In_tuition's weekly golf selection

In_tuition

In_tuition wrote: »

Wilson knocked out today by losing to Allenby.

Fisher through to the semi-final to face Cabrera. So fingers crossed of some profit for the event.

Fisher through to the final against Anthony Kim tomorrow

In_tuition

In_tuition wrote: »

With just a couple of events left on the PGA Tour season players are looking to get exemptions and their tour card for '10 season. The Viking Classic takes centre stage this week. Not many of you will be familiar with it as it's taken a backstage seat in recent years, in that it's played second fiddle to other PGA Tour events in the same week but not this year. This weeks event contains 5 players who have won in 09 and no less than 10 major winners but I'm quietly confident with my selections this week so very hopeful of a bold show from each one of them.

It's a long course but it doesn't necessarily mean that big hitters will prosper although giving the rain that's been falling all last week and the forecast of much more to come it's looking like the course will play much much longer than usual as the fairways and rough are bermuda grass which offer very little roll in the wet.

Woody Austin, T6 at The Colonial last May, which is a similar course to this weeks. Austin was %74 for greens-in-regulation in that event and %70 for scrambling, these are 2 key factors that will decide who wins the event this week. He was 9th in the St Jude Classic (TPC Southwind) a few weeks later where his average driving distance was 291 yards, again on a similar course with bermuda grass greens, this weeks greens are champion bermuda and again similar total yardage.

Overall Austin has had a disappointing year by his standard, he's only had 3 top 10 finishes and has slipping down the official rankings from 31st (2 years ago) to 107th. He has missed his last 2 cuts and you'd probably class someone as a little insane by selection him. But he has the credentials, he has decent enough form at the course over the years. 66/1 (boylesports)

Brandt Snedeker. Put him up a few weeks ago for the TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas and pretty much doing the same again under those circumstances. Once again he finds himself playing a course for the first time, he handled Summerlin pretty well finishing T24. Here's the write up I had about him then "
Snedeker missed out on the Tour Championship by a few places, his record in the play-offs is not going to set the world alight but if you look at the overall facts (which I will mention below) it was actually very very good play.

He tied for 10 in the BMW Championships and that was after shooting
a 76 in the final round. He was T12 in the Barclays after shooting 75 in round 2.

Prior to his last 5 events he was missing cuts left right and centre so his overall play just before and during the play-offs can be read as being very good considering he was a player who couldn't buy a round before that"

Definitely worth following again. I know it's a track he has yet to encounter but he is a previous winner on Bermuda fairway golf courses having won the Wyndham Championships in 07. He tied for 5th in that event this year, this was after he had missed 3 cuts in 4 events, so that event kick-started his season again and since then he has performed well. Also this year's event at the Wyndham was plagued with rain delays so something similar to what they might expect this week. 25/1 (ladbrokes)

3 main bets for this so are

W Austin 66/1 €10 win
B Snedeker 25/1 €30 win

Nathan Green 125/1 €25 win (previous winner this year but since then seems to have taken it easy, and may do so again this week, but has showed signs of winning form in last 2 events by shooting 3 66's and 6 of 8 rounds in the 60's. T25 in this last year - serious dark-horse and he is a massive price)

Others of interest who are worth a small wager include:

W Simpson 50/1
J.J. Henry 66/1
Jason Gore 100/1

Will post up my thoughts on the Asian Tour and World Match-Play later this evening.

As always, all the best to everyone else having a selection, feel free to post your thoughts :cool:

PGA Tour event cancelled this week.

Bets of €95 returned.

Total layout on the thread = €241

and total layout for this week = €55.

In_tuition

In_tuition wrote: »

World Match-Play

Ross Fisher - 3rd place earlier in the season in the Accenture World Match-Play, has progressed since then, back in the groove after a short period off and plays Villegas, Milka-Singh and Westwood.

Ross Fisher 14/1 €10 win.

Fisher is World Match-Play Champion

fintonie

n1 mr well done:)

C.O.Y.B.I.B

Came across this thread by accident on Thurs and liked you assessment of Ross Fishers chances , so threw a few quid on . Cheers

In_tuition

mscull wrote: »

Came across this thread by accident on Thurs and liked you assessment of Ross Fishers chances , so threw a few quid on . Cheers

nice one.

markhiggins

well done sir...great call, keep up the good work

In_tuition

Total layout on the thread is €91 (includes profit) with just the 1 winner so far after hitting the woodwork on several occasions.

Ok onto this weeks event in China which has a 78-player stong field, 15 of which are in the top 20 of the world official rankings. 3 previous champions of this event play, Yang, Mickelson & Garcia, the latter 2 by way of a play-off.

You could class this tournament as a case of survival of the fittest. It's been a long season for many and the contingent who played last week in the World Match-Play must be crying out for a break. But most of them have an important reason to stay focused and play to the top of their game - The Race to Dubai.

Tiger Woods is fresh, no doubt as eager as ever and goes in seach of his 17th World Golf Championship victory.

But I don't post these previews to post up a 6/4 favourite (opposed Woods in favour of Yang in the USPGA when Woods looked unstoppable) so once again I'll pass on Woods even though he looks the likely winner.

First up is Sean O'Hair who has gone from 59th in the official world rankings, 1 year ago, to now being 13th. Phenomenal year which seen him victorious at Quail Hollow in April, with Tiger Woods 2 shots behind, Mickelson 3 shots behind and US Open champion Glover 1 shot behind.

Five-weeks previously, at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, O'Hair threw away a 5-shot lead on the final day to be pipped on the final hole by Woods so for him to come out a few weeks later and take care of Woods it shows he had no fear whatsoever of the great man. And as we know there isn't many players who get the better of Tiger Woods.

Since then O'Hair's form was a bit sketchy through the season, but once the Fed-Ex Cup Play-Offs kicked in he found a new lease of life, after missing the cut in the opening event, The Barclays, he T8 in the Deutsche Bank, he was 4th in the BMW Championship and 3rd in the Tour Championship (Mickelson shot -5 on the final round to win it from Woods).

Overall he finished 5th in the Fed-Ex Cup.

Following this he played The President's Cup where he beat Ernie Els 6 & 4 in the their singles match and Els was electrifying the previous day so O'Hair's victory can be classed top quality.

This is his first time in the event

Sean O'Hair 40/1 (William Hill & Stan James) €20 win.

I put up Nathan Green last week and going to do so again this week. Last week's advice on him was " previous winner this year but since then seems to have taken it easy, and may do so again this week, but has showed signs of winning form in last 2 events by shooting 3 66's and 6 of 8 rounds in the 60's ".

On from this he tied 18th on his sole start in this tournament two-years ago after opening with a 73 and closing with a 78. The Australian will be gearing up for his home tournament next week ( Australian Masters - which Woods plays by the way) so it's possible we could see him in amongst the leaders come Sunday.

Nathan Green 200/1 - (bet365) €5 win (prob double on betfair)

Others worth a bet include: €5 each

Pat Perez 125/1 (boylesports) - T13 in most recent start Frys.com Open shooting 4 rounds in the 60's - form very very sketchy prior to that, latest performance shows great improvement so.

Nick Watney 80/1 (boylesports) - fantastic early season form, sketchy from them on and mixed form in fed-ex cup play-off's - missed cut on latest start - spends all of his offseason on putting - take a chance on him as he encounters this course for the first time.

Total layout for the event is €35.

*Had total layout of €70 (€50 on O'Hair/€10 on Green) but decided to cut my overall stake in half.

Bets above are what I have placed.

As always all the best to everyone else having a selection - feel free to post up your thoughts :cool:

fintonie

cheers once again for your input,

as for giving my thoughts I would need to go some to your level of knowledge,

but I will work on it and because of this thread I will follow golf a lot closer so hopefully in the months to come I can do some swatting up and will be able to hold a convo with you. (you might say I am a 24 hcp at this type of thing)

In_tuition

fintonie wrote: »

cheers once again for your input,

as for giving my thoughts I would need to go some to your level of knowledge,

but I will work on it and because of this thread I will follow golf a lot closer so hopefully in the months to come I can do some swatting up and will be able to hold a convo with you. (you might say I am a 24 hcp at this type of thing)

Thanks mate.

Don't worry about your level of knowledge and posting it on here - I appreciate everyones input and I am sure others will too.

As I said it's open for everyone, if you deem someone to be worthy of a bet then by all means make a case for them.

I'm glad it helps you out, purely the reason I post up my thoughts.

All the best.

boccy23

Agree with the Sean O'Hair pick. His superb win at Quail Hollow earlier this season came at the end of another hot streak, [13-mc-2-10 were his form figs] and he looks just the sort of player who will take to this track.

€20 each way @ 28/1 on PP

Also going to chance Rory McIlroy. His current form figures are T3rd-T7th-T3rd-T2nd-T30th-T5th, which speak for themselves.
4th GIR, 6th total driving and 1st stroke average, the course should suit him.
Although this is his event debut he's shown in his short career so far that he can quickly learn new courses so it's not a big worry.

€10 each way @ 22/1 on PP

And finally Peter Hanson who has top-notch current form with form figures in his last 4 starts since the Mercedes-Benz Championship of T3rd-T16th-T4th-T8th. Likes it here, finishing T19th-T33rd-T3rd on his previous 3 visits. So worth a punt.

€10 each way @ 55/1 on PP

In_tuition

Best of luck boccy23 :cool:

heavyballs

i think it's Lee Westwood's chance to shine,should have won here in 2008 and with a long overdue win a couple of weeks ago he's getting my €25,

A New earth

Yes Peter Hanson & Simon Dyson

In_tuition

1st Round update:

Green +7
O'Hair +2

Perez -4 and Watney leader -8 (was -9 till he made his first bogey on his last hole) and he leads by 2 shots. *Woods -5

In_tuition

2nd Round update:

O'Hair +1
Green +12

Watney -10 (leader with Woods)
Perez -7

In_tuition

3rd Round Update:

Mickelson leader on -14.

Watney on -12 along with Woods. Should be a great final-day 3-ball.

Here's hoping Watney can get the putter firing again. Made a fantastic eagle on this 54th hole to secure a place in the final group and go 2 shots behind Mickelson :cool:

In_tuition

Woods finds himself 6 off the lead after 8 holes :eek:

Watney holding steady at -13. Whole lost of players though scoring very low today. Woods +4 thru 8 holes

In_tuition

Unfortunately hit the woodwork again this week. Watney was right in the mix even in the early stages of the back 9 but an aggressive 2nd shot into a par 5 resulted in him being wet and in turn dropping a shot at a vital point in the round - prior to that nothing seemed to drop right for him but he held steady and patient. Closed his round with 2 birdies but it was too late eventually finishing 5th on -13.

Perez was other best finisher T10 on -10.

At 80/1 and 125/1 respectively, they gave a great account of themselves and that's all you can ask when placing a bet.

Nathan Green (200/1) opened up with a 79 and a 77, his 3rd round seen him shoot 72 (which was a decent score that day) and in his final round he carded 9 birdies on his way to shooting a 65 (only 3 players shot better). Not saying that Green's bet was justified in anyway but I think he showed great ambition having made such a dreadful start, you could say he had nothing to lose but I know a lot of players who would have thrown in the towel there and continued on a downward spiral. Going to give him another chance in this weeks Australian Masters.

Well done boccy23 on the McIlroy e/w selection. Little profit to take into this week.

Will post up my selections for this week later on.

:cool:

boccy23

In_tuition wrote: »

Unfortunately hit the woodwork again this week. Watney was right in the mix even in the early stages of the back 9 but an aggressive 2nd shot into a par 5 resulted in him being wet and in turn dropping a shot at a vital point in the round - prior to that nothing seemed to drop right for him but he held steady and patient. Closed his round with 2 birdies but it was too late eventually finishing 5th on -13.

Perez was other best finisher T10 on -10.

At 80/1 and 125/1 respectively, they gave a great account of themselves and that's all you can ask when placing a bet.

Nathan Green (200/1) opened up with a 79 and a 77, his 3rd round seen him shoot 72 (which was a decent score that day) and in his final round he carded 9 birdies on his way to shooting a 65 (only 3 players shot better). Not saying that Green's bet was justified in anyway but I think he showed great ambition having made such a dreadful start, you could say he had nothing to lose but I know a lot of players who would have thrown in the towel there and continued on a downward spiral. Going to give him another chance in this weeks Australian Masters.

Well done boccy23 on the McIlroy e/w selection. Little profit to take into this week.

Will post up my selections for this week later on.

:cool:

Yeah. More or less covered myself. Went to bed after Saturday thinking it was going to be a losing effort, but that was some golf by McIlroy. If only it had come earlier in the week......

In_tuition

The Race to Dubai continues this week with a trip to Hong Kong. Lin Wen-Tang secured victory last year after a play-off with Rory McIlroy & Francesco Molinari.

The latter two were in fine form last week in China, McIlroy finishing 4th on -14 (-9 on final day equalling the course-record) and Molinari -10 (1st in driving accuracy and one of the top in greens-in-regulation). I'd favour Molinari between the two as he has the added experience around here, he shot 4 rounds in the 60's the previous year, the year prior to that (07season) he was T8 on -10.

You'd expect them both to challenge once again this week but both are inconsistent with the putter so I think it's worth siding against both this week.

My main selection for this week is Oliver Wilson. Like the above two that I mentioned his putter (of late) in unpredictable. He played fantastic and carded 16 pars on his final round in Shanghai so instead of finished the event on level par it could of been oh so different. It's fair to say that he hasn't been at his best in recent weeks, in my opinion he is capable of being in the top 10 in world golf and in the next year or two he will be. In order to reach that feat he has to win tournaments.

In 05 he finished T25 in this event, opening with a round of 75 and closing with a round of 76, in between those he shot back-to-back 64's. That's a hard task for any player. He is a more accomplished player now than he was then. Last year he returned to tie for 6th, having shot 2 66's and a 65 in the opening 3 rounds, a fustrating final round of 71 seen him fall just short of victory.

Wilson was 3rd for green-in-regulation in this event last year and 6th in putting for those green-in-regulation. His driving accuracy was well above average too.

Anyone can tell that McIlroy's final-round performance last weekend was sensational but if you take into consideration how Wilson played in his round it wasn't much difference other than McIlroy holed his putts whereby Wilson didn't. He seriously could have shot -9/10 under.

Oliver Wilson 33/1 (ladbrokes) €40 win

Mikko Ilonen 90/1 (boylesports) €5 win

Will post up my thoughts on the PGA Tour event and balance in the coming days.

All the best to everyone else having a selection, as always feel free to post up your thoughts :cool:

In_tuition

Total layout on the thread including profit is €171.

fintonie

keer er lit fella keep er lit and the best of luck with your selections

elshambo

In_tuition wrote: »

Total layout on the thread including profit is €171.

total layout?
what do you mean?

total losses thus far?

elshambo

In_tuition wrote: »

Oliver Wilson 33/1 (ladbrokes) €40 win

Mikko Ilonen 90/1 (boylesports) €5 win

Will post up my thoughts on the PGA Tour event and balance in the coming days.

All the best to everyone else having a selection, as always feel free to post up your thoughts :cool:

not a pop, just questions:)


Why win bets?

33/1 with dodgy putter, if you fancy him should it not be e/w

as for a 90/1, ew surely?

+would it be better if you posted a points tipping system instead of a Euro one

as 40 might be change to you and the rent to someone else

where if you said
1 pt or 4 pts
or eg 8 pts if 5 was base bet,

people could set the level of the bet to suit them,
as is; does 40 mean he is a really strong fancy or just money you found in your socks:)

good luck with the thread/bets btw

In_tuition

elshambo wrote: »

not a pop, just questions:)


Why win bets? More profit over time on outright winning selections

33/1 with dodgy putter, if you fancy him should it not be e/w as above

as for a 90/1, ew surely? same again (If was having e/w bets I would be chopping my win stake in half, in this instance €2.50 e/w, from a personal point of view I don't see this as being a profitable way to bet on golf - week in week out players who finish in the each-way category mostly tie for them 3-4-5-6 fold, so in turn you actually lose out.

I know I lose out when my player does not win but I would rather stake €5 on the outright win for the much greater profit. It's proven with some of my results that this is best method. Take YE Yang for instance I had €10 win on him at 175/1 for the USPGA, victory meant €1750. Chop my stake €5 e/w I win €1090 (roughly) €660 difference

Had M Googin at 400/1 to win the Open, similar circumstances, €10 win, joint leader with 7 holes to play. If I had €5 e/w, happy days if he is placed, however he tied for 5th with 2 other players - headbanger if you had him selected e/w. I know I would rather have lost my €10 with the huge possibility of netting €4000.

So you can see this is how I place my bets, always with the intention to make the most maximum profit that I can and I have found over the years that win bets are the best option.

Most people would not cut their bets, if they intended on having 10, then they would select 10 e/w, and in turn creating more loss when the selection in unplaced which is rather the case with most golf bets week after week.

It's a difficult sport to bet on unless you study hard, that's something I do and as much as I want to win with my golf bets and profit over time the last thing I want is have a deep hole in my pocket and win bets prevent that from happening and in turn creating greater profit when I have a winning selection.

I set aside €150 each week to have bets. The brunt of that money usually goes on golf and football. If I win, fantastic, if I lose so well and good. I can't exactly afford to lose €150 every week but it's not disastrous if I do. But I make decent profit my golf bets. I think I've had 6 winners this year ranging from 175/1, 40/1, couple of 20/1 and a host of selection who were either leading at the half-way stage or bang in contention in the final day.

+would it be better if you posted a points tipping system instead of a Euro one

This isn't such a tipping thread, I'm posting up my thoughts and stating how much I am having on. The only reason I began to mention the total layout on the thread is because I was asked by a poster to do so, and out of respect for others who read the thread I decided to do that. No one has had an issue of me posting my stakes and I don't see it as a problem either.

as 40 might be change to you and the rent to someone else

I never mention once what people should have on a selection, once again it's not a tipping thread. People are wise to know their limits on gambling and I am sure they don't give a toss what I have on.

where if you said
1 pt or 4 pts
or eg 8 pts if 5 was base bet,

people could set the level of the bet to suit them,
as is; does 40 mean he is a really strong fancy or just money you found in your socks:)

It doesn't really suggest I fancy anyone stronger sometimes I will place €20 on 150/1 shot and have 2 other selections who are priced around the 40/1 I will have €5, purely because I will think that the golfer is overpriced and I want to take advantage of the price.

With regards to having €40 on Wilson this week, I think his price is well overpriced, as I do with McIlroy, thought McIlroy would be 6/1 instead the books have him at 9/1 roughly. Should be worth a bet but I think Wilson is a better proposition at his odds of 33/1 and with his course form so thats where my money will lie instead.

Another reason I didn't mention (mainly because I didn't want to make excuses) but last week Wilson was extremely tired, he had feck all sleep prior to the event and during it. He feels great at the moment and has a spring in his step going to a venue that he loves. An added reason for having him as my selection.

I cut my O'Hair bet last week from €50 to €20 a day before the event so I have saved that extra money and it's been staked on Wilson this week.

Hope that answers things for you.

Thanks for the wishes :cool:

good luck with the thread/bets btw

Reply in red.

fintonie

just for meself its alot easier with the odds 33/1 people can then make up there mind how much to play or if they want to do it EW,

as for the point system telling how strong the selection is, I think the information supplied is plenty for anyone to decide.

In_tuition

PGA Tour heads to Disney this week for the final PGA Tour event of the season. There is two courses, the magnolia course and the palm course. One round in played on the palm course - the tournament is a birdie fest. The winning score will be in the region of -25 to -28. The first two rounds are played as a pro-am.

You need to select a player who is capable of making a lot of birdies (obviously). 11 of the last 16 winners all made the most birdies that week.

I mention it sometimes but select players who perform well on bermudagrass. Distance off the tee will be another factor this week, there has been little if no rain in recent weeks so the course is as dry as it can be, in turn the ball will travel a lot further.

There is 1 player who fits this category exceptionally well, Ricky Fowler. Move over Rory McIlroy, this kid is explosive. He belts it off the tee, his putting is sensational. Young, eager and hoping for a top-3 finish that will take him into the top 125 and secure his tour card for next season without a trip to qualifying school.

Beaten in a play-off in the Frys.com Open after shooting a low score he fits the bill perfectly this week. He is a fantastic young lad who is the hottest property in golf.

Ricky Fowler 25/1 €25 win

Best of luck with your selections :cool:

elshambo

in_tuition

If you dont mind me asking:

I used to take the golf betting lark pretty serious a few years ago
drifted away

going to get back into it fairly seriously next year

apart from the pga and pgaeuropean websites, what other info sources do you use/rec?

I used to own an old copy of elliot's golf form book
I know he has stopped publishing it


Is their anything like that about now?

Cheers!

In_tuition

elshambo wrote: »

in_tuition

If you dont mind me asking:

I do

I used to own an old copy of elliot's golf form book
I know he has stopped publishing it


Is their anything like that about now?

I've no idea, I don't think a book can relay enough information.

I read probably 100 different articles each week which keep me up-to-date with the world of golf on and off the course.

Following players websites or even their tweets is a decent way of getting some added information for yourself.

I consider a lot of factors before making a selection each week. I use one source and one source only to finally gather the information I need and if you want to know what it is I will post it up at the beginning of the 2010 schedule (which is only weeks away)