








then arrives the evil twin with a more sustained wind force














nice bit of water expected round the wee hours later





heres a look at that wind shear expected too as indicated earlier by estofex for potential tornadoe like activity