TNS/MRBI poll, FF at 17%

jank

Maybe, anyway whatever happens I think we can all agree that the FF party as we know is gone forever. There is simply no easy way out of this for FF.

Edit: The party wont be gone but will be a very differnt one to the one we know now.


I dont think Nama will get passed nor will the next budget but even if they do manage some how to remain in government come 2010 then the poll numbers will be even worse for them considering the nasty measures the budget will require. The choice is death by a thousand cuts or death by hanging. One will happen but which one?

Dob74

ateam wrote: »

Just do a random sweep of the rural constituencies (eg Clare, Laois-Offaly, Tipperary, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Cork areas). FF won't lose their seats there.

They will lose seats in urban areas and where they have three seats in a 5 seat constituency. I can't see any senior or junior minister losing their seat for example.

FF will lose 3 or 4 seats in Cork. I also would think a minister and a few juniors will lose out.

jmcc

Dob74 wrote: »

FF will lose 3 or 4 seats in Cork. I also would think a minister and a few juniors will lose out.

FF is probably facing an FG 2002 scale demolition. Quite a few ministers may well lose their seats.

Regards...jmcc

Sand

Maybe, anyway whatever happens I think we can all agree that the FF party as we know is gone forever.

I might be being cynical - seeing Fianna Fail destroyed would be good for Irish politics - but I doubt it. Theres a certain element (and we are seeing a lot of them post in support of NAMA recently) in the Irish vote that would vote for a chimpanzee dressed up in a suit with a Fianna Fail badge on it. Because of the chimps great work in the local community.

These numbers are so decisive for Fianna Fail that they can no longer claim to have a mandate. You expect to see a polls diverge from reality, but this result simply reinforces that Fianna Fail are about as popular as cancer.

Bannana

Sand wrote: »

I might be being cynical - seeing Fianna Fail destroyed would be good for Irish politics - but I doubt it. Theres a certain element (and we are seeing a lot of them post in support of NAMA recently) in the Irish vote that would vote for a chimpanzee dressed up in a suit with a Fianna Fail badge on it. Because of the chimps great work in the local community.

These numbers are so decisive for Fianna Fail that they can no longer claim to have a mandate. You expect to see a polls diverge from reality, but this result simply reinforces that Fianna Fail are about as popular as cancer.

You have to take into account that a lot of Fianna Fail voters don't actually declare they are FF voters. This does tend to distort the reality of the polls. However, these polls are indeed quite damning for a political party that was at the foundation of all politics in Ireland.

I strongly agree when you say FF don't have a mandate. There is a certain air of inevitably about the faith of this government, and little effort on there behalf is being made to change this.

jmcc

Bannana wrote: »

You have to take into account that a lot of Fianna Fail voters don't actually declare they are FF voters.

This is a bit more than that. It is well below what would be considered the traditional FF core vote (the people who vote FF no matter what).

This does tend to distort the reality of the polls. However, these polls are indeed quite damning for a political party that was at the foundation of all politics in Ireland.

FF was not at the foundation of all politics in Ireland. Though it is quite a disaster for FF.

I strongly agree when you say FF don't have a mandate. There is a certain air of inevitably about the faith of this government, and little effort on there behalf is being made to change this.

The next few weeks could be very interesting.

Regards...jmcc

Bannana

jmcc wrote: »

FF was not at the foundation of all politics in Ireland. Though it is quite a disaster for FF.

Apologies, didn't express what i truly meant. I meant a party which has been so prominent in Irish History over the last 80 years or so.

jmcc

Bannana wrote: »

Apologies, didn't express what i truly meant. I meant a party which has been so prominent in Irish History over the last 80 years or so.

No problem. It is an interesting point though as FF is so well engrained in the fabric of Irish society. If these voting patterns are carried into a general election then this would be almost a once in a century kind of political realignment for politics in Ireland.

Regards...jmcc

marco_polo

ateam wrote: »

We have the PR system, it's not first past the post like in the UK, so sometimes the percentages are misleading. Not know that?

In rural constituencies, Labour and other left wing parties haven't got a chance, FF will still come back with at least 60 seats. A drop of 18 seats would be huge for FF.

Pride Fighter wrote: »

I know all about PR-STV, there is no way someone can vote manage one sixth of the vote and get nearly half the seats. FF wont break 50 seats and if they do it wont be by much.

WHile I find you make very good points previously Pride Fighter I would be inclined to agree with ateam for the most part, certainly a little over 50 at worst. In many constituencies there are simply not enough credible alternative party candidates. Do not underestimate the power of a familiar face and the party machine in rural elections.

I am from Clare originally and even if the national percentages said 10% FF they would still probably manage come back with 2 seats. With the exception of M. Banjee in 1992, and the Independent candidate James Breen in 2002. It has always been either 3 FF and 1 FG or 2 FF and 2FG. This is not likely to change too much as FG could probably only field two credible candiates at most, and neither the Labour party nor the Greens exist to any great extent. On top of that it is also probably the only Munster county were Sinn Fein hardly register a presence at all.

Persuming the rest of the rural counties are not too dissimilar, then I think it would be still reasonably high seat count for FF I am afraid. Of course they would be absolutely decimitated in Urban areas all around the country.

Not particularly proud of the all this or anything, just saying it like it is. If this turns into a real opportunity to get some new faces on the scene then great, I am just not sure it will happen.

nesf

ateam wrote: »

Just do a random sweep of the rural constituencies (eg Clare, Laois-Offaly, Tipperary, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Cork areas). FF won't lose their seats there.

I'd expect them to lose one in Cork North West, and one in Cork North Central.

Cork North West was traditionally FG for years until the Celtic Tiger and FF support in the city is being hit very hard from what I can see.

nesf

Pride Fighter wrote: »

This is huge news. I'll take a stab at seat numbers if an election were to happen, using these figures.

FF- 35 seats
FG- 65 seats
Labour- 42 seats
Greens- 0
SF- 7 seats
Independents + PBP + SP- 16

You're hugely underestimating likely FF seats there. Like it or not, the only parties with serious presences in rural areas are FG and FF, Labour support might rise but they don't yet have the party machines in these places to get these seats. Labour will see gains but they won't be beating FF by 7 seats any time soon. We'll see plenty of 2 FF, 1 FG constituencies going 1 FF, 2 FG but FF are almost certain to hold onto at least one seat in all these constituencies, and in some places will still hold 2 in three seaters.

jank

In Cork South Central Michael Martin would get in but his running mate might struggle. Remember in 2002 they returned 3 FF TD's.

nesf

jank wrote: »

In Cork South Central Michael Martin would get in but his running mate might struggle. Remember in 2002 they returned 3 FF TD's.

They only barely managed that though and came very close to only returning 2 from what I heard. They screwed up with the splitting of First Preferences iirc.

GSF

ateam wrote: »

Just do a random sweep of the rural constituencies (eg Clare, Laois-Offaly, Tipperary, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Cork areas). FF won't lose their seats there.

Their Sligo TDs have already gone independent.

mike65

All very interesting, but might the poll reflect that admitting a preference for FF is like saying you'd like to sleep with your sister?

Or would it wrong to draw that parrallel?

Pygmalion

mike65 wrote: »

All very interesting, but might the poll reflect that admitting a preference for FF is like saying you'd like to sleep with your sister?

Or would it wrong to draw that parrallel?

I assume it's an anonymous poll, unless you personally know the guy asking you (which wouldn't happen if it was in any way professional) no-one will know what you answered (Unless 100% say yes, in which case they'll know anyone asked voted FF)

Tenderloins1

17% is very dangerous territory for FF, especially in Dublin where they are on 11%.
In 2002 Fine Gael got 22.5% of the votes and just 31 seats.

It also shows them polling lower nationally than the local elections.

There were 43 constituencies, 12 of them in Dublin.
At the last election they won 19 of the 47 seats available in Dublin.
The Local elections in Dublin indicated a number of things. Firstly that the first preferences would be down. Secondly that transfers were down. So it ended up where FF had to have at least .9 of a quota (the exception
being DunLaoghaire where they had .73 of a quota) to have a candidate elected.
If this figure of 11% was replicated throughout Dublin, they would be down to possibly just 2 seats. More likely would be 5 or 6 seats

Of the 31 outside Dublin theres maybe 1 or 2 (Kerry North, Kildare North) where there are possibilities of having no seat. So thats maybe 30 seats.
So looking then at the other constituencies again. There may be 5 or 6 where they will win 2 seats.

So in total 17% for FF would be around 40 seats.

Sand

Sand wrote: »

Theres a certain element (and we are seeing a lot of them post in support of NAMA recently) in the Irish vote that would vote for a chimpanzee dressed up in a suit with a Fianna Fail badge on it. Because of the chimps great work in the local community.

Yes, because the people who don't vote FF are so much more intelligent? Nonsense. There's a huge number that would vote for a chimp dressed in a suit with a 'Not FF' badge on it, because of their work in the local community. I can think of a few thousand in my own county who vote for a convicted terrorist and gun runner for those two very reasons...

RealityCheck

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes, because the people who don't vote FF are so much more intelligent? Nonsense. There's a huge number that would vote for a chimp dressed in a suit with a 'Not FF' badge on it, because they wrecked the country. I can think of a few thousand in my own county who vote for a convicted terrorist and gun runner for those two very reasons...

Fixed that for you .

Its funny how that crowd used to vote FF, they wer'nt so thick then, eh...

irish_bob

is_that_so wrote: »

Hardly a poor result if they become the government, which on these numbers they most certainly will. 1 more than the combined opposition is a good result. Giving FF an absolute beating is not the name of the game even though there would be some satisfaction in it. Of the numbers here I think FF in the high thirties-low forties is not unrealistic. FF will lose a lot of seats in the cities and especially in Dublin. The Greens may keep one, probably in the shape of Eamonn Ryan. All of the rest would probably be gone.

As for the PBP and the SP, of the two the SP stand a better chance - in Claire Daly who has been close in the past. Council seats do not always translate in to a Dail seat, as SF have found. I'd also expect an increase in Independents.
A grand left alliance is just not a runner at all. Labour/FG with well over 50% will form the government. Anything else is pie in the sky and would lead to a new government being formed almost immediately.

unless fine gael can form a goverment without labour , they wont be able to achieve a damm thing for the country , on theese figures they need labour , kenny is what holds a certain number of swing voters from voting FG

Riskymove

irish_bob wrote: »

unless fine gael can form a goverment without labour , they wont be able to achieve a damm thing for the country , on theese figures they need labour , kenny is what holds a certain number of swing voters from voting FG

I agree, however I think LAB/FG would inevitably happen

with FF decimated I cannot see Gilmore revisiting the mistakes of the Spring tide in the early 90s, a FF/FG alliance is almost impossible so there really is not any other real choice

while there are those who would support FG but not Labour and vice versa, they have a relatively good coalition history

Cork Boy

Well what i find most encouraging is that the only section in society where FF get 20% or over of the vote is amongst the 65 years+ category.

Please excuse my crassness here but as these voters die off, we could see and end to massive core supports for FF and all the main parties (incl FG). In essence, we may see and end to silly civil war politics within a generation.

While the decimation of FF in the polls is fantastic in the short term (and it really is fantastic), if a generation down the road a new breed of Fiann Fail politicians come through who are worth voting for, I will vote for them if they are the best option. Same goes for FG and Labour and whoever may be out there.

In summary - we may get sensible voting within our lifetime!!!

eoinbn

jmcc wrote: »

The core FF vote was supposed to have been around the 24-25% mark. This drop to 17% may be quite terrifying for FF and it could signal a lot of the soft FF vote drifting. If FF was a well run party, I wouldn't expect Cowen to see out the month but this is FF that we are talking about so it might just reinforce a siege mentality.

Regards...jmcc

FF is a well run party. Unfortunately that is where it ends. Nobody in FF will want to replace Cowen until after the next election- why would they?

Our man in Havana

FF will not want an election now. They will hold on by any means possible. If that means selling the silver and pawning the furniture down in Mount Street, they will do it.

FF are finished. And about time too.

Stories of FF being finished are complete and utter nonsense. No poll can change the fact that they are currently the largest party in the country.

It's as sensible as saying the Labour party in the UK are history, just like the Conservatives were wiped out by the opinion polls when...oh sorry, no they weren't, in fact they'll form the next Government there.

This is the party that has pretty much breezed through election after election. They were due a serious fall. They are getting a kicking now, and they well deserve it.

But they are only one good purge and an upswing in the economy away from challenging yet again.

Riskymove

Deleted User wrote: »

It's as sensible as saying the Labour party in the UK are history, just like the Conservatives were wiped out by the opinion polls when.

or just like FG 2 elections ago

is_that_so

irish_bob wrote: »

unless fine gael can form a goverment without labour , they wont be able to achieve a damm thing for the country , on theese figures they need labour , kenny is what holds a certain number of swing voters from voting FG

They will need Labour anyway and both parties have been here before and are pragmatic enough to be able to hammer out a deal. The rainbow of 94-97 did a very good job and deserve part of the credit for the progress from 97 that FF took much of the credit for.

As for your post I suggest you look back at previous elections , even to the late sixties. FF ceased to be a real single party of government in that "landslide victory" of 77 which had them on 84 seats. Since then coalition or agreed support is the way things have gone and will probably continue to go.

The last single party Govt. was in the 80s and a minority one at that. Even FF would be hard pushed to do so these days and have only been above 80 on a couple of occasions and have needed extra support.

I can understand someone not voting for their own TD who has done a bad job but I really don't understand this "I hate Kenny so I am not voting for FG" nonsense. People who have the vote are deemed adult enough to be able to make an informed decision and not indulge in juvenile sulks because our political classes are not perceived to have the same level of cool as politicians in other parts of the world.

Riskymove wrote: »

I agree, however I think LAB/FG would inevitably happen

with FF decimated I cannot see Gilmore revisiting the mistakes of the Spring tide in the early 90s, a FF/FG alliance is almost impossible so there really is not any other real choice

while there are those who would support FG but not Labour and vice versa, they have a relatively good coalition history

Labour will do well to get into the high 20s and may sneak to 30 but probably no higher. As others have posted, they are strong in certain areas.

Cork Boy wrote: »

Well what i find most encouraging is that the only section in society where FF get 20% or over of the vote is amongst the 65 years+ category.

Please excuse my crassness here but as these voters die off, we could see and end to massive core supports for FF and all the main parties (incl FG). In essence, we may see and end to silly civil war politics within a generation.

86% of them vote apparently and with numbers growing they are likely to have a more marked influence on results in future.

RiverWilde

Sand wrote: »

Fianna Fail are about as popular as cancer.

Ah now at least with modern medical advances as horrible as cancer is ... in alot of cases there is a cure for cancer.

I don't think there is a cure for FF

Riv

Our man in Havana

Prevention is better than cure. If only someone had foreseen this back in 1920.

irish_bob

Riskymove wrote: »

I agree, however I think LAB/FG would inevitably happen

with FF decimated I cannot see Gilmore revisiting the mistakes of the Spring tide in the early 90s, a FF/FG alliance is almost impossible so there really is not any other real choice

while there are those who would support FG but not Labour and vice versa, they have a relatively good coalition history

nice to see us debating instead of knocking lumps out of each other risky