In_tuition's weekly golf selection

tiptap

I fancy e/w
Daniel Chopra
and
Alex Cejka ...both at 150/1

In_tuition

Just 2 selections for me this week.

Michael Sim finished his 2009 Nationwide Tour season 1st on the money list, 2nd in driving accuracy, 5th greens-in-regulation, 1st in putting and 3rd for birdies. He was a 3-time-winner on tour in 2009.

Added to this Sim finished T-18 in the US Open, where he was T-15 in putting and 13th in fairways hit.

This is his first time in the event but giving how easy the courses play and how confident Sim has become (has his eyes firmly set on major success) this could be a walk in the park one of the rising stars in world golf.

John Senden finished the 2009 PGA Tour season 1st in par 5 performance, carding -142 in 100 rounds of golf combine that stat with 1st for greens-in-regulation on the 09 PGA Tour season and you have one explosive performer.

This will be his 9th start in the event, he has recorded 3 top 10 finishes, T-9 (2009), T-5 (2006) & T-6 (2005). I fully expect him to win this.

Michael Sim 40/1 (ladbrokes/boylesports/powers) €20 win

John Senden 33/1 (william hill) €25 win

1 further bet this week:

Oliver Wilson 66/1 (Abu Dhabi) €10 win

Followed him close in the back-end of 2009, his putting was very weak and I didn't expect him to feature much in 2010. He is Ryder Cup potential and has the ability to move within the worlds top 25. Has reported himself that the putter is firing so 66/1 looks juicy. Beautiful golf player with an abundance of talent, if that putter works in the coming months he could easily fire himself to the top of race to dubai.

All the best to everyone else having a selection in these events :cool:

heavyballs

In_tuition wrote: »

Just 2 selections for me this week.

Michael Sim finished his 2009 Nationwide Tour season 1st on the money list, 2nd in driving accuracy, 5th greens-in-regulation, 1st in putting and 3rd for birdies. He was a 3-time-winner on tour in 2009.

Added to this Sim finished T-18 in the US Open, where he was T-15 in putting and 13th in fairways hit.

This is his first time in the event but giving how easy the courses play and how confident Sim has become (has his eyes firmly set on major success) this could be a walk in the park one of the rising stars in world golf.

John Senden finished the 2009 PGA Tour season 1st in par 5 performance, carding -142 in 100 rounds of golf combine that stat with 1st for greens-in-regulation on the 09 PGA Tour season and you have one explosive performer.

This will be his 9th start in the event, he has recorded 3 top 10 finishes, T-9 (2009), T-5 (2006) & T-6 (2005). I fully expect him to win this.

Michael Sim 40/1 (ladbrokes/boylesports/powers) €20 win

John Senden 33/1 (william hill) €25 win

1 further bet this week:

Oliver Wilson 66/1 (Abu Dhabi) €10 win

Followed him close in the back-end of 2009, his putting was very weak and I didn't expect him to feature much in 2010. He is Ryder Cup potential and has the ability to move within the worlds top 25. Has reported himself that the putter is firing so 66/1 looks juicy. Beautiful golf player with an abundance of talent, if that putter works in the coming months he could easily fire himself to the top of race to dubai.

All the best to everyone else having a selection in these events :cool:

huge price for Wilson,
i backed Strelman,not with much confidence it has to be said
i also backed Jason Dufner

in dubai,Rory to win ,Peter Hansen e/w

In_tuition

Good luck mate.

SEORG

My first selection is Ricardo Gonzalez, this is for trading as he doesn't have a bad record here. Finished T35th, T17th & T4th in the last 4 years missing the cut in 2006. He had three T20 finishes in Sept - Oct so it's worth a small punt.

Another for trading is Miguel Angel Jimenez, finished 2009 well with a top 10 and a top 20 finish in November. Has a half decent record here 5th in 2006 and 2nd in 2007.

I'm going to go with Stenson also, even with his form up and down recently I can't ignore his record in the desert and this competition.

Hope you don't mind me putting these up.

In_tuition

SEORG wrote: »

Hope you don't mind me putting these up.

Not at all.

Thanks for the contribution.

Best of luck with your selections

In_tuition

4 selections worth €3 each...

Done this last season in 1 event and got a good run for the money..

These are 4 players with potential and their odds do not reflect their talent..

Mikko Ilonen 260 (betfair)
Martin Erlandsson 420
Matteo Manassero 260
Graeme Storm 175/1 (bet365)

In__tuition

No idea of the email I used for the previous account so set up a new one.

Added Mike Weir to my selections..€25 @ 16/1

For anyone doubting it's me, lol, I mentioned my Weir selection here yesterday

fintonie

In__tuition wrote: »

No idea of the email I used for the previous account so set up a new one.

Added Mike Weir to my selections..

For anyone doubting it's me, lol, I mentioned my Weir selection here yesterday

no problem sir you should not doubt the faith we have in you,

your views are great reading

In__tuition

fintonie wrote: »

no problem sir you should not doubt the faith we have in you,

your views are great reading

Thank you!

Arazi1

Weir is in a nice position - at least in a good challenging position.
Are you considering backing anyone else to in effect Hedge your position?
Good luck

Arazi1

Nice Eagle there from Steelman to get him back within shooting distance.
good selection

Arazi1

heavyballs wrote: »

one outsider i think could win this year is Kevin Streelman,he makes a lot of birdies but throws in a few birdies most of the time
He can go low,has been in contention before and impressed me although didn't win
I might stick a few quid e/w,

kudos to Heavy balls Steelman trying hard for you and to In_Tuition who just had weir produce a chip in for eagle..

Keep it up.

In__tuition

Splish-splash double-bogey on 14 cost him, kick in teeth, responded well though but way too much to do after that.

Gotta a decent run in what proved to be a tough betting contest.

But still no profit in a handful of events so have to study hard in the next couple of days

In__tuition

Sorry readers but it's going to be a little shorter and sweeter this week as I'm fairly busy at the moment..

This event takes place at Torrey Pines over 2 courses (North & South). The first 2 rounds are split over both courses and following the cut, the final 2 rounds will take place at the SC (South Course).

The event has been held here since 1968 and was formerly the Buick Invitational and San Diego Open.

The SC plays over a whopping 7560+yards..(although this time round the SC will play about 300-400yards shorter)
The NC shorter - a little under 6900yards.

Driving the ball will be a the best attribute this week, look for someone who is good on those stats.

Another great attribute to have is scrambling. Pencil those who can get it up and down into your equation.

Look for someone with ties to California, 24 of the 57 winners of this event have either been born, raised, gone to school or live in California

Ignore the rookies, their last win was in 1991.

Year-in-year-out the the North course usually plays a couple of strokes easier so for anyone intending on a first round leader bet, take this into consideration.

Players to take note of:

Charles Howell III - 3 top 10 finishes in 7 starts here. T-5 in the recent Sony Open.

Ryuji Imada - 2nd here in 2008.

Kevin Sutherland - should of won this event on numerous occasions, consistent player who is coming off the back of an excellent showing at the Bob Hope.

Lucas Glover - T-3 here last year. It's a US Open course and this boy is the current holder of that crown.

Carl Petterson - T-6 in the US Open here in 2008. Started 2010 with a bang finishing tied 5th in the Sony Open.

Phil Mickelson - 9 top 10 finished in 19 starts here which includes 3 wins. Ended 2009 in sensational form, if fully tuned - he will win.

My selection and further useful information in the coming days..

All the best to anyone having a bet in this event :cool:

Arazi1

Best of luck as always I have a lot of respect for what you choose. Do you mind me asking for those of us out there who are looking to do some research on the tournament, where or what is the best source of data out there?
Where do you use for extracting statistics, past winners (and finishing positions) for each player in each event for many years etc..

Good luck with the tips and hopefully all the work that Phil has put in to get to grips with the new grooves will mean he is sharp and ready for action.

In__tuition

1 main selection for me this week.

Phil Mickelson will take some stopping, however, he has under-performed on a few occasions around here and with it being absent from competitive golf for the past couple of months may prove tough to overcome so in preference I have am having a bet on what I deem to be the best bet of the year so far...

Ernie Els has dedicated himself to the PGA Tour for the entire season and I think his decision will pay off earlier than he probably expects..He is coming off a decent showing at the Sony Open where he tied 6th, he was off slightly with his putting but the cobwebs will be firmly blown away by now and he is tackling a course that he has fair form on.

Els has only played this event once, in 2005, where he finished T-6 (-10). Els is also a two-time US Open winner and considering that this course plays similar to those of that standard combine that with a finish of T-14 when the US Open was held here (2-years-ago).

The rough around Torrey Pines is tough and Els finished the 09 season pretty high in the stats for scrambling from the thick stuff. He's high on the equation too with regards to final round scoring, expect a massive show from Els this time round.

Ernie Els 25/1 (boylesports) €50 win

heviballs

heavyballs wrote: »

huge price for Wilson,
i backed Strelman,not with much confidence it has to be said
i also backed Jason Dufner

in dubai,Rory to win ,Peter Hansen e/w

well i thought i might even have the 1-2 last week untill Hansen shat his pants and Rory (as seems the norm) couldn't hole a decent putt,that's golf for ya,and a new rule for me,don't back against a German,they're nerveless it seems.

This week i'm just pickin 2 from the start
In the u.s i'm on [EMAIL="B.Snedeker@35,i"]B.Snedeker@35,i[/EMAIL] think he will win this year,seems to be coming back to form,

In Qatar i'm on Ross McGowan @50,he is a cracking player and the only reason i'm on him is because i've promised myself i'm doing him e/w every week

Btw before you let me know the prices i got are c*ap i do them in my local who pay 6 places e/w in all touneys

In__tuition

I'm really stuck for time this week, it's rare when I don't make time weekly to study my golf for the week but this week is one of those. Stenson, obviously, will prove hard to beat. I Haven't put much thought into these but they are in my yearly short-list and it so happens that all their odds are favourable this time round so..

In favour of the above (betting on Stenson) I plan for 3-4 €10 outrights on several players..

3/4 of the big-priced outsiders last week made the cut.

I'm going with Oliver Wilson again, it's a stubborn pick, I don't doubt his putting will let him down but cast back to the matchplay event in Spain at the back end of last year, he putter exceptionally for a couple of rounds, he's saying he is back to that level but has yet to convince us all. Some decent course form - 120's is still too big for me - €10 win

Soren Kjeldsen - 1st for greens-in-reg in 2007, T-10 at the HSBC a couple of months ago, once again nearly topping the gir stats. Had his best putting year in 2009. Silly odds 160's - €10 win

Thomas Levet - Back from the wildermess in 2009 to record some decent results including a win (his 5th on tour), better season that previous, remember he had the class to finish 5th on the money list in 2004. I believe we will see big things once again from the Frenchman in 2010, at the ridiculous price he is worth a tipple - 360's - €5 win

All prices with betfair..

may add 1 more selection after the cut..

All the best guys :cool:

heviballs

Going to throw a weird 1 in here,
I see they're betting on the New Zealand Open(i know i have a gamblin prob)
I'm going to stick a fiver e'w on Gavin Coles @66/1
The course will play very short and with the amount of water features and hazards accurate play will be rewarded,enter Coles,my 9 year old hits the ball as far as him but i like this little lad,

In__tuition

I've started a thread on OLGB in the blogs section here

I'd doubt I'll post more information than I do here but if anyone spends time on the forums on that site then you know you can catch me on there too in future.

I'm also on Twitter for anyone who loves a tweet

Collie D

Regarding your stubborn pick on Wilson I am thinking of doing the same (stubborn pick rather than Wilson). I put a lot of time and effort into my golf selections last year and ended up with a string of places and not a single win. Very disheartening so was thinking of not wasting the effort and just picking one or two guys and sticking with them til they win. Foolish in your opinion?

Tended to bet mostly on PGA Tour but watching the Bob Hope made me realise how hard it is to pick a winner on those piss easy Yank courses where virtually anyone can get a round in the low 60s.

Have a feeling that this could be Rory Mc's big year but at around 16/1 he is not the most attractive betting proposition but as a friend of mine said the other day if he does live up to the hype you might bnite someone's arm off for 16/1 in a few years.

A confused, disillusioned golf punter looking for opinions/advice/hugs

In__tuition

Collie D wrote: »

Regarding your stubborn pick on Wilson I am thinking of doing the same (stubborn pick rather than Wilson). I put a lot of time and effort into my golf selections last year and ended up with a string of places and not a single win. Very disheartening so was thinking of not wasting the effort and just picking one or two guys and sticking with them til they win. Foolish in your opinion?

Tended to bet mostly on PGA Tour but watching the Bob Hope made me realise how hard it is to pick a winner on those piss easy Yank courses where virtually anyone can get a round in the low 60s.

Have a feeling that this could be Rory Mc's big year but at around 16/1 he is not the most attractive betting proposition but as a friend of mine said the other day if he does live up to the hype you might bnite someone's arm off for 16/1 in a few years.

A confused, disillusioned golf punter looking for opinions/advice/hugs

You'll be quite aware, by now, that it's difficult to nail down a winner on the golf.

For many recreational golf punters, they simply look at the betting and pick a name that springs to mind. Not saying this is a bad thing but the point I am trying to make is that once you put the effort in on studying your selections there isn't really much more you can achieve (and nothing you are doing wrong) - other than the obvious (a few winners throughout the year).

Is your new thought process foolish? I'm not going to refer to you as foolish but your fustration is obviously on overload, understandable when you hit the woodwork on occasions but why change things? No doubt a couple of bad shots cost you winning an event. That's all it's been, it's not your lack of judgement...

As bettors the only sensible approach we can take is to take whatever information we can gain and use it to make a selection we deem is worth our money, you don't need to have a bet in every event and you certainly do not need to back 4-5 players in every event. When the year progresses and players are reaching their potential it's possible then that a select few will take the eye..we cannot control what happens in real-time obviously and although it's unpleasant to feel hard done by, you should really take courage and satisfaction that your 'intuition' was right giving the info you had to work with.

I can't give you much advice on picking winners only thing I can offer is the above and that being not to feel to bad about 'missing out'.

For me, there is no better feeling (okay maybe a few) than knowing you put the effort into your selection and it being a winning one. It's an awesome feeling.

Now I didn't compile this thread to offer my selections to people, if people want to bet on my selections that is fine, initially and now my main aim of this is to make people aware that you can go from hand-picking a selection off the betting sheet to actually studying for yourself and putting your money on someone who you deem is worthy of your money. (there's been a couple of comments from the beginning of how people hadn't the knowledge to study their own selections but reading the thread they felt it encouraged them to do so in the future (fintonie springs to mind) )

My e/w feeling on golf is well documented on this thread purely because I don't like placing extra bets, they all add up. You need to spend as little as possible (within reason) to try and gain the most you possible can from a golf bet, because as you are aware, a winning one comes around 'once in a blue moon'.

Overall:

Don't pick a golfer and follow him weekly.

There is lots of stats out there to choose from and a lot of players play differently on different types of greens, different types of courses and in different times of the year. Some people play for and have more reasons than others (eg: some people have goals of reaching a specific spot in the official rankings for instance cause they have slipped) spotting all this information together should give you the satisfaction in placing a bet.

Apart from the PGA Tour for the odd stat, I use one site and one site only, and it helps me gain all the information I need on an up-and-coming event. It's the best way to approach an event from a betting perspective.

Hope this helps you Collie D

In__tuition

In__tuition wrote: »

3/4 of the big-priced outsiders last week made the cut.

I'm going with Oliver Wilson again, it's a stubborn pick, I don't doubt his putting will let him down but cast back to the matchplay event in Spain at the back end of last year, he putter exceptionally for a couple of rounds, he's saying he is back to that level but has yet to convince us all. Some decent course form - 120's is still too big for me - €10 win

Soren Kjeldsen - 1st for greens-in-reg in 2007, T-10 at the HSBC a couple of months ago, once again nearly topping the gir stats. Had his best putting year in 2009. Silly odds 160's - €10 win

Thomas Levet - Back from the wildermess in 2009 to record some decent results including a win (his 5th on tour), better season that previous, remember he had the class to finish 5th on the money list in 2004. I believe we will see big things once again from the Frenchman in 2010, at the ridiculous price he is worth a tipple - 360's - €5 win

Nice start to the Qatar Masters from a selection perspective..

Oliver Wilson (-5) leads the field after round 1.

Collie D

Cheers for the reply, intuition. Was very insightful and helpful. Think I was pretty knackered last night and couldn't face an hour of trawling through stats ;o) Made it sound as if I don't enjoy golf betting. Originally it was for a bit of fun getting four days interest out of a small stake but with so many "hitting the post" as you put it, the want of money over-rode the enjoyment.

Thanks

In__tuition

In__tuition wrote: »

1 main selection for me this week.

Phil Mickelson will take some stopping, however, he has under-performed on a few occasions around here and with it being absent from competitive golf for the past couple of months may prove tough to overcome so in preference I have am having a bet on what I deem to be the best bet of the year so far...

Ernie Els has dedicated himself to the PGA Tour for the entire season and I think his decision will pay off earlier than he probably expects..He is coming off a decent showing at the Sony Open where he tied 6th, he was off slightly with his putting but the cobwebs will be firmly blown away by now and he is tackling a course that he has fair form on.

Els has only played this event once, in 2005, where he finished T-6 (-10). Els is also a two-time US Open winner and considering that this course plays similar to those of that standard combine that with a finish of T-14 when the US Open was held here (2-years-ago).

The rough around Torrey Pines is tough and Els finished the 09 season pretty high in the stats for scrambling from the thick stuff. He's high on the equation too with regards to final round scoring, expect a massive show from Els this time round.

Ernie Els 25/1 (boylesports) €50 win

-2 from Ernie after R1.

Was very impressed with his putting again today, the HSBC champions event where he was 1st for putts in gir and 3rd in total putts has really recaptured his spark and possibly appetite for success and considering he tackles the easier North Course tomorrow, his prospects for the weekend are very encouraging

fintonie

In__tuition wrote: »

-2 from Ernie after R1.

Was very impressed with his putting again today, the HSBC champions event where he was 1st for putts in gir and 3rd in total putts has really recaptured his spark and possibly appetite for success and considering he tackles the easier North Course tomorrow, his prospects for the weekend are very encouraging

HI In__tuition no bets yet waiting till next month I got 200 to spend but gona do it your way,

I have won based on as you said picking from the field prices but not on the performance so I am going to wait,

i will do four 50 bets, but it will be based on your taughts and other info,

if I lose so be it ,

but its the start of stats rather than pot luck,

once again cheers for the info (and input)

In__tuition

fintonie wrote: »

HI In__tuition no bets yet waiting till next month I got 200 to spend but gona do it your way,

I have won based on as you said picking from the field prices but not on the performance so I am going to wait,

i will do four 50 bets, but it will be based on your taughts and other info,

if I lose so be it ,

but its the start of stats rather than pot luck,

once again cheers for the info (and input)

Thank you my friend.

I am not going to tell you how to bet, but giving a bank of 200, I think it's wise to minimise your bets to a maximum of €5-€10 or whatever alternative currency you use.

As you will be aware a lot of my prices range from 40-300/1, rome wasn't built in a day and all that...;)

Test the water with a few smaller bets and hopefully a couple of winners will come your way, if that's the case you'll soon find yourself with a large stash of cash for a decent bankroll for the future.

I don't advise spending x amount of money on bets, if you have 200 that you are willing to gamble then use it wisely and sustain it over a period, once again not all your eggs in one basket..;)

If you have the time in the coming months (and I do too) I have no problem outlining the sources I use, spending time on golf is a huge bonus when making a selection, as I have stated previously on here I make time each and every day to read 100's of articles relating to the world of professional golf.

It's my hobby.

It's a long process and I didn't obtain my knowledge overnight, personally I believe there is far more people out there with superior knowledge than me, of professional golf. I don't wake up each day and try to achieve that status, my main point of saying this is, that just because you don't know as much as x person next to you that doesn't mean that you can't assess a golf tournament with some guidance and make a selection you deem worth.

That what it all boils down to, it's the appreciation of having a bet and knowing your thought went into it, feck it if you are always wrong, at least you tried.

Overall I believe that's what betting (notice I don't say gambling - gambling is the opposite, that being hand-picking etc) should be about, making your own judgement and placing your own money (which you can afford) on a selection.

You've posted on here since I begun and I hope each weekly preview gives you a little more knowledge of what you have to look for each week in a golfer.

Thanks again, appreciate the kind comments.

In__tuition

In__tuition wrote: »

I'm really stuck for time this week, it's rare when I don't make time weekly to study my golf for the week but this week is one of those. Stenson, obviously, will prove hard to beat. I Haven't put much thought into these but they are in my yearly short-list and it so happens that all their odds are favourable this time round so..

In favour of the above (betting on Stenson) I plan for 3-4 €10 outrights on several players..

3/4 of the big-priced outsiders last week made the cut.

I'm going with Oliver Wilson again, it's a stubborn pick, I don't doubt his putting will let him down but cast back to the matchplay event in Spain at the back end of last year, he putter exceptionally for a couple of rounds, he's saying he is back to that level but has yet to convince us all. Some decent course form - 120's is still too big for me - €10 win

Soren Kjeldsen - 1st for greens-in-reg in 2007, T-10 at the HSBC a couple of months ago, once again nearly topping the gir stats. Had his best putting year in 2009. Silly odds 160's - €10 win

Thomas Levet - Back from the wildermess in 2009 to record some decent results including a win (his 5th on tour), better season that previous, remember he had the class to finish 5th on the money list in 2004. I believe we will see big things once again from the Frenchman in 2010, at the ridiculous price he is worth a tipple - 360's - €5 win

All prices with betfair..

may add 1 more selection after the cut..

All the best guys :cool:

Nice to once again have 3 of the big prices make the cut.

Kjeldsen & Levet both make the cut, Wilson (-7) lies 2 shots off 1st place.

Nicely poised going into the final 2 rounds.

In__tuition

In__tuition wrote: »

Nice to once again have 3 of the big prices make the cut.

Kjeldsen & Levet both make the cut, Wilson (-7) lies 2 shots off 1st place.

Nicely poised going into the final 2 rounds.

Final finishing position of T-5 for Oliver Wilson. Was 1 shot off the lead in the front 9, the tough stretch midway through the round proved too much. Finished with 3 birdies in a row. Will continue to follow him in the coming weeks.