Will Enda carry his constituency?

The_Minister · 02-10-2009 1:27am #1

Voting is tomorrow, and once the dust settles the results will be analysed by all and sundry pundits.

I can't help wonder if the result is a Yes - will Enda Kenny have been able to bring a Mayo Yes?
Will Cowan have gotten an Offaly Yes?

As far as I recall, both men failed last time to get a Yes in their own constituency, but while it came up in debate, it got no more than a cursory examination as most of the constituencies were a No.

This time around, if the result is a Yes, I can't help but feel that the result will reflect strongly on both men, particularly Enda Kenny.

If the Mayo Taoiseach can't carry his own constituency on one of the biggest issues of the day, how can he expect to be the trusted leader of Ireland?

I know that on Saturday I will be watching the Mayo votes with an especially keen eye.

Biggins · 02-10-2009 1:37am

Well with the amount of journalists in the country today, I'm sure one of them will report back on that particular question!

Wednesday September 30 2009
MORE than 500 television crews, radio and print journalists and bloggers from across the world will descend on Dublin Castle this weekend to cover the Lisbon Treaty count.
Compared to last year, when 345 media organisations covered the first Lisbon vote, 548 journalists are planning to direct their lenses and microphones to events from Friday morning.
Of the 550 accredited media personnel, about 165 are Irish. The majority of media organisations are from European countries that will be directly affected by the Irish vote.
An announcement on the result is expected by Saturday evening.

Of those registered with the Department of Environment for media accreditation, Germany has one of the highest representations at the vote count with ZDF TV Germany sending 15 journalists, and ARD German Television sending 18.
The BBC will be represented by 31 journalists.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/lisbon-treaty/worlds-media-descends-on-capital-for-second-vote-1899783.html

Kalashnikov_Kid · 02-10-2009 1:41am

Enda wasn't even the FG No1 TD in his constituency for many years...

The_Minister · 02-10-2009 1:41am

Saw Norweigan tv near the Spire today.

I ended up on French tv, and on BBC Newsnight last treaty.

Fun times.

Rb · 02-10-2009 1:50am

I couldn't blame any party leader for the results in this referendum, be they positive or negative.

Similarly, I won't attribute a No result to Sinn Fein, as much as they would like us to.

starbelgrade · 02-10-2009 1:51am

The_Minister wrote: »

Saw Norweigan tv near the Spire today.

I ended up on French tv, and on BBC Newsnight last treaty.

Fun times.

And Garda Patrol last time I checked.

As for Enda Kenny - I'm not convinced by him at all... he seems a bit like he wants to be president rather than Taoiseach.

Might explain the wig, I suppose.

The_Minister · 02-10-2009 1:52am

Rb wrote: »

I couldn't blame any party leader for the results in this referendum, be they positive or negative.

Similarly, I won't attribute a No result to Sinn Fein, as much as they would like us to.

What about the result in their own constituency?

starbelgrade · 02-10-2009 1:55am

Rb wrote: »

Similarly, I won't attribute a No result to Sinn Fein, as much as they would like us to.

Libertas claimed that after the last referendum - I heard Ganley talking about it a few weeks after Lisbon 1.

It was the first time I ever heard him & thought "cheek of him - I voted no becuse I wanted to, not because of you, whoever you are".

I did hear a BIT about Libertas before the vote, but I mistakenly mistook them for Veritas & couldn't firgure out why bible sellers were even interested in the treaty.

Rb · 02-10-2009 1:55am

The_Minister wrote: »

What about the result in their own constituency?

Oh, sorry, I meant the result in their own constituency.

What I meant was that I couldn't hold the any party leader responsible for the result in their own constituency in this particular case.

The Sinn Fein thing was where I got sidetracked.

Rb · 02-10-2009 1:56am

starbelgrade wrote: »

Libertas claimed that after the last referendum - I heard Ganley talking about it a few weeks after Lisbon 1.

It was the first time I ever heard him & thought "cheek of him - I voted no becuse I wanted to, not because of you, whoever you are".

I did hear a BIT about Libertas before the vote, but I mistakenly mistook them for Veritas & couldn't firgure out why bible sellers were even interested in the treaty.

Indeed, they took credit for the No, likewise I recall Sinn Fein rejoicing and claiming it as their victory also.

View · 02-10-2009 2:03am

The_Minister wrote: »

Voting is tomorrow, and once the dust settles the results will be analysed by all and sundry pundits.

I can't help wonder if the result is a Yes - will Enda Kenny have been able to bring a Mayo Yes?
Will Cowan have gotten an Offaly Yes?

As far as I recall, both men failed last time to get a Yes in their own constituency, but while it came up in debate, it got no more than a cursory examination as most of the constituencies were a No.

This time around, if the result is a Yes, I can't help but feel that the result will reflect strongly on both men, particularly Enda Kenny.

If the Mayo Taoiseach can't carry his own constituency on one of the biggest issues of the day, how can he expect to be the trusted leader of Ireland?

I know that on Saturday I will be watching the Mayo votes with an especially keen eye.

Laois-Offaly voted Yes last time. Mayo on the other hand had one of the largest No-Yes margins. If Mayo votes Yes, the No side will be trounced overall.

The_Minister · 02-10-2009 2:08am

Did not realise Laois-Offaly voted Yes - amazed quite frankly.

Would have expected a strong No.

Red Sleeping Beauty · 02-10-2009 2:16am

There's a nifty poll on wikipedia with the stats from the last result per constituency.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-eighth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_of_Ireland_Bill,_2008#Result
(the ref. link is dead unforunately)

Constituency Electorate Spoilt votes Total poll (%) For (%) Against (%)
Dublin South West, Donegal North East, Cork North Central, Dublin North West and Donegal South West are the top 5 who voted against it. I think more important may be did the votes there change because that's the task - keeping the "yes" votes from last time and changing the "no" votes.

Dublin South West voted predominently Labour in the Local Elections so Labour's influence could swing it.

According to the wiki charter, Cowen's passed it and Kenny's rejected it. The thing the op misses out on though is that this is direct democracy and it's a "personal vote" (as Eamonn Ryan put it). Voting along party lines is hardly an issue here is it ?

starbelgrade · 02-10-2009 2:17am

Rb wrote: »

Indeed, they took credit for the No, likewise I recall Sinn Fein rejoicing and claiming it as their victory also.

Sickening really. Like they really have any say ... no more than the Biffo himself, who, last time round was caught on audio as saying about the no-voters (albeit, unbeknownst to him), "those f*ckers should be careful who they're listening to".

imeddyhobbs · 02-10-2009 2:28am

This is not a european matter,why is this being hosted here?

starbelgrade · 02-10-2009 2:29am

imeddyhobbs wrote: »

This is not a european matter,why is this being hosted here?

Moved to the soccer forum.

imeddyhobbs · 02-10-2009 2:33am

starbelgrade wrote: »

Moved to the soccer forum.

Its still not a European matter but yet its still in an incorrect forum

marco_polo · 02-10-2009 2:40am

imeddyhobbs wrote: »

Its still not a European matter but yet its still in an incorrect forum

How is a discussion on how a constituency will vote in a European referendum not a European matter.

And more to the point why do you care so much?

starbelgrade · 02-10-2009 2:42am

imeddyhobbs wrote: »

Its still not a European matter but yet its still in an incorrect forum

Moved to the Ladies Lounge.

??? Go to bed dude.. you need a clear head to vote in the morning.

imeddyhobbs · 02-10-2009 2:47am

so now any irish politician that may have a future in Europe can be discussed in the European union thread on boards?just so that i know???

starbelgrade · 02-10-2009 2:50am

imeddyhobbs wrote: »

so now any irish politician that may have a future in Europe can be discussed in the European union thread on boards?just so that i know???

If they are involved in the EU, then probably. Possibly. I dunno.

Ask a mod, report the thread, or hit the helpdesk. We don't make the rules.

Scofflaw · 02-10-2009 2:51am

imeddyhobbs wrote: »

so now any irish politician that may have a future in Europe can be discussed in the European union thread on boards?just so that i know???

No. Go back and read the first post. The question "will Enda carry his constituency" refers to whether he will successfully get Mayo to vote Yes in this referendum we're having on an EU treaty - not whether he would be re-elected in a general election.

moderately,
Scofflaw

Bottle_of_Smoke · 02-10-2009 3:09am

The_Minister wrote: »

Did not realise Laois-Offaly voted Yes - amazed quite frankly.

Would have expected a strong No.

The recession talk only got heavy after the first lisbon referendum. I actually was a bit conspiracy theory about it for a while. Before the recession everyone loved Brian Cowen

I think the only other constituency to vote yes was Bertie Ahern's

robbie_998 · 02-10-2009 3:09am

Will Enda carry his constituency?

will waldo ever stop hiding ?

starbelgrade · 02-10-2009 3:34am

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

Before the recession everyone loved Brian Cowen

Speak for yourself, if that is your opinion, but dare not to speak on behalf of others please.

Bottle_of_Smoke · 02-10-2009 3:59am

starbelgrade wrote: »

Speak for yourself, if that is your opinion, but dare not to speak on behalf of others please.

Is English your first language? It's an expression - he was a popular guy when we had the first referendum.

Scofflaw · 02-10-2009 4:06am

Be nice, folks.

moderately,
Scofflaw

thebman · 02-10-2009 5:11am

robbie_998 wrote: »

will waldo ever stop hiding ?

Waldo doesn't hide, he waves in many of the puzzles and smiles and is looking out in many others.

Waldo wants to be found, its the artist that is trying to screw you over, keep looking :P

Oh and I think Enda will carry it for his constituency. If he doesn't, it won't look good, I'll leave it at that.

The_Minister · 02-10-2009 12:25pm

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

I think the only other constituency to vote yes was Bertie Ahern's

I think there were quite a few urban constituencies that voted Yes as well.

There were more than two anyway.

The_Minister · 02-10-2009 12:27pm

Alan Rouge wrote: »

According to the wiki charter, Cowen's passed it and Kenny's rejected it. The thing the op misses out on though is that this is direct democracy and it's a "personal vote" (as Eamonn Ryan put it). Voting along party lines is hardly an issue here is it ?

It's not about part lines, it's about a man saying he can lead the country when he can't even convince his own constituency on the most important issue of the day.

Long Onion · 02-10-2009 12:38pm

I will begin this post by saying that, despite appearances, Mayo is in Europe, as are Laois and (possibly) Offaly.

I will now say that the catholic church control the vote in Mayo, Enda is merely their spiritual figurehead. Appart from appearing at funerals, he holds no real power.

Will Enda carry his constituency?

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