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Why Ireland NEEDS an EU bailout.
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You have to face facts:
The 40% tax take on new houses has dried up. There is no ready replacement for this.
Either we increase tax
Increase borrowings
reduce our expenditure to sustainable levels
(or all 3)
The gov was a willing participant in the propery boom because ot made so much money from it. It's allied to one private business only:
Property. All other private sectors are gettin shafted in order to compensate investors for the difference between their expected returns and actual returns.
It also flies in the face of the fastest possible housing crash in order to return value to prospective homeowners (aka taxpayers/employees)
If these people cannot own a cheap home - what then?
If they own an expensive home they NEED expensive wages.
Ireland actually NEEDS low wages in order to regain our lost competitiveness. The public service NEED low wages.
This loss of a strategy borders on some criminal injustice, traitorism or something. I mean, to smash a nations economy because of the developer class. That takes a fairly self obsessed canny creature.0 -
We need some common sense not a bailout.
We have spent into the next 20 years, we need to do the saving now. ( in the past we saved first and then we spent)
If the public service want to avoid cuts then let us have efficiencies. We also need some sense of repentance, It was civil servants that booked O'Donoughue's taxi, it was civil servants that were over seeing the banks.
Its the Nurses that threatened blue murder to get a short working week, but still work all of the hours only now they are on overtime.
Just remember that the tribunals were about getting planning permission, and so increasing the supply of housing. It is the planners who were too slow in allowing development that forced house buyers to buy jacked up prices based on scarcity of development land.
And do not forget the 20% of Dev land given over to social and affordable houses, this was simply a tax on those who were prepared to put a roof over their own heads.
We need to return to a low cost economy, it may not be very nice to contemplate our bar man working for Minimum wage, or the guy who collects the bins, but it seems ok if we are on holidays in Spain.
Many of the immigrants who live here and our own who go abroad live on far less than the minimum wage and send the remainder home.
Lets have the smart economy, but lets also have some type of manufacturing jobs for those who are not so smart or who want to work from the shoulders down. We need manufacturing jobs as a matter of common sense, they need not be smokey dangerous factories, but the country must have an ability to exploit productively all levels of education/ skills of its people.
Prices and labour costs have to be driven down. Or we will not have any jobs left in the export or tourism areas.
We should be using our idle labour on recovery projects that will lead to efficiencies in the future. New roads, rail lines, broadband etc.
Why can a contractor only employ a building worker at a ridiculous rate when the same worker on the dole can do nixers at €8 per hour. Whilst the state pays the interest on his mortgage.
Let the Mortgage company freeze repayments on his mortgage until things have recovered, so long as he works on a national recovery project and let him work on those at €400 per week.
We need money flowing in and around our economy not haemorraging out money that we are borrowing from abroad.
We should be exploiting our tourism facilities, Make them safe, and get foot fall.
Harmonize the Dole with the North and the rest of Europe. If people cannot live on this amount then give them non cash/ non transferable/ non exportable help.
Regulate the use of Western Union, (if money is legitimately earned and tax paid then fine send it out as a right, but if it is social welfare or nixer cash then it needs to be stopped) cash is pouring out of the country.
Hold the top vat rate but reduce the Vat on Labour and Services so that the legitimate operator who can reclaim vat on his imputs has an advantage over the cowboy,
Reduce costs, especially the hidden costs such as permit and license costs, Extend the life of safe pass cards and the like, as things stand all of these require new courses and more fees.
Give real incentives to develope new ideas, for example allow the new low road tax on old cars if the carbon emissions can be reduced, (even if this means a new engine0, more likely it would encourage adaption of older engines) it is preferrable to scrapping the car and buying from abroad a complete new car.
Allow a rebate/offset on vrt for exported cars, this would encourage the sale to abroad of our secondhand cars and would help stop this country filling up with junkers.
Most of all we need government and civil servants with Guts and imagination.0 -
Join Date:Posts: 30620
We need some common sense not a bailout.
We need realism- the public have no idea how bad the government finances are- and the government don't have the balls to tell them.We have spent into the next 20 years, we need to do the saving now. ( in the past we saved first and then we spent)
We're in debt to our necks- both publicly, but also privately- thats the big difference with the 1980s- in the 80s- the country was bankrupt- but private sector debt was actually very low.If the public service want to avoid cuts then let us have efficiencies. We also need some sense of repentance, It was civil servants that booked O'Donoughue's taxi, it was civil servants that were over seeing the banks.
Cuts are necessary- regardless of what anyone says. Two areas of expenditure account for almost 84% of total expenditure though- the social welfare and the health budgets. Its all well and good bleating about civil servants- but we don't actually have all that many of them (a total of just under 33,000- and projected to fall to 27,500 when the extended retirement scheme is taken into account). This is far and away the smallest civil service in the entire OECD. Civil servants may have booked O'Donoghue's taxi- but check again- they weren't overseeing the banks. Also if you check- you will find that a civil servant's job is defined as 'implementation of government policy'. The civil servants have been scapegoated very publicly in the media- for the simple reason they're not allowed to officially respond.Its the Nurses that threatened blue murder to get a short working week, but still work all of the hours only now they are on overtime.
Agreed. They protested in favour of the same working week as civil servants- until they discovered that civil servants actually worked 6 hours a week more than they were suggesting. Liam Doran of the INO backpedalled very rapidly- and decided to use teachers working hours as a model instead........Just remember that the tribunals were about getting planning permission, and so increasing the supply of housing. It is the planners who were too slow in allowing development that forced house buyers to buy jacked up prices based on scarcity of development land.
We've been debating this in the Accommodation and Property forum since 2002. Supply and demand had very little to do with prices being jacked up- excess cash chasing finite assets were more than sufficient to fan our bubble.And do not forget the 20% of Dev land given over to social and affordable houses, this was simply a tax on those who were prepared to put a roof over their own heads.
This measure was only introduced late in the game- and was never implemented at all in various council areas. In other councils- it was wholly twarthed. Allowing a cash donation in lieu was a stupid idea.We need to return to a low cost economy, it may not be very nice to contemplate our bar man working for Minimum wage, or the guy who collects the bins, but it seems ok if we are on holidays in Spain.
Its all well and good saying we need to return to a low cost economy. The fact of the matter is people's standards of living increased massively over the past 17 years, and the population at large are not willing to countenance a return to 'normality'. Unfortunately our politicians aren't willing to bite the bullet and do the necessaries.Many of the immigrants who live here and our own who go abroad live on far less than the minimum wage and send the remainder home.
True. I've been there and done that myself. Its all well and good as a short term measure- but its not a sustainable longterm practice- no-one does it indefinitely.Lets have the smart economy, but lets also have some type of manufacturing jobs for those who are not so smart or who want to work from the shoulders down. We need manufacturing jobs as a matter of common sense, they need not be smokey dangerous factories, but the country must have an ability to exploit productively all levels of education/ skills of its people.
Why do we need manufacturing jobs? We are a small open economy without the possibility of protecting manufacturing jobs- and competing against the lowest cost economies in the world. What you are suggesting is quite simply not feasible. We need jobs- but we don't need to compete with China/India/Singapore- as we seem intent on trying to do. As for productively exploiting all levels of education and skills of our people- a large problem is our people are improperly educated and skilled to exploit opportunities as they arise. Do you know we had over 13 times more archaelogy graduates in 2008 than we had in 1994? Thats just one example. What are these people supposed to do?Prices and labour costs have to be driven down. Or we will not have any jobs left in the export or tourism areas.
If you check- our export sector- primarily pharmaceuticals and chemicals, is actually doing remarkably well. We are competing by innovating- rather than by trying to commoditise our way. Our tourism sector is being slaughtered in the main by the Euro/Dollar exchange rate. Hotel prices have fallen by between 40 and 60% on average- there is remarkable value to be had out there. Our export and tourism sectors are some of the few bright lights in the economy.We should be using our idle labour on recovery projects that will lead to efficiencies in the future. New roads, rail lines, broadband etc.
Agreed.Why can a contractor only employ a building worker at a ridiculous rate when the same worker on the dole can do nixers at €8 per hour. Whilst the state pays the interest on his mortgage.
Agreed.Let the Mortgage company freeze repayments on his mortgage until things have recovered, so long as he works on a national recovery project and let him work on those at €400 per week.
Why should the mortgage company do this? They've borrowed the money to lend to the mortgage holder- and have to service this debt. The only way you could force them to do this- is by nationalising them.We need money flowing in and around our economy not haemorraging out money that we are borrowing from abroad.
Aka- we need to get the banks lending- but how? Their balance sheets are so impaired as a result of their bad debts- and their NAMA disposals will force them to raise an additional 12-14 billion just to retain their liquidity ratios- never mind have funds to lend. We are all gummed up.We should be exploiting our tourism facilities, Make them safe, and get foot fall.
I'm guessing you're referring to the tourist who fell from Skellig Mhichil during the week. Short of wrapping people in cotton wool and not letting them out the door- what do you want to do? We have cliffs, we have seas. People do stupid things. You cannot cater for every eventuality. We've already had to rescue over 200 Eastern European fishermen this year- from our Atlantic swells. We have over 8000 small islands- many of which are regularly visited by tourists. People do not like to accept responsibility for their own actions- they like to blame someone when something goes wrong. I do feel sorry for the American tourist who fell last week- and especially for his family- but I don't think the OPW were at fault. He visited a rugged, wind swept island, and did not take sufficient care. Simple as.Harmonize the Dole with the North and the rest of Europe. If people cannot live on this amount then give them non cash/ non transferable/ non exportable help.
Go for it.Regulate the use of Western Union, (if money is legitimately earned and tax paid then fine send it out as a right, but if it is social welfare or nixer cash then it needs to be stopped) cash is pouring out of the country.
Not feasible.Hold the top vat rate but reduce the Vat on Labour and Services so that the legitimate operator who can reclaim vat on his imputs has an advantage over the cowboy,
We have multiple VAT rates including an 11.5% rate on services. You're not suggesting anything new.Reduce costs, especially the hidden costs such as permit and license costs, Extend the life of safe pass cards and the like, as things stand all of these require new courses and more fees.
The reason there is a finite life on safe pass cards- and people are obliged to go for retraining- is they become complacent and start taking shortcuts. I hold a safe pass card- and go for regular recertification- I'm always surprised at how many little things I've totally gotten out of doing since the previous refresher.Give real incentives to develope new ideas, for example allow the new low road tax on old cars if the carbon emissions can be reduced, (even if this means a new engine0, more likely it would encourage adaption of older engines) it is preferrable to scrapping the car and buying from abroad a complete new car.
Not going to happen. Far better idea would be to abolish road tax and put a couple of pence on a litre of fuel. It would actually be an accurate tax on people's road usage then. Plough some of the income generated into C&E exercises to be coordinated with the NI authorities, and get smuggling under control. Benefits everyone.Allow a rebate/offset on vrt for exported cars, this would encourage the sale to abroad of our secondhand cars and would help stop this country filling up with junkers.
VRT is to be abolished within 5 years anyhow.Most of all we need government and civil servants with Guts and imagination.
Most of all we need people willing to call it as it really is- and a government willing to put the needs of Ireland ahead of the needs of Mary Doyle from Cahirciveen. Parochial politics are at the root of all that is wrong with this country.0 -
Yes but the government and their employees would be shopping in Ireland and spending their money domestically (hopefully) so that would boost private industry as well. Sorry but this kind of begrudgery attitude is just going to pull everyone down.
I always love that one. Give them more money to buy Irish-made cars, TVs, computers. Yes, I know, unhelpfully sarcastic, but you get my point. Ireland spends money on high-value consumer goods which are imported. It's one of the bigger problems here; no native industrial capacity.
That is why you are suggesting that countries such as Germany, with well-planned and developed native industrial capacity intended for export, should pay for the Irish focus on property, which can't be exported and as such is useless as the basis for an economy. And that is why you will never see anything more welcoming than a terse, Germanic 'Go f*ck yourself' when Brian Cowen goes to Berlin with his begging-bowl, like the last time he did it, earlier this year.As for French teachers working for 25% of what Irish ones do, I don't really know what to say about that other than what kind of eejits are French teachers?
Yeah, because we can afford the pay that our teachers get? We can't, so that probably covers that one. And in a few year's time, we'll get the pay-off - less teachers, which means less well-educated Irish graduates, making Ireland less competitive in the global market.
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Actually I think its because many people use the words "public sector" and "civil service" interchangeably.smccarrick wrote: »The civil servants have been scapegoated very publicly in the media- for the simple reason they're not allowed to officially respond.
This is just wrong in my opinion. Most of the top ten world exporters are first world countries, and they have no difficulty competing against China. It is not only feasable its essential, there are many markets where we could make a major impact in the near future.smccarrick wrote: »Why do we need manufacturing jobs? We are a small open economy without the possibility of protecting manufacturing jobs- and competing against the lowest cost economies in the world. What you are suggesting is quite simply not feasible.
Archaeology? I blame the Indiana Jones trilogy (and refuse to acknowledge the last movie). Every problem is an opportunity in disguise, and I'm sure that archaeology graduates might be able to organise into companies to help governments around the world exploit their historical tourist sites. Okay thats a stretch, but it does illustrate the point. You are right about targeted education though, we've covered that in the AN policies ourselves.smccarrick wrote: »We need jobs- but we don't need to compete with China/India/Singapore- as we seem intent on trying to do. As for productively exploiting all levels of education and skills of our people- a large problem is our people are improperly educated and skilled to exploit opportunities as they arise. Do you know we had over 13 times more archaelogy graduates in 2008 than we had in 1994? Thats just one example. What are these people supposed to do?0 -
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Hi,
The problem with asking for or demanding pay cuts is there are people who have made commitments based on their present earnings.
Our lending institutions have given out mortgages of staggering amounts to people based on their earnings at the time.
If the cost of all other goods and services could be slashed by 50% tomorrow, one cut synchronised by National Decree of our new (imaginary) Dictator people would still have the one big monthly payment they must make ie the mortgage because most of the money lent was borrowed outside the state by the lender.
The old rules of 2.5 > 3 times annual earnings for a mortgage, a car costing a years pay (financed over 3 years) a suit cost a weeks wages etc etc were thrown away by those who should have known better.
In the 80's the banks lent to business which included builders developers etc, they did not sell mortgages that was left to building Societies, the system worked because there was no conflict of interest.
Banks would not lend more than the finished product could be sold for i.e. sites or houses, the building society was a not going to lend more than the borrower could repay.
So it is not possible to slash pay to make ourselves more competitive as long as the big monthly payment exists which is why I believe we have not yet seen the beginning of problems in our society.
As to the Smart Economy ! What a joke.
The best training Fas could provide to a young man who has a good leaving cert is that of Tire fitter and car maintenance.
How many vacancies are there in our garages at the moment ?
maybe I should ask how many garages are still trading and not letting staff go ?
How does fitting tyres qualify as training for the Smart Economy ?
As you can see I am still annoyed.
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Don't start your lecturing about greed or deceit. I note that your location is Scotland. It's not like your own politicians are much better. Remember the expenses claims in Westminster?:rolleyes: Yeah up on your moral high horse.
Europe is demanding a balancing of books but quite honestly they aren't going to get what they are looking for. Who is going to bail us out? Europe that's who. The consequences for their currency of Ireland going bankrupt (which looks more and more likely) would be too much to bear.
Yes Ireland will be bailed out. Most or all of the money will go to the banks but at least we can start afresh and do things the right way this time.
Both Ireland and FF are wiser now. We will do thing differently.
The fact that this is the second time AIB are getting a bailout from the state suggests otherwise0 -
Don't start your lecturing about greed or deceit. I note that your location is Scotland. It's not like your own politicians are much better. Remember the expenses claims in Westminster?:rolleyes: Yeah up on your moral high horse.
Europe is demanding a balancing of books but quite honestly they aren't going to get what they are looking for. Who is going to bail us out? Europe that's who. The consequences for their currency of Ireland going bankrupt (which looks more and more likely) would be too much to bear.
Yes Ireland will be bailed out. Most or all of the money will go to the banks but at least we can start afresh and do things the right way this time.
Both Ireland and FF are wiser now. We will do thing differently.
Do what different ?
Hindsight is 20 / 20 vision FF were told by Irish and European economists they were making mistakes and the answer was the Fundamentals of The Irish Economy Are Sound.
If you think Europe will look kindly on us because to leave our economy to flounder would be an embarrassment don't kid yourself.
They may choose to step in if we are causing the Euro problems but it will not be gently, more like the steel capped boot.
The rules are in place for every member state perhaps we will be the first working example of what happens if a member state does follow those rules.
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So German and French workers should work to bail us out? Yeah....
If public sector wage cuts are politically impossible, then I don't know how to describe Europe bailing us out.
WE will.
Aren´t we all Europeans ?
If my next door neighbour or a friend is in trouble, I´ll help.
We´ve kept Portugal, Italy, Spain, Belgium and Greece above water.
Why should it be different with Ireland ?
In the 17- and 18-hundreds you helped a lot of my countrymen - as my nick implies, I´m from the Palatinate - for God´s sake, let us return the favour now.
Side remark:
The Palatinate lies in the south-western corner of Germany, adjacent to France, Luxembourg and Belgium.
It´s not Palestine. and the only terrorism we know is comitted by pub owners in not getting off their asses fast enough to serve more wine.
Concerning the jobless situation in Ireland, there could be help on the way.
We have a rapidly expanding market here in renewable Energy, from what I gather, some of these mostly new companies are thinking of moving part of production and research to Ireland.
Reason are more readily available production places, qualified or easy to train personnel and probably lower rents than in Germany.
It will take some months, but I´m sure, our countries will eventually work together.
And no fear of German domination, we have grown up since 45.
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I think you'll find that ireland is already being bailed out. 25 per cent of this year's bond issuance has been turned for cash at the ecb and the commission has already let the deficit go way above 3% and then the 10.75% the govt aimed for. How much more would you like germany to do given how cross they are about the poor regulation in dublin that let some of their banks go crazy and require a bailout?
The german banks that got into trouble lost their money speculating in the US housing market.
Nothing to do with Ireland.
Most of what was invested in Ireland went to US companies, but that money has been redeemed.
Head up, chest out and belly in, we´ll make it before the Yanks.
They´ve just created another bubble and that too will burst.:) 0 -
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smccarrick wrote: »Its not in France's or Germany's interest to bail us out- we are well above the average EU GDP- if they bail us out they will have a long queue of other equally worthy bailout countries clambouring to be helped. The ECB is not threatening action against us- and agreed to give us 3 years to bring our budget deficit back into agreed territory- and is redeeming our sovereign bonds on demand- this is as good as its going to get.......
We were warned about the hole we were digging for ourselves numerous times by both the French and the Germans- and we ignored them. Admittedly- the German ambassador could have been a lot more diplomatic about it, but all we did was put our heads in the sand- and pleaded the 'special Irish case'. Whoever invented the term 'Celtic tiger' should be hunted down and beaten up- the initial phase of our boom was built on robbing tax revenues from our EU colleagues with abnormally low corporation tax rates.
We are now going to have to stomach some very tough medicine- we are going to have massively cut expenditure and increase taxation. In order to make it worth people's while to work- we are also going to have to massively chop social welfare entitlements- and make people take any jobs at all that are available. Just because you are qualified as a pharmacist or an architect- does not mean you have any right or expectation to a job in your chosen profession (and don't get me started on archaelogists- god only knows why we have 14 times more archaeology graduates in 2008 than we had in 1994.
We are going to have to reinvent Ireland from the bottom up- and this time round- we have to accept that we are a small island on the periphery of the EU, we are not going to get a welcome when we go to Brussels with a begging bowl- its not going to happen. We have to get out of our parochial mindset- where every village is against every other village, every county against every other county- and the rest of the country against Dublin. The biggest surprise is that the country hasn't imploded a lot before now. Our elected representatives have to represent the needs of Ireland, not the needs of Mary Doyle in Cahirciveeen......
At the moment we have a massive deficit of leadership from all our politicians- there is no-one willing to stand up and say the hard things that need to be said. The public do not comprehend the gravity of the situation we are in- and no-one is enlightening them. Meanwhile we have every little special interest group holding their protests outside the Houses of the Oireachtas- sometimes as many as 6 or 7 seperate protests on any given weekday lunchtime. Our politicians habitually give in to these protestors- with comments about protecting the vunerable in society. Anyone who still has a job and is paying increased levies and taxes, are fast becoming the vunerable in society- but of course its not politically correct to say this.......
Our country is bankrupt, we're broke, both publicly but also privately. We need to accept this- and we need to communicate and educate each other on how to survive in our changed circumstances.
Don´t be so downhearted,
Lord, we´re just building up Europe and dammit if we don´t stand together.
No, I´m not talking of a Brussels government, I´m talking of a Union of sovereign countries, a coalition of friends.
Brussels would function best in a UN fashion, a place were we could get together and haggle out problems. Not a Big Brother.
This is 2009, not 1939.
Small Island you say ?
One of the most beautiful regions I have seen, and there was a lot of them.
A lovable and amicable population, what could be a better holiday place for folks of a crowded country.
Spain gets to be dangerous, Italy is far too expensive, Greece is not to everyones taste.
Tourism is one part of the irish economy that could and should be propped up.
I am not thinking of holiday resorts, that would be the wrong approach.
I am on about Guesthouses for families, private accomodation for singles and young couples.
Offered at a reasonable price and accompanied by an extensive advertising campaign including folk dance groups travelling Europe, Fiddlers and Singers they would draw a lot of Sangria-tired clientele.
.
Whatever happened to the Dubliners ?
They filled every hall they played in in Germany.
Were are Fiddlers Green, Irish Stew and the rest ?
If you have nothing to sell,sell your art, your joy, your love of life.
And if you catch a Leprechaun I´ll make the highest bid.
Give Europe the chance to partake in Irish friendliness and hospitality.
Don´t hide away.
It would be a terrible waste and for myself a great loss.0 -
Let me tell you why cuts in government spending must not happen.
The fact remains that alot of developed countries are printing money and feeding into their economies at a massive rate to keep credit going.
The ECB is resisting pressure to do this on a scale that the US is doing.
At a time of recession it's time to spend more NOT LESS to get things moving again yet they are talking of taking money out of the economy. I'm sorry but that spells disaster.
Maybe if Ireland was still in control of it's own currency we would embark on quantative easing just like the US. Instead sovereignty has been surendered to the EU.
I wouldn't be surprised if there is a political movement to get Ireland out of the euro and Europe. After all, what good are they if they don't help out in our hour of need?
What the Americans along with the Brits have not realised yet is, that Economy works like a car.
Most fuel is needed at the start in first gear. The higher the gear, the less fuel is needed.
I´m all for helping ailing companies and businesses as long as their boards consist of responsible people.
But what is given to start must be repaid at a later date.
To just hand it out to irresponsible people, like the US do at present, is out of the question.
Nobody asked to push-start a car will stay on to shove it to the scrap yard forty niles away.
The US Govt just does that.
We don´t need it.
After a little starting help we can help ourselves.
That is because we use our brains instead of merely our mouths.
We produce quality, not crap.
We´re Europe.0
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