The Greens - will they bolt?

Eggball

Will the Greens cut out at their special convention, or will they get their 2/3 majority?

Biggins

Himm and haw - then cave in.
The usual.

Ludo

To me, they appear to be preparing to leave the government. The statements they have made in the last week seem to be almost preparing the way for their departure. The statement today about O' Donoghue being a prime example.

The_Minister

They can't go.

If they do, and an election is called, then they will only have one TD left.

They will be finished as a party, and their agenda will go to the wayside.

jank

The_Minister wrote: »

They can't go.

If they do, and an election is called, then they will only have one TD left.

They will be finished as a party, and their agenda will go to the wayside.

Thing is though I think if they are seen to have brought down the government then that could be a very popular move for them. Remember the PD's had the same oppertunity but didnt take it, the Greens cant make the same mistake.

Kalashnikov_Kid

The_Minister wrote: »

They can't go.

If they do, and an election is called, then they will only have one TD left.

They will be finished as a party, and their agenda will go to the wayside.

I'm not so sure - if they are just seen as yes men to the big daddy in power then I think they will lose a lot of their credability - like a certain libertarian party that were once big in the 80's - the name escapes me!

The greens have a good chance to pick up seats in Cork (Dan Boyle) and Louth (Mark Deary). They will lose a few too for sure, but I can't see them coming out of this in a good light if they don't give NAMA some meaningful debate, at the very least. They are already on a slippery slope as it is - maybe they should cut their losses.

mike65

They lack the bottle to bring down the gravy train (so to speak).

The_Minister

jank wrote: »

Thing is though I think if they are seen to have brought down the government then that could be a very popular move for them. Remember the PD's had the same oppertunity but didnt take it, the Greens cant make the same mistake.

The opposition will just say 'too little, too late', as will most of the media, and Fianna Fail will turn on them.
They will lose the same number of seats, and their agenda will be destroyed.

They are an ideologically based party, they care more about doing what they can for their cause, as opposed to thinking about what may be done in ten years time if they grow.
Their issues have a time limit on them and need immediate action - they cannot wait.

Sand

@The_Minister

You are aware of course that the Greens cant avoid an election for ever? And their popularity is hardly going to increase by being seen to provide the life support for a hated government? Especially after the December budget? Especially if they bring down NAMA on us, with the promise of a third of the budget going to service the national debt for years, if not decades to come?

The ship is going down, its only a matter of when and how the Greens choose to exit - on a point of principle where they make the best of things by drawing a line between themselves and Fianna Fail, admit it was a really bad idea and wear some sackcloth and ashes for a year or two. Their core vote hasnt got much places to migrate to after all, and if they see the Greens doing the right thing, even at the 11th hour...then theyll be more inclined to forgive.

If they follow the "Hang on for dear bitter life" and wholly alienate not only their floating vote, but also their core vote, then they *will* be buried at the next election.

If anything, if they manage their exit properly, and claim credit for bringing down this joke of a government then they might just pick up a spot in a Rainbow government opposing Fianna Fail - even if Fianna Fail get caned, itll still probably need as many TDs as possible to keep the Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein/Independants out of power. The Greens arent stupid - in power with a lame duck government like Fianna Fail, lurching from crisis to crisis until the inevitable electoral annialation in 2012 or in power with a government with an actual mandate to 2014/15.

imokyrok

The Green have worded their Nama motion in such a way that it will only take one third of the delegates to agree with Nama for it to proceed. One third of any group of delegates would vote for practically any proposal. The conference is about cosmetics, nothing more. They have no intention of pulling out.

jank

Sand wrote: »

@The_Minister

You are aware of course that the Greens cant avoid an election for ever? And their popularity is hardly going to increase by being seen to provide the life support for a hated government? Especially after the December budget? Especially if they bring down NAMA on us, with the promise of a third of the budget going to service the national debt for years, if not decades to come?

The ship is going down, its only a matter of when and how the Greens choose to exit - on a point of principle where they make the best of things by drawing a line between themselves and Fianna Fail, admit it was a really bad idea and wear some sackcloth and ashes for a year or two. Their core vote hasnt got much places to migrate to after all, and if they see the Greens doing the right thing, even at the 11th hour...then theyll be more inclined to forgive.

If they follow the "Hang on for dear bitter life" and wholly alienate not only their floating vote, but also their core vote, then they *will* be buried at the next election.

For once I agree with Sand. Better to lose a few seats now and let the party continue rather than face annihilation like the PD's did.

If the PD's brought down the government before the last GE I can tell you now they would still be a party, not a footnote in the history books.

jank

imokyrok wrote: »

The Green have worded their Nama motion in such a way that it will only take one third of the delegates to agree with Nama for it to proceed. One third of any group of delegates would vote for practically any proposal. The conference is about cosmetics, nothing more. They have no intention of pulling out.

I am pretty sure it is 2/3 but I know that the new program for government has to have a 2/3 majority for it to pass. Easy way for the greens to pull the plug!!

Remember the greens are fairly blameless in all this mess. They were unluckly to enter government at the time they did. They have the benefit of seeing how the PD's ended up and 95% of people who hate the government hate FF as it was they who have been in power for the last 12 years.

The greens can earn alot of public brownie points by finally slaying the beast!

Thats my view on it anyway

Liam Byrne

AFAIK, they require two-thirds support for whatever motion.

But the sneaky feckers that brought us Sargent "I won't lead the Greens into Government with the scum" have "negatived" the proposal, so that in real terms they only require one-third.

That's my read of what I've heard, anyway.....

Biggins

jank wrote: »

I am pretty sure it is 2/3 but I know that the new program for government has to have a 2/3 majority for it to pass. Easy way for the greens to pull the plug!!

Remember the greens are fairly blameless in all this mess. They were unluckly to enter government at the time they did. They have the benefit of seeing how the PD's ended up and 95% of people who hate the government hate FF as it was they who have been in power for the last 12 years.

The greens can earn alot of public brownie points by finally slaying the beast!

Thats my view on it anyway

...and I agree.

The two thirds quota has been mentioned a number of times alone over the last few days in the news alone.
...and IF the Greens did indeed do the right thing - they could win back some credibility in the last few days/weeks/months of their term in the Dail.
Will they be that shrewd? I seriously doubt it.

dresden8

Remember, any new taxes are Green taxes.

Surely even the greens can see through this.

imokyrok

jank wrote: »

I am pretty sure it is 2/3 but I know that the new program for government has to have a 2/3 majority for it to pass. Easy way for the greens to pull the plug!!

Remember the greens are fairly blameless in all this mess. They were unluckly to enter government at the time they did. They have the benefit of seeing how the PD's ended up and 95% of people who hate the government hate FF as it was they who have been in power for the last 12 years.

The greens can earn alot of public brownie points by finally slaying the beast!

Thats my view on it anyway

No - they have been very FF about it. The Nama motion is to reject NAMA (this will require a two thirds majority, i.e. one third needed to prevent this rejection). This was told to me by a Green member who was then very irrate that I made this fact public. They learned the art of political manipulation at the feet of the masters.

Lame Lantern

In bringing down the Fianna Fáil coalition government of 1992, the PDs increased their Dáil standing from six to ten (figures off the top of my head), successfully distancing themselves from an unpopular Reynolds government rather than sweat out the remaining years until the next mandated election. Dictating the terms of an election will make the party appear stronger and ideally cut the perceived idealogical umbilical chord with Cowen.

However, for the Greens, this next election will not be about expanding their voting base. It will be about retaining their sitting TDs which means appeasing their grassroots. In the current climate they cannot hope to do so through the implementation of policy (not that people will listen to that kind of politics right now anyway) so an assault on Fianna Fáil will help them campaign in liberal constituencies sympathetic to their ideology where they have long standing election infrastructures in place. Off the top of my head, Cuffe, Ryan and Gormley will all be capable of running solid campaigns after taking down Fianna Fáil. Even if the government's support recovers somewhat in subsequent years, this would remain their best opportunity for re-election.

If the Greens know their voters, they'll run like hell. If they're mistaken in thinking they launch a broad, national campaign having remained in government until 2012, we'll be seeing Sargent flying the flag solo once again.

Trotter

Why isn't Gormely sitting down with Eamon Gilmore and Enda Kenny saying "I'll pull the plug, but in return I want whatever Greenies that are left to be in on the next government" ?

I suppose for all we know he might be.

Biggins

Trotter wrote: »

Why isn't Gormely sitting down with Eamon Gilmore and Enda Kenny saying "I'll pull the plug, but in return I want whatever Greenies that are left to be in on the next government" ?

Jeasus - what a good idea! I'd even consider looking at them in a good light again!

mike65

If Gormley put that to me as the leader of FG or Labour I'd tell them to feck off, as they clearly couldn't be trusted any further than they could be thrown!

ei.sdraob

Watch frontline on now on rte1

the greens sold out

dvpower

Trotter wrote: »

Why isn't Gormely sitting down with Eamon Gilmore and Enda Kenny saying "I'll pull the plug, but in return I want whatever Greenies that are left to be in on the next government" ?

I suppose for all we know he might be.

That presupposes that
a) FG / LAB actually want an election at the moment
b) the Greens would still be around after the election
c) any deal done now would be respected later

Biggins

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Watch frontline on now on rte1

the greens sold out

If true - no surprise.

dvpower

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Watch frontline on now on rte1

the greens sold out

I dunno; they seem to be speaking with a number of voices.

ei.sdraob

dvpower wrote: »

I dunno; they seem to be speaking with a number of voices.

they seemed to be bickering alot between themselves and especially fianna fail

and whats with the one going on about animal rights? animals are important but ffs there are people in serious trouble who need jobs

Trotter

Here we have a number of the greens saying the people on the doorsteps want them to stay in goverment. I seriously doubt that.

Biggins

Trotter wrote: »

Here we have a number of the greens saying the people on the doorsteps want them to stay in government. I seriously doubt that.

I swear on my own life - I have yet in the last year to come across ONE person that wants that.
Thats just crap PR spin. :mad:

ei.sdraob

maybe the greens should go green

dvpower

ei.sdraob wrote: »

they seemed to be bickering alot between themselves and especially fianna fail

and whats with the one going on about animal rights? animals are important but ffs there are people in serious trouble who need jobs

If that lot are representative of the 500 meeting in the convention, I'd say they're going to have problems getting a 2/3 majority.

I wouldn't want to be in the fur farm business right now

Trotter

They think that they can save the country with 8 TDs. Its self serving, self survival rubbish. I have a sinking feeling they'll stay in. Sickening.

ei.sdraob

Trotter wrote: »

They think that they can save the country with 8 TDs. Its self serving, self survival rubbish. I have a sinking feeling they'll stay in. Sickening.

yes that was a certain feeling looming like a bad smell, watching all that

some appear to care more about staying in power and implementing their far off green ideas, rather than doing whats right for the country

power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely

edit: wtf are they going on about carbon taxes and planning? these issues are so far down the list of issues that need to be addressed its not funny