M17/M18 - Gort to Tuam [open to traffic]

gally74

Bonds really dropping now, funding will come forward

I heard they sold some today, albeit a small enough amount. I assume they are testing the waters a bit before going back in full steam.

Anyone any idea what rate they sold at?

BluntGuy

Deleted User wrote: »

I heard they sold some today, albeit a small enough amount. I assume they are testing the waters a bit before going back in full steam.

Anyone any idea what rate they sold at?

They swapped bonds rather than sold new ones, but the rate was 5.15% according to this article.

spacetweek

Map of this scheme (not sure if I posted it already).

The bond issue is good news. We should hopefully see one PPP per year. M17/18 next year, Enniscorthy/New Ross the one after or maybe half the M20.

touts

The bond swap is only like going to the money lender and adding more time at a high rate to the existing debt. The fact remains that there is no money for new projects. If a provincial government attempt to spend billions on a road instead of paying reparations to the Franco-Germanic banks then an economic pro-consul (similar to the one now proposed for Greece) will be sent in from the capital to formally take control from the provincials.

GalwayMagpie

spacetweek wrote: »

Map of this scheme (not sure if I posted it already).

The bond issue is good news. We should hopefully see one PPP per year. M17/18 next year, Enniscorthy/New Ross the one after or maybe half the M20.

That does not really tie in with this map.
It show the motorway being a lot closer to Clarinbridge.

antoobrien

touts wrote: »

The bond swap is only like going to the money lender and adding more time at a high rate to the existing debt. The fact remains that there is no money for new projects. If a provincial government attempt to spend billions on a road instead of paying reparations to the Franco-Germanic banks then an economic pro-consul (similar to the one now proposed for Greece) will be sent in from the capital to formally take control from the provincials.

The French and Germans would rather us spend the money on roads & infrastructure and p*ssing money into services that aren't delivering. Part of the Greek loans (i refuse to call them bailouts because they are not free money) is a specific infrastructure loan.

antoobrien

GalwayMagpie wrote: »

That does not really tie in with this map.
It show the motorway being a lot closer to Clarinbridge.

The map referenced by spacetweek is closest to the maps published on the scheme websites
http://www.galway.ie/RoadProjects/m17/index.htm
http://www.galway.ie/RoadProjects/n18orangort/

L1011

7.03% at the moment.

Time to get the diggers dusted off...

Plowman

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L1011

Plowman wrote: »

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Its likely an actual attempt to get funding would come in below that; and the N11 was funded with bonds at 9%+.

Plowman

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L1011

Plowman wrote: »

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As its a PPP, its a private firm who has to take on the loans, its just that as its effectively sovereign debt by proxy that the bond price weighs heavily on it.

Plowman

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spacetweek

MYOB wrote: »

7.03% at the moment.

Time to get the diggers dusted off...

Hopefully at year's end they'll see it that way.

Jayuu

In fairness to the government I don't think their attitude to capital investment is frustrating. They just have their hands tied. I'd say they'd love to be able to announce a couple of major infrastructure projects because they'd be good news stories but if the money ain't there then it ain't there.

BluntGuy

Jayuu wrote: »

In fairness to the government I don't think their attitude to capital investment is frustrating. They just have their hands tied. I'd say they'd love to be able to announce a couple of major infrastructure projects because they'd be good news stories but if the money ain't there then it ain't there.

Some would argue that the government see capital spending as an easier target than cutting current spending. Some would go further and suggest that some of the €750 million wouldn't have needed to be cut, if greater cuts in public sector numbers and wages and social welfare payments had been made.

Bond yields fell below 7%, as matter of interest. If they continue on this downward trajectory then theoretically, more PPPs are possible, depending on what the government sees as its priorities.

L1011

Traded below 7% for a time today.

black47

MYOB wrote: »

Traded below 7% for a time today.

Hopefully now there will be movement. Does anyone know how this percentage would have compared to the percentage available for other PPP road schemes built when times were good. Just trying to get as feel for the optimum percentage that would enable a private investor to commit

antoobrien

black47 wrote: »

Hopefully now there will be movement. Does anyone know how this percentage would have compared to the percentage available for other PPP road schemes built when times were good. Just trying to get as feel for the optimum percentage that would enable a private investor to commit

Take a look at historical bond rates (available in The Rise and Fall..and Rise...of Irish Bond Rates). Infra is usually funded using 5y or 10y bonds. Money for pps would have been borrowed at no more than about 6% as this is what the rate was when borrowing stopped due to being "unsustainable".

Realistically the 8year bond is the one to watch as this is the current longest term "benchmark" bond available.

The 5 year (and other long term bonds) need to get to below 6.5% before the government can really consider borrowing.

Mods, is the bond discussion relevant to the road project?

BluntGuy

As long as it doesn't veer too far into a general discussion about the effect of bonds on the Irish economy, I think it's relevant.

Victor

What is the current status of Gort-Athenry and Athenry-Tuam?

antoobrien

Victor wrote: »

What is the current status of Gort-Athenry and Athenry-Tuam?

Same as it has been since the infrastructure budget last December. Planned to go ahead next year (as a single project incorporating the Tuam bypass) if and when PPP funding becomes available (it will be partially govt funded like N11/NX).

the keen edge

Just wondering does anyone know if there has been any recent developments with this project.(I live on the N18).
Thanks.

antoobrien

the keen edge wrote: »

Just wondering does anyone know if there has been any recent developments with this project.(I live on the N18).
Thanks.

Unlikely to progress very far before next year, as there's no funding for it this year (unless the PPP consortia pull it out of thin air).

Don't worry if anything is heard about the project, it will get posted here.

glineli

antoobrien wrote: »

Unlikely to progress very far before next year, as there's no funding for it this year (unless the PPP consortia pull it out of thin air).

Don't worry if anything is heard about the project, it will get posted here.

What are the chances of it even starting next year? Did it have to go back out to tendering?

ki

Eammon O Cuiv, spoke on the matter recently (heard that part second hand) and he was very positive about it going ahead

From knowing a few farmers along the route, and there inaction with CPO's etc.
It doesn't need to be re-tendered, the finance is ready to go and all but the the last few parcels of hand have being paid for.

And they don't know the exact reason for the delay.

ki

ki wrote: »

Eammon O Cuiv, spoke on the matter recently (heard that part second hand) and he was very positive about it going ahead

From knowing a few farmers along the route, and there inaction with CPO's etc.
It doesn't need to be re-tendered, the finance is ready to go and all but the the last few parcels of hand have being paid for.

And they don't know the exact reason for the delay.

I'd hope while they are waiting they start doing a CPO for the milltown to ballindine section. This is very short and yet probably the most dangerous section of the whole atlantic corridor. Its a shame not to see it included in this section.

ki

Deleted User wrote: »

I'd hope while they are waiting they start doing a CPO for the milltown to ballindine section. This is very short and yet probably the most dangerous section of the whole atlantic corridor. Its a shame not to see it included in this section.

The scheme will definitely not be extended. That section will be done by itself.

antoobrien

glineli wrote: »

What are the chances of it even starting next year? Did it have to go back out to tendering?

No it does not need to be retendered. On of two things will happen
1) BAM will be allowed to proceed as having won the tender
2) The second placed tender will be offered the chance to take it on in the event that BAM are unable to do anything (which should be clear at this stage)

Interestingly GCC has a €12m budget for works on the M17/18 in their 2012 roads programme.

Deleted User wrote: »

I'd hope while they are waiting they start doing a CPO for the milltown to ballindine section. This is very short and yet probably the most dangerous section of the whole atlantic corridor. Its a shame not to see it included in this section.

There are plans to improve this, see the Tuam-Colloney thread for the announcements made last year.