profitius' gambling blog

profitius · 24-09-2009 2:25pm

Connacht Vs Ulster (1.79)** Confident Ulster will see off Connacht in this one. They won't take Connacht lightly.

profitius · 25-09-2009 6:24pm

Glasgow Vs Ospreys (2.02)** Glasgow rearly loose at home and the Ospreys are going through a bad patch. It remains to be seen how the Ospreys react but home advantage to swing it for Glasgow.

profitius · 26-09-2009 1:01am

London Irish Vs Wasps (1.68)** Two form teams but I'll go for the home team because they're scoring alot of points and were better then Wasps last season.

Blackburn Vs Aston Villa (LAY 3.30)** I think Villa are much better and on form and I don't think they'll lose. Blackburn are tough enough but if Villa turn up and perform they'll get a result.

profitius · 27-09-2009 2:03pm

Pi**ed off after Villa's defeat yesterday. Goal up, man up, conceding that scrappy first goal and then the referee giving Blackburn that penalty. A disgrace. To make things worse it was in the last minute... oh well. :rolleyes: Added to that Glasgow being 10pts up on the Ospreys and looking good.. very frustrating.

Sunderland Vs Wolves (1.81)** Sunderland have improved this year under Bruce and hes brought in some quality players. I'm backing them simply on the basis that promoted teams struggle to get results away from home. Therefore Sunderland win.

scruff321 · 27-09-2009 11:29pm

Mad game Profitius i backed Sunderland too, happy days.:)

profitius · 29-09-2009 12:41pm

Debrecen Vs Lyon (1.5)** I'd be surprised if Lyon didn't win this. They're much the better team and they're on form.

Unirea Urziceni Vs Stuttgart (EVS)* Stuttgart are on form after a shaky start to the season. I don't know much about the Romanian side but they can't be great. So its worth a small bet on Stuttgart I think.

profitius · 29-09-2009 12:42pm

scruff321 wrote: »

Mad game Profitius i backed Sunderland too, happy days.:)

They won well in the end although got a penalty that shouldn't have been. Its nice not having to sweat near the end of a match! lol

profitius · 30-09-2009 12:20am

Stuttgart were very sloppy with the goal they conceded. German soccer must not be that good at the moment. I'll keep that in mind.

Apoel Nicosia Vs Chelsea (1.36)*** I think this is worth a big bet. The Cypriot team have a few injury concerns and really its just a matter of Chelsea being mentally prepared. Thats basically what you're betting on here. With John Terry playing I'm sure they'll have the right attitude going into the match and they will want to bounce back from the defeat at Wigan.

scruff321 · 01-10-2009 10:11am

Profitius keep the posts coming mate, i like seeing what your doin first before i place bets

profitius · 01-10-2009 6:03pm

scruff321 wrote: »

Profitius keep the posts coming mate, i like seeing what your doin first before i place bets

I'll do my best.

Bate Borisov Vs Everton (LAY 1.69)** Bate Borisov are on form and drew 2-2 at home to Juve in last years champions league. Everton might not want to be there and are resting players. I don't see the value in backing Everton so its worth taking the chance to lay them at that short price IMO.

profitius · 02-10-2009 3:35pm

Sale Vs London Irish (1.59)** Sale are at home but they havn't had a good start to the season and London Irish have won 3 in a row. Their points difference is +87 and sales is -16 at this early stage of the season.

profitius · 03-10-2009 1:16am

Burnley Vs Birmingham (LAY 2.3)* Burnley have a few injuries. They've won 3 from 3 games at home but I think with the injuries and with the season underway they'll find things tougher.

Leinster Vs Munster (LAY 1.85)** Munster will be the hungrier side for a win. They've a more dangerous backline and I think if they play it smart they'll win. It could come down to kicks too and be a tight game which is why I layed Leinster instead of backing Munster.

profitius · 03-10-2009 1:12pm

Hull Vs Wigan (LAY 3.2)* Hull are a poor team and struggle in the premiership. I think Wigans win over Chelsea will give them a boost and they can beat Hull.

acalmenvoy · 03-10-2009 1:14pm

Could someone explain 'Lay' to me...

Gerry81 · 03-10-2009 1:19pm

acalmenvoy wrote: »

Could someone explain 'Lay' to me...

you're betting against a team winning.

basically if you lay a team on betfair you are the bookie, so you lay a team for 5euro at say 4.0, if the team loses you win 5euro(you have accepted somebody elses 5euro win bet and thus you being the bookie if the team loses you keep the stake) but if the team wins you must pay out on the bet 20euro

profitius · 03-10-2009 1:22pm

Theres also the asian handicap method of gambling which gives you more options like betting without the draw or losing half your money if its a draw.

acalmenvoy · 03-10-2009 1:33pm

Gerry81 wrote: »

you're betting against a team winning.

basically if you lay a team on betfair you are the bookie, so you lay a team for 5euro at say 4.0, if the team loses you win 5euro(you have accepted somebody elses 5euro win bet and thus you being the bookie if the team loses you keep the stake) but if the team wins you must pay out on the bet 20euro

So your stakeing 20 to win 5 ?

Gerry81 · 03-10-2009 1:40pm

you don't actually stake anything, as you are the bookie you are accepting a 5euro bet. but just like a bookie if the team wins you must pay out at the odds you accepted the bet at so you are risking 20

profitius · 03-10-2009 3:02pm

acalmenvoy wrote: »

So your stakeing 20 to win 5 ?

If you put €10 on a team at 3/1 you'll win €30 if the team wins or lose the €10.

If you lay a team for €10 at 3/1 you'll win €10 if the team does not win (if they lose or draw) or you'll lose €30 if they do win. Thats how bookmakers do things.

So basically you have the benefit of the draw but the prices are bigger

profitius · 09-10-2009 4:35pm

I learnt alot of lesson after last week. A real loss of disapline although I'm not too upset over the Munster defeat because there was reasons why I fancied them. The Burnley and Hull Lays were just done because I wanted to have a bet. But thats partly why I'm keeping a betting blog.

I'm also going to change the system a bit for more flexability.

Ulster Vs Bath (1.94)** Ulster are playing good stuff and confidence is high. If they can take their oppertunities then they've a great chance to win.

profitius · 10-10-2009 2:16pm

Northampton Vs Munster (1.80)** Munster will be motivated and better prepared then last week. Their lineout should be better and I think they'll go back to basics. Northampton don't lose many at home but this is Munster in the HEC.

profitius · 15-10-2009 1:07am

I read an article about the amazing lack of draws this season. Its usually about 28% but so far this season it said only 7% of games ended in draws. In gambling terms it means stay away from laying teams. I've lost most of my lays this season and in seasons past I was winning by laying teams. Hopefully the 'lack of draws' run will continue this weekend.

Fulham Vs Hull (1.7)** Fulham at home will be targeting a win and Hull away are not very good. Fulham are playing well at home.

Blackburn Vs Burnley (1.8)** Burnley have lost all their away games so Blackburn will target a win here. They should be too strong at home.

Wigan Vs Man City (1.73)** Man City are a class above wigan and I think they'll be looking for another win.

Everton Vs Wolves (1.5)** Another game where you'd have to fancy the home team. Everton are playing well now after a shaky start.

profitius · 18-10-2009 1:34pm

Well done Everton. :rolleyes:

Bath Vs Stade Francis (5/6)** Stade are targetting the HEC this season and I think Bath will want to win but are more concerned with the GP. I'm backing Stade because of the class difference and their good run of form.

L'prof · 18-10-2009 4:29pm

Sale VS Leicester Tigers (1.60) €100
Connacht Vs Ospreys (1.35) €100
Barcelona to win la liga (10/11) €400

-€465

Sunderland Vs Hull (EVS) €100
Blackburn Vs Wolves (1.9) €100
Tottenham Vs Man Utd (LAY 2.40) €100
Portsmouth Vs Bolton (LAY 2.46) €100

€50

Cyprus Vs Rep Ireland (LAY 4.1) €100
England Vs Croatia (1.62) €100

€162

Celtic to win SPL (1.76) €100
Man City to finish highest without the top 4 (2.08) €400

-€500

Birmingham Vs Aston Villa (2.26) €100
St Liege Vs Arsenal (1.58) €100

€184

Cork Vs Kerry (EVS) €100

-€100

Connacht Vs Ulster (1.79) €100

€79

Glasgow Vs Ospreys (2.02) €100

-€100

London Irish Vs Wasps (1.68) €100
Blackburn Vs Aston Villa (LAY 3.30) €100

-€262

Sunderland Vs Wolves (1.81) €100

€81

Debrecen Vs Lyon (1.5) €100
Unirea Urziceni Vs Stuttgart (EVS) €50

€0

Apoel Nicosia Vs Chelsea (1.36) €400

€144

Bate Borisov Vs Everton (LAY 1.69) €100

-€169

Sale Vs London Irish (1.59) €100

€59

Burnley Vs Birmingham (LAY 2.3) €50
Leinster Vs Munster (LAY 1.85) €100

-€300

Hull Vs Wigan (LAY 3.2) €50

-€160

Ulster Vs Bath (1.94) €100

€94

Northampton Vs Munster (1.80) €100

-€100

Fulham Vs Hull (1.7) €100
Blackburn Vs Burnley (1.8) €100
Wigan Vs Man City (1.73) €100
Everton Vs Wolves (1.5) €100

-€220

Bath Vs Stade Francis (5/6) €100

-€100 €83

I make it -€1623 -€1440 with €1200 €1000 still in play. Not bad if the bets in play come through, but you seem to be depending on your long term bets to make money.

profitius · 24-10-2009 2:56am

I'll calculate the bets soon. I will do it more often to show how I'm doing overall. Jasonorr its easier for clarity just to calculate the bets as they happen instead of deducting the money when you do a bet.

Tomorrows games don't look too good for backing teams.

Wolves Vs Aston Villa (1.9 Asian Handicap [draw I lose half])** Villa have almost a full squad and will be encouraged by their victory over Chelsea.

profitius · 24-10-2009 12:31pm

Roundup

Total (so far) 330

Won - Connacht Vs Ulster (1.79)**
Lost - Glasgow Vs Ospreys (2.02)**
Won - London Irish Vs Wasps (1.68)**
Lost - Blackburn Vs Aston Villa (LAY 3.30)**
Won - Sunderland Vs Wolves (1.81)**
Won - Debrecen Vs Lyon (1.5)**
Lost - Unirea Urziceni Vs Stuttgart (EVS)*
Won - Apoel Nicosia Vs Chelsea (1.36)***

total +42

Lost - Bate Borisov Vs Everton (LAY 1.69)**
Won - Sale Vs London Irish (1.59)**
Lost - Burnley Vs Birmingham (LAY 2.3)*
Lost - Leinster Vs Munster (LAY 1.85)**
Lost - Hull Vs Wigan (LAY 3.2)*
Won - Ulster Vs Bath (1.94)**
Lost - Northampton Vs Munster (1.80)**

total -276

Won - Fulham Vs Hull (1.7)**
Won - Blackburn Vs Burnley (1.8)**
Lost - Wigan Vs Man City (1.73)**
Lost - Everton Vs Wolves (1.5)**
Won - Bath Vs Stade Francis (5/6)**

total +33

Overall total 330 +42 -276 +33 = 129

_______
129
_______

Unsettled

Celtic to win SPL (1.76)**
Man City to finish highest without the top 4 (2.08)***
Barcelona to win la liga.(10/11)***
Wolves Vs Aston Villa (1.9 [draw lose half])**

Overall winning 129 which isn't much but not losing either. Had 1 terrible period as seen above. Everton were without Arteta and Pienaar last week when drawing with Wolves which I didn't take into account. I'll have a closer look at injuries and suspensions in future so thats a lesson learned. Also last week Man City were missing alot of players.

In alot of the bets I lost it seems the teams have taken the lead and lost a lead. Another thing has been the draws this year. Its less then half of all previous years' number so that hasn't helped. Last week 2 of the teams I backed ended up drawing which is a bit annoying.

profitius · 25-10-2009 12:27am

Man City Vs Fulham (1.52)*** Fulham are a good team but they've had a busy week and Man City are a class above them so I strongly fancy city to win this. Wright-Phillips is playing which isn't good because he's a head chicken but with the likes of Gareth Barry and Adebayor and Tevez playing they'll create chances and expect to win.

profitius · 25-10-2009 6:44pm

F**king Man City! F**k em!!!!! - thats all I can say about that. Cost me far more then the €400 I have down here.

I don't know if this is normal but below are all the bets I lost and all the teams in group A were leading at some stage of their matches.

Another thing I'm pissed off about is the draws. There was none when I was laying teams and so I decided against laying and now in the last 5 premiership matches I done I had 2 wins and 3 f**king draws. Maybe I should go back to laying teams more...

After this weekend I'm going to start to try a more high risk form of gambling by laying teams who I think won't win. Experiment a bit and obviously bet lower with my own money so I wouldn't advise anybody to do the bets I'm doing.

Group A
Lost - Tottenham Vs Man Utd (LAY 2.40)**
Lost - Cork Vs Kerry (EVS)** -100
Lost - Glasgow Vs Ospreys (2.02)**
Lost - Blackburn Vs Aston Villa (LAY 3.30)**
Lost - Unirea Urziceni Vs Stuttgart (EVS)*
Lost - Bate Borisov Vs Everton (LAY 1.69)**
Lost - Northampton Vs Munster (1.80)**
Lost - Wolves Vs Aston Villa (1.9 [draw lose half])**
Lost - Man City Vs Fulham (1.52)***

Group B
Lost - Sale Vs Leicester Tigers (1.60)**
Lost - Wigan Vs Man City (1.73)**
Lost - Everton Vs Wolves (1.5)**
Lost - Burnley Vs Birmingham (LAY 2.3)*
Lost - Leinster Vs Munster (LAY 1.85)**
Lost - Hull Vs Wigan (LAY 3.2)*

PhatPiggins · 25-10-2009 10:52pm

Why dont you try laying off your bets.

You could have got out of a few of those bets at a fifth of the starting odds.

You might even try betting on fewer markets and aiming to 'green out'.

profitius · 27-10-2009 12:42pm

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Why dont you try laying off your bets.

You could have got out of a few of those bets at a fifth of the starting odds.

You might even try betting on fewer markets and aiming to 'green out'.

Yeah. I'm sure Man City would have been at about 1/20 when they were 2 up. I wasn't there to lay them off but that means less value all the time. But maybe it is best to take whatever money I can out of it.

Having thought about it I might try to start laying more teams again. The last 5 matches there was no losers and theres more draws lately again.

What do you mean by 'green out'?

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