Red C Opinion Poll - 52% Yes

Euro_Kraut

I understand that tomorrows Sunday Business Post Red C Opinion Poll will show a result of:

62% - Yes
23% - No
15% - Don't Know

Excluding undecideds that gives 73% Yes, 27% No.

Edit: These figures, it appears, only relate to those so stated they were 'very likely' to vote. According to RTE the figure for all respondents are

52% - Yes
25% - No
23% - Don't Know


The SBP themselves have not made any distinction in this short report on their website:

Poll shows strong support for Lisbon
12/09/2009 - 18:42:51

A new opinion poll shows support for the Lisbon Treaty remains strong with just under three weeks to go to the referendum.

The survey shows more than six out of ten Irish people would now vote in favour of Lisbon.

It shows 23% say they will vote against the EU reform measures, while 15% are still undecided ahead of the ballot on October 2.

http://www.sbpost.ie/breakingnews/ireland/eycwgbkfmhau/

Mario007

Euro_Kraut wrote: »

I understand that tomorrows Sunday Business Post Red C Opinion Poll will show a result of:

62% - Yes
23% - No
15% - Don't Know

Excluding undecideds that gives 73% Yes, 27% No.

wow thats a huge lead for the yes side, even if the dont knows go to to no camp...however i don't want the yes camp to get too comfortable and stop campaign.

EDIT: I guess this shows us why Ganley is returning....

di2772

I think the Minimum wage €1.84 poster has done more for the yes camp than anything else.

If the no camp can lie that blatantly, then nobody can believe a word they put on a poster.

I was a havent decided before, but im going with yes now.

meglome

Euro_Kraut wrote: »

I understand that tomorrows Sunday Business Post Red C Opinion Poll will show a result of:

62% - Yes
23% - No
15% - Don't Know

Excluding undecideds that gives 73% Yes, 27% No.

OMG it's all a conspiracy against the No campaign. :rolleyes::D:eek:



Sorry couldn't resist, good to hear that sense might be returning.

My name is URL

Didn't Red C predict a lanslide Yes last time round?

Anyhoo, we don't even know what the question asked was, and there's not even a link to back this up.. "I understand" is hardly convincing!

O'Morris

meglome wrote:

Sorry couldn't resist, good to hear that sense might be returning.

It's not sense, it's fear.

BlondieCait

My name is URL wrote: »

Didn't Red C predict a lanslide Yes last time round?

:pac: All opinion polls are faked, the dogs on the street know this.

ei.sdraob

does anyone have a link to any polls in the lead up of last years referendum around the same 2-3 weeks to go time frame?


just so it can be compared and contrasted

Rb

O'Morris wrote: »

It's not sense, it's fear.

And who can blame them, what with slimey statements such as "Vote Yes for Jobs" targetting the poor down and outs who haven't a job at the moment.

The greedy manipulating the terrified, yet also greedy cowards that make up our nation's voters.

Disgusting.

BlondieCait

Rb wrote: »

yet also greedy cowards that make up our nation's voters.

:rolleyes:

First off the poll is faked, and secondly are you speaking of the "cowards" that voted NO in the face of the exact same propaganda last time around?

StealthRolex

BlondieCait wrote: »

:rolleyes:

First off the poll is faked, and secondly are you speaking of the "cowards" that voted NO in the face of the exact same propaganda last time around?

I would be cautious of accusing any business of faking their results. Here is a link to their website and how they gather and manipulated the data. The results may be genuine for the people they polled however as with all polls there is margin for error.

Red C only spoke to 1000 people who have phones.

The only valid poll will be October 2.

http://www.redcresearch.ie/themethodology.html

My name is URL

BlondieCait wrote: »

:rolleyes:

First off the poll is faked, and secondly are you speaking of the "cowards" that voted NO in the face of the exact same propaganda last time around?

Same propaganda, but now with 30% more people taking notice due to circumstances created by the same government that'll be protected by a Yes vote

Martin 2

di2772 wrote: »

I think the Minimum wage €1.84 poster has done more for the yes camp than anything else.

If the no camp can lie that blatantly, then nobody can believe a word they put on a poster.

I was a havent decided before, but im going with yes now.

I think you’re right however I’m currently canvassing for a Yes on the street and I’ve been asked a few times if the minimum wage will be E1.84 after Lisbon so unfortunately some people do believe the posters… at least it’s easy to dismiss

StealthRolex

Martin 2 wrote: »

I think you’re right however I’m currently canvassing for a Yes on the street and I’ve been asked a few times if the minimum wage will be E1.84 after Lisbon so unfortunately some people do believe the posters… at least it’s easy to dismiss

and if they asked " will there be jobs if I vote Yes" would you lie to them knowing that there is nothing in the treaty that says there will be jobs?

O'Morris

Martin 2 wrote:

I think you’re right however I’m currently canvassing for a Yes on the street and I’ve been asked a few times if the minimum wage will be E1.84 after Lisbon so unfortunately some people do believe the posters… at least it’s easy to dismiss

Are people asking you if we'll be kicked out of Europe if we vote no?

Dinner

StealthRolex wrote: »

I would be cautious of accusing any business of faking their results. Here is a link to their website and how they gather and manipulated the data. The results may be genuine for the people they polled however as with all polls there is margin for error.

You're right, they do have a margin of error... of a whopping 3%.

Any proof of them manipulating their data or would you rather just smear another polling company and dismiss statistics?

StealthRolex

ei.sdraob wrote: »

does anyone have a link to any polls in the lead up of last years referendum around the same 2-3 weeks to go time frame?


just so it can be compared and contrasted

You know what will happen on the day - FF, FG and anyone who has a car will round up all their feeble minded elderly relatives and drive them to the polling station and remind them to vote Yes.

They'll go in and say "that little fecker, ever since s\he had TD asspirations only ever shows up when s\he wants me to vote on something. Then s\he has the feckin' cheek to tell me how to vote. I'll show him\her" and then promptly vote No :-)

StealthRolex

Dinner wrote: »

You're right, they do have a margin of error... of a whopping 3%.

Any proof of them manipulating their data or would you rather just smear another polling company and dismiss statistics?

Yes right here http://www.redcresearch.ie/polling_techniques.html

Manipulation is a technical term You can also use the term "massage".

If you had ever worked in an operation that uses statistics as a business tool you would know this.

You appear to think that just collecting the numbers is all that is involved. It's a bit more complicated than that.

Dinner

StealthRolex wrote: »

You appear to think that just collecting the numbers is all that is involved. It's a bit more complicated than that.

And you seem to think that surveys are only valid for the people they surveyed.

StealthRolex

Dinner wrote: »

You're right, they do have a margin of error... of a whopping 3%.

Any proof of them manipulating their data or would you rather just smear another polling company and dismiss statistics?

A 3% error is their published error. As this is a phone poll they have to rely on the person on the other end of the phone being truthful and honest. This can cause dirty data which is difficult to eliminate.

Also it is entirely possible that some of the people contacted will have a vested interest.

I'm not accusing or smearing anyone. I am suggesting that polling or surveying is not always the best way to collect your data.

This is why we have polling stations open on a particular day for a certain amount of time and the only data collected is the number of Yes or No votes.

I'm running out of eggs here - can you not suck yet?

BlondieCait

Dinner wrote: »

And you seem to think that surveys are only valid for the people they surveyed.

And he would be right.

If you do a poll on who is going to win the premier league, would standing outside Old Trafford compared to the Emirates have any effect?

As for polling companies, YES they are all bought and paid for.

Catch yourself on.

StealthRolex

Dinner wrote: »

And you seem to think that surveys are only valid for the people they surveyed.

The data is only valid for the data collected. They could try Cochrane Collaboration methods but in general they don't.

Besides the electorate is well in excess of 400,000 and they sample 1000.

That's a little over 0.0002%

Statistically significant? Go figure

ei.sdraob

StealthRolex wrote: »

The data is only valid for the data collected. They could try Cochrane Collaboration methods but in general they don't.

Besides the electorate is well in excess of 400,000 and they sample 1000.

That's a little over 0.0002%

Statistically significant? Go figure

would you say the same about

http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055615489

almost 1000 votes now as well

or only polls that dont agree with you are "insignificant"?

---

does anyone have any polls from before last treaty?

meglome

O'Morris wrote: »

It's not sense, it's fear.

Rb wrote: »

And who can blame them, what with slimey statements such as "Vote Yes for Jobs" targetting the poor down and outs who haven't a job at the moment.

The greedy manipulating the terrified, yet also greedy cowards that make up our nation's voters.

Disgusting.

My name is URL wrote: »

Same propaganda, but now with 30% more people taking notice due to circumstances created by the same government that'll be protected by a Yes vote

I don't doubt there's some element of fear in people's decision to vote Yes. Many people have realised just how much we really do need the EU this time around. However I don't think the Yes campaign are scaremongering per se.

But guys I'm really sick of the whining from the No campaign which did nothing but lie and scaremonger to win the last time. You made that bed now you might have to lie in it.

Martin 2

StealthRolex wrote: »

and if they asked " will there be jobs if I vote Yes" would you lie to them knowing that there is nothing in the treaty that says there will be jobs?

Even though I tend to talk about the multinational sector and jobs therein on this site, I don’t mention that while canvassing, I think most people take it as a given that voting yes is more likely than a No to benefit the economy so they don’t question it. If I were asked, with reference to the treaty, I’d say that the Energy and Environmental provisions have the potential to create jobs in green energy technology development.

On O’Morris’s point, I was asked that question once and I replied that there is no danger of the EU kicking us out after a No…

ei.sdraob

meglome wrote: »

I don't doubt there's some element of fear in people's decision to vote Yes. Many people have realised just how much we really do need the EU this time around. However I don't think the Yes campaign are scaremongering per se. But guys I'm really sick of the whining from the No campaign which did nothing but lie and scaremonger to win the last time. You made that bed now you might have to lie in it.

im still waiting to see on positive NO poster

all that negativity is gonna backfire on them

meglome

StealthRolex wrote: »

A 3% error is their published error. As this is a phone poll they have to rely on the person on the other end of the phone being truthful and honest. This can cause dirty data which is difficult to eliminate.

Also it is entirely possible that some of the people contacted will have a vested interest.

I'm not accusing or smearing anyone. I am suggesting that polling or surveying is not always the best way to collect your data.

This is why we have polling stations open on a particular day for a certain amount of time and the only data collected is the number of Yes or No votes.

I'm running out of eggs here - can you not suck yet?

I heard that God was biased against the No campaign.

(I've said that already. The oppression complex some of your guys have is starting to get on my nerves.)

Stark

ei.sdraob wrote: »

would you say the same about

http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055615489

almost 1000 votes now as well

or only polls that dont agree with you are "insignificant"?

---

does anyone have any polls from before last treaty?

In fairness, I would think RED C are a bit better at the polling business than boards.ie. For one thing Red C would be better at weeding out any duplicate accounts that posted or any groups of people sent from politics.ie or whereever to upset the poll.

meglome

ei.sdraob wrote: »

im still waiting to see on positive NO poster

all that negativity is gonna backfire on them

Exactly

My name is URL

Stark wrote: »

In fairness, I would think RED C are a bit better at the polling business than boards.ie. For one thing Red C would be better at weeding out any duplicate accounts that posted or any groups of people sent from politics.ie or whereever to upset the poll.

Do you have any more info on this phantom poll by Red C? It's mentioned on a few sites without any source given.

For all anyone knows, the question was "Will you vote the same again?".. kind of turns it on its head then

StealthRolex

ei.sdraob wrote: »

would you say the same about

http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055615489

almost 1000 votes now as well

or only polls that dont agree with you are "insignificant"?

---

does anyone have any polls from before last treaty?

Apologies - I didn't have the previous polls but I have a recollection that the last poll suggested ~60% for.

Firstly I did not use the term "insignificant". The term statistically significant has a meaning in statistics that is related to the data and the sample size against a measure of whether or not the result is affected be certain factors.
Additionally random sampling of telephone numbers is not strictly speaking a random sample of the electorate as there are people who do not have phones or who choose screen their calls. On top of this Red C, while it may have a 24/7 polling operation- I don't know this - there can be noise generated in the data depending on when they call.

Most businesses in Ireland work 9-5 or 8-6 or whatever. If Red C only called people during the day then most of the land line numbers would be people not working. They probably do factor this in to their normal data cleansing and "adjusting" - I won't use the term manipulation because some people think this is a form of data fixing. It's not but as I've said I've run out of eggs and now the needle is blunt - as with most polls it should be taken for what it is. A random poll that more than likely will bear little relation to the result on the day. See previous polls for examples.

Now the poll you present is the poll from boards.ie. Again this is open to being "dirty data" due to the fact that some posters here may have multiple personalities - sorry, accounts - and the data in this poll cannot be trusted. Also it is not a random sample and those included are in general middle class living or working in an area with access to a PC and the internet.

So in short, no I do not agree with that poll for the reasons outlined.

Now, if only 1000 people in this country have a PC with internet access and are members of boards.ie with a sufficient interest in Lisbon to bother clicking one of the options on the poll you presented then there are 445,5347 or whatever other people who are not getting the benefit of the discussions here.

So can I suggest to you to get out there and canvass. Both you - go on, Yes campers and No campers. off you go.

And if you are planning on driving granny to the polling station - be nice and visit her a couple of times beforehand.