91% intend to vote?

Scofflaw

According to the Irish Times:

In truth, to continue the military metaphor, the campaign has yet to really engage. The two armies are sizing each other up in preliminary summer skirmishes. In September, the battle proper will start. This time round, however, polling for the Referendum Commission suggests 60 per cent of voters say they have at least some understanding of the treaty compared with 44 per cent just before last year’s vote, and 21 per cent two months out. The poll also showed an encouraging increased intention to vote – 91 per cent are extremely or quite likely to do so, they say.

Are 91% of people really going to vote? That would be an unheard of turnout, and would throw any calculations of margins out the window.

cordially,
Scofflaw

worldrepublic

Scofflaw wrote: »

According to the Irish Times:



Are 91% of people really going to vote? That would be an unheard of turnout, and would throw any calculations of margins out the window.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Don't trust the Irish Times on this. Last year their polls predicted a Yes... didn't work.

I think the second referendum was rushed. The timing for Lisbon I was much better, Celtic Tiger was purring away etc. Now it's just going to be a sense of chaos.... great depression time.... swine flu.... Fianna Fail.... billions handed over to the banksters... war on terror intensifying...etc. etc. By now it is just impossible to predict anything. It could easily swing in either direction. The government should have waited at least another year?

kippy

worldrepublic wrote: »

Don't trust the Irish Times on this. Last year their polls predicted a Yes... didn't work.

I think the second referendum was rushed. The timing for Lisbon I was much better, Celtic Tiger was purring away etc. Now it's just going to be a sense of chaos.... great depression time.... swine flu.... Fianna Fail.... billions handed over to the banksters... war on terror intensifying...etc. etc. By now it is just impossible to predict anything. It could easily swing in either direction. The government should have waited at least another year?

I'd say it was sh1t or get off the pot from the EU that "forced" the timing of this.

I really cant see anywhere near a 91% turnout. In a straw poll I conducted of 20 mates who are registered to vote, only 7, including my self, were planning on voting.

worldrepublic

You're right we'll probably all be too busy carrying swine flu infected bodies down to the local incinerator to bother voting, if you can believe a recent write up in The Sun.

Red Sleeping Beauty

Where did they get that 91% figure from anyway ?

anthony4335

I can and will never really understand why so many people choose not to vote. It doesn't take a whole lot out of your life to do so. But what really annoys me is the excuses that are given for not voting, everything from not registered to what difference will it make, I think that if you do not vote you should shut your mouth about everything related to politics. Sorry for the hijack of the thread. I hope we do get a high figure, at least the outcome of the vote will be the ture peoples voice. I also hope that people vote on the issue and not as a statement for or against the current goverment.

Hitman Actual

worldrepublic wrote: »

Don't trust the Irish Times on this. Last year their polls predicted a Yes... didn't work.

The article is saying that the polling figures are coming from the Referendum Commission, so the polling company/methods may not be the same. In any case, the IT polls (or more accurately TNS/MRBI polls) in the run-up to the last referendum showed the No side gaining every time and, iirc, being slightly ahead in the last poll with about 25% undecided. So their polls were quite accurate.

[Edit to add: I don't have access to the IT archives, but here is what they said the week before the referendum last year.]

worldrepublic wrote: »

I think the second referendum was rushed. The timing for Lisbon I was much better, Celtic Tiger was purring away etc. Now it's just going to be a sense of chaos.... great depression time.... swine flu.... Fianna Fail.... billions handed over to the banksters... war on terror intensifying...etc. etc. By now it is just impossible to predict anything. It could easily swing in either direction. The government should have waited at least another year?

The reform process has been ongoing since 2003. How much longer should we wait?

Regarding the OP, 91% is surely unrealistic. I'd expect a better turn-out than before, with maybe a better showing by Yes supporters and possibly a worse showing by No supporters, but 91%?

One interesting stat I do see is that people are more knowledgeable about the Treaty. This should translate to a boost for the Yes side, as the more people understand about the EU/Treaties, the more they tend to support that Treaty.

tolosenc

Hitman Actual wrote: »

One interesting stat I do see is that people are more knowledgeable about the Treaty. This should translate to a boost for the Yes side, as the more people understand about the EU/Treaties, the more they tend to support that Treaty.

They may claim to understand them, but not actually understand it...

Riskymove

a perfect example of how polling and reality can diverge

gizmo555

Scofflaw wrote: »

Are 91% of people really going to vote?

No.

The poll asked people how likely they are to vote. 91% said they were "extremely" or "quite" likely to vote. It's generally accepted in a democracy that voting is "a good thing" and respondents may want to give the reply that makes them seem like responsible citizens in the eyes of the pollster. The actual turnout on the day will not be remotely close to 91%. First time round, the Lisbon treaty got a turnout of 53.1%, which is exactly equal to the average turnout in all referenda since 1937, counting polls which had votes on two or more issues on the same day as a single referendum for the purposes of calculating average turnout. No referendum has ever got near 91% - the highest was 75.84% for the poll on the adoption of the 1937 constitution itself.

You can find figures for all referenda since 1937 here:

http://electionsireland.org/results/referendum/summary.cfm

Red Sleeping Beauty

The reasons people don't vote are as many as they are varied. There's gotta be more to it though than just the one person deciding not to vote.

What country in the world has the highest turnouts for elections and referendums does anyone know ?

marco_polo

Alan Rouge wrote: »

The reasons people don't vote are as many as they are varied. There's gotta be more to it though than just the one person deciding not to vote.

What country in the world has the highest turnouts for elections and referendums does anyone know ?

Not sure the number one country but those with compulsary voting such as Australia can see turnouts up to the mid 90s.

Red Sleeping Beauty

Oh yeah, forgot about them, don't they have some kind of tax imposed if you don't vote or something ?