Irish property market bound for recovery

gurramok · 07-11-2009 10:06pm

I first asked beeno67 yesterday at 12:34pm of where are those affordable 3 bed semi's are and all I got was an answer that a politician would be proud of

You see, I have a genuine interest as to where these affordable 3bed semi's lay as i am a potential FTB and am one of those that has been 'holding back' until value occurs in the market.

_Kooli_ · 08-11-2009 12:58am

gurramok wrote: »

Also, are you basing your whole argument on a couple rather than a singleton as most people who bought 20yrs ago were single buyers.

Are singeltons leppers?

In fairness nowadays most couples have 2 incomes. Even those with kids to mind. It wasnt like that 20 years ago.

_Kooli_ · 08-11-2009 1:00am

gurramok wrote: »

I first asked beeno67 yesterday at 12:34pm of where are those affordable 3 bed semi's are and all I got was an answer that a politician would be proud of

You see, I have a genuine interest as to where these affordable 3bed semi's lay as i am a potential FTB and am one of those that has been 'holding back' until value occurs in the market.

surely know how to use daft.ie or myhome.ie and can search for them yourself.

bangersandmash · 08-11-2009 1:38am

_Kooli_ wrote: »

In fairness nowadays most couples have 2 incomes. Even those with kids to mind. It wasnt like that 20 years ago.

If you had asked that question two years ago it wouldn't have been doubted. However, that assumption would have to be reassessed in light of current unemployment levels.

As for those with kids, in most urban areas on average the cost of child-care will largely negate the benefit of an second income.

The_Conductor · 08-11-2009 11:44am

_Kooli_ wrote: »

In fairness nowadays most couples have 2 incomes. Even those with kids to mind. It wasnt like that 20 years ago.

In all fairness- this is no longer the case. Its increasingly common for the erstewhile 2 income households to be down to 1 income- and very often, its the guy who has been made unemployed (or underemployed) and the role reversal of the woman as the main income in the house is causing a lot of relationship difficulties in many marriages.

It does appear that a return to single income households as the 'norm' is underway. Even the unemployment figures are hiding a myriad of ills- as many people have actively stopped seeking employment- choosing to have those children they had put off during the boom years etc.

Its dangerous to look back to the boom years and expect that anything from there is 'normal'.........

_Kooli_ · 08-11-2009 12:45pm

smccarrick wrote: »

In all fairness- this is no longer the case. Its increasingly common for the erstewhile 2 income households to be down to 1 income- and very often, its the guy who has been made unemployed (or underemployed) and the role reversal of the woman as the main income in the house is causing a lot of relationship difficulties in many marriages.

It does appear that a return to single income households as the 'norm' is underway. Even the unemployment figures are hiding a myriad of ills- as many people have actively stopped seeking employment- choosing to have those children they had put off during the boom years etc.

Its dangerous to look back to the boom years and expect that anything from there is 'normal'.........

Now that i a big HUGE barrel full of WILD assumptions you've made there. Any chance of some of those links you are so fond of asking others for to back those up?

_Kooli_ · 08-11-2009 12:51pm

bangersandmash wrote: »

As for those with kids, in most urban areas on average the cost of child-care will largely negate the benefit of an second income.

Now that depends on a number of variables doesnt it.
Like what that income is, and how much the childcare is.

Some people spend more on petrol than another would spend on childcare.

The_Conductor · 08-11-2009 12:52pm

_Kooli_ wrote: »

Now that i a big HUGE barrel full of WILD assumptions you've made there. Any chance of some of those links you are so fond of asking others for to back those up?

What are you talking about?
I did not imply that I was quoting specific sources- if you are insistent on specific sources- you may recollect that you did not provide any in the two instances that I requested them from you- you changed the subject instead. To this date you have not supplied the sources I requested.

If you listened to the MABS staff being interviewed on Morning Ireland during the week- they were hammering home the above points.

You are incredibly argumentative- and unwilling to subscribe to the same standards as you presume others are obliged to follow.

bangersandmash · 08-11-2009 1:24pm

_Kooli_ wrote: »

Now that depends on a number of variables doesnt it.
Like what that income is, and how much the childcare is.

Some people spend more on petrol than another would spend on childcare.

Of course it depends, hence why I mentioned "urban" and "on average".

Incidentally I wonder how many people in Dublin spend €200 per week on petrol.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0730/1224251670835.html

_Kooli_ · 08-11-2009 2:20pm

smccarrick wrote: »

What are you talking about?
I did not imply that I was quoting specific sources- if you are insistent on specific sources- you may recollect that you did not provide any in the two instances that I requested them from you- you changed the subject instead. To this date you have not supplied the sources I requested.

I think you are making this up?
Where did you request anything from me? And where did i change the subject after you requested anything from me?
Please just link to the posts.

smccarrick wrote: »

You are incredibly argumentative- and unwilling to subscribe to the same standards as you presume others are obliged to follow.

Pot and kettle tbh.
Elaborate please ?

I think we can agree, given the absence of definitive figures, that the vast majority of couples these days have 2 incomes. And that the vast majority of couples 20 years ago had one income.

Working life and income 20 years ago, was very much different than it is today.

johndaman66 · 08-11-2009 2:21pm

smccarrick wrote: »

In all fairness- this is no longer the case. Its increasingly common for the erstewhile 2 income households to be down to 1 income- and very often, its the guy who has been made unemployed (or underemployed) and the role reversal of the woman as the main income in the house is causing a lot of relationship difficulties in many marriages.

I must say I do know from speaking to a few of my friends who have lost their jobs that it certainly does cause friction and resentment in relationships. I think for many men who consider themselves the breadwinner loosing their job is a real kick to their ego which in itself would be a serious source of friction in many cases (call it backward if you will but I think its the reality of the situation). Granted I don't know what goes on behind closed doors and you might even argue that my small circle of friends are not representative of the population as a whole but I think it is fair assumption that one partner out of work on a long term basis will cause problems in a relationship in very many cases.

asdasd · 08-11-2009 2:30pm

that the vast majority of couples these days have 2 incomes. And that the vast majority of couples 20 years ago had one income.

I tend to agree with that ( although i would not say vast, it is probably 60-40 dual income now, and proably was about 80-20 single income then).

but all this is speculation unless we get the real figures.

The only thing I accept in the optimist argument on housing is that there has been a structural change on the number of incomes being used to a buy a house. But there is too much of a simplistic argument made. I will post more in the next box.

_Kooli_ · 08-11-2009 2:31pm

bangersandmash wrote: »

Of course it depends, hence why I mentioned "urban" and "on average".

Incidentally I wonder how many people in Dublin spend €200 per week on petrol.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0730/1224251670835.html

There is a lot to be said for shopping around - in all walks.
My sister pays €140 (she paid €170 a week last year - falling, as with rents and house prices) a week for childcare in Dublin. And thats for 10 months of the year. She takes home over €2500 per month after tax, so for her, childcare is worth it. She also gets bonus, VHI for the family, Life insurance and private pension 7.5% (which she adds another 7.5% to) paid by employer too which adds value.

Not saying its worth it for everyone, but just pointing put that childcare makes sense to those who pay for it.

asdasd · 08-11-2009 2:37pm

By and large the simplistic argument being made is that we can double the average income to work out average house prices . WE cant. Here is why not.

1) Single people still buy houses.
2) Women dont earn as much as men.
3) Not all couples are dual income.

So lets say that 80% of all couples are dual income, and women earn 80% of what men earn. The addition to the average is then (avgcome * .80^2). If 20% of house buyers are single then the average house shouold be a ration of (avgincome + avgincome * 0.8 ^3). Thats about 1.5 average income.

80% is very generous. If we assumed that 40% of people buying houses are single, women earn 70% of what men earn*, and only 70% of couples are dual income then the multiplier needs to be 1.3 times average income.

We need empirical evidence.

* to be more exact this figure should be what women earn in their 20's and 30's.

gurramok · 08-11-2009 2:44pm

_Kooli_ wrote: »

surely know how to use daft.ie or myhome.ie and can search for them yourself.

Nope, can't find any. Can you?

_Kooli_ · 08-11-2009 2:46pm

asdasd wrote: »

I tend to agree with that ( although i would not say vast, it is probably 60-40 dual income now, and proably was about 80-20 single income then).

but all this is speculation unless we get the real figures.

The only thing I accept in the optimist argument on housing is that there has been a structural change on the number of incomes being used to a buy a house. But there is too much of a simplistic argument made. I will post more in the next box.

You are right, there are many more variables.

Like the kids argument we see so often.

If you do have kids, you will most likely be renting a house rather than a double room. So children cost you more even if you are renting - childcare payments or not.

Id say im more of a neutral than an optimist or pessimist, but i do think that your average working couple can easily afford the payments on a €250k mortgage (especially if they are currently renting) - even if they dont fix and interest rates rise significantly.

If a coupleare renting a double room, then as long as they are happy renting a double room forever then they are obviously better off renting, but after 20 years in the double room, will they look back and rue that decision to stay there.

Davy · 08-11-2009 2:46pm

Has any one else noticed a lot of sale agreed signs up lately?

In the past while i have noticed plenty of housing changing from for sale to sale agreed around dublin. Im guessing once the houses are put a certain price they are selling. One house was up for less then 2 weeks when it went sale agreed

_Kooli_ · 08-11-2009 2:46pm

gurramok wrote: »

Nope, can't find any. Can you?

I didnt look.

What kind off houses and what price do you want and i'll have a look for you

gurramok · 08-11-2009 2:48pm

_Kooli_ wrote: »

In fairness nowadays most couples have 2 incomes. Even those with kids to mind. It wasnt like that 20 years ago.

So lets say you are right, what support is there when one part of the couple loses their job/have a kid/have an illness where they cannot work?

Mortgage payments literally double in those circumstances so where do they get the money from?

gurramok · 08-11-2009 2:50pm

_Kooli_ wrote: »

I didnt look.

What kind off houses and what price do you want and i'll have a look for you

3 bed affordable semis in Dublin as beeno67 said they exist everywhere.

I don't wanna live in junkie central as I work and want reward for my hard earned dosh so please leave out those results

_Kooli_ · 08-11-2009 2:54pm

gurramok wrote: »

So lets say you are right, what support is there when one part of the couple loses their job/have a kid/have an illness where they cannot work?

Mortgage payments literally double in those circumstances so where do they get the money from?

None, apart from a nice big (too big) chunk of dole for a while these days.
But life has always been like that.
People have always got sick. What happened 20 years ago when the sole breadwinner got sick?
We went to live in a council house when my Dad left. But sh1t happens and has always happened.

There is no guaranteed support for people who fall on hard times in any walk of life.

gurramok · 08-11-2009 2:59pm

_Kooli_ wrote: »

None, apart from a nice big (too big) chunk of dole for a while these days.
But life has always been like that.
People have always got sick. What happened 20 years ago when the sole breadwinner got sick?
We went to live in a council house when my Dad left. But sh1t happens and has always happened.

There is no guaranteed support for people who fall on hard times in any walk of life.

Well, 20 years ago it as usually the woman who stayed at home to mind the kids and perhaps worked part time to supplement income. The mortgage was mostly based on 1 full time earner so it was more affordable to manage if the out of work crisis happened.

Less of a risk than depending on 2 full time earners to contribute. The risk is greater nowadays with the huge sums involved and those lovely 100% mortgages thrown in and we don't have huge inflation to make the mortgage payments a pittance like our parents experienced.

_Kooli_ · 08-11-2009 3:09pm

gurramok wrote: »

3 bed affordable semis in Dublin as beeno67 said they exist everywhere.

I don't wanna live in junkie central as I work and want reward for my hard earned dosh so please leave out those results

What would you consider affordable?

Will we say anything between €250k and €300k on daft. Knock 10 - 20% off the asking price. After deposit should give you a mortgage of €200k to €250k.
Should give you a mortgage of €900 to €1200 for 25 years at 4%. Fix it for the first 5 or 10 if you want for even less. Get a working girlfriend and you're sorted after halving that

to €450 - €600 each.
Havent taken interest relief into account.

Myself and partner spend that on fags

- jesus:eek: ... must give them up

Ive left out some areas i thought to be iffy, though they might be ok, but there are plenty to choose from. Ive left in some you might not like either as i dont know if you are as much of a snob as me

_Kooli_ · 08-11-2009 3:13pm

gurramok wrote: »

Well, 20 years ago it as usually the woman who stayed at home to mind the kids and perhaps worked part time to supplement income. The mortgage was mostly based on 1 full time earner so it was more affordable to manage if the out of work crisis happened.

Less of a risk than depending on 2 full time earners to contribute. The risk is greater nowadays with the huge sums involved and those lovely 100% mortgages thrown in and we don't have huge inflation to make the mortgage payments a pittance like our parents experienced.

Life was not as easy as you think back then.
Mine didnt think the mortgage payments were a pittance. After the split my mother got the only part-time she could find job in a nursing home for £1.50 an hour. Lost the house and that was that. But that was unfortunate for us. Many others didnt.
In future some will fall on hard times and most will not.

edit:
I just realized that myself and partner could buy a house with the money we spend on fags (without even adding it to our current rent) - and there we were thinking we were good savers already - sickening feeling

Fighting Irish · 08-11-2009 3:20pm

All this waffle talk, the fact is houses in Ireland are still waay over priced and they are/need to continue falling in price

gurramok · 08-11-2009 3:30pm

_Kooli_ wrote: »

What would you consider affordable?

Will we say anything between €250k and €300k on daft. Knock 10 - 20% off the asking price. After deposit should give you a mortgage of €200k to €250k.
Should give you a mortgage of €900 to €1200 for 25 years at 4%. Fix it for the first 5 or 10 if you want for even less. Get a working girlfriend and you're sorted after halving that to €450 - €600 each.
Havent taken interest relief into account.

Myself and partner spend that on fags - jesus:eek: ... must give them up

Ive left out some areas i thought to be iffy, though they might be ok, but there are plenty to choose from. Ive left in some you might not like either as i dont know if you are as much of a snob as me

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?s%5Bcc_id%5D=c1&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=178&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=2834&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=197&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=214&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=2843&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=217&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=220&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=221&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=3755&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=222&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=224&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=233&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=234&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=235&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=236&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=247&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=248&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=2457&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=254&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=3782&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=260&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=2838&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=261&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=272&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=274&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=2841&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=275&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=276&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=277&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=278&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=2837&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=290&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=295&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=303&s%5Broute_id%5D=&s%5Ba_id_transport%5D=0&s%5Baddress%5D=&s%5Btxt%5D=&s%5Bmnb%5D=3&s%5Bmxb%5D=3&s%5Bmnp%5D=250000&s%5Bmxp%5D=350000&s%5Bpt_id%5D=1&s%5Bhouse_type%5D=semi-detached&s%5Bsqmn%5D=&s%5Bsqmx%5D=&s%5Bmna%5D=&s%5Bmxa%5D=&s%5Bnpt_id%5D=&s%5Bdays_old%5D=&s%5Bnew%5D=&s%5Bagreed%5D=&search.x=43&search.y=18&search=Search+%BB&more=&tab=&search=1&s%5Bsearch_type%5D=sale&s%5Btransport%5D=&s%5Badvanced%5D=&s%5Bprice_per_room%5D=

Nope, 300k is too much of a burden. Under 250k might suit as i'm a single buyer and if anything ever happened to me(job/illness) I don't want the burden of a huge mortgage where i'll be out on the street!

300k asking for a 3bed terraced in Santry is madness, is it made of gold bricks?

Don't want to live in Rush/Balbriggan/Lusk type outer towns either.

Noticed how Lucan is getting cheaper but the ones that are the lowest asking are beside Ronanstown. Coupled with suspect build quality out there and traffic mayhem with a long commute, a buyer would have to do some serious research.
So, based on your 'affordable' samples, the price is still too high even with a 10%/20% knockdown of the price, it just doesn't beat where I am renting now, i'll just have to wait further for value to come.

_Kooli_ · 08-11-2009 6:21pm

gurramok wrote: »

Nope, 300k is too much of a burden. Under 250k might suit as i'm a single buyer and if anything ever happened to me(job/illness) I don't want the burden of a huge mortgage where i'll be out on the street!

300k asking for a 3bed terraced in Santry is madness, is it made of gold bricks?
Don't want to live in Rush/Balbriggan/Lusk type outer towns either.

Noticed how Lucan is getting cheaper but the ones that are the lowest asking are beside Ronanstown. Coupled with suspect build quality out there and traffic mayhem with a long commute, a buyer would have to do some serious research.
So, based on your 'affordable' samples, the price is still too high even with a 10%/20% knockdown of the price, it just doesn't beat where I am renting now, i'll just have to wait further for value to come.

You may just be one of those people who are not meant to afford to buy a house. They do exist. Not of all of us have the divine right to be able to buy a house. Thats the way its always been. Some people are just ever going to be renters.

_Kooli_ · 08-11-2009 6:22pm

Fighting Irish wrote: »

All this waffle talk, the fact is houses in Ireland are still waay over priced and they are/need to continue falling in price

Probably. But its not because people cant afford them. Its because people dont want to buy them at this time.

gurramok · 08-11-2009 7:04pm

_Kooli_ wrote: »

You may just be one of those people who are not meant to afford to buy a house. They do exist. Not of all of us have the divine right to be able to buy a house. Thats the way its always been. Some people are just ever going to be renters.

Not a single house out there I will not be able to buy ever?:eek:

How about if I wait and those 300k houses come down to lets say 240k within the year, do you agree that this is a possibility?

_Kooli_ · 08-11-2009 7:10pm

gurramok wrote: »

Not a single house out there I will not be able to buy ever?:eek:

How about if I wait and those 300k houses come down to lets say 240k within the year, do you agree that this is a possibility?

It is a possibility alright. If they do how much do you think a mortgage on a 1 bed apartment will be? - Something ridiculously tiny. Tiny enough that people will be dying to buy them long before they reach that point. There is a floor.

What if they dont come down to €240k? Do you agree that this is a possibility too? Will you buy something smaller or just keep renting?

Irish property market bound for recovery

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