December budget - predictions?

voxpop

dvpower wrote: »

On water charges - a flat water charge isn't a water charge at all; its just another tax if you can't relate it to your water usage at all.

and FF would never introduce a stealthy tax like that :pac:

BroomBurner

Agree with previous posters that value-for-money in the PS is needed. There is plenty of it about, but also plenty of waste. Perhaps a more transparent system of expenditure?

Anyway, possibilities on the budget:

- reduction of social welfare by €20-€25
- reduction of child benefit
- would like to see a slight reduction in corporate tax, just ever so slight(0.5-1%), to see if it will encourage more companies to relocate here. If it doesn't work, raise it back up next year
- Motor tax to increase
- Reduction in stamp duty
- Increase of the higher tax-band by 1% (to make a big deal of showing that they're capable of "taxing the rich")
- Reduction in funding to third level education

Hmm, can't think of much more at the minute.

mrgaa1

I also think that the carbon tax will extend to home heating oil as well as the usual fuels.
I would also favour removal of stamp duty and the introduction of a property tax but done in a fair way e.g. anyone who has paid stamp duty is exempt until the new property tax amounts up to what they paid over a number of years
reduce the amount of welfare
reduce the public servants by 20-25% over the next 2 years
reduce the tax on cigs, alcohol to encourage more drinking and smoking which would drive the cheap ciggies out of the country

gerry28

ei.sdraob wrote: »

I predict another emergency budget early in 2010

Or a press conference with a shook looking Lenihan and a stern faced IMF chief announcing a sizable loan!!

lmimmfn

said on the news there will be a 7% decrease in public sector pay across the board.

cyclopath2001

lmimmfn wrote: »

said on the news there will be a 7% decrease in public sector pay across the board.

That's not correct. What's proposed is a cut in the pay bill.

In talks with Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan at Government Buildings on Tuesday night, union leaders were told that the Cabinet was looking to cut the public sector pay bill by 6.85 per cent, or €1.3 billion.

Union leaders were told this reduction could come about by pay cuts or through alternative measures. Reducing the public sector pay bill does not necessarily involve cutting basic pay as it could be achieved, for example, by scaling back on numbers employed, curbing allowances, overtime or premium rates (variable or non-core pay) or pension payments.

Some departments have alreday acheived cuts, it remains to be seen if their staff will have to bear the burden of the profligacy of other departments, especially those whose ministers are still buying votes.

RealityCheck

As per Newstalk this morning it looks like the Government are planning to half the dole for those under 24. This accounts for some 90000 people, considering 25% of those under 25 are unemployed. This will more than likely account for a vast chunk of the welfare adjustment, with a decrease in child benfit also likely.

Dickerty

It really bothers me that the unions are going to pull so many strings around with the government does with it's own departments.

They need to get control back - these are providing services based on government policy and the public need, and they should be able to make every decision on the direction of those services. If they get it wrong, they will be judged accordingly.

Where were the ******* unions when public sector bodies were wasting money and being inefficient and overstaffed? They certainly weren't offering up any saves...

Diarmuid

RealityCheck wrote: »

As per Newstalk this morning it looks like the Government are planning to half the dole for those under 24. This accounts for some 90000 people, considering 25% of those under 25 are unemployed. This will more than likely account for a vast chunk of the welfare adjustment, with a decrease in child benfit also likely.

Great way to encourage emigration.

Nody

Diarmuid wrote: »

Great way to encourage emigration.

It is all part of the plan as the young once can send home money to their family to spend!

mac09

it looks very likely that a carbon tax will be introduced but will this pave the way for the abolishing of vrt?

what do people think?

ardmacha

Reduction in funding to third level education

On what basis, that less students are taken in, that registration fees increase? Third level education did not increase hugely during the boom.

I also think that the carbon tax will extend to home heating oil as well as the usual fuels.

Logically it has to apply to heating oil , green diesel etc. Not sure how it will work with natural gas and electricity.

it looks very likely that a carbon tax will be introduced but will this pave the way for the abolishing of vrt?

How on earth can VRT be abolished when the country has a €20bn deficit?

irish_bob

Diarmuid wrote: »

Great way to encourage emigration.

like an unemployed person would recieve more wellfare abroad , this is a good although at the same time an utterly predicatble move by the goverment

the under 24,s are less likely to have dependants , those in their thirties are most likely to have dependants and the elderly , well they have middle aged kids who dont want to see their inheritence spent on pills and doctor bills as shown by the street protests this time last year

tough descisions have to be made and the under 24,s being stripped of a large chunk of thier dole wont raise the ire of the liberal media to the same degree as cutting other demographics might , having too generous a wellfare state robs young people of the incentive to better themselves through a solid work ethic so all in all i dont see too much wrong with this move

Diarmuid

irish_bob wrote: »

like an unemployed person would recieve more wellfare abroad ,

People don't emigrate to take advantage of the dole elsewhere. They emigrate to get a job.

irish_bob wrote: »

l, having too generous a wellfare state robs young people of the incentive to better themselves through a solid work ethic so all in all i dont see too much wrong with this move

Well it's cynical, they have no voice and don't have some special interest group behind them. It is encouraging the people we need here, to get the hell out of the country. Again.

BraziliaNZ

irish_bob wrote: »

guards , nurses , teachers , 10% this year and the same for the next two years

so you're saying a 30% decrease of their wages in the next 3 years? Are you insane? How on earth are those people supposed to live on 70% of what they've got now? They will put up the prices of alcohol and cigs as usual, introduce more hidden taxes, and the cost of living is not really getting any cheaper in Ireland. There's no way people can still pay their mortgages and live normal lives, the cost of living needs to be lowered dramatically.
You need to realise that the public/civil service makes up a huge percentage of Irish workers, and cutting their wages by that much could really damage the entire economy, thus deepening the hole we're already in.

BraziliaNZ

mrgaa1 wrote: »

reduce the public servants by 20-25% over the next 2 years

Yeah really great idea, 25% less nurses and Gardai, because our healthcare system is so great and the streets are really really safe. What planet are you living on?

ParkRunner

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/budget2010/readyreckoner10.pdf

Thought this was interesting..calculations of various proposals for the 2010 budget in relation to income tax and the various credits that are available

dvpower

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

Yeah really great idea, 25% less nurses and Gardai, because our healthcare system is so great and the streets are really really safe. What planet are you living on?

It may be that planet where you need to pay your own bills.

dvpower

EF wrote: »

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/budget2010/readyreckoner10.pdf

Thought this was interesting..calculations of various proposals for the 2010 budget in relation to income tax and the various credits that are available

Interesting bit in there on the cost of reintroducing a child tax credit.
It might be a good idea to abolish Child Benefit and replace it with a mix of tax credits and targetted social welfare payments.

eoinbn

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

so you're saying a 30% decrease of their wages in the next 3 years? Are you insane? How on earth are those people supposed to live on 70% of what they've got now? They will put up the prices of alcohol and cigs as usual, introduce more hidden taxes, and the cost of living is not really getting any cheaper in Ireland. There's no way people can still pay their mortgages and live normal lives, the cost of living needs to be lowered dramatically.
You need to realise that the public/civil service makes up a huge percentage of Irish workers, and cutting their wages by that much could really damage the entire economy, thus deepening the hole we're already in.

Well if their biggest worry is about how they will afford to buy fags and alcohol then I think they need to rethink their lifestyle.

30% sounds huge, and it is, but it will probably be close to that by the time this is over. As you point out any cuts will hurt the economy in the short-term as it reduces the amount of money in the economy. This means ANY cut, or tax, we make will not have anywhere near the effect that it appears to give on the surface. The proposed €4b in spending cuts will probably only end up saving us €2b as PS workers will be paying less income tax, and everyone that has a few euro less will be paying less VAT/excise duty etc.

cutting their wages by that much could really damage the entire economy, thus deepening the hole we're already in.

If you follow that logic, which is the unions line, then pay increases are the answer to all our problems. It's a bit like a heroin addict saying that the best solution to his problem is to easy the pain by taking another hit instead of going cold turkey.

irish_bob

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

so you're saying a 30% decrease of their wages in the next 3 years? Are you insane? How on earth are those people supposed to live on 70% of what they've got now? They will put up the prices of alcohol and cigs as usual, introduce more hidden taxes, and the cost of living is not really getting any cheaper in Ireland. There's no way people can still pay their mortgages and live normal lives, the cost of living needs to be lowered dramatically.
You need to realise that the public/civil service makes up a huge percentage of Irish workers, and cutting their wages by that much could really damage the entire economy, thus deepening the hole we're already in.

the same way those in the private sector survive presently on 30% less than those in the public sector

my brother is a dairy farmer , this year , his income is 40% less than it was in 2007

if a certain number of public servants have over extended themselves ( guards buying 2nd and 3rd houses ) , that is not the problem of the tax payer , the cost of living will be down in jig time when the purchasing power of the citezenry is reduced , energy costs will come down when we stop paying ESB workers an average of 90 k per year , all thats needed is the will , the market will dicatate that cost of living corrects itself accordingly , it is the way of things

wicklowmale

Any social welfare benefits should be means tested.
Benefits should be reduced, your better off on benefits than working at the moment, this is wrong.( I was off sick for 6 months and considering my employers was deducting sick pay, i was still earning more than when fully paid)
PS paycuts, reducdancies ( if the government have the balls) otherwise the IMF will do it.
Property tax is already here for second homes etc
carbon tax is a sure thing
tax on bear and cigs will increase ( drunks on streets cause huge social problem and it is only right) (smokers also have more health problems than non smokers putting a burden on health service)
water rates, already in a number of other EU countries
Rates have been on cards for yrs so i would not be surprised.

I was a kid during the 80's and things were tough, young ppl do not know tough times yet, Economies go up and down all the time we did not expect these good times to last and it would be niave to think otherwise.

cyclopath2001

wicklowmale wrote: »

Any social welfare benefits should be means tested.

Including the contributory social welfare pension?

old boy

the first requirement of the goverment is to take in cash,
so the old reliables get hit,
fuel of every kind,
drink cigarettes,
vat to increase by 1/2%,
road tax on cars,
an across the board charge for water,
possible rates on houses and/or property,
an increase in health care.
savings
social welfare will take a big hit,
public service will be hit, not by much as the gov have not the balls, also they are not going to inflict pain on themselves and their buddys,
education will take a hit,
a bank charge to help finance nama.
postal charges to raise, (we have one of the cheapest services in the world).
income tax and or prsi will increase slightly.
oh i forgot
lube and vasiline will triple in cost, so as the pain of being shafted will remain the same, no cost,

musky

wicklowmale wrote: »

Any social welfare benefits should be means tested.
Benefits should be reduced, your better off on benefits than working at the moment, this is wrong.( I was off sick for 6 months and considering my employers was deducting sick pay, i was still earning more than when fully paid)
PS paycuts, reducdancies ( if the government have the balls) otherwise the IMF will do it.
Property tax is already here for second homes etc
carbon tax is a sure thing
tax on bear and cigs will increase ( drunks on streets cause huge social problem and it is only right) (smokers also have more health problems than non smokers putting a burden on health service)
water rates, already in a number of other EU countries
Rates have been on cards for yrs so i would not be surprised.

I was a kid during the 80's and things were tough, young ppl do not know tough times yet, Economies go up and down all the time we did not expect these good times to last and it would be niave to think otherwise.

recently unemployed, looking for work, struggling on 204 a week, unfortunately my loans dont disappear ala nama style.

cutting the insurance payout (benefit) that i have paid the premium (prsi) for is unacceptable, if it happens i will have a stark choice to make

steal or starve

thats the unfortunate reality

im not alone on this one

cut the dole and watch the crime rate soar

partypiper

cop on and pull the other one

204euro a week

plus rent allowance

plus medical card

plus get a part-time job 2 days a week and get paid for the days a week you miss out on probably ending up with about 400 a week for 16 hours work

ask your unemployed buddies up the north how they survive on whatever it is £60

Front

ardmacha wrote: »

On what basis, that less students are taken in, that registration fees increase? Third level education did not increase hugely during the boom.



Logically it has to apply to heating oil , green diesel etc. Not sure how it will work with natural gas and electricity.




How on earth can VRT be abolished when the country has a €20bn deficit?

Because VRT is generating fook all money at the moment.

halkar

Front wrote: »

Because VRT is generating fook all money at the moment.

Agree. Some tax is better than no tax. They still get the VAT.

musky

partypiper wrote: »

cop on and pull the other one

204euro a week

plus rent allowance

plus medical card

plus get a part-time job 2 days a week and get paid for the days a week you miss out on probably ending up with about 400 a week for 16 hours work

ask your unemployed buddies up the north how they survive on whatever it is £60

Cop on? Hmm obviously you are in an ivory tower, good for you.

I am on jb not ja, i have recently lost my job, i didn't ask for this and i am trying to get another - there isn't a lot out there is there?

I don't claim rent allowance or a med card ,nor will I, I am looking for a job, a full time job. Just like I had before the economy collapsed due to incompetent and illogical decisions that were made by corrupt and greedy individuals with little regard for anyone except themselves.

I have paid my social insurance as a law abiding citizen, why should my insurance payout be altered.

As for your tired rhetoric regarding my 'friends' in the UK, it is a different country you do understand that don't you?

Why do you think shoppers flood over the border to do their grocery shopping - its cheaper, a lot cheaper, i would expect that the rents are a damn sight less as well.

Lower costs = less money required to live.

If you would like to me to explain it to you in person I would be more than happy to debate it with you, maybe you could teach me how to be as efficient and understanding as you.

I am simply stating the obvious, this is an expensive country to live in.

If the dole is slashed radically there will be a ripple effect that will cost far more in keeping the peace than it ever would have if the cuts weren't to happen.

It costs in excess of €270,000 to keep someone in prison for one year compare this to €10623.60 on the dole for the same period.

Desperate times make desperate people make desperate choices.

namenotavailablE

My crystal ball predictions:

• Significantly higher petrol taxes somewhat countered by a reduction in VRT on new car sales (won't help those of us not buying a new car...). A long shot guess is that this may be accompanied by a lowering of VAT rate on petrol to counter the possibility of inflationary pressures caused by the price hike.
• Introduction of an SSIA style topup for pension relief accompanied by abolition of the current system of full tax relief for pensions
• Abolition of the income levy, Health contribution to be replaced by an increase in the existing PAYE rates (possibly with extra tax credits for people earning under €26000); a long shot- this might even herald a third PAYE rate which could be sold as not representing a tax increase if the various levies are incorporated into the PAYE rates
• Tax bands and credits frozen or very slightly widened.
• Public sector pay will either be reduced or the PS pension levies increased; maybe a version of the PS early retirement scheme will be unveiled;cuts in TD's pay or system of expense reimbursement?!;vague aspirations about gaining efficiencies through fuller use of IT/ staff up-skilling/ flexibility/ redeployment etc in the PS
• Temporary cessation of the annual contribution to the National Pensions Reserve Fund.
• Changes to the taxation of pension lump sums (currently tax free).
• Changes in social welfare rules, including those rules determining entitlement to (or rates of payment of) child benefit based on income; reductions in rent supplement linked to deflation; changes in jobseekers allowance/ benefit designed to incentivise claimants to take 'any job'
• Possibly a flat rate property tax or water tax?
• Significant scaling back of tax shelters, possibly in areas such as film investment/ car-parks/ hotels (if these latter two still exist?)
• Reversal of the VAT increases (to try stem the acknowledged mistake of raising them in last year's budget)- another long shot guess is that the 21.5% VAT rate may be somewhat lowered (to somewhere in the region of the NI rate) to try encourage some spending.
• Additional hikes in hospital related charges/ thresholds for monthly pharmaceutical purchases
• Changes in the area of business transfer / agricultural relief for Capital Acquisitions Tax & Capital Gains Tax