Boccy's American Football betting thread

kryogen

Why s it such a surprise to alot of people that the Pats lost? i am a pats fan but still avoided that game! i mean we are without our number 1 RB, our number 1 WR cant get open, the defence is missing a couple of guys and looking very weak against the pass and Brady is still finding his groove again! Besides this, the Bronco's offence (with the exception of Kyle Orton, even though he did have a great game) is pretty damn good and since the defence is finding a way of keeping teams scores low then they should be respected. i mean they beat the cowboys last week, so why would anyone think the understrength and still adapting to a new system Pats would roll over them??



where my bet was lost was when the Bills failed to beat the feckin Browns at home, now i mean can you believe that! they score 3 against the Browns? ffs



EDIT: didnt mean to sound like an asshole to anyone who backed the pats....just genuinly surprised anyone thought they were dead certs

jacool

boccy23 wrote: »

Mental note, avoid Cincinncati next week. Avoid Cincinnati next week. Repeat to ensure I don't forget.

hey boccy23 " Avoid Cincinnati next week"
I had a disastrous night betting without the spreads. Buffalo losing 3-6 at least meant that I didn't have to stay up and endure a tortuous night. This week I must read all those "season-so-far" reviews to see if I can draw on any patterns.
Looking forward to the Giants facing the Saints though 5-0 v 4-0 !! these are the lines already, with the Saints -3 !!
Date & Time Favorite Spread Underdog
10/18 1:00 ET At Washington -5.5 Kansas City
10/18 1:00 ET At Cincinnati -6.5 Houston
10/18 1:00 ET At Pittsburgh -13.5 Cleveland
10/18 1:00 ET At Minnesota -3 Baltimore
10/18 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -10 St. Louis
10/18 1:00 ET At New Orleans -3 NY Giants
10/18 1:00 ET Carolina -3.5 At Tampa Bay
10/18 1:00 ET At Green Bay -13 Detroit
10/18 4:05 ET Philadelphia -14 At Oakland
10/18 4:05 ET At Seattle -3 Arizona
10/18 4:15 ET At NY Jets -9.5 Buffalo
10/18 4:15 ET At New England -9.5* Tennessee
10/18 8:20 ET At Atlanta -3.5 Chicago
Monday Night Football Point Spread
10/19 8:35 ET At San Diego -3.5 Denver
Byes: Dallas, Indianapolis, Miami, San Francisco
* Patriots-Tennessee liable to change

boccy23

Must avoid CIN / HOU.

I still like NO at home. Even as a Giants fan. But will probably avoid it. There looks to be easier ones like the Eagles, Minnesota and the Jets.

jester1980

Who do you fancy tonight, i think the Jets are a little over rated and with the Dlphins coming off a good win last week i quietly fancy them, they are also on BYE next week so don't want to go into that with season nearly over at 1-4...

boccy23

jester1980 wrote: »

Who do you fancy tonight, i think the Jets are a little over rated and with the Dlphins coming off a good win last week i quietly fancy them, they are also on BYE next week so don't want to go into that with season nearly over at 1-4...

I also quiet fancy the Phins +3.

Also fancy over the 36 points mark.

Matt Santos

You are not alone Boccy with this game getting you down!
I make a reply and mention 11 ties. Reading back I think I get 7 of them correct and 4 of them wrong. In my accum I get three of them wrong!
I know what Kyrogen is saying in relation to the Patriots but in fairness I was not alone in thinking that New England could halt this Bronco charge. My mentality was that Dallas had them had Romo not kept playing the ball in the direction of Champ Bailey. The Patriots are a better side and a more dependable side than the Cowboys so it stood to reason that they were there for the taking.
We will soldier on though.......

jester1980

go Dolphins

boccy23

The Phins plus the over 36 got me back on track.

Maybe I'll learn and keep the bets to smaller accum's. Although for next week, there are a series of tasty options. :rolleyes:

jacool

this week will be very interesting for many reasons.
here are my initial thoughts, all subject to change !!
with 4 byes we have only 14 games and amazingly 6 of these are divisional games!
in the AFC East where things are tight the 3-2 NY Jets (-9.5 spread) host the Buffalo Bills and should defy the spread.
in the AFC North the 3-2 Pittsburgh Steelers (-13.5) host the 1-4 Cleveland Browns. Its a huge spread but doable.
in the AFC West first plays second but Denver Broncos are 5-0 against the San Diego Chargers 2-2. The Chargers are at home, and giving up 3.5 points, but i expect them to be celebrating on Monday night.
in the NFC North the bottom two meet at Green Bay, where the 2-2 packers host the 1 win in two years hence 1-4 Detroit Lions. The spread is -13, and although I expect Green Bay to win, I think they will not beat the spread. Go Lions.
the NFC South sees 0-5 Tampa host 1-3 Carolina Panthers. Tampa are getting 3.5 points at home, but that won't be enough to stop them losing on the spread.
the midtable tussle in the NFC West has the Cardinals and Seahawks facing up, in Seattle, where the home side have to give up 3 points. In a tight game that should be enough to see Seattle go 3-3 and overtake the Arizona Cardinals who should go to 2-3.

kryogen

jacool wrote: »

this week will be very interesting for many reasons.
here are my initial thoughts, all subject to change !!
with 4 byes we have only 14 games and amazingly 6 of these are divisional games!
in the AFC East where things are tight the 3-2 NY Jets (-9.5 spread) host the Buffalo Bills and should defy the spread.
in the AFC North the 3-2 Pittsburgh Steelers (-13.5) host the 1-4 Cleveland Browns. Its a huge spread but doable.
in the AFC West first plays second but Denver Broncos are 5-0 against the San Diego Chargers 2-2. The Chargers are at home, and giving up 3.5 points, but i expect them to be celebrating on Monday night.
in the NFC North the bottom two meet at Green Bay, where the 2-2 packers host the 1 win in two years hence 1-4 Detroit Lions. The spread is -13, and although I expect Green Bay to win, I think they will not beat the spread. Go Lions.
the NFC South sees 0-5 Tampa host 1-3 Carolina Panthers. Tampa are getting 3.5 points at home, but that won't be enough to stop them losing on the spread.
the midtable tussle in the NFC West has the Cardinals and Seahawks facing up, in Seattle, where the home side have to give up 3 points. In a tight game that should be enough to see Seattle go 3-3 and overtake the Arizona Cardinals who should go to 2-3.

be wary of this one, Panthers were unimpressive coming from behind to beat a pretty poor skins team at home.....by only 3

jester1980

agree with the above, Tampa have a QB who is looking decent after 2 starts in a row and would really fancy them to notch up thier first win in fairness..

boccy23

The following are this weeks picks.

Keeping it simple this week and opposing the really bad teams.

St. Louis (+10) at Jacksonville
Philadelphia (-14) at Oakland
Buffalo (+9½) at New York Jets
Tennessee (+9) at New England

I take these as givens that the favoured teams will easily cover in all cases. The Rams, Raiders, Bills and Titans are all horrible.

A €10 accumulator would return €72.

I will also do trebles.

KrustyUCC

i like those picks boccy

I will also add Green Bay -13 Detroit

Packers can't afford to fall further behind the Vikings. Vikings have a tough match v the Ravens at the weekend so Green Bay need to get the job done esp if Vikings slip up. Packers should be well rested after a bye last week.

jester1980

gone with 3 teams wo Handicap, Vikings, Bengals and Falcons and i've added in Tampa + 3 as well....

boccy23

Well another inglorious weekend. The Eagles and Jets losing at home scuppered any chances.

Made a small profit on over / unders but the above meant the overall weekend was a dead loss.

Teams that seem to be worth sticking with are Indianapolis, Atlanta & New Orleans. Others seems to be more flaky. Will have to choose carefully next week.

jester1980

same boat as yourself, should have taken your advise and left the Bengals alone..:mad:

Matt Santos

Same as you guys the Bengals cost me for I think the third time this year now!!
Got one treble up but it was the interest bet as oppossed to the "Treble of Doom!"
Had Kansas, Rams and Atlanta to cover their respective handicaps but not for the touch!
New Orleans look like the real deal now and I am starting to think they may go un defeated to the Championship game!! Brees is in another place at the moment and is fearless in this pursuit. To throw with such confidence against such a man on man defence as is the Giants was a feat to behold!!
Tennesse are in free fall now and Fisher must be staringt into the abyss with that Patriot anihilation....

jester1980

Yeah New Orleans proved (if they haven't done so alredy) that they are the real deal, every time thye had the balll they looked like getting TD. Great game to watch as well, full of excitement.

Matt Santos

So missed on the post last week but here we are for Week 7.
Obviously, the London game is the talk of the American Football fraternity and after Tom found his groove against the desperate Tennesse the media will be expecting another Tom show in Wembley.
San Fransisco go to Houston in a very interesting match up. Houston are starting to click and the notoriously slow starters are very strong in Texas but Singletary will have had a rest week to fix the set up after the thumping received at the hands of Atlanta. I think that the 49 er's are better than that and will put up a show but Houston is not the place to begin!
The Chargers are on their way to Kansas City and an under pressure Norv Turner really needs to get the result. They are a weird -5 away to Kansas and it may be an opportunity for an upset! Cassel is quality and the Chiefs have shown some signs of resurection. Stay away IMO.
Peyton comes off a rest week and takes his Colts to St. Louis. Colts are unopposable but the spread is 13.5! Probably will cover but I hate these big number covers.
One of the games of the week is in Pittsburgh with Farve and the Vikings coming to town. I think its an even money scrap and I will be taking the 4 points on offer for Minnesota. The Vikings will have all the guns to stop and punish the Steelers home or not.
Buffalo travel to Carolina with 7 points in the pocket on the spread. Carolina had a big result with both Washington and Tampa since they had a rest week but Buffalo are not to be sneezed at. The away defeat to Miami and the awful Cleveland game was washed away with a great take down of the Jets last week. I like the 7 points with this genuine team.
New York Jets go to California to the Raiders who are bouncing after the win last week against the much fancied Eagles. Jets are in a jam at the moment but should be able to pick the Raiders apart. A lesson from this American Football is to be able to disregard the previous weeks game and see the bigger picture. The Jets are better than the Raiders. Simple.
I love the Bears traveling to the Cardiac Cats. I have been so frustrated with Cinncinati that I promised to stay away from them but I see them getting beat here. The Bears with 1.5 pts is good enough for me. If this goes the other way queue the scream!!
Falcons are frightening the crap outta me! I said it last year that they were the most improving team of the second half of the season. They have carried it into this year and look strong. The destruction of San Fransisco was clinical. Going to the Jones dome against a rested Dallas looks the penalty kick of the week but you just dont know what Dallas team turns up!! Stay away.
Now, check this out! The Saints -6 against Miami! What the hell is that about! Maximum bet Saints to cover this. Need I say more.
Arizona going to the Meadowlands is another interesting match up. I thought that this would be about 2.5/3 in the spread but Arizona getting 7 points is strange. New York have played some hopeless teams this year already and were running over everybody until Brees got at them. They may be being over rated at the moment and the defending NFC Champs may have their number.
Monday night sees the washed up Redskins being toweled by the Eagles. Zorn is in cardiac arrest and an eagles backlash after last weeks disgrace could be on the cards.
The only other game is the Packers going to Cleveland. The early line looks like 7.5 and I cant see a Cleveland team holding back that wave. The Pack got a rest week under them and pummeled Detroit after it. The Green Bay is in its ascendency and lowly Cleveland will not stop that.

Anyway, the treble of doom shapes up like this.

New Orleans -6 in Miami,
Buffalo +7 in Carolina,
Chicago +1.5 in Cinncinatti.

Vikings, Green Bay, Colts, Jets and Arizona should cover but its only the three that get through. Will have a little interest three others but the minds not made up yet.;)

evil_seed

just spotted this thread :cool:. have been spread betting on the nfl for yrs now. its a nice earner when it works out plus gives added interest to games yo uwouldnt normally follow. i've been 1 team off for the past 3 weeks of some nice winnings. have had 2 accums click so far this season tho, which is nice.


I usually go for 4 teams. i havent made my picks yet but the 6 that i will be choosing from are:
Chargers -4.5
Colts -13
Steelers - 5
Texans - 3
Bengals - 1
Falcons +4

boccy23

This week I'm going for 2 lots of three teams, with a €5 treble and €5 doubles.

First one is

Patriots minus 15 versus Tampa.

Coming off a great win in a neutral venue. Really should be a blow out.

Vikings plus 5.5 versus Pittsburgh

Vikes are really hot right now and Pittsburgh cant seem to put teams away so getting 5.5 pushes me to the Vikes.

SF 49ers versus Texans

The Niners were embarassed last time out and coming off a bye week will be primed. Also Houston has a tendency to have a good week, then a bad week. Won last week so..

Second bet is:

Colts minus 13 versus Rams

The Colts may be the best team in football and ther Rams the worst. Enough said.

Saints -6 versus Miami

Saints defense doesn't get the credit becuase of Brees et all, but they were super impressive against the Giants.

Falcons +4 versus Dallas

The Falcons are a good team and getting 4 against a bad Dallas team is enough for me.

KrustyUCC

My selections this week

Colts -13 versus St Louis Peyton v a very bad Rams defence. should cover with some to spare
Patriots -15 versus Tampa Brady to light up Wembley against the terrible bucs
Saints -6 versus Miami Very impressive last week. if the offence gets into a rhytm they are very hard to stop.
Giants -7 versus Arizona Giants were humiliated last week in NO. Lot of players got found out. they will be out to make amends. Homr advantage should help

Matt Santos

Thats it for me! Those blasted Bengals are going to be the breaking of me.
AGH!!
:mad:

Matt Santos

Matt Santos wrote: »

So missed on the post last week but here we are for Week 7.
Obviously, the London game is the talk of the American Football fraternity and after Tom found his groove against the desperate Tennesse the media will be expecting another Tom show in Wembley.
San Fransisco go to Houston in a very interesting match up. Houston are starting to click and the notoriously slow starters are very strong in Texas but Singletary will have had a rest week to fix the set up after the thumping received at the hands of Atlanta. I think that the 49 er's are better than that and will put up a show but Houston is not the place to begin!
The Chargers are on their way to Kansas City and an under pressure Norv Turner really needs to get the result. They are a weird -5 away to Kansas and it may be an opportunity for an upset! Cassel is quality and the Chiefs have shown some signs of resurection. Stay away IMO.
Peyton comes off a rest week and takes his Colts to St. Louis. Colts are unopposable but the spread is 13.5! Probably will cover but I hate these big number covers.
One of the games of the week is in Pittsburgh with Farve and the Vikings coming to town. I think its an even money scrap and I will be taking the 4 points on offer for Minnesota. The Vikings will have all the guns to stop and punish the Steelers home or not.
Buffalo travel to Carolina with 7 points in the pocket on the spread. Carolina had a big result with both Washington and Tampa since they had a rest week but Buffalo are not to be sneezed at. The away defeat to Miami and the awful Cleveland game was washed away with a great take down of the Jets last week. I like the 7 points with this genuine team.
New York Jets go to California to the Raiders who are bouncing after the win last week against the much fancied Eagles. Jets are in a jam at the moment but should be able to pick the Raiders apart. A lesson from this American Football is to be able to disregard the previous weeks game and see the bigger picture. The Jets are better than the Raiders. Simple.
I love the Bears traveling to the Cardiac Cats. I have been so frustrated with Cinncinati that I promised to stay away from them but I see them getting beat here. The Bears with 1.5 pts is good enough for me. If this goes the other way queue the scream!!
Falcons are frightening the crap outta me! I said it last year that they were the most improving team of the second half of the season. They have carried it into this year and look strong. The destruction of San Fransisco was clinical. Going to the Jones dome against a rested Dallas looks the penalty kick of the week but you just dont know what Dallas team turns up!! Stay away.
Now, check this out! The Saints -6 against Miami! What the hell is that about! Maximum bet Saints to cover this. Need I say more.
Arizona going to the Meadowlands is another interesting match up. I thought that this would be about 2.5/3 in the spread but Arizona getting 7 points is strange. New York have played some hopeless teams this year already and were running over everybody until Brees got at them. They may be being over rated at the moment and the defending NFC Champs may have their number.
Monday night sees the washed up Redskins being toweled by the Eagles. Zorn is in cardiac arrest and an eagles backlash after last weeks disgrace could be on the cards.
The only other game is the Packers going to Cleveland. The early line looks like 7.5 and I cant see a Cleveland team holding back that wave. The Pack got a rest week under them and pummeled Detroit after it. The Green Bay is in its ascendency and lowly Cleveland will not stop that.

Anyway, the treble of doom shapes up like this.

New Orleans -6 in Miami,
Buffalo +7 in Carolina,
Chicago +1.5 in Cinncinatti.

Vikings, Green Bay, Colts, Jets and Arizona should cover but its only the three that get through. Will have a little interest three others but the minds not made up yet.;)

The Vikings was a devastating result for me especially with the way the game went. They had it but blew it! Favre paying back for some outragious plays in the last few weeks IMO! Breaking even with the trebles but am sooooooooo close to the bulls eye its crazy!!
Roll on next week.......

boccy23

Matt Santos wrote: »

The Vikings was a devastating result for me especially with the way the game went. They had it but blew it! Favre paying back for some outragious plays in the last few weeks IMO! Breaking even with the trebles but am sooooooooo close to the bulls eye its crazy!!
Roll on next week.......

In a similar boat myself. Vikes left me down and a kinda break even week.

Roll on next week indeed. Funny thing about this week was the blow outs. Hardly a close game.

boccy23

I had a look at this week and apart from the Saints and the Colts. I'm struggling to see where the other bets are coming from.

Anyone else got a clue?

Matt Santos

Well, its a ropey weekend of games but first impressions are like this.
Denver going to Baltimore is a potential banana skin for the undefeated Broncos. Baltimore are giving 3.5pts and I think Baltimore will take em. Wheels are coming off this Denver show this week.
The solid Buffalo meet Houston and this is a dodgey game! Texans should but the Bills are as genuine as hell and I think it will be close. Stay away.
The recovered Eagles greet the twice spanked Giants in a serious needle match. Giants will be desperate to get the season back on track and the Eagles are not unbeatable! Giants +1 looks safe.
The other New York franchise hold court with Miami who gave it all and lost last week. Jets have spluttered and revved but last weeks effort blew out the dust! Jets at home to win but may not cover the 3.5.....
Colts will spank the 49'ers. End of..
Cleveland are going to Soldier Field with an amazing 13.5 spread and I think they can hold this fragile Bear team to that.
Seattle go to the Jones Dome and again it depends on what Dallas team or should I say Romo that turns up. Dallas beat Atlanta by more than 9.5pts and Atlanta are better than Seattle so I go for Dallas.
St. Louis travel to Detroit with 4 points in pocket. Home advantage is all that seperates these two desperate teams. They could do anything so best to look on.
Again, San Diego are to turn over a huge 16.5 pts against the Raiders! A local derby game! Raiders have clicked and lost, clicked and won and just been plain awful but I cant see the Chargers handing them this type of beating..
Tennesse must win some time and this may be their time. A visiting Jacksonville team hold no surprises and the Titans should prevail.
Game of the week and it sees the legend of Lambeau return to the Field to turn over his old brethern. Home field advantage is huge to Green Bay and I think the Pack will play more for Rodgers than the Vikings for Brett. Packers to cover 3 pts.
Carolina go to the desert to face a jubilant and racing Arizona. After the win against the Giants belief is getting behind the NFC Champs and I see them walloping a woeful Panther franchise.
Monday night football goes to the Superdome and indoor New Orleans will face a strong Atlanta. Falcons will be smarting after the Dallas win and are well up to be the team that stopped the Saints but Brees is on fire. What a turn around last week! How far ahead would you want to be to think you had this crew put away? But, Falcons will be coming to win and with 10 pts to cover I like Atlanta.

Early pick for the Treble of Doom is.........

Colts +12 against San Francisco
Cleveland +13.5 against Chicago
Oakland +16.5 against San Diego

At a push I like Baltimore, Houston, Giants, Jets, Dallas and Tennesse

Happy punting guys;)

boccy23

The plays are as follows:

Colts -12 versus the 49ers
Jets -3 versus the Phins
Saints -10 versus the Falcons

I like the Colts all season and with Alex Smith starting, I fear the niners will turn the ball over too much on the road and the Colts will triumph.

The Jets lost on a last minute TD in Miami a couple of weeks ago and Rex called out the team. This will be a revenge killing. They will get back to basics, run the ball, get Sanchise to manage the game and cover.

Finally I have been on the Saints all year and will continue to do. They have won all games by double digits. Have won throwing the ball, running the ball, with the lead and coming from behind. The Falcons were made to look bad by a mediocure Dallas team last week. So I take the Saints to cover.

evil_seed

This weekend my picks will come from the following matches. I'm so close to getting it right. Good luck to all.

Cards -10, Packers -3, Jags +3, Jets -3, Texans -3.5

Matt Santos

Well, after bouncing all permutations about in the head I have narrowed it down to five selections. Gonna do a few multiples from the five and hopefully it reaps a big return. Christmas early and all that jazz.
I have changed my mind on a few selections and now think the Jets may be vulnerable in New York. Injuries are really taking its toll in Jet land and the Dolphins can put a few scores on the board.
Buffalo on closer inspection are very unlucky not to be 5 - 2 with Juaron doing a spectacular job with limited resources. Houston are a tough prospect but the Bills are tidy.
The five selections are as follows.....
1. Baltimore -3.5 at home to Denver. 5/6
2. Colts -13 at home to the 49er's. 10/11
3. Cleveland +13.5 away to Chicago. 10/11
4. Tennesse -3 at home to Jacksonville. 20/21
5. Arizona -10 at home to Carolina. 10/11

All are pretty realistic and a simple €50 accum yields €1304.....
And there is no Cinncinatti to balls things up!!

Best of luck