Hurricane FRED

billy the squid

Off the African Coast

bit of an odd one...

000
WTNT32 KNHC 072034
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST MON SEP 07 2009

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.5 WEST OR ABOUT
160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT...PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.5N 24.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

squonk

Could that be a premature end to our indian summer in a few days time?

Trogdor

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FRED CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH IMPRESSIVE CURVED BANDING. IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE
DATA SHOW THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF INNER CORE FEATURES AND THE
FIRST SIGNS OF AN EYE. AN 0808 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM
WINDS OF ABOUT 50 KT...AND 1200 UTC SATELLITE ESTIMATES WERE 55 KT
FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB. THE LATTER VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. FURTHER STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN WARM WATERS
AND LIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. THEREAFTER...SSTS DECREASE
AND AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 40W COULD START TO INDUCE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY
OF FRED AS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WHILE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS
LESS ROBUST BUT STILL MAKES FRED A HURRICANE. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THAT GUIDANCE AND IS HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS. IN THE LONGER-TERM...
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG WHILE THE
CYCLONE IS OVER MARGINAL SSTS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND THE DAY 3-5 FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM
MODEL.

OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION OF
ABOUT 275/12. FOR THE TIME BEING...FRED IS BEING STEERED PRIMARILY
BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS RIDGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
40W MOVES EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A
TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NORTHWEST...THEN TOWARD THE NORTH
BY DAY THREE. STEERING CURRENTS BECOME LIGHT AFTER THAT
TIME...WITH SOME HINTS OF A RIDGE REBUILDING TO THE NORTH CAUSING A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. THE CANADIAN AND THE UKMET ARE THE
ONLY TWO MODELS THAT HAVE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT EVOLUTION TO THE
PATTERN...SHOWING FRED MISSING THE FIRST TROUGH WHICH CAUSES A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION...BUT EVEN THOSE MODELS HAVE THE CYCLONE MOVING
NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 11.9N 28.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 12.4N 30.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 13.3N 32.1W 75 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 14.4N 33.2W 80 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 15.7N 34.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 17.7N 34.3W 60 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 19.0N 34.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 35.5W 40 KT

squonk wrote: »

Could that be a premature end to our indian summer in a few days time?

Who knows..the forecast track has it moving quite slowly though

Redsunset

Hurricane Fred

Latest UpdateWed, Sep 9, 2009, 05:00 AM EDT
CategoryHurricane - Category 2 Wind Speed105 mphPressure970 mbLatitude13.2° NLongitude31.7° WMovementWNW at 13 mph
Next UpdateWed, Sep 9, 2009, 11:00 AM EDT



000
WTNT32 KNHC 090835
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009

...FRED INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.7 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES...
805 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRED IS
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND FRED COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.2N 31.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Redsunset

000
WTNT42 KNHC 090835
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FRED HAS UNDERGONE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE EYE IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN CLOUD TOPS
OF -55 DEG C OR COLDER...AND THE DATA T-NUMBER IS AT LEAST 5.0.
THIS CORRESPONDS TO A CONSERVATIVE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90
KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. FRED IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TODAY. IN ABOUT 36 HOURS
OR SO...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING
INTO INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...FRED WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS. THIS
COMBINATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES SHOULD BRING ABOUT
WEAKENING...AND OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND
COMMENCING AFTER 24 HOURS. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH SEEM TO BE LESS
SENSITIVE TO INCREASED SHEAR...DO NOT WEAKEN FRED NEARLY AS MUCH AS
THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN BENDING GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW ABOUT
300/11. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN
WEAKENING AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES 35W NORTH OF
20N. DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS CAUSED BY THE TROUGH AND TO DECELERATE AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF FRED AND THIS COULD EVENTUALLY BLOCK THE
NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT QUITE AS FAST AS
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFDL AND HWRF TAKE FRED FARTHER NORTH
THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS...PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY KEEP FRED AS
A DEEP CYCLONE FOR TOO LONG.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 13.2N 31.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 14.1N 32.7W 100 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 15.4N 33.9W 100 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 16.5N 34.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 17.3N 34.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 18.4N 34.2W 60 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 20.6N 34.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 23.0N 34.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Redsunset

same image below