former lurker's sports bets

formerlurker

I have been reading this forum for a while and watching with interest people's virtual banks and how they perform. I have decided this would be a fun way of keeping record of whether or not I actually beat the bookies over the long run (seems unlikely!) I'm far from an expert so I wouldn't advise anyone to be following me too much! It's mainly a bit of craic and as I said, a way to keep a record of whether i'm actually up/down long term which I always pledge to do but never bother.
I'm going to give myself a virtual bank of 1000 points. Most of my bets will be soccer though I will occasionally venture to other sports.
My first selection is a season long bet and it's on the Premier League handicap with paddy power. I'm going to place 50 points on Stoke City who are + 44 and currently priced up at 11-1. They have 7 points from 15 at present and have gotten two games against the big 4 (chelsea and l'pool) out of the way. Stoke finished last season with 45 points and have purchased solid enough players, Tuncay Sanli especially could be a gem for them, this time last year he was being linked with a move to Chelsea, he's a bit inconsistent but when on form could be a match winner. Robert Huth and Danny Collins will provide additional strength to the backline and both are solid players, despite the poor defensive record of Boro and Sunderland last year. I think Stoke have the capacity to gain an extra 8/9 points this year which would leave them 97/98 points in the handicap and make them very difficult to beat. The only team I would be very concerned about is Sunderland who are +38 and with the signings Bruce has made I can see them finishing on 50+ points, well up from last season where they ended with 36. But Stoke have 6 points on them in the handicap and I'm hoping that will be enough.

Paddy Power have a special where you pick 3 anytime goalscorers in 3 matches and you get guaranteed odds of 12-1. I thought this may offer good value as if you did all three in a normal treble, it would often only be 7s or so. However it could very well be a bet that seems good value but is actually very difficult to succeed with so this may be the only time I try this. I'm gonna have 10 points on this and I'm selecting Torres v West Ham, Rooney v Man City and Drogba v Spurs.

My final bet is a 40 points double on Newcastle at home to plymouth at 4-11 and Fulham away to Wolves at 9-5 (both are boyles prices) which is just over a 14-5 double. Newcastle have surprisingly adjusted well to life in the Championship and will be keen to bounce back from losing their unbeaten record midweek and should have far too much for bottom of the league plymouth. Roy hodgson has done an excellent job at fulham and they had a good victory last week coming from behind to beat Everton 2-1. I think Wolves are a limited enough team, they haven't started well at home losing to West Ham on the opening day and drawing against a weak Hull team so I expect Fulham to win and I think they're overpriced at 9-5.

Old bank 1000
New Bank 900

allthedoyles

Best of Luck - I watch this forum with interest too .......

But the bokkies always seem to win long term .

On any given weekend the '3 anytime goalscorers ' sounds a good bet

Juwwi

I also like the 3 goalscorers at 12/1.

I did ur 3 last week and tores let me down.

I also did a couple of handicaps at the start of the season..spurs and burnley.

formerlurker

Not a bad weekend thanks to rooney,torres and drogba. Disappointed that Stoke gave away a penalty in the last minute yesterday, they would have been three valuable points. Very disappointed with Fulham too, really expected better from them although I haven't seen the highlights yet.
Still a profit of 80points over the weekend brings me up to 1030 in the bank so I'll settle for that.

formerlurker

This weekends bets:
40 point treble
Sunderland to win v Wolves 3-4
Millwall to win v Leyton Orient 11-8
3.14-1 double
Sunderland have been strong at home this season and Wolves have been poor on their travels despite winning their first away fixture they have lost the last three and I think Sunderland should have too much class for them, although I also tipped against wolves last week and they beat fulham so hoping there won't be a repeat!
Millwall have had a poor start to the season but are a much better team than they have been showing, they unluckily missed out on promotion last season and I think their good 3-1 win v Huddersfield last week who were in the top four before that will help them turn a corner. Orient are a very average team with just 6 points from 8 games so far.

Last week it was the 12-1 3 anytime goalscorers bet that put me in profit so I'm going to try it again this week and be more ambitious, picking 4 and hoping 3 will score or 4 for the total lottery!

10 points 12-1 (paddypower special)
Drogba Rooney Torres
10 points 12-1
Drogba Rooney Bent
10 points 12-1
Drogba Torres Bent
10 points 12-1
Torres Rooney Bent

The thing I like with these 4 is that all these are in good form and those 4 teams should win although Man United may find it tough enough at Stoke but Rooney is on fire for them so I just went for him ahead of Defoe and the other teams could quite possibly win by 2 or more.

Old Bank - 1030
New Bank - 950

formerlurker

Luckily Torres, Drogba and Bent got me out last week in profit bringing the bank up to 1080. I'm going to put 80 points on Man city to beat Villa away tomorrow night at 13-8 (boyles). With Adebayor and Ireland back I think City will have too much for Villa and they're great value at 13-8, and they're probably an even bigger price on betfair.

Old bank 1080
New Bank 1000