TNS/MRBI poll, FF at 17%

Pride Fighter · 02-09-2009 9:04pm #1

FF 17%
FG 34%
Labour 24%
SF 10%

Government satisfaction

11% Satisfied
4% dont know
85% Dissatisfied

In tomorrows Irish times and was just on the 9 o clock news.

Wow.

Edit to add link: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0903/1224253745882.html?digest=1

dresden8 · 02-09-2009 9:06pm

Anybody any idea how many seats FF would likely get with those results?

Pride Fighter · 02-09-2009 9:08pm

This is huge news. I'll take a stab at seat numbers if an election were to happen, using these figures.

FF- 35 seats
FG- 65 seats
Labour- 42 seats
Greens- 0
SF- 7 seats
Independents + PBP + SP- 16

Pride Fighter · 02-09-2009 9:09pm

dresden8 wrote: »

Anybody any idea how many seats FF would likely get with those results?

I just took a guess based on the numbers. But with PR-STV it can be tough to guess. Take my figures with a pinch of salt.

tedstriker · 02-09-2009 9:13pm

Could be to do with this:
Live register figures & Unemployment rates.

The next 4-6 months is going to be f*cking depressing in this country. The recession is really going to start hitting home for many people.

Lockstep · 02-09-2009 9:17pm

Would PBP get a seat?

Socialists would get at least 1 (Plus a new MEP as Joe would probabaly co-opt his seat)

Pride Fighter · 02-09-2009 9:20pm

kickoutthejams wrote: »

Would PBP get a seat?

Socialists would get at least 1 (Plus a new MEP as Joe would probabaly co-opt his seat)

PBP will get 2, so will the SP. PBP will win in Dun-Laoighre and Dublin South Central. SP will win in Dublin west and Dublin North. Thats what I think anyway.

Time Magazine · 02-09-2009 9:21pm

Pride Fighter wrote: »

This is huge news. I'll take a stab at seat numbers if an election were to happen, using these figures.

FF- 35 seats
FG- 65 seats
Labour- 42 seats
Greens- 0
SF- 7 seats
Independents + PBP + SP- 16

Good estimates. One thing though: SF on 10% only getting 7 seats? Labour got 10.1% in 2007 and took home 20.

But with FG holding 65 seats, SF would be irrelevant tbh.

Pride Fighter · 02-09-2009 9:27pm

The Economist wrote: »

Good estimates. One thing though: SF on 10% only getting 7 seats? Labour got 10.1% in 2007 and took home 20.

But with FG holding 65 seats, SF would be irrelevant tbh.

SF get hardly any transfers. With the spectre of Northern Ireland casting its shadow over the party it will only be another 10-20 years when the party is more transfer friendly. Labour will get FF and FG transfers, FG people will say rather Labour than FF and FF people will say the opposite. The possibility of a Labour/FF and SF coalition is there with the figures I have put up. My figures are a guess and I dont envisage that happening.

Lockstep · 02-09-2009 9:31pm

Where do you envisage the SP and SWP getting seats?

Pride Fighter · 02-09-2009 9:36pm

kickoutthejams wrote: »

Where do you envisage the SP and SWP getting seats?

PBP will win in Dun-Laoighre (Richard Boyd Barrett) and Dublin South Central(Joan Collins). SP will win in Dublin west(Joe Higgins) and Dublin North(Clare Daly).

Dob74 · 02-09-2009 9:37pm

SP will get 3 seats, Cork North Central(Mick Barry), Clare Daly and Joe Higgins. If the election was held before christmas.

Will this draw FF and the Greens closer together?
Or will the government fall before christmas.

NewDubliner · 02-09-2009 9:37pm

Noticed this in the IT article:

In Dublin Labour is in first place with 25 per cent, one point ahead of Fine Gael on 24 per cent with Fianna Fail trailing back in fourth place in the capital on 11 per cent, a point behind Sinn Fein.

It looks like the decentralisation chickens have come home to roost.

ateam · 02-09-2009 9:42pm

Pride Fighter wrote: »

FF 17%
FG 34%
Labour 24%
SF 10%

Government satisfaction

11% Satisfied
4% dont know
85% Dissatisfied

In tomorrows Irish times and was just on the 9 o clock news.

Wow.

With these figures I would guess:

FF 60 -18
FG 62 +11
Lab 33 +12
Green 1 - 5
SF 4 unchanged
Ind 6

FG/Labour coalition, with a clear majority.

FF will lose Dublin seats, but retain most of their rural seats.

A Green wipeout, Ryan or Gormley might hold on. If Harney runs again, she'll lose as well.

Pride Fighter · 02-09-2009 9:42pm

NewDubliner wrote: »

Noticed this in the IT article:In Dublin Labour is in first place with 25 per cent, one point ahead of Fine Gael on 24 per cent with Fianna Fail trailing back in fourth place in the capital on 11 per cent, a point behind Sinn Fein.

It looks like the decentralisation chickens have come home to roost.

Labour are strong in Dublin, Leinster except one or 2 constituencies and Munster. Their perennial weakness is west of the shannon and the border counties. If they were to right that weakness they would no longer be half a party and could drive real change on the island.

02-09-2009 9:45pm

The Economist wrote: »

Good estimates. One thing though: SF on 10% only getting 7 seats? Labour got 10.1% in 2007 and took home 20.

But with FG holding 65 seats, SF would be irrelevant tbh.

Particularly as Labour's support is evenly spread, while Sinn Fein's is concentrated in certain areas, giving them more seats per vote.

Pride Fighter · 02-09-2009 9:48pm

ateam wrote: »

With these figures I would guess:

FF 60 -18
FG 62 +11
Lab 33 +12
Green 1 - 5
SF 4 unchanged
Ind 6

FG/Labour coalition, with a clear majority.

FF will lose Dublin seats, but retain most of their rural seats because of transfers.

Do you really think with FF getting one sixth of the vote they will win 40% of the seats? That is some strange arithmetic there.

Dr. Baltar · 02-09-2009 9:48pm

Perhaps for the first time we might see a Left-Wing Alliance of Labour/SP/PBP and Ind/SF?

Would be very interesting for Irish politics!

ateam · 02-09-2009 9:51pm

Pride Fighter wrote: »

Do you really think with FF getting one sixth of the vote they will win 40% of the seats? That is some strange arithmetic there.

We have the PR system, it's not first past the post like in the UK, so sometimes the percentages are misleading. Not know that?

In rural constituencies, Labour and other left wing parties haven't got a chance, FF will still come back with at least 60 seats. A drop of 18 seats would be huge for FF.

Pride Fighter · 02-09-2009 10:02pm

ateam wrote: »

We have the PR system, it's not first past the post like in the UK, so sometimes the percentages are misleading. Not know that?

In rural constituencies, Labour and other left wing parties haven't got a chance, FF will still come back with at least 60 seats. A drop of 18 seats would be huge for FF.

I know all about PR-STV, there is no way someone can vote manage one sixth of the vote and get nearly half the seats. FF wont break 50 seats and if they do it wont be by much.

irish_bob · 02-09-2009 10:10pm

a poor result for fine gael and proof if anymore was needed that kenny should step down

ateam · 02-09-2009 10:12pm

Pride Fighter wrote: »

I know all about PR-STV, there is no way someone can vote manage one sixth of the vote and get nearly half the seats. FF wont break 50 seats and if they do it wont be by much.

Just do a random sweep of the rural constituencies (eg Clare, Laois-Offaly, Tipperary, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Cork areas). FF won't lose their seats there.

They will lose seats in urban areas and where they have three seats in a 5 seat constituency. I can't see any senior or junior minister losing their seat for example.

Pride Fighter · 02-09-2009 10:22pm

They will lose in Laois-Offaly and several seats in the Cork area. FF will run 3 candidates when they should run 2 and 2 when they should run 1. FF will mess up and lose a bucket of seats and give others the opportunity to sneak in.

Dr. Baltar · 02-09-2009 10:32pm

ateam wrote: »

Just do a random sweep of the rural constituencies (eg Clare, Laois-Offaly, Tipperary, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Cork areas). FF won't lose their seats there.

They will lose seats in urban areas and where they have three seats in a 5 seat constituency. I can't see any senior or junior minister losing their seat for example.

I can guarantee Minister Cullen losing a seat in the Waterford Constituency.
We've become very pro Left-Wing in the last year.

Stephen · 02-09-2009 10:54pm

Best news I've heard in ages.

jmcc · 02-09-2009 10:59pm

Pride Fighter wrote: »

FF 17%
FG 34%
Labour 24%
SF 10%

Very, very serious for FF in general and Cowen in particular. With the way that PR voting works, the damage that this will do to FF is far more profound than a simple shift in the twenty percent region. A lot of FF TDs rely heavily on transfers for election. A GE with this kind of breakdown of voter intentions could see FF losing a high percentage of its seats. The short-term outlook for FF, if it takes these figures to heart could see the beginning of a move against Cowen as backbenchers in Tweedle [1] seats get very nervous. But that's purely speculation.

Regards...jmcc
[1] Tweedledee and Tweedledum: One high profile FF candidate brings another somewhat less exceptional FF candidate in on transfers. Eg: Bertie Ahern and Cyprian Brady.

is_that_so · 02-09-2009 10:59pm

irish_bob wrote: »

a poor result for fine gael and proof if anymore was needed that kenny should step down

Hardly a poor result if they become the government, which on these numbers they most certainly will. 1 more than the combined opposition is a good result. Giving FF an absolute beating is not the name of the game even though there would be some satisfaction in it. Of the numbers here I think FF in the high thirties-low forties is not unrealistic. FF will lose a lot of seats in the cities and especially in Dublin. The Greens may keep one, probably in the shape of Eamonn Ryan. All of the rest would probably be gone.

As for the PBP and the SP, of the two the SP stand a better chance - in Claire Daly who has been close in the past. Council seats do not always translate in to a Dail seat, as SF have found. I'd also expect an increase in Independents.
A grand left alliance is just not a runner at all. Labour/FG with well over 50% will form the government. Anything else is pie in the sky and would lead to a new government being formed almost immediately.

jank · 02-09-2009 11:04pm

Christ, those number are terrrible for FF, the biggest winners here are Labour.
Id say those FF backbenchers are getting itchy feet. They are looking to lose at least 30 (maybe even 40!)seats here. That is a lot of TD's left on the heap!

jmcc · 02-09-2009 11:11pm

The core FF vote was supposed to have been around the 24-25% mark. This drop to 17% may be quite terrifying for FF and it could signal a lot of the soft FF vote drifting. If FF was a well run party, I wouldn't expect Cowen to see out the month but this is FF that we are talking about so it might just reinforce a siege mentality.

Regards...jmcc

is_that_so · 02-09-2009 11:17pm

jank wrote: »

Christ, those number are terrrible for FF, the biggest winners here are Labour.
Id say those FF backbenchers are getting itchy feet. They are looking to lose at least 30 (maybe even 40!)seats here. That is a lot of TD's left on the heap!

They might but they might also get that rush of patriotism to do the right thing and go down with the sinking ship and disappoint those heading for Paddy Power to bet on an election date. Paradoxically it may even steel the Greens against all the outside criticism and pressure. Falling on their sword over NAMA is unlikely to help them but pulling out over a FF refusal to change the programme for government would, at the very least, satisfy the party members.

Lockstep · 02-09-2009 11:53pm

Sir Baralot wrote: »

Perhaps for the first time we might see a Left-Wing Alliance of Labour/SP/PBP and Ind/SF?

Would be very interesting for Irish politics!

I can't see Labour and the SP ever going in together.

Too much bad blood over the Militant Tendecny story and SP would lose it's hardcore support for going in with "capitalist" Labour.

TNS/MRBI poll, FF at 17%

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