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Beyond Lisbon: Where are we going with the EU?

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    #32
    nesf
    Registered Users Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    Alan Rouge wrote: »
    There's no evidence (that I have seen) to suggest that if the Lisbon Treaty is passed , then this will speed up (Ireland's) recovery . Equally if the Lisbon Treaty is rejected it will not slow down economic recovery. If you (or anyone else) have proof to the contrary I'd like to see it as anything else is just conjecture.

    Yes but you're taking one particular interpretation on this and confusing that with all possible interpretations. It's perfectly legitimate to propose that EU membership is good for our economy (free access to wealth EU markets and so on) and that this treaty improves the EU, therefore it is in Ireland's economic interest to vote Yes. What you're doing (intentionally or unintentionally) is creating a straw man here and not actually addressing the issues.

    A better question to answer is, does a No vote definitely not negatively affect Ireland's economy? Does it?
    Alan Rouge wrote: »
    Ireland cannot be ejected from the European Union legally. This is an irrefutable fact and anyone trying to suggest otherwise is a liar. (there is however some kind of mechanism to suspend a member state but that doesn't equate to expelling and certainly doesn't apply to a member state not ratifying a treaty).

    Eh, I don't for a second believe that Ireland will be ejected from the EU if a second No vote is passed, but do you honestly believe that it would be impossible for the EU to kick someone out if every other member State was for it?

    Alan Rouge wrote: »
    If the Lisbon Treaty is rejected by Ireland and not ratified by 2010 then the EU will continue on its course as per previous treaties.

    It won't unless you live in some fanciful imaginary world where different treaties aren't written. The EU will evolve and change, if not through Lisbon then through the next treaty, a No vote does not secure the status quo.


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    #33
    Martin 2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 268 ✭✭Martin 2


    Alan Rouge wrote: »
    There's no evidence (that I have seen) to suggest that if the Lisbon Treaty is passed , then this will speed up (Ireland's) recovery . Equally if the Lisbon Treaty is rejected it will not slow down economic recovery. If you (or anyone else) have proof to the contrary I'd like to see it as anything else is just conjecture.

    If you’re looking for proof that certain actions will have a definite outcome on the economy then you’re unlikely to find it, I think one needs to take a more probabilistic approach, so with that in mind I would say that a Yes is more likely to help the economy and a No more likely to damage it and I base this on the following:

    -The multinational and business sectors support a Yes
    -A no will likely reduce our sovereign credit rating and increase the cost of state borrowing
    -After a yes, the Energy & Environmental provisions of the treaty can be enacted which should result in reduced energy costs and the support of green technology development (long term benefit).

    I was going to add that a yes would also bring stability, confidence and restore our political goodwill within the EU institutions however although I believe this is true it is much fuzzier and more difficult to defend.


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