Future value of 07 cars due to emissions tax

Tuttlinghorn

Is there any point shelling out for an 07 reg/newer car if, when it comes to resale time for me in a few years, buyers will more likely spring for a newer 08 and get reduced tax ?

Would this only apply if I buy a diesel, and be the opposite if I buy petrol (i.e. an 07 1.6 -2.0l petrol will be more appealing than an 08 because cheaper tax)

I am trading up from a 02 golf (1.4l, 74k miles) to either C5/Saab 93/Passat (not sure diesel or petrol)

Apologies if this has already been discussed (couldn't find if it has)
As I write this I think the answer is glaringly obvious .... just wondering if I should be expecting to get good deals on 07 diesels now, as a result?

Tipsy Mac

With a 2 litre difference it's not going to make a massive difference, some of better performing diesel engines would save about 400 a year in road tax on the 2008 price versus the 2007.

Tuttlinghorn

Tipsy Mac wrote: »

With a 2 litre difference it's not going to make a massive difference,

Did you mean 'with a 2 litre petrol' it's not going to make much difference ?

Tipsy Mac

Tuttlinghorn wrote: »

Did you mean 'with a 2 litre petrol' it's not going to make much difference ?

Yes meant the diesel.

-Chris-

If it went up in tax in '08, then you'll be better off, if it went down then you'll be worse off.

If you get enough of a "discount" off the '07 car, then I'd say it'll be worth it, but bear in mind that it'll get harder and harder to shift as it gets older.

Think about it like this - if you're looking at a 2.0TDI Passat and comparing an '07 and an '08 and your expecting to keep the car for 3 years then you'll be selling a 4 or 5 year old diesel Passat.
Odds are it'll be worth €8-10k (maybe).

Someone buying a car in that price bracket is going to be sensitive of the fact that the '08 is €156 and the '07 is €614 to tax per year.
If they keep the car for 3 years also, they'll need to be aware that one car will cost €1,500 more to run than the other.

They'll also need to be aware that, when they try and sell their 7 or 8 year old diesel Passat, it'll be worth €4k.
Trying to sell a €4k car with tax that's €156 will be considerably easier than trying to sell a car with tax that's €614.

I'd expect the '07 Passat would be near worthless at that stage versus the '08 Passat.

So, to conclude, if someone were offering me an '07 diesel Passat it would have to be massively cheaper than the '08 model for me to take the risk on being able to sell it easily.


If on the other hand, if you're looking at a 2.0 petrol that went up in tax in '08, then you're just taking a risk full stop.
The market for those cars is dead, and fairly unlikely to recover.
Ignore the road tax in this case and just know that if you choose the wrong car, you might find yourself married to itI

mickdw

Dont assume that the petrol cars went up in 2008. Many of the modern petrol come in cheaper than when on the old cc based system. My 1.8Tfsi audi is 169g co2. that makes it 450 approx to tax for a year. this would have been 560 approx under old system.
I would agree that an 07 diesel would be only worth while at a serious reduction compared to an 08 car.
Take the example of 156 euro versus 600 euro tax. IMO, the 2007 would have to be about 5k cheaper due to it being a year older and then it would have to have the tax difference(€450) multiplied by the number of years of life left in the car knocked off so maybe another 6k off. So if 11k cheaper than the 08, it might be worth looking at.

Biro

-Chris- wrote: »

If it went up in tax in '08, then you'll be better off, if it went down then you'll be worse off.

If you get enough of a "discount" off the '07 car, then I'd say it'll be worth it, but bear in mind that it'll get harder and harder to shift as it gets older.

Think about it like this - if you're looking at a 2.0TDI Passat and comparing an '07 and an '08 and your expecting to keep the car for 3 years then you'll be selling a 4 or 5 year old diesel Passat.
Odds are it'll be worth €8-10k (maybe).

Someone buying a car in that price bracket is going to be sensitive of the fact that the '08 is €156 and the '07 is €614 to tax per year.
If they keep the car for 3 years also, they'll need to be aware that one car will cost €1,500 more to run than the other.

They'll also need to be aware that, when they try and sell their 7 or 8 year old diesel Passat, it'll be worth €4k.
Trying to sell a €4k car with tax that's €156 will be considerably easier than trying to sell a car with tax that's €614.

I'd expect the '07 Passat would be near worthless at that stage versus the '08 Passat.

So, to conclude, if someone were offering me an '07 diesel Passat it would have to be massively cheaper than the '08 model for me to take the risk on being able to sell it easily.


If on the other hand, if you're looking at a 2.0 petrol that went up in tax in '08, then you're just taking a risk full stop.
The market for those cars is dead, and fairly unlikely to recover.
Ignore the road tax in this case and just know that if you choose the wrong car, you might find yourself married to itI

Actually the 08 Passat 2 litre is €305 to tax. Save only €300 per year really, so if you were to keep it for 5 years you'd have saved €1,500. Not massive, but enough to consider what the buying price is. Selling price is another thing to consider.

colm_mcm

mickdw wrote: »

Dont assume that the petrol cars went up in 2008.

I can't think of a single non hybrid petrol car that made a significant tax saving in the budget. I take your point, but diesels benefited much more than petrols tax-wise.

-Chris-

Biro wrote: »

Actually the 08 Passat 2 litre is €305 to tax. Save only €300 per year really, so if you were to keep it for 5 years you'd have saved €1,500. Not massive, but enough to consider what the buying price is. Selling price is another thing to consider.

I got Bluemotion on the brain. Yeah, the 140 will be €302.

It's the '09s that'll get €156 road tax.

I still think people will be quite sensitive to a €300 tax difference between the 07 & 08 cars.

mickdw

colm_mcm wrote: »

I can't think of a single non hybrid petrol car that made a significant tax saving in the budget. I take your point, but diesels benefited much more than petrols tax-wise.

I agree that in general diesel obviously benefited more but many petrol cars have come down in tax too. I previously gave the example of the audi 1.8T. The best one I can think of though is the latest bmw 530i - 186g co2. Thats €600 approx compared to possibly 1300 on the cc based system.
I was just pointing out that the OP was not correct in assuming that petrol cars are a lost cause on the new system.

Voodoomelon

The real saver is with very large engined petrol saloons registered before July 08. If its in the top band which it most likely is, you're saving yourself eur500 a year in road tax.

2007-early 2008 will be my next car.

rccaulfield

Doesn't matter what discount you get off the 07-In a few years it will be unsellable and worth 0euros.

BnA

We're caught too with a 07 S-Max - 2 litre diesel.

I don't think we'll stay with the 2 tier tax system long term. I think it was just a way to ease in the emmissions side. I reckon that in a few years the old system will be dropped and everything will be emmissions based.

EPM

rccaulfield wrote: »

Doesn't matter what discount you get off the 07-In a few years it will be unsellable and worth 0euros.

Why's that?

yop

rccaulfield wrote: »

Doesn't matter what discount you get off the 07-In a few years it will be unsellable and worth 0euros.

Any chance you have the lotto numbers as well :rolleyes:

Its a hard one to call, suppose it depends on the person and the car, if its a rare car then there should not be an issue, but then again will the gov up the rates of tax in the budget? I suspect they will, so in a few years the tax rate which is low now could be a hell of a lot higher.

Tuttlinghorn

-Chris- wrote: »

If on the other hand, if you're looking at a 2.0 petrol that went up in tax in '08, then you're just taking a risk full stop.
The market for those cars is dead, and fairly unlikely to recover.
Ignore the road tax in this case and just know that if you choose the wrong car, you might find yourself married to itI

Chris, why is the petrol market dead ? Current price of fuel + tax rate differential?
I'm looking at a 2007 C5 (comments welcome) and theres a 1.8i for 8k post trade-in or a HDi (1.5) for 11k, similar mileage on both, slightly better spec on petrol.
C5 petrol - 79 quid more to tax an 08 model
C5 Diesel - 143 quid less (445 -302) to tax an 08 model

Obviously better mileage & cheaper fuel on diesel but for my c. 7k miles pa not sure its such a huge difference at current prices

So why has used Petrol market collapsed ? And whats the 'wrong car' ? (C5 from a local Citroen dealer)

R.O.R

You know, I really can't think of a car with a worse possible future resale value than a 2007 1.8i, old model Citroen C5.

No one really bought them when they were new, so there certainly isn't a market for them used. The diesel has a good engine (up to a point) and there is a bit of a following due to the fancy suspension, but they don't have the reputation for being the most reliable - nor are they particulaly good looking (IMHO).

The resale market for petrol cars is dead because the majority of people don't bother to understand what's happened recently. All they hear is that Petrol cars have gone up and cost a fortune to tax, and diesel cars have come down in price and cost nothing to tax. Sweeping generalisation I admit, but it's mainly true.

The good thing though, is that there should be some bargains available on 07 petrol models because of the above. If you are only doing 7k a year and will be keeping hold of the car for a while then you might as well go for petrol. The savings in fuel costs wouldn't warrant the extra you pay for the diesel version. If you are only looking at keeping the car 1 or 2 years then the extra resale value of the diesel might make it cheaper.

I'd avoid the C5 though. A Mondeo 1.8 Zetec would be a much better bet reliability wise, for something different maybe a Saab 9-3 1.8i or 1.8t. The one car we've had trouble shifting recently is a Petrol 9-3 so prices should be fairly low on them.

Tuttlinghorn

R.O.R wrote: »

You know, I really can't think of a car with a worse possible future resale value than a 2007 1.8i, old model Citroen C5.

given its the first car I tried at the closest dealer to me it would have been too good to be true ... laziness doesn't pay?

for something different maybe a Saab 9-3 1.8i or 1.8t. The one car we've had trouble shifting recently is a Petrol 9-3 so prices should be fairly low on them.

Looking at Carzone the prices seem to be about 18k more for a comparable 9-3 with about 30k on the clock ~ is that what you would term a low price for a 9-3 ?

(2007 C5 1.8i sticker price is 13k, less 5k for my Golf 1.4 = 8k. Maybe this means a lot of depreciation is already built in?).
Have you a link to the 9-3 you mention?

smash

rccaulfield wrote: »

Doesn't matter what discount you get off the 07-In a few years it will be unsellable and worth 0euros.

I tend to agree, in 5 years time the greens will be pushing for electric and anything with an engine will get hit with high tax!

Tuttlinghorn wrote: »

(2007 C5 1.8i sticker price is 13k, less 5k for my Golf 1.4 = 8k. Maybe this means a lot of depreciation is already built in?).
Have you a link to the 9-3 you mention?

Have you been offered 5k for you golf? If not... I think you're way off to be honest. If you have, jump on it.

Anan1

Voodoomelon wrote: »

The real saver is with very large engined petrol saloons registered before July 08. If its in the top band which it most likely is, you're saving yourself eur500 a year in road tax.

2007-early 2008 will be my next car.

Or even more in some cases. My car is €935 under the old system, had it been registered a week later it would have been €2100pa.

Tuttlinghorn

steve06 wrote: »

Have you been offered 5k for you golf? If not... I think you're way off to be honest. If you have, jump on it.

I was offered 5k trade-in vs a C5 and I need to decide between parting with 8k cash for petrol 1.8i or 11k cash for a 1.6 HDi .. both about mid 30k miles, I'll keep it for about 3 yrs and do c. 7k miles p.a.

Reading R.O.R's comments the C5 petrol has terrible resale value, but the consideration with the C5 diesel is the tax saving to be made by someone buying a 08 model. Currently 150 p.a and likely to increase in the next 3 yrs.

-Chris-

Tuttlinghorn wrote: »

Chris, why is the petrol market dead ? Current price of fuel + tax rate differential?

It’s mostly “just because”. The Irish populace has been convinced (or convinced themselves) that diesel is the way of the future.
If someone walked into the showroom asking for an A4 diesel, and they were doing 5,000KMs per annum, and I could sell them an A4 petrol for the same price that would suit their driving style and usage patterns far better than the diesel, I’d still be hard pushed to convince them I was right. People are just walking in the door saying “dieseldieseldieseldieseldieseldiesel”.
Irish people have always been very road tax sensitive anyway – look at all the 1.6 Avensis’s or Audi A4s that were sold here over the years. Arguably these are terrible engine choices for these particular cars, but nobody cared in the slightest if it saved them a few quid.

Tuttlinghorn wrote: »

Obviously better mileage & cheaper fuel on diesel but for my c. 7k miles pa not sure its such a huge difference at current prices

At your mileage, you shouldn’t be worrying about savings based on fuel, it’ll be minimal. It’s all about road tax & residual value for you.

R.O.R wrote: »

The resale market for petrol cars is dead because the majority of people don't bother to understand what's happened recently. All they hear is that Petrol cars have gone up and cost a fortune to tax, and diesel cars have come down in price and cost nothing to tax. Sweeping generalisation I admit, but it's mainly true.

I think this hits the nail on the head.

Tuttlinghorn wrote: »

Looking at Carzone the prices seem to be about 18k more for a comparable 9-3 with about 30k on the clock ~ is that what you would term a low price for a 9-3 ?

Can you link to the ones you’re looking at, I’m seeing them for €14-15k.

Tuttlinghorn wrote: »

Reading R.O.R's comments the C5 petrol has terrible resale value, but the consideration with the C5 diesel is the tax saving to be made by someone buying a 08 model. Currently 150 p.a and likely to increase in the next 3 yrs.

All tax rates will increase in the next few years imho, and the rates for band EFG will more than likely increase more than ABCD.

Tuttlinghorn

-Chris- wrote: »

Can you link to the ones you’re looking at, I’m seeing them for €14-15k.

here's the range of 07 petrol 9-3's. unless i want high mileage it is 18k +

http://www.carzone.ie/used-cars/Saab/9-3/2007?searchsource=browse&cacheBuster=1254223147879655#nParam=4294961630%2B4294910981%2B200590%2B223%2B235%2B102455&sortby=Make|0&channel=CARS&currency=EUROS

-Chris-

I'd also consider this one:
http://www.carzone.ie/search/Saab/9-3/1.8i-Lin/200927194491078/advert?channel=CARS

You'd definitely get that sub-€15k.

sk8board

rccaulfield wrote: »

Doesn't matter what discount you get off the 07-In a few years it will be unsellable and worth 0euros.

couldn't disagree more.

people are fixated with 520d's and a few other models, that used to cost 600, and now cost 156. So its about 4-450 pa of a difference. If I keep my car for 3-4 years, then I buy the '07 for about 1500 less than the current price of an '07; big deal.

But most cars are only about 100e tax pa cheaper, if at all. So when it comes to selling it; just pitch it 300 less than the '08+ model. Again, big deal.


all that said, I don't believe the Gov, considering they need all the money they can possibly get, will leave the current cars at 156e for long. Once the car market gets back on its feet, they will absolutely have to increase car tax, irrespectively of the Greens and the environment. (its already gone from 150-156 remember!)

technology, and the ability to have 120-140 Co2 cars, have actually caught the Gov on the hop, and I imagine VRT and car tax take for this year (even if we were selling 150,000 new cars) would be drastically down on previous years.
we've accidently killed the cash-cow; but don't worry I'm sure the Powers that be will restore normal service any day now

-Chris-

sk8board wrote: »

couldn't disagree more.

people are fixated with 520d's and a few other models, that used to cost 600, and now cost 156. So its about 4-450 pa of a difference. If I keep my car for 3-4 years, then I buy the '07 for about 1500 less than the current price of an '07; big deal.

But most cars are only about 100e tax pa cheaper, if at all. So when it comes to selling it; just pitch it 300 less than the '08+ model. Again, big deal.

Your calculations only seem to cater for the increased road tax spend and ignore the depreciation.

Depreciation is the biggest cost of running nearly any sub-6 year old car.

sk8board

-Chris- wrote: »

Your calculations only seem to cater for the increased road tax spend and ignore the depreciation.

Depreciation is the biggest cost of running nearly any sub-6 year old car.

sorry Chris, I actually was including depreciation, but didn't describe it well.

When I said I'd just pay 1200 less for an '07, I meant 1200 less than the already depreciated price. Ditto for an '07 in say 4 years time.

In the most extreme example, the pre-08 cars cost 450 pa less to tax, but in most cases its barely 100 pa less.

but the pre '08 cars will never be worth '0euro', and thats the big point, until their natural end of life.