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Why are people buying houses when prices are on the way down?

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  • 07-09-2009 1:45pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 186 ✭✭


    I've been waiting and watching to buy a house..I'm a cash buyer (no mortgage..) and am seeking your standard semi d type in North dublin..I am renting at mo whilst I've been watching prices slide...to be honest I cant really afford a mortgage so need to buy wisely..

    Although prices are still sliding (slowly enough though..) I see that houses are still being snapped up...

    Why is this ? Why are people still paying more than what houses are REALLY worth???
    I'm beginning to think I'd better buy now rather than wait till next spring....


«1345

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭jetski


    So if your renting while watching prices slide why are you on here saying your thinking your better off buying now?

    you had a similar thread on here a while back with the same rub**sh.

    what are you talking about people paying more for houses than there really worth? what qualifies you to put a value on a house? Go look at house prices in major citys on the continent.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 174 ✭✭gar_29


    I've been waiting and watching to buy a house..I'm a cash buyer (no mortgage..) and am seeking your standard semi d type in North dublin..I am renting at mo whilst I've been watching prices slide...to be honest I cant really afford a mortgage so need to buy wisely..

    Although prices are still sliding (slowly enough though..) I see that houses are still being snapped up...

    Why is this ? Why are people still paying more than what houses are REALLY worth???
    I'm beginning to think I'd better buy now rather than wait till next spring....


    i bought first and foremost because i have a young family. we bought a family home, we will never move. maybe it would have been cheaper in 6 months, but we've bought for life. in twenty years time, i'll have no mortgage, no rent, and no concerns about what it's worth!

    rent is dead money, and so is bank interest/price falls. either way you're stuffed!!! :D

    my job is secure, but my wife's isn't. we calculated on the basis of my wage being the only one coming in, if she works it's a bonus.

    we had particular requirements, and we saw a house that fitted the bill precisely. who knows if another one would come along? in 4-5 months of looking, we only saw one other house that we even offered on.

    what is "really worth" as a term? (in a general sense, not being smarmy). if someone will pay X for a house, then that's what it's really worth to them.

    i watched the propetypin.com for a good while, and for the last month or so, it seems to me that price drops are happening less frequently and for smaller amounts. it used to be the case that every day there'd have been dozens of drops (talking about the dublin south forum, i wasn't watching the others). this would suggest to me that most houses are bottoming, or at least beginning to reach a point that they'll sell. there's always some chancer still trying to get 2006 prices, but they'll be waiting.....

    also, people talk about "the property market" as though all property in all areas is the same. theres a different market for one bed apartments on the outskirts of athlone and a semi-d in a decent area. my gut instinct is that the big falls are in the former, and the smaller falls are in the latter. (by smaller i mean 20-30-ish% from peak. still significant, but not the huge falls we see trumpeted in certain places). i have no idea what's happening with apartments, as i had no interest in one i haven't watched that bit of the market at all. i keep reading of tens of thousands of empty units, so i'd be wary if i was in the market for one of those.

    i made a decision based on MY circumstances, that suited me, and that best fitted my situation. i was aware that the economy is struggling, i was aware that prices are falling, i took account for future interest reate rises, but given all that, my decision was the best for me. can't really speak for anyone else!


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,879 ✭✭✭D3PO


    I've been waiting and watching to buy a house..I'm a cash buyer (no mortgage..) and am seeking your standard semi d type in North dublin..I am renting at mo whilst I've been watching prices slide...to be honest I cant really afford a mortgage so need to buy wisely..

    Although prices are still sliding (slowly enough though..) I see that houses are still being snapped up...

    Why is this ? Why are people still paying more than what houses are REALLY worth???
    I'm beginning to think I'd better buy now rather than wait till next spring....

    Everybody has a different perspective or requirment and depending on their individual circumstances buying now could the the right thing for them.

    Maybe they are expecing or trying to start a family and want to make sure the child isnt subjected to having to move around , fit into a new creche etc.

    maybe their age and term of mortgage they would like to take out are at a specific point that waiting longer will make their ideal house unaffordable even if they see another drop.

    different strokes for different folks. I


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,065 ✭✭✭Fighting Irish


    gar_29 wrote: »
    i bought first and foremost because i have a young family. we bought a family home, we will never move. maybe it would have been cheaper in 6 months, but we've bought for life. in twenty years time, i'll have no mortgage, no rent, and no concerns about what it's worth!

    rent is dead money, and so is bank interest/price falls. either way you're stuffed!!! :D

    So was buying your house now :pac:

    edit: oh yeah and lol @ "maybe"


  • Registered Users Posts: 186 ✭✭TheCityManager


    jetski wrote: »
    So if your renting while watching prices slide why are you on here saying your thinking your better off buying now?

    you had a similar thread on here a while back with the same rub**sh.

    what are you talking about people paying more for houses than there really worth? what qualifies you to put a value on a house? Go look at house prices in major citys on the continent.

    Thank you for your friendly input !!
    Perhaps going back to bed and getting out the other side might help you today :-)

    I am watching prices slides (slowly..) but watching out for what might be a bargain that I can afford..would love to buy now as I hate renting but am seeking the best financial outcome as all I have is my lump sum (cannot really afford a mortgage and possibly never will be able to..)
    Hence when I've been watching a specific house as it drops in value (hoping that it goes a wee bit more when I could afford it..) I'm disappointed when it's sold...which is a natural reaction..
    So obviously I wonder why people do buy in a market with sliding prices..and came on here to seek reassurance ..
    gar_29 has nicely answered my query..thank you gar...


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 174 ✭✭gar_29


    So was buying your house now

    did you read the full sentence? i also mention price falls. it was a tongue in cheek comment. i realise flippancy doesn't translate well to the screen, so sorry about that. come back to me in 20 years when you're still paying rent.

    edit: oh yeah and lol @ "maybe"

    i don't claim to be able to tell the future, and maybe you shouldn't either!


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,065 ✭✭✭Fighting Irish


    gar_29 wrote: »
    did you read the full sentence? i also mention price falls. it was a tongue in cheek comment. i realise flippancy doesn't translate well to the screen, so sorry about that. come back to me in 20 years when you're still paying rent.

    I'm not paying rent, but i wouldn't buy at the worst time either ;)




    gar_29 wrote: »
    i don't claim to be able to tell the future, and maybe you shouldn't either!

    Its fairly obvious prices are dropping, in 6 months if house prices have risen come back to me and i'll give you a tenner


  • Registered Users Posts: 78,387 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    People still need to live somewhere.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 639 ✭✭✭Acoustic


    op

    can't afford a mortgage but can afford rent ???


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 174 ✭✭gar_29


    I'm not paying rent, but i wouldn't buy at the worst time either ;)

    i think you'll find that the worst time was about two/three years ago!

    Its fairly obvious prices are dropping, in 6 months if house prices have risen come back to me and i'll give you a tenner

    i don't disagree with you in general, if you were to average the market. i think people need to talk more about specific sections of the market, rather than "property" as though it were one entity. (see my comment about apartment on the outsirts of athlone versus semi-d in a good established area)

    not too long ago it was "fairly obvious" that property was a nirvana, a way to endless riches, that the paradigm had shifted, etc.

    anyway, this has been done to death on lots of other threads! i just wanted to give my two cents about why i bought now. i certainly didn't go in blindly, nor was i charmed by a smooth salesman or a newspaper article. my circumstances made it the best decision for me. that's about the best answer i can give.


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,285 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Calm down folks.
    No more personal comments- debate by all means to your hearts content, but do it in a factual manner.

    OP- you ask why are people buying when prices are still on the way down. Many of these people simply were priced out of the market on the way up- and have been hanging around until their threshold is reached. Certainly many of the decisions to buy are totally irrational, but its difficult to appreciate how emotional people get when discussing property (or that new car, or the new kitchen.......). People very often do things that are not necessarily in their best interests- its part of being human. Sentiment is another part of the equation- many people have been made feel somehow inferior because they were not in a position to buy- and now feel they can.

    To be perfectly honest- and somewhat blunt- the Irish modern preoccupation with owning property is almost unique worldwide- it could almost be compared to the feudal systems that prevailed hundreds of years ago elsewhere.......


  • Registered Users Posts: 186 ✭✭TheCityManager


    Acoustic wrote: »
    op

    can't afford a mortgage but can afford rent ???

    Paying rent out of my lump sum :-(

    Actually I know a girl who received €115000 from family home sale after separation a few years ago...money is half gone now paying €1200 a month rent from that lump sum ... not a situation I intend ending up in...

    Thank you all for input !!


  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭jetski


    makes a pit more sence now....


  • Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 5,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭spockety


    gar_29 wrote: »
    i watched the propetypin.com for a good while, and for the last month or so, it seems to me that price drops are happening less frequently and for smaller amounts. it used to be the case that every day there'd have been dozens of drops (talking about the dublin south forum, i wasn't watching the others). this would suggest to me that most houses are bottoming, or at least beginning to reach a point that they'll sell. there's always some chancer still trying to get 2006 prices, but they'll be waiting.....

    I wouldn't take the behaviour of posters on the Sth Dublin property drops forum on the 'pin to mean anything at all. Their behaviour has changed as the years have gone by.

    In 2007, a price drop was of huge significance. In 2008, as they ramped up, people on that forum revelled in posting as many of them as they could. Now in late 2009, prices are still dropping, but it's boring now, no big deal. There are so many of them and they are happening so often that it's not really worth posting. Besides which, there is always irishpropertywatch.com and treesdontgrowtothesky.com to do it automatically.

    Here's a graph from one of those sites. As you can see, price drops are still happening, and quite a lot of them. Look at the >20% drops being seen this year, etc.

    daft_num_drops.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,065 ✭✭✭Fighting Irish


    gar_29 wrote: »
    i think you'll find that the worst time was about two/three years ago!

    I sort of meant the craziest time to buy is when prices are starting to fall, buying in 2007 would have been bad but you didn't know everything would crash a year later

    Anyways i'm bored and trolling :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,065 ✭✭✭Fighting Irish


    Paying rent out of my lump sum :-(

    Actually I know a girl who received €115000 from family home sale after separation a few years ago...money is half gone now paying €1200 a month rent from that lump sum ... not a situation I intend ending up in...

    Thank you all for input !!

    and the house she could have bought a few years ago with that €115000 is now probably half the price


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,065 ✭✭✭Fighting Irish


    spockety wrote: »
    I wouldn't take the behaviour of posters on the Sth Dublin property drops forum on the 'pin to mean anything at all. Their behaviour has changed as the years have gone by.

    In 2007, a price drop was of huge significance. In 2008, as they ramped up, people on that forum revelled in posting as many of them as they could. Now in late 2009, prices are still dropping, but it's boring now, no big deal. There are so many of them and they are happening so often that it's not really worth posting. Besides which, there is always irishpropertywatch.com and treesdontgrowtothesky.com to do it automatically.

    Here's a graph from one of those sites. As you can see, price drops are still happening, and quite a lot of them. Look at the >20% drops being seen this year, etc.

    daft_num_drops.png


    werd, the only thing slowing down the price drops are the people who think they're getting a bargain or that they found their "dream home"


  • Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 5,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭spockety


    werd, the only thing slowing down the price drops are the people who think they're getting a bargain or that they found their "dream home"

    It's a 'clearing of the decks'.

    Once the market at the current price point has completely died (i.e. all willing buyers are the level things are at right now have dried up), the next round of cuts will begin.

    Then a new round of willing buyers at the next price threshold will create a new mini market. They too will dry up, and the market will have to be cut again to create a new threshold at which people will enter the market in any way decent numbers.

    This will happen over, and over, and over, until we reach a point where the property market is no longer ill, and property prices reflect historical norms, or even worse (for some) the norms you would expect of a market attempting to function during one of the worst recessions in living memory.


  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭jetski


    spockety wrote: »
    It's a 'clearing of the decks'.

    Once the market at the current price point has completely died (i.e. all willing buyers are the level things are at right now have dried up), the next round of cuts will begin.

    Then a new round of willing buyers at the next price threshold will create a new mini market. They too will dry up, and the market will have to be cut again to create a new threshold at which people will enter the market in any way decent numbers.

    This will happen over, and over, and over, until we reach a point where the property market is no longer ill, and property prices reflect historical norms, or even worse (for some) the norms you would expect of a market attempting to function during one of the worst recessions in living memory.


    LOL

    Ill make a bet with you your wrong?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,065 ✭✭✭Fighting Irish


    spockety wrote: »
    It's a 'clearing of the decks'.

    Once the market at the current price point has completely died (i.e. all willing buyers are the level things are at right now have dried up), the next round of cuts will begin.

    Then a new round of willing buyers at the next price threshold will create a new mini market. They too will dry up, and the market will have to be cut again to create a new threshold at which people will enter the market in any way decent numbers.

    This will happen over, and over, and over, until we reach a point where the property market is no longer ill, and property prices reflect historical norms, or even worse (for some) the norms you would expect of a market attempting to function during one of the worst recessions in living memory.

    Yup, i just can't believe the amount of people who can't see this


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    spockety wrote: »
    I wouldn't take the behaviour of posters on the Sth Dublin property drops forum on the 'pin to mean anything at all. Their behaviour has changed as the years have gone by.

    In 2007, a price drop was of huge significance. In 2008, as they ramped up, people on that forum revelled in posting as many of them as they could. Now in late 2009, prices are still dropping, but it's boring now, no big deal. There are so many of them and they are happening so often that it's not really worth posting. Besides which, there is always irishpropertywatch.com and treesdontgrowtothesky.com to do it automatically.

    Here's a graph from one of those sites. As you can see, price drops are still happening, and quite a lot of them. Look at the >20% drops being seen this year, etc.

    daft_num_drops.png

    Reason- Its automated by scripts.

    In 2007 & part '08, it was manual searching. Once the daft scripts like IPW & PropertyBee came, there was no real incentive to post drops as they are now contained in reports and visual to the eye on Daft.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,800 ✭✭✭Senna


    Hence when I've been watching a specific house as it drops in value (hoping that it goes a wee bit more when I could afford it..) I'm disappointed when it's sold...which is a natural reaction..

    Your wondering why people buy now, but you are watching houses and hoping for another "wee bit more" of a drop then you'll buy it???:confused:
    I can understand if someone thinks houses have another 50% to drop and so are waiting and maybe asking the same question. But your post sounds like your close enough to buying?:confused:
    jetski wrote: »
    LOL

    Ill make a bet with you your wrong?

    The old "houses cant possibly sell for less than their worth"?

    The clearing price market activity happens in all markets, seller and buyer agree to a price both are happy with, if the seller does not reach a clearing price, a price drop is needed to stimulate investors (buyers).

    Why are normal market rules that apply to all other markets in Ireland not applicable to houses??
    Answer;
    The rules do apply, it just takes some people longer to realise


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,382 ✭✭✭✭AARRRGH


    From talking to people the majority are buying because they think there's great value in the market at the moment. Of course, they're comparing current prices to those at the peak of the boom, so they're not exactly being very smart.

    The reality is most people are a bit dumb (e.g. just look at the mass panic at the blatent scam that is swine flu) so most people are not going to be able to make wise decisions.

    But it's their life and their money, and at the end of the day what they're doing is relatively harmless, so...


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,210 ✭✭✭20goto10


    I've been waiting and watching to buy a house..I'm a cash buyer (no mortgage..) and am seeking your standard semi d type in North dublin..I am renting at mo whilst I've been watching prices slide...to be honest I cant really afford a mortgage so need to buy wisely..

    Although prices are still sliding (slowly enough though..) I see that houses are still being snapped up...

    Why is this ? Why are people still paying more than what houses are REALLY worth???
    I'm beginning to think I'd better buy now rather than wait till next spring....
    Houses are worth what they are worth NOW. If you want to buy a house for 2012 prices I'm affraid you'll have to wait until 2012. It's very simple when you think about it.

    I'm a buyer as well as a seller so I'm seeing both sides of the argument. I can tell you the property I'm selling is at the lowest its going to be. There is of course haggling room but the advertised price stays as it is. I'm also seeing that in many properties I'm viewing. I do realise there are many properties out there that are still vastly overpriced and will most likely be slashed in the coming months but I think it is no longer possible to make a broad generalisation that all property prices are over priced by X%.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,541 ✭✭✭irlrobins


    spockety wrote: »
    It's a 'clearing of the decks'.

    Once the market at the current price point has completely died (i.e. all willing buyers are the level things are at right now have dried up), the next round of cuts will begin.

    Then a new round of willing buyers at the next price threshold will create a new mini market. They too will dry up, and the market will have to be cut again to create a new threshold at which people will enter the market in any way decent numbers.

    This will happen over, and over, and over, until we reach a point where the property market is no longer ill, and property prices reflect historical norms, or even worse (for some) the norms you would expect of a market attempting to function during one of the worst recessions in living memory.

    This view is based on there being an infinite supply of property. I wouldn't necessary believe this is the case. Yes, in some areas there is definite over supply but in others supply levels have fallen.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,411 ✭✭✭oceanclub


    AARRRGH wrote: »
    From talking to people the majority are buying because they think there's great value in the market at the moment. Of course, they're comparing current prices to those at the peak of the boom, so they're not exactly being very smart.

    Same reason as people who didn't even own property here were buying apartments in Bulgaria for prices that people there couldn't afford to rent out; because, compared to Ireland, "they were so cheap!".

    P.


  • Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 5,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭spockety


    jetski wrote: »
    LOL

    Ill make a bet with you your wrong?

    What are the exact terms of the wager?

    "Wrong" about what?


  • Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 5,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭spockety


    irlrobins wrote: »
    This view is based on there being an infinite supply of property. I wouldn't necessary believe this is the case. Yes, in some areas there is definite over supply but in others supply levels have fallen.

    My view is not based on the belief that there is an infinite supply of property, but rather that there is actually plenty of property to go around for each demographic in the areas of their choice that people of their demographic would historically be resident in.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,981 ✭✭✭Diarmuid


    20goto10 wrote: »
    I think it is no longer possible to make a broad generalisation that all property prices are over priced by X%.
    But you can look at other housing price crashes and get and idea of what to expect. Eg UK crash from 89 From peak to trough, 6.5 years.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,210 ✭✭✭20goto10


    Diarmuid wrote: »
    But you can look at other housing price crashes and get and idea of what to expect. Eg UK crash from 89 From peak to trough, 6.5 years.
    You can't apply graphs and statistics and make a broad sweeping statement that all houses are going to fall by that amount. Statistics work on averages. House A could go up in price while house B goes down in price. If House B falls by more than House A rises then the average of the 2 shows a drop in prices. What people are saying is that House A must drop its price by that amount when in fact House A has actually gone up in price.

    Let me put it another way by using my own case as an example. I will not be dropping my price. There's room to haggle and thats it. And thats the attitude I'm getting from places I'm viewing. Maybe its because they are at a high standard, if there was a lower standard property out there going for the same price I'd expect them to drop their price. But more often than not you'll find the lower standard already comes with the lower price.


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