Red C Opinion Poll - 52% Yes

Kashkai

While everyone here is shouting "vote yes" or "vote no", one itty bitty issue has been overlooked and that is the great unwashed went against the wishes of the politicians, the employers, the unions and everone else in high society and said NO last time. Shouldn't that have been it then???? (rhetorical question as we were supposed to vote yes and we'll have to keep on voting until we do what we are told - bit like the wife nagging you until you eventually relent and just do what she wants to shut her up :rolleyes:).

I was neutral last time and didn't vote due to the appalling lack of sound information from either side. It appears that not much has changed, i.e.

No side - the €1.84 minimum wage . The great EU dictatorship will take "away our freedoms won by the 1916 rebels" etc etc

Yes side - we'll lose jobs if we vote no. Er aren't we losing jobs hand over fist anyways and have been for years due to pricing ourselves out of the market place. Multinationals are still going to move to China et al for their bargain basement labour rates anyway even if we do vote yes.

I'm voting no purely because the democratic decision of my fellow citizens in 2008 was utterly ignored by our national leaders as well as the EU so to hell with them. Probably not a good enough reason for the "Yes" camp but thats democracy in action.

nesf

Guys, do not under any circumstances post here stating that a poll is rigged or faked without providing ample evidence. Seriously, a ban for the next person to do this.

nesf

My name is URL wrote: »

Didn't Red C predict a lanslide Yes last time round?

No it was the first poll to show the No side gaining ground and momentum on the Yes side in the last referendum: http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0426/lisbon.html


For reference their poll directly a week the last referendum had Yes 43% No 38%, with the No side showing a strong trend over the previous 6 months going from 25% to 38% and gaining support in each subsequent poll done by RedC which shows that their method while not perfect, did capture a fairly good picture of what was happening on the ground (i.e. that the No side were hoovering up undecided voters). (Details: http://www.redcresearch.ie/documents/SBP8thJunePollReport.pdf)

Their post Lisbon poll done with the same methodology had No 51% Yes 49%. (Details: http://www.redcresearch.ie/documents/PostReferendumPollJune2008-Chartset_000.pdf)

nesf

StealthRolex wrote: »

I would be cautious of accusing any business of faking their results. Here is a link to their website and how they gather and manipulated the data. The results may be genuine for the people they polled however as with all polls there is margin for error.

Red C only spoke to 1000 people who have phones.

The only valid poll will be October 2.

http://www.redcresearch.ie/themethodology.html

1000 people in the sample is pretty standard. It'll be roughly similar for most other polls.

Mario007

My name is URL wrote: »

Do you have any more info on this phantom poll by Red C? It's mentioned on a few sites without any source given.

For all anyone knows, the question was "Will you vote the same again?".. kind of turns it on its head then

its on the rte website i think. and thats a pretty credible site, to be fair.

nesf

Rb wrote: »

And who can blame them, what with slimey statements such as "Vote Yes for Jobs" targetting the poor down and outs who haven't a job at the moment.

The greedy manipulating the terrified, yet also greedy cowards that make up our nation's voters.

Disgusting.

Were you equally disgusted by the abortion, neutrality and other nonsense posters from the No campaign in Lisbon I? I don't remember you complaining about them.

nesf

For reference for people new to polls:

We're not interested in the exact numbers here, what we're looking for are trends across all the polls. Last time the trend was for the No side to pick up votes in poll after poll and for the Yes side to haemorrhage them. The Yes side may have been "ahead" in the polls a week before the referendum but the momentum was all behind the No side and that was the most valuable piece of information from the polls.

Here, assuming this poll is real, is interesting but it's relatively meaningless until next week when the next set or results start coming out and we get to see where the trend in voter movement between the two sides is.

P. Breathnach

StealthRolex wrote: »

The data is only valid for the data collected. They could try Cochrane Collaboration methods but in general they don't.

Besides the electorate is well in excess of 400,000 and they sample 1000.

That's a little over 0.0002%

Statistically significant? Go figure

It is a large enough sample to be statistically significant on questions of this type. Cut out the innuendo.

meglome

Prosperous Dave wrote: »

I'm voting no purely because the democratic decision of my fellow citizens in 2008 was utterly ignored by our national leaders as well as the EU so to hell with them. Probably not a good enough reason for the "Yes" camp but thats democracy in action.

If the democratic decision of your fellow citizens was ignored the Lisbon treaty would have been ratified which it wasn't. That however doesn't stop the government calling another referendum, as has happened a number of times in the past. If we had such a problem with these multiple votes we should have campaigned to have our constitution changed. but to my knowledge no one has done that. Now when we add to that only 28% of the electorate voted No and of those 66% voted because they didn't know, or for things that were not in the treaty, or have been addressed. All this says to me it's VERY democratic to vote again.

PopeBuckfastXVI

Rb wrote: »

And who can blame them, what with slimey statements such as "Vote Yes for Jobs" targetting the poor down and outs who haven't a job at the moment.

The greedy manipulating the terrified, yet also greedy cowards that make up our nation's voters.

Disgusting.

Maybe people are terrified of the poster showing the 'worker' getting anally raped by the gavel. Perhaps they will vote 'yes' just to get rid of it.

allthedoyles

As you all know , there is always light at the end of the tunnel.

And you will find that a YES vote will lead to a turn-around in the Irish economy .

Euro_Kraut

Hi guys, some ambiguity about the figures I gave earlier. It appears those results may have been only for voters who said they were 'very likely' to vote. This is backed up by the RTE report here: http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0912/lisbonpoll.html but possibly contradicted by the SBP own website report here: http://www.sbpost.ie/breakingnews/ireland/eycwgbkfmhau/

I guess when the actual paper comes out we will know exactly.

According to RTE the figure for all respondents are

Yes - 52%
No - 25%
Don't Know - 23%

These figures are lot closer to the Irish Times poll last week.

FutureTaoiseach

Red C had an appalling record in Lisbon I in terms of getting it wrong. They even included in their last poll fieldwork from the week before the last of the campaign. RTE portrayed this as a swing back to the yes side, following the no vote in the TNS-MRBI poll, and that was disproven on polling day. What I find especially disingenuous is that the Sunday Business Post link to their breaking-news section doesn't - as you said - point out that it's just more like 5 out of ten when all voters are included. I also question the use of "likely voter" models in Irish referenda. A Libertas figure has also informed me that Red C are working for FF and "Ireland for Europe" in this campaign and have refused to work for anyone from the no side when asked.

allthedoyles wrote:

And you will find that a YES vote will lead to a turn-around in the Irish economy .

And if it doesn't a lot of people are going to feel cheated. I, for one, don't accept the campaign is over. The impact of Ganley's re-entry to the campaign remains to be seen. 67,000 votes was a strong performance for a new candidate in a party founded just months before, and with 100,000 votes nationally (5.4%) I would have thought this will give the no side at least a small boost, especially in the middle-classes and voters concerned with the economy, for whom Ganley's undoubted success as an entrepreneur may carry some credibility in an referendum that mightn't have been as relevant in an election, where tribal-loyalties have been the downfall of many a new political-party. We live in a country where only 25% of the electorate are truly up for grabs if you're not FF-FG-Labour. Ganley got approx 20% of that vote.

Meglome wrote:

If the democratic decision of your fellow citizens was ignored the Lisbon treaty would have been ratified which it wasn't. That however doesn't stop the government calling another referendum, as has happened a number of times in the past. If we had such a problem with these multiple votes we should have campaigned to have our constitution changed. but to my knowledge no one has done that. Now when we add to that only 28% of the electorate voted No and of those 66% voted because they didn't know, or for things that were not in the treaty, or have been addressed. All this says to me it's VERY democratic to vote again

On this business of "what was not in the Treaty", you are failing to recognise that much in it is open to interpretation and that is where the ECJ will come in. The no side has consistently brought up the question of Article 48, Article 113 TFEU and Article 28a(3) (mutual-assistance clause). Even RTE's Seán Whelen admitted he was very uncertain what exactly mutual-assistance would mean in practice. At the end of the day, judges - not politicians - are going to end up interpreting what's in this Treaty. I am also curious as to whether you are including in 'not in the treaty', the 16% who - in the govt's research cited 'loss of power/independence', or the 26% who cited "specific treaty elements". And we all know from bitter experience in Ireland how unpredictable that process can be with respect to the Irish Constitution and Irish law.

realismpol

ei.sdraob wrote: »

im still waiting to see on positive NO poster

all that negativity is gonna backfire on them

Nice one with the oxymoron. But seriously i guess your right. I think all that negativity will backfire on the no side....but then people will soon forget about all that nonsense once they pass lisbon and a few months to a year down the line realise what they have really let themselves in for. Hey im voting yes and ill admit but not because i believe in lisbon quite the opposite. I just want to see the look on the faces of people when they come to realise what lisbon really means for this country and its people. :pac:

Hey you get what you deserve in life.

FutureTaoiseach

When I brought the likely-voters part of the poll (saying 62% yes) with my friend Colm - a fanatical supporter of the Treaty - he texted back "Think is MUCH closer" and "Don't believe it". So as a matter of interest I would like to ask the forum this question: Do you think the Red C poll is how it's going to turn out on October 2nd? After all, they were badly wrong in the Lisbon I polls, with a lead for the yes side in all of them.

meglome

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

When I brought the likely-voters part of the poll (saying 62% yes) with my friend Colm - a fanatical supporter of the Treaty - he texted back "Think is MUCH closer" and "Don't believe it". So as a matter of interest I would like to ask the forum this question: Do you think the Red C poll is how it's going to turn out on October 2nd? After all, they were badly wrong in the Lisbon I polls, with a lead for the yes side in all of them.

I'm getting more optimistic of a Yes vote. In Lisbon 1 two friends of mine were heading off that evening to vote Yes. But they met a customer of theirs who explained if they voted Yes they wouldn't get to vote on future EU treaty's. Obviously they now know this wasn't true but at the time they switched, last minute. My feeling is that happened quite a bit with the scare tactics used by the No campaign and could explain the difference between the polls and the results. This time out I'd like to think the polls will be more accurate as the same tactics won't work as well.

ei.sdraob

meglome wrote: »

I'm getting more optimistic of a Yes vote. In Lisbon 1 two friends of mine were heading off that evening to vote Yes. But they met a customer of theirs who explained if they voted Yes they wouldn't get to vote on future EU treaty's. Obviously they now know this wasn't true but at the time they switched, last minute. My feeling is that happened quite a bit with the scare tactics used by the No campaign and could explain the difference between the polls and the results. This time out I'd like to think the polls will be more accurate as the same tactics won't work as well.

there was phone campaign in galway on the last day

where people (mostly women with children) were rang up and a rumor was spread

that their children would be conscripted

no joke

talk about scaremongering :mad:

Spiritoftheseventies

Polls are what they are. Polls. If they were accurate, FF would be in opposition right now. Know PP have reduced the odds on the Yes Vote since Ganley entered race but citizens should vote on principle. If you dont agree with treaty vote No, if you do vote yes. Ignore the Polls and bookies. They are a distraction and irrelevant.

Sam Vimes

Prosperous Dave wrote: »

While everyone here is shouting "vote yes" or "vote no", one itty bitty issue has been overlooked and that is the great unwashed went against the wishes of the politicians, the employers, the unions and everone else in high society and said NO last time. Shouldn't that have been it then????

It hasn't been overlooked. You are the 1,034,273,528th person to make the same invalid point on this forum

Sam Vimes

realismpol wrote: »

Nice one with the oxymoron. But seriously i guess your right. I think all that negativity will backfire on the no side....but then people will soon forget about all that nonsense once they pass lisbon and a few months to a year down the line realise what they have really let themselves in for. Hey im voting yes and ill admit but not because i believe in lisbon quite the opposite. I just want to see the look on the faces of people when they come to realise what lisbon really means for this country and its people. :pac:

Hey you get what you deserve in life.

I too want to see the look on people's faces when they realise what Lisbon really means. When* it gets passed and the sky very noticeably doesn't fall down the look on all the doomsayers faces will be hilarious.

They've all had the same dire predictions for every treaty we've signed up to. They were wrong before and they're wrong this time too

*assuming it will be. I don't have much confidence

ei.sdraob

Sam Vimes wrote: »

I too want to see the look on people's faces when they realise what Lisbon really means. When* it gets passed and the sky very noticeably doesn't fall down the look on all the doomsayers faces will be hilarious.

They've all had the same dire predictions for every treaty we've signed up to. They were wrong before and they're wrong this time too

*assuming it will be. I don't have much confidence

quick

link to the SF page about the Nice Treaty consequences

is_that_so

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

When I brought the likely-voters part of the poll (saying 62% yes) with my friend Colm - a fanatical supporter of the Treaty - he texted back "Think is MUCH closer" and "Don't believe it". So as a matter of interest I would like to ask the forum this question: Do you think the Red C poll is how it's going to turn out on October 2nd? After all, they were badly wrong in the Lisbon I polls, with a lead for the yes side in all of them.

RED C called FF at 42% in the last election and were spot on. Their polls had the Yes vote about 7% ahead but there was a trend towards No, at the same stage but with more undecided. It will be closer, as your friend said, but with only 23% undecided it is hard to see where the No vote will get the votes.

Hitman Actual

nesf wrote: »

No it was the first poll to show the No side gaining ground and momentum on the Yes side in the last referendum: http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0426/lisbon.html


For reference their poll directly a week the last referendum had Yes 43% No 38%, with the No side showing a strong trend over the previous 6 months going from 25% to 38% and gaining support in each subsequent poll done by RedC which shows that their method while not perfect, did capture a fairly good picture of what was happening on the ground (i.e. that the No side were hoovering up undecided voters). (Details: http://www.redcresearch.ie/documents/SBP8thJunePollReport.pdf)

Their post Lisbon poll done with the same methodology had No 51% Yes 49%. (Details: http://www.redcresearch.ie/documents/PostReferendumPollJune2008-Chartset_000.pdf)

Yep, this is exactly how I remember it, the trend was always with the No side catching up rapidly in the last month or so. I also thought there was another poll (TNS/MRBI maybe) that actually showed the No side marginally ahead in the last week, but I could be wrong.

Just on the margin-of-error figure on these types of polls: AFAIK, a 3% MOE means that if they ran the same poll again, or several polls, under the exact same conditions, the results of all polls would be within 3% of each other. A 3% margin-of-error doesn't mean that a Yes figure of, say, 60% is correct to 3% (well, it is kind of related, but it's not what the MOE figure really means).

Regarding the boards polls, you have to remember that the demographic here wouldn't include a lot of older people (say > 40) who would tend to be Yes voters. I know that the poll here for the first referendum was very accurate, but I think the sentiment of the demographic here at that time was very relective of the nation as a whole, including amongst older voters who would have tended to be Yes voters. I expect that to be different this time around. I'm not particularly worried about the boards polls at the moment, but I also don't expect there to be a Yes result like what RedC are polling. I think Yes will still win out, though.

mikemac

ei.sdraob wrote: »

there was phone campaign in galway on the last day

where people (mostly women with children) were rang up and a rumor was spread

that their children would be conscripted

no joke

talk about scaremongering :mad:

lol, they were scaremongering about conscription for the Maastricht treaty in the early 1990's. Still waiting......

Though there are few local vandals and skangers in the locality I wouldn't mind seeing bundled off to some training camp in Europe :mad:

Spiritoftheseventies

mikemac wrote: »

lol, they were scaremongering about conscription for the Maastricht treaty in the early 1990's. Still waiting......

Though there are few local vandals and skangers in the locality I wouldn't mind seeing bundled off to some training camp in Europe :mad:

Scare mongering on yes side too. This whole idea that we will be kicked out of Europe is we don't vote yes is scare tactics of the worst kind.
At least you could say about abortion, Taxation and Neutrality that they were honest concerns by people.
Politicians and yes Campaigners who say we will be marginalized are being irresponsible. Its a take or leave it treaty. Dont ask any questions, trust us on everything.
Again the treaty is complex. We are being to vote on everything. Its not like having a list of proposals at an AGM where motions are passed or rejected.

meglome

bayviewclose wrote: »

At least you could say about abortion, Taxation and Neutrality that they were honest concerns by people.

But they weren't honest concerns until after the No campaign lied to people and made them so. These things could never have happened after Lisbon.

bayviewclose wrote: »

Again the treaty is complex. We are being to vote on everything. Its not like having a list of proposals at an AGM where motions are passed or rejected.

There are guides that explain the treaty but seemingly they are 'biased'.

ilovelamp2000

If you're not sure what you're voting for or against it's worth reading the Schuman declaration:

http://europa.eu/abc/symbols/9-may/decl_en.htm

The pooling of coal and steel production should immediately provide for the setting up of common foundations for economic development as a first step in the federation of Europe, and will change the destinies of those regions which have long been devoted to the manufacture of munitions of war, of which they have been the most constant victims.

Spiritoftheseventies

meglome wrote: »

But they weren't honest concerns until after the No campaign lied to people and made them so. These things could never have happened after Lisbon.



There are guides that explain the treaty but seemingly they are 'biased'.

What Im saying you are voting for the whole package here. Most people would admit that they would yes to A, B, C but not necessarily to D, E, and F.

nesf

Rosco1982 wrote: »

If you're not sure what you're voting for or against it's worth reading the Schuman declaration:

http://europa.eu/abc/symbols/9-may/decl_en.htm

Dude, that statement is from 1950...

nesf

bayviewclose wrote: »

What Im saying you are voting for the whole package here. Most people would admit that they would yes to A, B, C but not necessarily to D, E, and F.

Well the whole problem is this: any treaty will have good and bad points and what we need to do is vote on whether we think it is on balance good for Ireland and the EU.

The issue is that many No groups try to convince people that they should not pass any treaty that has any "bad" points. The problem being that this is essentially saying that you should never pass any EU treaty because being what they are, there will always be some points that aren't good.