Irish property market bound for recovery

Euroland

Calina wrote: »

1) If the savings are held by those who a) own property

2) and b) remember when it didn't cost 10 times the average salary you can forget about them.

3) Debts have to be paid back and salaries are falling. Trust me on that, they are falling.

4) No. There still is no value in Irish residential property as outlined in at least one of my previous posts. Yields are still below attractive levels and capital appreciation is not guaranteed.

5) As explained before, it does however have an impact on the price they are willing to pay for that property.

6) I'm speechless.

7) Talk about the apartments that aren't selling while you're at it, please.

8) Yep...when we run out of current supply which we are nowhere close to doing except possibly in one or two sectors in Dublin. That "close" is relative to other sectors. As for the rest of the country...

9) Bar complete and utter uncertainty around their jobs and the fact that you've suggested we decimate salaries in the public sector.

1) As none of us has precise figures on the savings split we can only assume that the savings are split equally betweeen those who own properties and those who don't.

2) As the average salary in Ireland is around 38-39K euro, now you even can find properties in Dublin starting from 3.5-4 times the average annual salary, while on the countryside starting somewhere from 2.5-3 times average annual salary, which is very cheap relatively to many other countries in the world.

3) They are falling, but very-very slightly

4) Now there is value in Irish properties, as property value always comes from 2 sources: capital appreciation and rental income, and many Irish properties currently are underpriced

5) No it doesn't.

6) It is simple as 1-2-3: many prices over the last 12-16 months went down, i.e. food & clothing prices, petrol & gas prices, durable goods' prices, mortgage payments went down by 25-30%, while for most of the people salary reductions were marginal (if there were any at all) and tax increases as well account only for 2-10% net income reductions. So, overall the negative factors had much smaller impact on net incomes than the positive ones, therefore, most of the people are better off. Moreover, the property prices went down by 30-60% making such properties much more affordable. IMHO, the main negative remaining factor on the Irish residential property market, which is slowering the property market recovery, is the negative perception of the situation by majority of the people. If this attitude changes and the majority will begin to believe that the situation now is actually getting much better than it used to be 3 years ago, then soon it would be reflected in the property prices.

7) They are selling, depending on the area, but selling very slowly as many people still believe into further property price reduction.

8) There are many areas in Dublin where there is no overhang or it is very small. Please don't forget that Dublin accounts for 35% of population and shouldn't be neglected

9) Small reduction in public sector salaries (0-10% reduction for those who are on salaries below 50K euro, 10-15% for those who are on salaries from 50 to 100K, 20-25% for those who are on salaries from 100 to 150K, 25-35% for those who are on salaries from 150 to 200K, and 40% reduction for those who are on salaries above 200K) on a case by case basis would be only beneficial to the national economy and wouldn't make any serious impact on the most of segments of the Irish residential property market

ZYX

Euroland wrote: »

9) Small reduction in public sector salaries (0-10% reduction for those who are on salaries below 50K euro, 10-15% for those who are on salaries from 50 to 100K, 20-25% for those who are on salaries from 100 to 150K, 25-35% for those who are on salaries from 150 to 200K, and 40% reduction for those who are on salaries above 200K) on a case by case basis would be only beneficial to the national economy and wouldn't make any serious impact on the most of segments of the Irish residential property market

Would the benefits to the economy be before or after the riots

ionapaul

Wow - the last three years never happened! I think it is Comical Austin

Many of those with positive net worths at the moment (those with all those savings) are the same people who didn't buy five years ago because they though property was over-valued - why exactly will they buy now? I'm one of those people by the way - no interest in Irish property right now, better and safer places for my money!

gurramok

Euroland wrote: »

2) As the average salary in Ireland is around 38-39K euro, now you even can find properties in Dublin starting from 3.5-4 times the average annual salary, while on the countryside starting somewhere from 2.5-3 times average annual salary, which is very cheap relatively to many other countries in the world.

Ok to give you benefit of doubt, 4 times 38k is 152k. Do you expect someone on 38k to buy around that price where whats mostly available is located in junkie central?:rolleyes:

Euroland wrote: »

4) Now there is value in Irish properties, as property value always comes from 2 sources: capital appreciation and rental income, and many Irish properties currently are underpriced

Where? Give examples.

Capital appreciation - falling.
Rental Income - declining due to saturated market.

For the rest of your post, you are forgetting that banks lend based on NET income, not gross income hence lower disposable income from higher taxes do affect the amount one can borrow.

Also, why on earth would an investor plunge money into a house with a negative short term return?

Euroland wrote: »

9) Small reduction in public sector salaries (0-10% reduction for those who are on salaries below 50K euro, 10-15% for those who are on salaries from 50 to 100K, 20-25% for those who are on salaries from 100 to 150K, 25-35% for those who are on salaries from 150 to 200K, and 40% reduction for those who are on salaries above 200K) on a case by case basis would be only beneficial to the national economy and wouldn't make any serious impact on the most of segments of the Irish residential property market

Out of all this you are contradicting yourself. If there are pay cuts for the PS who form about 18% of the workforce, thats less money that this section can borrow to buy houses.

MG

ionapaul wrote: »

I think it is Comical Austin

Give up now pessimists! Your property market is surrounded by a million crack commando first time buyers ready to attack with battle tanks filled with cash and fuelled with easy credit. We will enslave your Neville Knot and employ thousands of wannabe interior designers to hideously decorate your showhouses. Inflate your prices now while you still have time infidels! Prepare to meet your Boom.

Snickers Man

beeno67 wrote: »

Where did you get the figure of 1.94 million houses in country? According to ESRI it is about 1.6million.

From the Late Late special on housing that I linked to. I know the LLS may not be the most definitive source on everything but the figure was agreed by both the guys on different sides of the argument so I reckoned it was fairly accurate.

beeno67 wrote:

Just checked CSO. In 2006 there were 1.77 million properties in state of which 80,000 were either temporarily unoccupied or holiday homes. Also occupancy rates are falling for last 50 years and are probably less than 2.8 at present

Three year old figures.

TJJP

Snickers Man wrote: »

From the Late Late special on housing that I linked to. I know the LLS may not be the most definitive source on everything but the figure was agreed by both the guys on different sides of the argument so I reckoned it was fairly accurate.

Not far off though. 1,934,000 is the current (2008) Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government (& CSO) estimate of housing stock.

http://www.environ.ie/en/Publications/StatisticsandRegularPublications/HousingStatistics/

Snickers Man

Euroland wrote: »

Now there is value in Irish properties, as property value always comes from 2 sources: capital appreciation and rental income, and many Irish properties currently are underpriced

You know, I can't work out whether you have your tongue in your cheek or your head up your arse. Which is it?

The_Conductor

Guys- just because people may disagree with one another- should not mean courtesy goes out the window. If you disagree with what someone posts- refute it, without getting personal.

Regards,

SMcCarrick

Euroland

Snickers Man wrote: »

You know, I can't work out whether you have your tongue in your cheek or your head up your arse. Which is it?

You look very brave & intelligent, kid. Did you mummy get a place for you at the local creche?

whizzbang

Euroland wrote: »

6) It is simple as 1-2-3: many prices over the last 12-16 months went down, i.e. food & clothing prices, petrol & gas prices, durable goods' prices, mortgage payments went down by 25-30%, while for most of the people salary reductions were marginal (if there were any at all) and tax increases as well account only for 2-10% net income reductions. So, overall the negative factors had much smaller impact on net incomes than the positive ones, therefore, most of the people are better off. Moreover, the property prices went down by 30-60% making such properties much more affordable. IMHO, the main negative remaining factor on the Irish residential property market, which is slowering the property market recovery, is the negative perception of the situation by majority of the people. If this attitude changes and the majority will begin to believe that the situation now is actually getting much better than it used to be 3 years ago, then soon it would be reflected in the property prices.

This is an interesting one alright. But the question is why have the prices come down? Is it that people are less willing to spend, or that the shops are doing it out of kindness? Also, even if salaries have not dropped a lot, there are a good extra 200,000 people who's income has dropped to €204 a week, ie on the dole. These people are very likely to be the ones who would have been FTBs as they would have tended to be in the younger demographic. this lack of supply of potential buyers will continue to undermine the entire market.
Property prices have dropped and are more affordable, but it doesn't mean they are actually affordable, they are just moving in the affordable direction. For example, if a loaf of bread was €1,000,000 euro, and had dropped in price to €750,000, it is more affordable, but still out of reach of most. The more the prices drop, the more they become affordable, but until the average salary can afford the average mortgage a general level of affordability will not have been reached.
You are right that one of the biggest things holding back the Residential property market is a fear of further price drops. If this changed then more people would be looking to buy houses. The only problem with this argument is that this perception is not going to change until prices have turned the corner and started going up. Sentiment will always lag the market, both on the downturn and the upturn. So you we can't expect a change of sentiment to cause the prices to go up again. It will just be a result of the recovery, not the cause.
So in summary prices are better than they were 3 years ago, but there is no reason to assume that they won't be ever cheaper in 3 years again.

I must add it is great to have a decent debate on here again! its been a while!

Euroland

gurramok wrote: »

Ok to give you benefit of doubt, 4 times 38k is 152k. Do you expect someone on 38k to buy around that price where whats mostly available is located in junkie central?:rolleyes:

The whole country is lavishly fested with junkie spots so you shouldn't worry about them at all (just ignore them). But with 152-156K now you can buy a studio or 1-bedroom apartment in many parts of Dublin and outside. The further you go the bigger property you can buy. For example, in Ballbriggan with this money you would already buy a 2-bedroom apartment/terraced house.

So, all of this now looks very attractive relatively to many other countries in the world where people have to put 5-40 average annual salaries to buy a similar property.

Euroland

ZYX wrote: »

Would the benefits to the economy be before or after the riots

So do you believe that a postman on a salary of 45K and earning with overtime up to 100K per annum (according to the local mass media) is fairly paid? As for my such a job even doesn't require a secondary education, so why does a postman makes much more than the people with the university degrees? It is unfare. IMHO, a postman should make a basic salary of 15-25K per annum + overtime for no more than up to 35k per annum. That's it. The same with many other public overpaid jobs.

ionapaul

Surely an across-the-board reduction in the salaries of the huge number of public servants we employ will quite directly lead to further downward pressure on house prices? I would think that those secure public service salaries were one of the few supports holding up prices since the economy started to tank.

The_Conductor

Euroland wrote: »

So do you believe that a postman on a salary of 45K and earning with overtime up to 100K per annum (according to the local mass media) is fairly paid? As for my such a job even doesn't require a secondary education, so why does a postman makes much more than the people with the university degrees? It is unfare. IMHO, a postman should make a basic salary of 15-25K per annum + overtime for no more than up to 35k per annum. That's it. The same with many other public overpaid jobs.

First of all- since when did you believe everything you read in the media?
An Post have starting salaries of around 18k (this would be junior counter staff) and are detailed fully here. Overtime opportunities are very rare these days- with additional part-time staff taken in for the Christmas rush, rather than massive overtime being given to pre-existing staff. In the past it may have been the case that overtime could easily account for a similar level of take home pay- to core pay- the situation at present is a ban on overtime. For an employee of An Post to earn a core salary of 45k- they would need to be a longterm employee of the company who have progressed up their salary scale and been promoted- or alternatively- a graduate in an executive position. 45k is not a standard salary. Please check it out.

Similar is the case in the civil service- graduate salaries start at 33,500- and top out at around 48k (after 12 years service). The link above has salary scales for the clerical grades.

The media hype about public sector salaries- is quite simply that- hype. You have a number of high profile cases (such as Brendan Drumm in the HSE, Roddy Molloy in Fas- or any of a number of other political quangoes)- which are used by the media to paint a far from accurate picture- because it sells newspapers. It suits the government to have a public sector versus private sector bashing going on- because it diverts attention from the appalling mess they have created, and have no idea how to solve.

Instead of simply regurgitating media hype- a few solid figures would be nice.

The_Conductor

ionapaul wrote: »

Surely an across-the-board reduction in the salaries of the huge number of public servants we employ will quite directly lead to further downward pressure on house prices? I would think that those secure public service salaries were one of the few supports holding up prices since the economy started to tank.

Moreso than already? Net salaries have already been cut by between 8 and 13%- the proposal is another cut, this time 6% of gross (probably ~4.8% of net), bringing cuts in net take home pay down by between 13 and 18% in a 14 month period.......

It would make sense to roll the pension levies into any deduction- or do a reverse benchmarking exercise- and reduce headline pay- in lieu of 1000 cuts by various levies- but this would have the knock-on effect of reducing the pensions of existing pensioners (who coincidentally qualified for benchmarking- as the grades their pensions were based on- were awarded). Surely it should be equal treatment for all- across the board?

The cuts thus far have been counterproductive- because once you factor in the levies and then indirect taxation- the government gets over 60% of gross pay back on the higher band (and then VAT and excise on any purchases on top of this). Chopping further- means that income also gets chopped........

We don't have the money to spend- but simultaneously- by cutting expenditure- we cut a reciprochal amount (via the multiplier effect) from income. It really is a case of you're damned if you do, and you're damned if you don't......

Its surprising that it really hasn't hit the public consciousness how appalling our fiscal situation has deteriorated to.........

ardmacha

As announced today inflation is -6.5%, this makes it more likely that public sector pay and social welfare will be cut. This will lead to other pay cuts in private businesses. Not the type of environment where the price of houses is going to go up, especially as the medium term interest rates will be quite a bit higher than now. This point was made by a British economist on the radio news yesterday, deflating wages means that houses have to go down just to maintain the current relationship to wages.

asdasd

But with 152-156K now you can buy a studio or 1-bedroom apartment in many parts of Dublin and outside.

So you are saying that the average salary now buys a very below average house? I think there is some way to fall, yet.

John_999

Hi all Just a side note on the previous comment I agree that the public sector salaries have gone through the roof and are plain unsustainable. I mean my wife worked in the public sector for 3 years in that time on top of a yearly increase they got benchmarking at leat 5 - 6 times. Which they pissed and moaned about if they didn't get it or it was delayed. Now they should be bench marked down. I think a postman earning 100k a year is absolutely crazy and now you have the unions kicking in. I think they have an absolute bear arsed check. Why I should I be paying there pensions. Why should I be paying there over inflated, under educated job. I mean I know postees who go in do 1 - 2 hours work and then put in for 8 hours work. Sorry for picking on the postees but its true. Not to mention our number 1 Brian earning more than Barrack (sorry about the spelling here) Only in Ireland could this happen. Public sector wake up and if you dont like it go to college and get a private job that will pay you more

On the property side of things I have a house and I had cash put by for a rainy day so I have bought one of these apparments about a week ago on the burbs of dublin . Its a 2 bedroom and at the peak of its power it was going for 299k and was actully sold but the buyers pulled out last minute ..Over the last 3years it went from 299k to 249k to 199k to 160k. I put an offer of 130k in so we agreed to split the difference. I got it at 145k. The most I could get from the bank was 80% LTV meaning I had to have 20% of the mortgage. Now fortunately I had 50% up. I have a fairly hefty mortgage as is and had no problem getting cash from the bank with negitive equity on my first house.

So it firstly dispels the crap about no value out there on the market. As Del boy says he who dares and I do dare. I reckon in 20years I will have doubled my investment easily( I dare anyone to come up with a statistic to prove me wrong). Secondly it shows the banks have money again to loan but there are being more prudent and making sure that the owner of the property is putting in more capital upfront. Well done banks . Thirdly no one here has brought in what Nama and Lisbon will do for the ecconomy or the prices on properties. Ireland have historically mirrored the US ecconomy with a lag. The U.S is now in an upturn ditto the main players in Europe Sure the U.K have had there 3rd monthly rise in property prices this year. The market is bottoming out here guys. There were 5 other appartments going for dearer than the one I have bought and 3 of them have sold in the last month. So this isnt statistics this is info from the ground.

The better news for me is that I have someone a family member ready to move in and they have garunteed me that they will be staying there for at least 2-3years cha-ching

So lets see the rent they are paying pays the mortgage and also gives me just under 200 euros a months extra happy days.

Now just a note of caution. I had this money waiting for the property to go under. It has my friends I think anyone waiting for it to slide further is mad. As its 50% or under than boom time and remember when Nama comes in anyone with difficaulty paying the mortgage will be helped rather than have there property repossessed that was part of the bail out details of Nama. But anyone struggling I would strongly advise not to do what I done as I said I had start up cash.

So lets ask the question that no one here has asked

If you bought a property in the last 5 years which you are in negitive equity even if you have lost your job (the majority of people take out mortgage protection) and the banks will try to help you renegotiate payments(brought in by Nama)..Why would you sell unless your stupid and inbred ?

Answer = No therefore the availalbility of property will come down over the next year or so


Also does anyone think that if Nama recieves aload of these properties. They will not let them all go out together. They will slip stream them therefore lowering supply. The government now has this power and I know your question what will they be doing with the rest. RENTING THEM TO PEOPLE WHO ARE FECKED, BROKE, REFUGEES etc.


There is further evidence of this slip streaming. I had my eye on a place out in City West ..right beside where the new Luas line is going. The properties last year were takin off the market. I know a guy who works for the same company but in a different branch and he said they were taken off as they know once the luas line is completed they will get much more for them next year 2010.

Its hard to say what will happen but lets see what happens on this rollercoaster ride which is the irish property market. If you have cash and are in for the long term. Now is the time to buy not next year as I garentee you the foreign investers are waiting to swoop. An old saying wait till the blood on the street has dried before taking action, but that is too late ...you need to be out there shedding the blood. Get in before these fecking inverstors.

But hey what do I know...see you later I am off to spend my 200Euros extra that I am getting.:)

The_Conductor

ardmacha wrote: »

As announced today inflation is -6.5%, this makes it more likely that public sector pay and social welfare will be cut. This will lead to other pay cuts in private businesses. Not the type of environment where the price of houses is going to go up, especially as the medium term interest rates will be quite a bit higher than now. This point was made by a British economist on the radio news yesterday, deflating wages means that houses have to go down just to maintain the current relationship to wages.

Public sector pay didn't rise since the last budget (despite the 2 increases due under Towards 2016), with a few notable exceptions. Social welfare payments did increase however (by 5%- with deductions in some categories such as rent allowance).

Between the two- there is definitely the potential to chop 6.5% straight from all public sector payscales, and 10% from all classes of social welfare and HSE disbursements- and neither the public sector employees nor the social welfare recipients will be able to say they've had a cut in their standard of living (though obviously they'll be poorer as a result).

Unfortunately- this will only cut expenditure by a little over 3.1 billion- there is another 2 billion to be cut from elsewhere.........

I predict a riot....... (start chanting Kaiser Chiefs to self.......)

Euroland

Fresh news on price decreases (supporting my position that most of the employed people are now better off than 3-4 years ago):

Irish consumer prices fell 6.5% in the year to September

Irish consumer prices fell 6.5% in the year to September, as deflation deepened to the steepest level since the early 1930's.
Consumer prices in September, as measured by the CPI, decreased by 0.4% in the month.
The annual decline in the CPI has deepened from 4.7% in May to 6.5% in September.

The CSO said today that the EU Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) also fell by 0.4% in the month, compared to an increase of 0.3% in September of last year. As a result, prices on average, as measured by the HICP, were 3.0% lower in September compared with September 2008.

The most notable changes in the year were decreases in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (-28.5%), Clothing & Footwear (-13.8%), Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (-6.0%) and Transport (-4.0%). There were increases in Miscellaneous Goods & Services (+7.6%), Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (+7.5%), Education (+3.9%) and Health (+2.5%).Services prices fell by 7.5%in the year to September, while Goods fell by 5.3%.

The most significant monthly price changes were decreases in Food&Non-Alcoholic Beverages (-1.3%) and Transport (-0.9%). There was an increase in Clothing & Footwear (+3.6%).

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1018081.shtml

gurramok

Euroland wrote: »

The whole country is lavishly fested with junkie spots so you shouldn't worry about them at all (just ignore them). But with 152-156K now you can buy a studio or 1-bedroom apartment in many parts of Dublin and outside. The further you go the bigger property you can buy. For example, in Ballbriggan with this money you would already buy a 2-bedroom apartment/terraced house.

152k-156k, show us examples within the city & suburbs and outside of whats on offer for someone on a good wage of 38k.

asdasd

I dare anyone to come up with a statistic to prove me wrong

We would be pressed to come up with future statistics, now wouldnt we?

But the reasons why property is not going to continue to climb were hashed out in this thread for quite a long time. Admittedly you did get a good reduction in the place you paid for, compared to someone who bought a few years ago.

But you do know the real value of those kinds of houses dont you? Close to zero. Thats why NAMA is swooping in. Unles houses are destroyed the close to 2 million properties in the State is far to many for the population - it is a 2-1 split at the moment but the population is adjusting downwards.

So

Wages are falling.
Population is falling.
Emplyment is falling.
Interest rates have yet to go to their normal level. Remember in most recessions the increase in interest rates happens before the recession - causes it in most cases ( to stop inflation getting into the system).

The banks are lending to you because you gave them 20% of the house risk free. The house can now fall 20% and you lose, they dont. Further they own the mortgage, and the house is merely collatoral. You have already proven that you are happy to pay a mortgage on a house which is underwater, to be in negative equity and to continue to pay them, so they like the sound of that. Cha-ching.

Euroland

ardmacha wrote: »

As announced today inflation is -6.5%, this makes it more likely that public sector pay and social welfare will be cut. This will lead to other pay cuts in private businesses. Not the type of environment where the price of houses is going to go up, especially as the medium term interest rates will be quite a bit higher than now. This point was made by a British economist on the radio news yesterday, deflating wages means that houses have to go down just to maintain the current relationship to wages.

The residential property prices already went down by 30-60%, so reduction in public sector salaries by 10-15% still would give the employed in public sector much better position (for buying property) than they were just 3-4 years ago. Especially if we also count on the decrease in consumer prices.

asdasd

in public sector much better position (for buying property) than they were just 3-4 years ago. Especially if we also count on the decrease in consumer prices.

I think you're big fallacy is to believe that there is a strong connection between wages and prices. The connection is loose. If there is too much housing then house prices fall. The buyer has his pick. He gives the lowest price he can. The seller must agree.

And... the real big elephent in the room is the future rise in interest rates. Thats another Irish calamity. It will take an amazing amount of money out of the economy.

Snickers Man

Euroland wrote: »

You look very brave & intelligent, kid. Did you mummy get a place for you at the local creche?

OK. I'll rephrase as politely as I can. Your arguments are so bonkers that I must question whether you are trying to get a rise out of everyone for a laugh or whether you are a sincere but more than slightly unrealistic "voice crying in the wilderness".

There. Attacking the post rather than the poster.


You have said but one semi-sensible thing. IMHO, the main negative remaining factor on the Irish residential property market, which is slowering the property market recovery, is the negative perception of the situation by majority of the people

It is semi-sensible because it recognises the important effect of confidence in a market such as residential property. It deserves the semi- prefix because your implication is that people's current perception is false. It is not.

It was much more false when the "irrational exuberance" of the boom years pushed property prices to ridiculous levels. That was mainly about confidence too. Confidence that property will never fall in real value and that investing in houses is the safest of safe bets.

Your attempts to spin the oversupply of dwellings compared to population as a good thing is ridiculous. IF there is oversupply and prices drop, as is happening, it may well be possible for people to purchase property at knock down prices. But in the current market they will find it hard to rent out to get an early revenue stream. So the strategy will likely have to be to buy outright and hold until things pick up.

That won't favour a lot of investors: only those with deep pockets who are interested in a long-term play. But what happens to those properties in the mean time? MAny of them will become derelict, decrepit junkie and squatter infested hell holes. Sort of like happened in Amsterdam with the kraakers in the 1970s and 1980s.

So of course sentiment in the residential property market in Ireland is negative. There is every reason that it should be. And it will stay that way until the Irish property market stabilises around a much lower median than was the case a few short years ago.

John_999

We would be pressed to come up with future statistics, now wouldnt we?

Because even at worse the most pessimistic if the market stays fecked till 2020 it will still rise well above what they are worth today in 20 years. You cant argue this point.


But the reasons why property is not going to continue to climb were hashed out in this thread for quite a long time. Admittedly you did get a good reduction in the place you paid for, compared to someone who bought a few years ago.

I never said they were rising I said they had bottomed out and I gave reasons why.

But you do know the real value of those kinds of houses dont you? Close to zero. Thats why NAMA is swooping in. Unles houses are destroyed the close to 2 million properties in the State is far to many for the population - it is a 2-1 split at the moment but the population is adjusting downwards.

Explanation here please I agree with the so called ghost towns but as someone else pointed out if you have bought within commuting distance of any major city how can the value be close to Zero...You have no facts to base this on. There is still some immigration into Ireland aswell I know its not as much as previous years and I have given 2 reasons whey supply will be stripped away in the comming years, yet you have not mentioned these?

So

Wages are falling.
Population is falling.
Emplyment is falling.
Interest rates have yet to go to their normal level. Remember in most recessions the increase in interest rates happens before the recession - causes it in most cases ( to stop inflation getting into the system).

Agreed but

House prices have fallen at least 50%
Cost of living has fallen - at 20%

So there is an offset here aswell


The banks are lending to you because you gave them 20% of the house risk free. The house can now fall 20% and you lose, they dont. Further they own the mortgage, and the house is merely collatoral. You have already proven that you are happy to pay a mortgage on a house which is underwater, to be in negative equity and to continue to pay them, so they like the sound of that. Cha-ching.

True they own the mortgage. I have negative equity in my house as stated previously and as I said for the next 3 years someone else is paying my mortgage on the apartment with 200 left over

So your entire rebuttal wasnt very well thaught out now was it?

asdasd

Get in before these fecking inverstors.

Ah, yes. The brilliant investors who made so much money on the last boom. Are these guys not in liquidation.

by the way you *are* an investor.

John_999

Hey Asdasd...I just advised anyone who has the cash and are in it for the long tem to go and buy. If investers get a sniff the prices will go back up. It simple Ecconomics?

The_Conductor

2 people banned for personal abuse.
If you're incapable of debating without personally attacking other posters- you will be banned (length of ban dependent on a number of factors).

Its very easy to post in this forum- if you disagree with what someone posts- you refute the post, without attacking the poster.

Next person who breaks this rule, gets a longer posting holiday than the 2 I've banned thus far.........