Tropical Storm ERIKA

L.O.F.T

From the NOAA site,



There is a high chance, greater than 50% of tropical cyclone formation in this area during the next 48 hours. Ominous looking formation. After a quiet early season it would appear that there is a steady wave of formations in the Atlantic in the last few weeks

maquiladora

Recon flight will be heading for 94l in a few hours, will probably be classified as a TD or TS then. Forecast track is fairly unpredictable at the moment.

Trogdor

Now Tropical Storm Erika


TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HAS FOUND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1007 MB AND A CLOSED...ALBEIT...BROAD
CIRCULATION. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 52 KT WITH SFMR DATA OF
ABOUT 45 KT. THUS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS FORMED WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ERIKA IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM SEEMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE SSTS ARE WARM AND SHEAR
REMAINS MODERATE. HOWEVER...IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE SHEAR NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES FROM A MID-OCEANIC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
ERIKA WEAKENING AFTER TWO DAYS DUE TO THE SHEAR. THE TWO BIG
OUTLIERS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE THE GFDL/HWRF...WHICH FORM AN
ANTICYCLONE NEAR ERIKA AND MAKE IT A HURRICANE. THE NHC FORECAST
WILL SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN
WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR TAKES OVER. THE NHC FORECAST WILL
BE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS OF NOTE THAT ALMOST ALL OF
THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW ERIKA EVENTUALLY BECOMING A
HURRICANE...DESPITE THE SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8...THOUGH THE CENTER APPEARS TO
HAVE DONE SOME REFORMATION SINCE YESTERDAY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE ERIKA TO MOVE ALONG
THAT GENERAL COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...
THE STORM COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT NEARS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS RATHER
UNCERTAIN AS THE TRACK PROBABLY HAS A STRONG DEPENDENCE ON THE
FUTURE INTENSITY OF ERIKA. A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY MOVE MORE
TO THE WEST...SIMILAR TO THE UKMET OR GFS MODELS. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY FEEL THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
MOVE MORE TO THE RIGHT...LIKE THE HWRF/GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR FORECAST
IN THE LONGER-TERM.

BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN THAT AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.2N 57.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 17.7N 58.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 18.4N 60.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.1N 62.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 19.8N 63.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.0N 66.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 23.0N 69.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 25.0N 72.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

maquiladora

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN SEARCHING
FOR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME QUITE DISORGANIZED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED
TRACK. HOWEVER THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE
MULTIPLE CENTERS...SO THE ADVISORY POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND
PROBABLY REPRESENTS A MEAN CENTER...OR THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THE INITIAL MOTION...270/4...IS OF
COURSE ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWING THE TRACK GUIDANCE...A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS PREDICTED TO RESUME. ERIKA SHOULD BE
STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR A STRONGER CYCLONE...E.G. THE
GFDL AND HWRF...AND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR A
WEAKER SYSTEM...E.G. THE GFS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK
FORECAST.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ERIKA HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE...
WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF
THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGES. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN
DISRUPTING THE CYCLONE BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FARTHER TO THE WEST IS
LIKELY TO IMPART INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON ERIKA...WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...BUT BELOW THE
CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT SOME OF THESE NUMERICAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE HWRF AND GFDL...
HAVE SHOWN A HIGH BIAS FOR A COUPLE OF THIS YEAR'S ATLANTIC
TROPICAL CYCLONES.

GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 17.0N 59.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 17.3N 60.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 17.8N 61.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 18.4N 62.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 19.0N 64.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 20.3N 66.9W 50 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 22.0N 69.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 24.0N 72.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Blame it on the

No disrespect to Erika but take a look at her big brother, over Mali, south west of Algeria.

http://ibiseye.com/

I've nicknamed him "Fred"...:cool:

presumptuous I know but I was bored...

P.S:- click on "show clouds"

M.T. Cranium

Have you noticed, so far only the boys have visited Ireland?

Blame it on the

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Have you noticed, so far only the boys have visited Ireland?

lol MT - yeah

sexist weather! What ever happened to girl power? Erika sure as heck doesn't have much...

200motels

Last Update: 4-SEP-2009 06:48am EDT
The low pressure area that was once Erika is now located to the southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and continues to drift westward across the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Over the last few hours, satellite imagery has shown a deepening of showers and thunderstorms associated with this remnant low. These thunderstorms will produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall today and tonight across Puerto Rico, the northern Leeward Islands and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. However, the remnant low continues to push westward into an area of strong wind shear, so re-development in the next 12 to 24 hours is unlikely.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a strong tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa early Thursday is moving to the west around 10 to 15 mph. The wave is now located around 175 miles to the east-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. This tropical wave already has numerous showers and thunderstorms with it with a cyclonic motion in the cloud mass. This suggests slow development is possible during the next few days as it moves west into favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Tropical waves along 33 west south of 19 north and along 50 west south of 16 north remain weak with no signs of organized features.
By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski

Tactical

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Have you noticed, so far only the boys have visited Ireland?

Good point.

Anyone notice how they keep weeing on us too

Boys or girls, lets hope that they'll decide to stay away and give us a break for a while.

Blame it on the

Tactical wrote: »

Good point.

Anyone notice how they keep weeing on us too

Boys or girls, lets hope that they'll decide to stay away and give us a break for a while.

Hey T, if you sprinkle when you tinkle.....

lmao

but really, we do need a break. Ten to fourteen days do ya?

Tactical

Ten to fourteen would be great, fantastic infact because I have some leave comming up very shortly.

So if even bit of dry weather could be organised it'd be brilliant

Blame it on the

Tactical wrote: »

Ten to fourteen would be great, fantastic infact because I have some leave comming up very shortly.

So if even bit of dry weather could be organised it'd be brilliant

MT got it sorted for you T. Check out the daily forecast. Windstorm to get through first though. Just to get rid of the cobwebs...;)

Blame it on the

Now back on track.

Erika is now a tropical rain storm.

Awaiting "Fred" with patience...:eek: