Will Lisbon Pass?

The Volt

Not looking for reasons for/against voting yes/no here. Just looking for informed opinions about why people think it will/wont pass this time.

I severely hope it will but I genuinely don't know whether it will or not. I think it'll be closer than last time and hopefully yes will sneak it.

minidazzler

I hope it will, but I have very little faith in the Irish people. The poorer area's will believe the lies that Sinn Fein and Coir are spreading.

Captain Furball

minidazzler
Are you referring to wealth? Or intelligence?
I think it will pass because people are "scared".........

meglome

Captain Furball wrote: »

I think it will pass because people are "scared".........

Did you mind when people were scared and tricked into voting No?



I hope it will pass but the level of No side lying is ramping up again.

Scofflaw

Stay on topic, please.

moderately,
Scofflaw

Colpriz

My fear is this time it will be passed on the fear of the current ecconomic crisis. People voted No due to lack of information the last time before. FF did a bad job of relaying it to the public, now they are saying we have to vote Yes again because if we dont we are more screwed. We are about to be screwed by NAMA..it doesnt seem like there is ever a good time to vote on this in the curent turmoil???

Kama

I think it'll pass, enough Don't Know's will move to Yes, and a few No 'lites'. Working-class areas will probably still have similar No stats, maybe higher given that the eloquent arguments made here aren't falling on their ears, being asked twice, and general protest at Cowen et al, while the ABC1's will have better Yes returns than last time round.

My guesstimate is squeaks through Yes, but it all comes down to those precious Don't Know voters.

ei.sdraob

I honestly dont know

its gonna be close

simply because alot of people either dont know or care to know about something that has consequences for them eitherway


but at least the YES side and myself are better at demolishing the crap thrown by the NO side this time around, and theres less of them posters with nothing but ugly politician faces on them (Labour im looking at yee)

turgon

I have my doubts and in fact last week I was about to put money on a No win but for losing my Visa card. Two reasons:

1. People voting at anger with the government.
2. People believing Coir posters.

In the first case one cant really talk to these people. They have gotten it into their heads that a No vote will be bad for the government and somehow good for themselves. Its a classic case of shooting oneself in the foot. These people also arent willing to discuss the actual Treaty, so I think the cant be convinced otherwise.

I have disappointing story about number 2. One of my friends, not politically minded, was all for voting Yes. He was constantly talking up the EU and slamming Sinn Fein etc. I left the country for a month and when I came back the Coir posters were up. I asked him did he see the €1.84 poster, in a tone that I was expecting him to share in how ridiculous they were. Instead he quickly informed me he was strongly voting No, because he believed that Dunnes Stores were going to pay him €1.84 after Lisbon. These posters have effected people, and for many voters posters is all they will see because they dont watch/read the news or pamphlets.

Sam Vimes

turgon wrote: »

Instead he quickly informed me he was strongly voting No, because he believed that Dunnes Stores were going to pay him €1.84 after Lisbon. These posters have effected people, and for many voters posters is all they will see because they dont watch/read the news or pamphlets.

Did you not correct him, possibly employing some kind of blunt object in the process?

ei.sdraob

Sam Vimes wrote: »

Did you not correct him, possibly employing some kind of blunt object in the process?

maybe he deserves 1.84 / hour

i kid i kid

your not only one with "horror" stories


one of my friends insisted last time around that EU is like USSR and still at it :eek: i feel like slamming her across head with a history book but I just byte my tongue and smile cause im a good guy

ShooterSF

I done a wee bit of canvassing with a local group of fellow no thinkers but you never know if people really agree or are just being polite. If I thought the people I was talking to were the average I'd be somewhat confident.
I have been glad to see the polls on boards (which was very accurate last time) leaning towards a no vote and even more so the poll that showed discussion here was persuading a few former yes voters to vote no.
It is a sad fact though that it will probably come down to whether people buy into lies being peddled by some of the no side or the scaremongering peddled by some of the yes side.

PCPhoto

I didnt vote the last time and I'm leaning towards a NO vote - mainly due to the fact that we already voted no and they throw it back again (ok with slight changes).

if we vote yes - why does the voting stop ? .....why ?

best of my knowledge ... its actually against the Irish Constitution if we vote yes - my source is the relevant section of the constitution which was used to stop the Tipperary Farmer's action in the High Court recently - it basically says that under the Irish Constitution we have the right to change our minds on any decision and if we vote yes - that decision is removed from us...we wont be allowed to turn around next year and say actually ...we changed our minds...we dont want Lisbon ...we'd be told shut up its already here and nothing you can do about it.

I also dont like the way that the Government is telling us we MUST vote yes, I agree that the "NO" campaign is misleading .... I do expect minimum wage to drop...but then again prices and cost of living has already dropped, and minimum wage might drop anyway ....as the wages paid to some are ridiculous (I'm self employed and its a combination of willingness to lower my price and increase my availability while keeping the level of quality high... has kept me in business - we all have to make changes in a recession.)

People fear the unknown.....people who were not properly informed last time voted NO, have they been informed of the changes - I dont know..... have the YES people gottan annoyed by the Government and their actions.

Ps. I'm not affiliated with any political organisation and have limited knowledge of politics - but I cant see any advantages of voting yes.

ei.sdraob

PCPhoto wrote: »

I didnt vote the last time and I'm leaning towards a NO vote - mainly due to the fact that we already voted no and they throw it back again (ok with slight changes).

if we vote yes - why does the voting stop ? .....why ?

best of my knowledge ... its actually against the Irish Constitution if we vote yes - my source is the relevant section of the constitution which was used to stop the Tipperary Farmer's action in the High Court recently - it basically says that under the Irish Constitution we have the right to change our minds on any decision and if we vote yes - that decision is removed from us...we wont be allowed to turn around next year and say actually ...we changed our minds...we dont want Lisbon ...we'd be told shut up its already here and nothing you can do about it.

I also dont like the way that the Government is telling us we MUST vote yes, I agree that the "NO" campaign is misleading .... I do expect minimum wage to drop...but then again prices and cost of living has already dropped, and minimum wage might drop anyway ....as the wages paid to some are ridiculous (I'm self employed and its a combination of willingness to lower my price and increase my availability while keeping the level of quality high... has kept me in business - we all have to make changes in a recession.)

People fear the unknown.....people who were not properly informed last time voted NO, have they been informed of the changes - I dont know..... have the YES people gottan annoyed by the Government and their actions.

Ps. I'm not affiliated with any political organisation and have limited knowledge of politics - but I cant see any advantages of voting yes.

sigh not again

Sam Vimes

ShooterSF wrote: »

It is a sad fact though that it will probably come down to whether people buy into lies being peddled by some of the no side or the scaremongering peddled by some of the yes side.

You mean like the lie in your sig that Lisbon will be put to another referendum if we vote no?

Sam Vimes

PCPhoto wrote: »

I didnt vote the last time and I'm leaning towards a NO vote - mainly due to the fact that we already voted no and they throw it back again (ok with slight changes).

Significant numbers of people voted no because of the issues of taxation, neutrality, abortion, conscription and the commissioner. The commissioner issue has been rectified, it just didn't require a change to the treaty and the other issues have been guaranteed as not now nor ever having been related to Lisbon in any way and these guarantees are legally binding, despite what liars on the no side tell you. The people who voted no on those issues now no longer have a reason to vote no.

Add to that the fact that the biggest reason for rejection by far was lack of understanding. People have now had two years to learn about it and there is a wealth of information out there so they no longer have that reason to vote no

All of those reasons for rejection are no longer valid even though the treaty hasn't changed so why not give the people who voted no for those reasons an opportunity to change their minds?

PCPhoto wrote: »

if we vote yes - why does the voting stop ? .....why ?

best of my knowledge ... its actually against the Irish Constitution if we vote yes - my source is the relevant section of the constitution which was used to stop the Tipperary Farmer's action in the High Court recently - it basically says that under the Irish Constitution we have the right to change our minds on any decision and if we vote yes - that decision is removed from us...we wont be allowed to turn around next year and say actually ...we changed our minds...we dont want Lisbon ...we'd be told shut up its already here and nothing you can do about it.

We can have a referendum to remove our acceptance of Lisbon from our constitutution. The problem at that point is that we will be operating under Nice rules but the rest of the EU will be under Lisbon rules. We can't force these countries to go backwards. Effectively the EU we will be a member of won't exist anymore. Some arrangement probably could be come to but no one know what that arrangement might be, probably something like the arrangement between the EU and Switzerland.

A better way would be if we put it through and we find that certain parts of the treaty are having a negative effect we can negotiate for those parts of the treaty to be changed. Lisbon actually makes it easier to make small changes like that.

PCPhoto wrote: »

I also dont like the way that the Government is telling us we MUST vote yes, I agree that the "NO" campaign is misleading

Yes the government are idiots but this is not their treaty

PCPhoto wrote: »

.... I do expect minimum wage to drop...but then again prices and cost of living has already dropped, and minimum wage might drop anyway ....as the wages paid to some are ridiculous (I'm self employed and its a combination of willingness to lower my price and increase my availability while keeping the level of quality high... has kept me in business - we all have to make changes in a recession.)

The €1.84 minimum wage poster is a blatant lie and don't let anyone tell you otherwise

Euro_Kraut

I expect about 55% Yes off a 47% turnout.

The day of the vote we should have a prediction thread. See who's really got their finger on the pulse of the nation.

K-9

ShooterSF wrote: »

I done a wee bit of canvassing with a local group of fellow no thinkers but you never know if people really agree or are just being polite. If I thought the people I was talking to were the average I'd be somewhat confident.
I have been glad to see the polls on boards (which was very accurate last time) leaning towards a no vote and even more so the poll that showed discussion here was persuading a few former yes voters to vote no.
It is a sad fact though that it will probably come down to whether people buy into lies being peddled by some of the no side or the scaremongering peddled by some of the yes side.

I'd have my doubts about some of them Yes, turned No votes!

Encouraging for the Yes side, was the Don't know, voting Yes.

I think it could be close, but more confident in a Yes than I was a month ago.

ShooterSF

Sam Vimes wrote: »

You mean like the lie in your sig that Lisbon will be put to another referendum if we vote no?

I answered this yesterday in another thread. I don't want to go into it again and to be fair to the OP he specifically asked we stick to discussing the likelihood of the treaty passing.
(at the end of the day it is your opinion that another treaty won't happen but there is no reason for one not to)

ShooterSF

K-9 wrote: »

I'd have my doubts about some of them Yes, turned No votes!

Encouraging for the Yes side, was the Don't know, voting Yes.

I think it could be close, but more confident in a Yes than I was a month ago.

I suppose you can always doubt people sincerity in online polls but just hope they're honest. It's just as likely yes voters or no voters could have messed with it I guess.
To be honest I'm not AS confident this run as I was last time when I made a nice few quid from the no vote! I was certain of a no that time. This time I wouldnt be that shocked to see a yes vote.

SlimJ

Sam Vimes wrote: »

the biggest reason for rejection by far was lack of understanding.

I couldn't agree more, and now I have a question: Is anything else being voted on on that day?

My sense of the last vote was that folks were already going to the polls to vote in their local elections; while there, they voted "No" to this Lisbon thing they didn't understand.

Is this just a solo vote on Lisbon? If so, that might keep most of the "Undecided Reflexive No" vote at home.

bill_ashmount

Yes will win, despite the lies of the Yes campaign.

pieface_ie

Yes for jobs they say but where will all these jobs come from?

Martin 2

PCPhoto wrote: »

....
Ps. I'm not affiliated with any political organisation and have limited knowledge of politics - but I cant see any advantages of voting yes.

PCPhoto, I suppose it depends what you call an advantage, anyway here are 10 well thought out reasons to vote yes, link, based on the contents of the treaty, you may not agree with them but they are worth considering.
If you are agnostic to the contents of the treaty then maybe you could consider the economic consequences of a Yes or No vote, it's my considered opinion that a Yes is more likely to help the economy and a no more likely to damage it, I partially base this on the fact that the multinational sector and virtually all business organisations are supporting a yes, what's more in a recent survey of economists 91% felt that a yes would be better for the economy, link.
Don't get me wrong I'm not so naive as to believe that a yes is a panacea for all our economic ills but as I said before a Yes will likely help us and a No will likely hinder us.

Sam Vimes

ShooterSF wrote: »

(at the end of the day it is your opinion that another treaty won't happen but there is no reason for one not to)

No it's not my opinion. As Scofflaw says:

Scofflaw wrote: »

By the way, I'm not sure what "we'll just vote no again" means here. If we reject Lisbon again in October, that's it. The Treaty has a two-year lifespan, after which it goes back to the European Council

That is how it works. A different treaty might be put forward but that's a different matter entirely

Euro_Kraut

SlimJ wrote: »

I couldn't agree more, and now I have a question: Is anything else being voted on on that day?

My sense of the last vote was that folks were already going to the polls to vote in their local elections; while there, they voted "No" to this Lisbon thing they didn't understand.

Is this just a solo vote on Lisbon? If so, that might keep most of the "Undecided Reflexive No" vote at home.

It was a stand alone vote last year and will be again this year. I'm not sure how much an impact the local elections were in the voters mind. Is was held a good 10 months in advance of the locals.

Having said that some candidates (Labour were the most blatent as I recall) used the campagin to get their face on posters ahead the LE. At least this time candidates are largely decoupled from the treaty.

techdiver

I think it will pass this time, due mainly to the scaremongering going on from the yes campaign, which are tyring to place a link between the Lisbon Treaty and economic recovery, which is complete and utter crap.

To be balanced the No side are a shower of deluded gombeens. I really wish both sides could run a campaign based on real facts and reality and not flouting lies about what the implications of a yes or no vote would be.

It dismays me that either the assumed intelligence level or the actual intelligence level of this country has sunk below that of the US in terms of being bought over by sensationalism on both sides of this disgraceful campaign.

Sam Vimes

techdiver wrote: »

I think it will pass this time, due mainly to the scaremongering going on from the yes campaign, which are tyring to place a link between the Lisbon Treaty and economic recovery, which is complete and utter crap.

Can you tell me what Intel, Ryanair and IBEC have to gain from pretending that a yes vote to Lisbon will help the economy?

What about these people?
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0909/1224254135032.html

Mr Cowen said all the main business groupings and the Irish heads of several multi-national firms were “crystal clear” in their view that reluctance to endorse the treaty, together with the resulting perception that “we are somewhat a-la-carte in terms of our commitment to Europe”, would make it more difficult to attract and secure inward investment.

“Those who argue otherwise would do well to listen to the employers’ representative groups, to the exporters of Ireland, to the farmers’ representative groups and to the employers themselves.

“Those who have experience of pursuing and securing inward investment, developing and exploiting export markets, or growing and expanding businesses, are united in their view that rejecting Lisbon will cost jobs.”

ShooterSF

Sam Vimes wrote: »

No it's not my opinion. As Scofflaw says:


That is how it works. A different treaty might be put forward but that's a different matter entirely

OT- Yes and what stops it coming from the European council back to us again? Does it say they have to scrap it?

techdiver

Sam Vimes wrote: »

Can you tell me what Intel, Ryanair and IBEC have to gain from pretending that a yes vote to Lisbon will help the economy?

What about these people?
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0909/1224254135032.html

I really see no direct correlation between the Lisbon Treaty and employment prospects in Ireland.

The ridiculous "Yes in the city", posters are about as relevant. A NO vote doesn't remove us from the EU.

I'm glad you trust economic evaluation from a former minister for finance that displayed complete ineptitude regarding fiscal matters in Ireland during the so called boom years.

As my previous post stated, I am not for either side, I just want relevant facts about the treaty broadcast and the lies and scaremongering from both sides to stop.

PCPhoto

techdiver wrote: »

I really see no direct correlation between the Lisbon Treaty and employment prospects in Ireland.

The ridiculous "Yes in the city", posters are about as relevant. A NO vote doesn't remove us from the EU.

I'm glad you trust economic evaluation from a former minister for finance that displayed complete ineptitude regarding fiscal matters in Ireland during the so called boom years.

As my previous post stated, I am not for either side, I just want relevant facts about the treaty broadcast and the lies and scaremongering from both sides to stop.

totally agree with that.

I find the posters rubbish and have stopped reading them (as I said in a previous post I do expect the minimum wage to be dropped.... but I think that will happen regardless of result... and not a chance in hell it will drop to the proposed €1.84 .... if my understanding of the case laws are correct this will mean that companies will be allowed to employ workers from other EU countries and pay them their national wage - not really effecting me unless I work in that sector...and I dont...but these people wouldnt be able to financially survive in RIP-OFF Ireland earning that low a wage.)