Green Party will pull out if members vote down NAMA/Programme for Government

Biggins

ynotdu wrote: »

Well Bigs it's true that Govts collapse and the Sky does not drop in!

How many has Italy and Japan had since ww2?

but as an American politician was caught on microphone saying "Its all about perception" (abroad)

Just on the Italy and Japan point there are many dynamics to the reasons why they are so unstable.
(Trade, Tax, Raw Materials, etc...)
Maybe a whole discussion topic for another day?
I certainly wouldn't start stating we are going down the same road as them just yet (nor do I think you are inferring it either).

It is a great degree "all about perception" but then we have had major change of government before.
If as a lot are saying (including myself sometimes admittedly) that FF and FG are nearly the same - I don't expect to see radical changes over night!

Life will go on...

ynotdu

Americas input at farmleigh think tank today about NAMA;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RpSv3HjpEw

Riskymove

bangersandmash wrote: »

I'm not sure I follow. According to the DoF figures, NAMA will pay €54bn for loans backed by property they value at €47bn. So even by their own admission they aren't paying the market rate as they define it?

As for know one really knowing, well if I was in doubt about making a major financial transaction I would err on the side of caution. Considering the risk here, would a cautious conservative valuation not be appropriate?

well exactly...they value the assets at €47bn but we don't really know how they came to that figure but it is an estimate. the actual market value if they were being sold could be much lower

If it were (as it should be) a "liquidation sale" of banks and developers assets, they'd take whatever the hell they could get for it.

yes as above, but the last thing we'd want NAMA to do surely is to have a firesale of the assets?

thebman

Riskymove wrote: »

the only way to know the curretn market value is to sell the property and there is little selling or buyin going on at the moment

the point is that the current market value is only being estimated and its only opinion that its lower than Lenihan's figures...but no one really knows

lol you can still estimate the value based on what is selling ATM. There is some selling/buying going on or you could do it on rental value markets and work it off that if you have to.

To assume everything is fine and we are at the bottom seems a bit unrealistic to me.

If nobody is willing to buy, its most likely because they feel we aren't at the bottom of the market and they aren't happy to buy at the prices on offer ATM.

SkepticOne

turgon wrote: »

This might give the grassroots an opportunity to pull the plug on Government. Given the amount of discontent one hears about amongst the grassroots Im surprised more hasnt been made of this comment, which was given on radio earlier this afternoon. Could this be the end, or will the green party realize they are going nowhere and stay in for the long run?

A vote against NAMA was always going to be a vote to bring down the Government. Gormley is trying to spin it so that it looks like it is a vote against power for the Greens, imo.

Nottoosure

I heard ex CEO of the Bank of Ireland, Michael Siddon (not too sure how the surname is spelt), on Cooper this evening, he was venting about the size of the Social Welfare bill ballooning to 5-6 million (picking on lone parents particularly, some of which are widows). 54 billion to bail out banks & developers. A million seconds is (approx) 13 days, a billion seconds is (approx) 31 years, by 54 that's a lot of Euro & I'm scared for my family, very, very scared.

Back in the 80's we had recession, but jobs became the issue, I don't see any of our glorious leaders doing anything about job creation, on the other hand, I see loads of dodgy behaviour coming out of our "Job Creation" service called Fás.

Tell me the date & time of the revolution, I'll be there.

thebman

lol at a man that should not have a job anymore saying people who have lost theirs should be getting less than they are.

I'm pretty sure the closest thing to revolution is on tomorrow @ 1.

bmaxi

Riskymove wrote: »

yes as above, but the last thing we'd want NAMA to do surely is to have a firesale of the assets?

Indeed, but if there is to be a fire sale, rather before we pay an inflated price for them than after.
I don't trust FF to act in the public interest in this, their record of acting thus is non-existent, why should this time be any different.

coco0981

thebman wrote: »

lol at a man that should not have a job anymore saying people who have lost theirs should be getting less than they are.

I'm pretty sure the closest thing to revolution is on tomorrow @ 1.

To be fair Michael Soden quit BOI in 2004 over an entirely different controversy so he was gone before the housing madness got into full swing

nacho libre

i think this is obviously just a ploy to coerce the grassroot members into voting for nama by winning last minute concession from Fianna Fail. so the green minister can look good in the eyes of the public and maintain power. i think isthatso is right when he says FG secretly want Nama to pass as they don't want the headache of trying to create an alternative proposal with Labour. They know this is the best hope of getting credit flowing... but obviously for public consumption they have to be seen to oppose.

i'm just waiting for the day we'll see FF people finding their voice again on boards.ie, where they'll crowing about how Brian Lenihan acted like a father to the nation in 2009 by taking the hard decisions that were needed to stave off an economic nuclear winter.

bSlick

Why should we believe anything FF says about the value of the properties anyway? I mean seriously, we are talking about the corruption party here, a party that has shown countless times before that it is prepared to straight out lie to the electorate when it suits them and a party that has paid way over the odds for every single major project they've been involved in previously. Imo these toxic assets are very likely worth way less than the 47bn figure given and I also believe that in the end, alot more than 54bn will be going to the banks/developers, as that is the way FF have always operated in the past.

Nothing they say can be trusted at this stage.

bSlick

If Gormley was in opposition you can guarantee he'd be foaming at the mouth at the prospect of NAMA and would be mouthing off non-stop about how its a bailout for the banks/deveopers. I have never seen anything like the hypocrisy of John Gormley. Imo he has one last chance to salvage what is left of his and the Greens reputation and pull the plug on this incompetent, corrupt shower of pricks that are about sign off on an unprecedented transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich.

rcecil

Oh please come back to doing what you do best. OPPOSITION! There is growing support for a strong coalition including the non timid Greens, Socialists, Independents and Sinn Fein. We wouldn't be in this mess if we had real grass roots work being done.

is_that_so

Idbatterim wrote: »

if the greens had pulled out of government over nama, there would have to be a re election, where the greens would have probably won far more seats... given the fact they could have righted the wrongs and chose not to, they need never ever knock on my door looking for a vote. This thing is far bigger than any political figure or party, for the greater good, the plug should and could have been pulled by the greens and the whole things could have been ended once and for all! what a disgusting failure / let down!

The Greens as an entity are not really a political party as FF/FG/Labour are, more a collection of activists. As such they are driven by their "principles" and the policies that come from those principles. It is all well and good to claim democratic principles but odd that the only thing they are submitting to their members is NAMA. EU treaties like Lisbon and the programme for government were always going be debated.

So they are faced with a dilemma. As it stands the party are looking at almost complete annihilation. Taking the plunge on NAMA will not really change that. Even with a possible election premium for pulling down NAMA there is far too much they can be tarred with , even with the credit for it.

Accepting NAMA with amendments would mean that they would be in a better position to address the plan for government and have their policies implemented. IMO this is far more important to them and an opportunity to have a longer-lasting legacy on our future. In short I think the Green grassroots will be angry but ultimately the possibility of continuing in Govt, even if it's only for another few months will "reluctantly" sway them and they'll go back to trying to wag the dog of FF.

This piece from Noel Whelan is interesting commentary on the "democracy of the Greens". Much of it I agree with although I think the Green "NAMA debate" has more to do with horse trading on the plan for government.

Why are elected Dáil members abrogating responsibility for Nama to party members?

THE GREEN Party is playing a dangerous game. Whatever view one takes of the merits or otherwise of Nama, it must be unnerving that the fate of the most significant legislative proposal ever to come before Dáil Éireann is being left in the hands of a few hundred Green Party members.
...

Full story

thebman

I'd be surprised if the greens voted for NAMA, it basically spells death for their party as they'll never get a vote again from many people ever again. It also is the only way they can really demonstrate they have not just become baby FF.

Then there is NAMA itself which is just a crap idea IMHO.

Greens need to look at what happened to the PD's, they are next to disappear IMO if they go along with NAMA.

GSF

I'm not really sure the bankers get the enormity of what they have caused. Speaking to one recently they seem to think that NAMA will allow them to go back to "business as usual". That seems to be implicit in NAMA too: for it to be sucessful we need another hike in house prices. How that will be achieved while taxing disposable income at higher levels, cutting salaries, increasing ECB rates and higher unemployment is anybody's guess.

thebman

GSF wrote: »

I'm not really sure the bankers get the enormity of what they have caused. Speaking to one recently they seem to think that NAMA will allow them to go back to "business as usual". That seems to be implicit in NAMA too: for it to be sucessful we need another hike in house prices. How that will be achieved while taxing disposable income at higher levels, cutting salaries, increasing ECB rates and higher unemployment is anybody's guess.

Lol I don't think they are that naive. They know what they are at. They are playing the government who are the naive ones that think that is what will occur with NAMA.

Nobody knows better than the bankers that a return to a housing bubble will not occur, at least not without massive population growth most likely from immigration on a level not likely to occur seeing as Ireland has lost its reputation as a place to go for most people I imagine and there are few jobs to be had in our real core industries ATM.

is_that_so

thebman wrote: »

I'd be surprised if the greens voted for NAMA, it basically spells death for their party as they'll never get a vote again from many people ever again. It also is the only way they can really demonstrate they have not just become baby FF.

Then there is NAMA itself which is just a crap idea IMHO.

Greens need to look at what happened to the PD's, they are next to disappear IMO if they go along with NAMA.

The PDs ceased to mean anything and most of their policies became FF policies or sounded like FG policies. Like the Greens they did have the power to implement those policies and power for a small party is very attractive.
The legislation for NAMA is not set in stone. The big issue most people have is the risk to the taxpayer. There will be three weeks to address that with amendments.

So from a Green point of view they can try get as many concessions on NAMA as possible or IMO more importantly on the plan for government and live to fight another day or they can walk and get to meet their doom sooner. Even if they aren't wiped out they'll be opposition anyway.
Meanwhile it'll be January and there'll be threads here imploring Labour to walk from the new NAMA plan.

breadandjam

If the Greens decide to vote no and Gormley decides to pull out it will be the end of the Greens as a viable force in Irish Politics. They may decide to stay in and vote with the government not because they believe in Nama but because they think they can do more good in Government and change FF policies and this might stand to them in the next election.
The problem is that every time they support FF they lose even more crediblity with the public and it also makes it harder for them to say no to FF in the future and easier for FF to ignore them.

edanto

The point above about how the Greens would be speaking about NAMA if they were in opposition is very well made and bears thinking about.

If they look at an issue a particular way, what changes when they are in power? Why would they consider if differently? I think they're suffering from shock personally, and haven't relaxed in two years, and because of that will support NAMA at Cabinet.

I'm glad that the membership have an opportunity to influence the actions of the government - I just wish I knew a few GP members, so I could try and influence them!

Darragh29

maynooth_rules wrote: »

I have everything crossed but i don't hold much faith. The Greens have proven themselves to be completly spineless, and most of their members are probably aware that the party will become a pointless force after the next election. I voted for Mary White of the Greens last time and i am still absolutly disgusted with myself for it.

I voted for Paul Gogarty, never again... I doubt the Green's will pull out because if they do, then its a general election and they will be worse off than the PD's after it... As much as I'd love to see them doing it, turkeys typically don't cheer in Christmas!

Souljacker

I think this will be the first real test for the greens to prove they're a democratic party.

When the green party members vote down the Nama, programme for government I hope the leadership will do the decent thing.

I think people would have a lot more respect for them if they do.

This is government is going to fall It's just a matter of wheater it's the greens or a few rebal FF backbenchers who get the credit. If the greens don't get the credit then they'll real trouble come election time.

Trotter

Despite saying never again, I'd vote Green if they showed the guts to walk at this stage. To be honest I think there'll be deals done and it'll scrape through.

SeanW

Trotter wrote: »

Despite saying never again, I'd vote Green if they showed the guts to walk at this stage. To be honest I think there'll be deals done and it'll scrape through.

+1

edanto

This thread inspired me to try and contact some Greens, so I got together all the email addresses I could find of Green Councillors/ministers etc (PM me with your email address if you'd like a copy) and sent off something to try and make them cancel NAMA.

A day later, I've gotten one reply and well maybe one or two of the others have read it. Here's the email, if you agree with it, please send it on to any Green members that you know!

Dear Green Party members,

Congratulations on the concessions that you did secure from FF on some areas of NAMA, and thank you for braving the difficult conditions that we are in.

I am still unconvinced of the accuracy of the valuation, nor the effectiveness of the oversight mechanisms in place. I consider both to be wanting, and weighted in favour of the people that created this problem in the first place.

If the problem is a culture of debt and overspending, then the solution cannot be the same as the problem. For a more workable solution, I refer you to Constantin's NAMA trust. If you can spare 25 minutes, he will explain his idea in 3 videos, at this link - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOknRQ1E7-o&feature=related Dan Boyle had been in the room at the start of the meeting, but I believe he had to leave before Constantin's presentation. These videos explain why we cannot yet proceed with NAMA as proposed.

The group that pay for NAMA is the taxpayer, yet the taxpayer is barely mentioned in the legislation and is certainly not protected adequately.

The video above was recorded before the most recent publication of the loan valuations and amounts to be paid. Last Thursday, Ronan Lyons produced a measured critique of the amounts announced, and I feel that his analysis shows that we are overpaying based on very weak valuations. http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/09/17/do-the-nama-figures-add-up-a-broader-and-more-realistic-assessment-of-long-term-economic-value/

From the link: "Amazingly, it is on this latter commercial segment of the market, worth from what I can see about €8bn – and only this €8bn alone – that is the subject of any form of yield analysis
......
But it must be remembered that NAMA’s entire estimation of long-term value hinges on rents holding constant in this subset (Dublin) of a subset (commercial projects) of a subset (projects underway) of a subset (Ireland) of the total loan book. If Dublin was soaking up half of all commercial projects, this would suggest that NAMA is basing its entire long-term economic value on perhaps 5% of its proposed loan book."


In brief, the solution that FF have proposed is clearly still weighted in favour of those that support them.

I am a supporter of the Green Party, a voter and campaigner, and have a good understanding of the need for a sustainable economy from now on. It does not look like FF will ever concede enough in this respect.

Would it not be better for you to achieve the breaking of the link between the Dail and the developers rather than token concessions such as a carbon tax that people will resent? The only way to break this link is to vote for no confidence in the government, if that is what the members ask for.

The Green Party is less than 10% of this government and can only have that much influence. Future governments can be Greener.

Thank you for reading this.

edanto


and the reply -

Hello edanto,
Thank you for your email, measured as it is.
It makes a fair relief from some of the correspondence I have been receiving.
You seem to have grasped that the greens can only exert so much influence on the ammendments to the legislation.
I accept that too.
And I no more than you am keenly aware that FF will continue to represent the same vested interests that have brought us to this point.
What remains for us to decide is if the concessions gained in the redrafting will be green and fair enough to merit our continued support.
Right now, it looks very precarious.
I too am happy with the concessions gained. But of course they don't go far enough.
The coming weeks will tell what the ministers can haggle out on behalf of the rest of us.......
Thank you for your time and involvement with this and for keeping me informed.
Yours,
A Green Councillor

I don't think that a government of 90% Fianna Fail will ever concede enough to the Greens and that because of that the NAMA legislation will never be good enough. So, out of government I say.

Firefly Fan

The Greens are FF's lapdog.

The Greens won't admit it (in order to save face) but they are - and we know it - they know it and FF know it.

I expect them to cave like the spinless, useless double-crossing wimps they are.

thebman

yeah well if they do vote for NAMA they are finished.

You could argue they are finished now but there are many people that would have respect for them taking the stand and would consider voting for them again if they stopped NAMA.

getcover

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't Gormley and Ryan framing the ballot as a vote to reject NAMA, instead of a vote to support Nama?
This would mean that more than 66% of Greens would have to reject NAMA.
That is a very different vote to a ballot where more than 66% of Greens would have to support NAMA.
You could have 65% of the Greens rejecting NAMA but it means the party could still support it.
Maybe I've picked this up wrong, but I'm sure I heard that this was the way they were going to set it up...

thebman

getcover wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't Gormley and Ryan framing the ballot as a vote to reject NAMA, instead of a vote to support Nama?
This would mean that more than 66% of Greens would have to reject NAMA.
That is a very different vote to a ballot where more than 66% of Greens would have to support NAMA.
You could have 65% of the Greens rejecting NAMA but it means the party could still support it.
Maybe I've picked this up wrong, but I'm sure I heard that this was the way they were going to set it up...

Wouldn't be surprising if they did. They are FF's after all ... oh wait! :eek:

Greens need to show that it is just Ryan and Gormley that have become part of FF, kick them out for next election and they'll lose a lot less votes IMHO.

edanto

Anyone have any news from the Greens? Are there any Green members on here?