Does this seem off to you?

doomedtofail

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0904/migration.html

ESRI research has found that almost 6% of Ireland's economic growth since 2004 was generated by the inflow of workers from the eastern European states which joined the EU that year.

Keeping that aside, they now make up (in addition to Nigerians, Indians etc. of the non-EU member states) 80,304 of the 440,056 people currently on the Live Register.

That's approx 18% of the Live Register is made up of persons, who if we assume is on the basic 208 Euro per month, are costing the state a minimum of 66 million Euro per month...and that's before the add-ons.

Grudaire

So foreigners are claiming the Doll - is that the entire story?

Bhuel a duine uasal. Perhaps thay have worked here for years, paying tax AND PRSI, and thus are entitled to it?

PaulieD

Cliste wrote: »

So foreigners are claiming the Doll - is that the entire story?

Bhuel a duine uasal. Perhaps thay have worked here for years, paying tax AND PRSI, and thus are entitled to it?

And driving down wages.

Sleipnir

PaulieD wrote: »

And driving down wages.

Exactly, that's just what this country needs.

Grudaire

PaulieD wrote: »

And driving down wages.

The fvckers are making us more compeditive?:mad:

doomedtofail

Cliste wrote: »

So foreigners are claiming the Doll - is that the entire story?

Bhuel a duine uasal. Perhaps thay have worked here for years, paying tax AND PRSI, and thus are entitled to it?

Perhaps they have worked for the required period of time before claiming job seekers. Perhaps they have contributed 6% to the economic growth of this country although look where that left us.

The false pop economics people were spouting back in the day about foreign nationals propping up our economy has turned out to be absolute pish. Now we're left with the dregs of the foreign nationals approaching 20% of the Live Register figure. For some reason me thinks it's not the skilled Nigerian doctors or Philippine nurses who are queuing at the local post office.

In a nutshell - the pros and cons of mass immigration in cold figures could not be starker...another example of mismanagement of the boom by the government

dresden8

Cliste wrote: »

So foreigners are claiming the Doll - is that the entire story?

Bhuel a duine uasal. Perhaps thay have worked here for years, paying tax AND PRSI, and thus are entitled to it?

Low paid workers pay very little tax and quite possibly no PRSI, they do qualify for full benefits though.

Grudaire

dresden8 wrote: »

Low paid workers pay very little tax and quite possibly no PRSI, they do qualify for full benefits though.

What are the requirements actually?

Zambia

doomedtofail wrote: »

That's approx 18% of the Live Register is made up of persons, who if we assume is on the basic 208 Euro per month, are costing the state a minimum of 66 million Euro per month...and that's before the add-ons.

If I was gonna kick the ar5e of the live register I would aim at the other 72% who have turned unemployment into a f&&king career choice. :mad:

jank

The answer to the OP is no, it does not seem off. This is just an excuse for rant against migrants imo.

doomedtofail

jank wrote: »

The answer to the OP is no, it does not seem off. This is just an excuse for rant against migrants imo.

If I were to rant I would rant. Migrant bashing is a refined art at this stage where one can use any number of legitimate, and from what we've read on other posts, sometimes off the wall and downright erroneous claims to support that agenda. This is an invitation for debate on the sustainability of such numbers and, perhaps, to discuss what I perceive as a massive discrepancy at a fiscal level at least between the economic pros and cons of mass immigration to this country.

So keep your PC thug opinions to yourself please if you can't add anything substantial to the discussion.

ChocolateSauce

Statistically, migrants don't make a difference at all. If the x number of migrants were in fact Irish, we'd have the same number of jobs, same amount of money floating around, same number of people unemployed. If they leave, we're just shrinking the number of consumers and thus shrinking the potential for jobs.

IF you want to criticise migrants, economically is a really bad way to do it.

AlekSmart

The false pop economics people were spouting back in the day about foreign nationals propping up our economy has turned out to be absolute pish. Now we're left with the dregs of the foreign nationals approaching 20% of the Live Register figure. For some reason me thinks it's not the skilled Nigerian doctors or Philippine nurses who are queuing at the local post office.

Interesting and possibly pertinent view.

Its also interesting that the Minister for Justice recently lessened some of the restrictions on Non-National work-permit holders remaining on a tad longer in the State when made redundant.

http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/national-news/govt-eases-rules-for-redundant-workpermit-holders-1872607.html

A true cynic might say that this could be seen as maintaining a downward pressure on general wage rates whilst perhaps forgetting that Irish DSFA payments will still be well above what might await the FO on their return to their country of origin.

IF you want to criticise migrants, economically is a really bad way to do it.

If it`s about criticising anybody then I might suggest making a start on the likes of Ministers like Ms Harney who spouted nonsense regarding Ireland having a REQUIREMENT for up to 200,000 migrants to keep our economy on it`s upward track....That was,of course pre Liam Carroll !!!

doomedtofail

ChocolateSauce wrote: »

Statistically, migrants don't make a difference at all. If the x number of migrants were in fact Irish, we'd have the same number of jobs, same amount of money floating around, same number of people unemployed. If they leave, we're just shrinking the number of consumers and thus shrinking the potential for jobs.

IF you want to criticise migrants, economically is a really bad way to do it.

Not too sure if I agree with your analysis of the issue with the same cyclical logic.

Shrinking number of consumers = shrinking potential for jobs
Increasing number of consumers = increasing potential for job

Therefore mass immigration, and thereafter keeping foreign nationals here is a necessity?

Not to be too glib about it but I would have thought sound economic policy, a highly educated workforce, cut in unwarranted government expenditure and an increase in exports & productivity is what's needed on this island - not retaining consumption levels on credit we couldn't afford to maintain.

Ireland only improved its economic prowess in the late 80s not after we stopped exporting people but after a series of policies put in place by successive governments.

deadhead13

Zambia232 wrote: »

If I was gonna kick the ar5e of the live register I would aim at the other 72% who have turned unemployment into a f&&king career choice. :mad:

That is blatant nonsense and 18 + 72 = 90.

jank

doomedtofail wrote: »

So keep your PC thug opinions to yourself please if you can't add anything substantial to the discussion.

As far as i know this is a public forum where opinions are warranted, therefore I am entitled to have my opinion.;)

If I were to rant I would rant. Migrant bashing is a refined art at this stage where one can use any number of legitimate, and from what we've read on other posts, sometimes off the wall and downright erroneous claims to support that agenda. This is an invitation for debate on the sustainability of such numbers and, perhaps, to discuss what I perceive as a massive discrepancy at a fiscal level at least between the economic pros and cons of mass immigration to this country.

Do you have the stats on hand for the ammount of Migrants going home? I dont think we will be seeing a new flux of migrants any time soo. Economy fcuked = Problem solved!

AlekSmart

Do you have the stats on hand for the ammount of Migrants going home? I dont think we will be seeing a new flux of migrants any time soo.

I would not be so sure of the numbers "going home",no siree cos in the minds of certain serious political thinkers the "Immigrants" represent a very useful tool with which to tap away at the natives....

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/redundant-immigrants-given-breathing-space-1872830.html

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/influx-of-immigrants-is-without-precedent-1878124.html

It`s all a matter of perception really........:eek:

doomedtofail

jank wrote: »

Economy fcuked = Problem solved!

I think you've highlighted the problem there in more concise terms than I ever could. It's exactly because the economy is in the state that it is that we can't afford to prop up 80,000 migrant workers while they wait it out for, let's be honest, more low-paid positions to open up. There are only so many Spars left to be built.

On the other hand with a vibrant economy we could afford to listen to the nonsense spouted by Harney and co. about the absolute necessity for this massive influx of poorly educated, untrained cheap labour.

And with the most basic of SW packages coming in at over E200 (combined with a minimum wage of E8.50 where work is available), there's no way these dole recipients are going anywhere...I know I wouldn't...

djpbarry

doomedtofail wrote: »

It's exactly because the economy is in the state that it is that we can't afford to prop up 80,000 migrant workers while they wait it out for, let's be honest, more low-paid positions to open up. There are only so many Spars left to be built.

On the other hand with a vibrant economy we could afford to listen to the nonsense spouted by Harney and co. about the absolute necessity for this massive influx of poorly educated, untrained cheap labour.

Why do you assume that the 80,000-odd foreign nationals on the dole are poorly educated or untrained?

doomedtofail

I don't and my post shouldn't be construed in that way - assuming something as general as that would be just plain silly and I didn't think this needed to be spelt out. I would highlight however that in all likelihood the 80,000 represents the bottom tier of an educated migrant workforce.

Like I said in previous posts, it's unlikely that the doctors, nurses, engineers, teachers etc. are those in receipt of SW payments but the poorly-trained, uneducated, barely legible cheap labour...a redundant workforce we have no need for and won't for many years to come.

deadhead13

jank wrote: »

Do you have the stats on hand for the ammount of Migrants going home? I dont think we will be seeing a new flux of migrants any time soo. Economy fcuked = Problem solved!

The CSO is supposed to be publishing the latest figures any day now, in 2008 around 100,000 migrants left. Joan Burton is claiming that the CSO report will suggest that emigration in 2010, of Irish and non-nationals, will see the biggest fall in Ireland's population since the 50's

djpbarry

doomedtofail wrote: »

I would highlight however that in all likelihood the 80,000 represents the bottom tier of an educated migrant workforce.

Are you applying the same logic to the 440,000-odd Irish people on the dole? Because that seems incredibly simplistic to me.

Fratton Fred

so maybe the OP could give us an answer to this problem? kick all foreigners out, just kick out the ones who are on the dole?

Maybe an explanation as to why someone who moved here five years ago with their family and is now signing on should have to mave all their family back to Poland, Latvia or wherever so they can make Ireland's books balance.

Lu Tze

doomedtofail wrote: »

Like I said in previous posts, it's unlikely that the doctors, nurses, engineers, teachers etc. are those in receipt of SW payments but the poorly-trained, uneducated, barely legible cheap labour...a redundant workforce we have no need for and won't for many years to come.

Can't speak for the other professions you mentioned, but engineering has taken a serious hit. Our office is now 50% smaller, with only 12-13% of the people left working there are non-irish, and this used to be far higher, nearer 50%.

Not that there was any discrimination in redundancies, but immigrants generally had less experience working in this market, or less time with our company.

I would imagine there are quite a number of highly skilled immigrants making up that 80,000 on SW.

doomedtofail

Lu Tze wrote: »

Can't speak for the other professions you mentioned, but engineering has taken a serious hit. Our office is now 50% smaller, with only 12-13% of the people left working there are non-irish, and this used to be far higher, nearer 50%.

Not that there was any discrimination in redundancies, but immigrants generally had less experience working in this market, or less time with our company.

I would imagine there are quite a number of highly skilled immigrants making up that 80,000 on SW.

We're also involved in Engineering and it would appear our situation is quite the opposite - cheaper Indian engineers have been brought in to replace Irish engineers who were let go 8 months ago. A cynic might suggest this was a ploy by management who wanted to reduce their overheads...but I digress...

There's no way of telling what percentage of that 80,000 or indeed the approx 500,000 total are deemed to be 'highly skilled'; my original post set out to highlight the gross discrepancy between the perceived economic benefits (4-6% pending on source of accounted wealth generated in its simplest terms since 2004) mass migration has delivered as opposed to the E66million (at the very least) it costs the State monthly to support persons from economies far larger than ours which can absorb such relatively vast numbers.

doomedtofail

Fratton Fred wrote: »

so maybe the OP could give us an answer to this problem? kick all foreigners out, just kick out the ones who are on the dole?

Maybe an explanation as to why someone who moved here five years ago with their family and is now signing on should have to mave all their family back to Poland, Latvia or wherever so they can make Ireland's books balance.

What relevance does it have where they come from? If they are citizens of an EU member state then they are free to be unemployed anywhere they choose within the EU, prerequisites covered of course. Why on earth should I care if someone has to move back to x? Do you think any Australian gives a toss, nor should they, when the Irish can't find work in Australia as is now the case and have to return home? I care about this country balancing its books.

I would ask you what your thoughts are on a possible solution but having read your last post I'd actually rather you didn't if it were to be of similar sentimental mush as above.

To paraphrase Dr.Barrett from the ESRI - it was good for Ireland when the jobless immigrants returned home.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/influx-of-immigrants-is-without-precedent-1878124.html

Now why do you think someone with far greater access to statistical information on such demographics than I, or it would appear, you would have reason to conclude such a thing?

doomedtofail

djpbarry wrote: »

Are you applying the same logic to the 440,000-odd Irish people on the dole? Because that seems incredibly simplistic to me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor

To summarize the common understanding of the principle, "Of several acceptable explanations for a phenomenon, the simplest is preferable, provided that it does not contradict the observed facts."

We can make it a lot more complicated for you once the relevant qnhs reports are issued, but until then I can only rely on logical estimations - by May 2008 a third of the 25-64 bracket had attained third-level education status.

According to the latest figures made available by the CSO

"Unemployment rates clearly fell as education levels increased with a 2%
unemployment rate for persons with a third level degree or above."

We all know how non-discriminatory the axe has fallen this past year on both native and migrant alike, but I still would be quite confident that statistically the majority of those 80,000 will possess a 'skillset' for which this economy will have very little use for for some time to come.

doomedtofail

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/qnhs_educationalattainment.pdf

Fratton Fred

doomedtofail wrote: »

What relevance does it have where they come from? If they are citizens of an EU member state then they are free to be unemployed anywhere they choose within the EU, prerequisites covered of course. Why on earth should I care if someone has to move back to x? Do you think any Australian gives a toss, nor should they, when the Irish can't find work in Australia as is now the case and have to return home? I care about this country balancing its books.

so you think it is reasonable for someone who moved here in 2002, with a family, to up sticks and leave Ireland, taking their kids out of school, leaving the home they bought (Which is probably in negative equity by now) and saying goodbye to their friends the second they lost their job?

Get real, these are human beings with families we are talking about here.

doomedtofail wrote: »

I would ask you what your thoughts are on a possible solution but having read your last post I'd actually rather you didn't if it were to be of similar sentimental mush as above.

To paraphrase Dr.Barrett from the ESRI - it was good for Ireland when the jobless immigrants returned home.

its not sentimental mush, it is reality. When you leave your parents home you will probably understand better. The solution is simple, ireland manages it's economy properly and provides employment for all.

doomedtofail wrote: »

Now why do you think someone with far greater access to statistical information on such demographics than I, or it would appear, you would have reason to conclude such a thing?

of course it is better when unemployed immigrants leave, it is better when unemployed Irish people leave as well, just like it is better for the HSE when people die in a road accident rather than just get seriously injured. its called "Stating the Bleedin Obvious".

The best thing that could happen to this country at the moment, is for 50% of the civil service to **** off to Australia, but it isn't going to happen.

Ireland needed immigrants so it welcomed them in, you can't just turn around to these people now and say "We've milked you for all you are worth, now **** off from whence you cometh".

doomedtofail

Fratton Fred wrote: »

When you leave your parents home you will probably understand better

I think you've let yourself down Fratton Fred. I really do. I'm sorry you couldn't rise above the level of delivering petty insults. It's probably best you don't read my responses if it brings you to this level of antagonism.

Scofflaw

Can we keep it a little more peaceable in here? FrattonFred, if you don't know that doomedtofail actually lives at home with his/her parents, please don't come out with that kind of thing.

moderately,
Scofflaw