Cyprus vs. Republic of Ireland - 05/09/09 [mod warning post #293]

LuckyLloyd

Interesting analysis that gives us a less than 50% chance still of qualifying either outright or via the playoffs.

Dublin_Gunner

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Interesting analysis that gives us a less than 50% chance still of qualifying either outright or via the playoffs.

But gies us a better chance than Portugal or Czech Republic... (just two I spotted).

I dont know what that site bases its percentiles on (didn;t bother reading into that much) but its seems very sqewed...

briany

Theres something oddly fascinating about all the statistical permutations at this end of the qualifying campaign, in some ways its the best thing about it.

eirebhoy

Dublin_Gunner wrote: »

But gies us a better chance than Portugal or Czech Republic... (just two I spotted).

Qualification is out of Portugal's hands and the Czechs will need to win their last 3 games to make the playoffs...

LuckyLloyd

Dublin_Gunner wrote: »

I dont know what that site bases its percentiles on (didn;t bother reading into that much) but its seems very sqewed...

The author has compiled their own ranking system and bases the numbers off that. I'd say the model is probably flawed (thus making the end percentages wrong), but it's an interesting approach nonetheless. And the way in which it is laid out kind of drives home where teams are in the qualification process. I think his being low on the Czech Republic, Portugal, Scotland / Norway etc is probably a good indicator for the quality of his predictions. When you get into the nitty gritty of those team's situations, you see that they have a lot of work to do themselves / plus they need results to fall their way around them. Hence they are extremely unlikely to make it.

Similar type of approach

briany

Unfortunately, none of these statistical analyses give Ireland a great chance of going top of the group . One thing that nobody seems to give creedence to is the idea that Cyprus could get a result against Italy. I know its quite unlikely but hey you never know do you? Remember back in 2001 when we all secretly hoped they'd get a draw with Portugal?

Dublin_Gunner

briany wrote: »

Unfortunately, none of these statistical analyses give Ireland a great chance of going top of the group . One thing that nobody seems to give creedence to is the idea that Cyprus could get a result against Italy. I know its quite unlikely but hey you never know do you? Remember back in 2001 when we all secretly hoped they'd get a draw with Portugal?

Its only unlikely given current world rankings. However, current form?? Anything is possible.

It took a 94th(?) minute strike for Italy to beat them the last time, and it took two own goals for Italy to get past Georgia at the weekend. They are getting the rub-of-the-green (no pun intended lol), and hopefully their luck will will run out.

A draw tomorrow, and I'll be a happy camper.

THough we must remember, that we also have to ensure we beat Montenegro.

LuckyLloyd

Cyprus will lose in Italy. You need to look at their record away against #1 seeds down through the years. Yes they have improved, but not to a level that gives them a realistic shot in such a tie. Particularly if Italy will have to win the game.

briany

Well of course its very unlikely that Cyprus will do it but hopefully by then we'll be in a position where we wont have to rely on such a result. I don't envy the Bulgarians their penultimate game away to Cyprus ,that game will not be easy for them. Anyway, I'm really hoping that we can beat Italy in october, though not expecting it. If we get the playoffs then i hope we get northern ireland as I said in an ealrier post for two reasons : 1. I think that theyd be the team we have the best chance of beating and 2. Who doesn't love a good derby?

noodler

A couple of things about this thread.

Completely agree that theres no sense in holding out hope for a Cypriot result in Italy.

A Bulgarian win tomorrow would be a nightmare result for us.

We have been just as, if not more, lucky than the Italians in this campaign.

Dublin_Gunner

noodler wrote: »

A couple of things about this thread.

Completely agree that theres no sense in holding out hope for a Cypriot result in Italy.

A Bulgarian win tomorrow would be a nightmare result for us.

We have been just as, if not more, lucky than the Italians in this campaign.

I agree, except for the bold bit!! If anything I've thought we've had to fight and scrap for our points, and have been unlucky, particularly in Bari.

The Italians are jammy baxtards!

AthAnRi

Anyone know where I can see the goals for this match? Still haven't seen it as I was in Manchester at the weekend and they were not showing it in Waxy O'Connors. Didn't get a chance to get to O'Sheas.

A link would be greatly appreciated

briany

Try youtube? maybe soccer republic.ie or the fifa website.......