The Greens - will they bolt?

pat kenny · 06-10-2009 3:19pm

I was pro Lisbon, always have been since I read about it before the first vote and I voted yes despite my displeasure with the government. So I am able to differentiate between two separate issues.

But in my view the 2 motions that the green party members will vote on in their special meeting are 2 sides of the same coin. They are dressed up as two separate issues to give both the best possible chance of passing the votes. However a rejection of either would mean a collapse of the government.

NAMA is such a serious debate that it should be the only issue on the agenda at the green party conference.

Taconnol you accuse me of not being able to separate 2 distinct issues.
Yet the truth is you are unable to distinguish 1 issue that is simply dressed in 2 sets of clothing.

Sand · 06-10-2009 6:48pm

If NAMA is passed, a third of the budget will go to servicing the nations debt, more than three times what it currently is paid.

Can any of the Greens explain to me how their "green" programmes will be paid for when a third of the budget is tithed to the banks before health, law enforcement, social welfare is paid for? They are dreaming if they think theres going to be some green economy when the government will struggle to even pay wages.

If the Greens dont bring down the government now before they enable this theft from the taxpayer, then they will be wiped out in the elections when they finally do come. Wiped out. There wont be a Green party left.

spongeman · 06-10-2009 7:13pm

I would say Johnny Cash would have to resign before Saturday or there will be an election.

Macha · 06-10-2009 7:17pm

Sand wrote: »

If NAMA is passed, a third of the budget will go to servicing the nations debt, more than three times what it currently is paid.

And again I ask, what is the alternative to NAMA?

The FG proposal promises some magical silver bullet that can solve all our problems by setting up a 'Good Bank'. Unfortunately their plan involves not paying back international investors in AIB/BOI etc because if you take out all the good assets and give them to the Good Bank, the bad assets won't be enough to pay back investors (or depositors like me for that matter). Not exactly the best idea to promote future confidence and investment in our future banking system. So that means this Good Bank will have to be entirely funded by the taxpayer and the ECB because who in their right mind would invest in it given that they've just been screwed over??

Sand wrote: »

Can any of the Greens explain to me how their "green" programmes will be paid for when a third of the budget is tithed to the banks before health, law enforcement, social welfare is paid for? They are dreaming if they think theres going to be some green economy when the government will struggle to even pay wages.

The Green Economy is already underway, with investment coming into the country. Andris Piebalgs has stated we have some of the best wind and tidal resources in Europe. Moreover, reliance on domestic energy production will cut some of the €6bn that leaves this country every year in payments for imported energy. I don't understand how you can dismiss the green economy like this.

Tenderloins1 · 06-10-2009 7:28pm

If theres a vote in the Dail JODs a goner , so he's as good as gone.
So the Greens cant demand his head (even though his role in 'non political').
I dont think that they will bolt although it will be very close.

Sand · 06-10-2009 8:06pm

And again I ask, what is the alternative to NAMA?

1 - Manage the winding down of the banks that cant survive, encourage the entry of new banks. Spend NAMA money on something economically useful. Removes moral hazard - Ireland will never have to do another bailout again as banks grasp they wont be bailed out and thus monitor their own risk.

2 - Recapitalise the banks directly in exchange for shares. This is the US route. Taxpayer takes the risk, taxpayer gets the upside of shareprice recovery. The original fury of the US taxpayers for having to bail out the banks has been eased somewhat given the profits the US govt has made on its investments with the increasing bank shares.

3 - Temporary nationalisation, with a NAMA style asset management programme - this will remove the overpricing controversy as the taxpayer will own both sides of the equation so cant be cheated.

4 - Temporary nationalisation, without a NAMA style asset management programme. Clear the decks, write off the shareholders and subordinated debt, negotiate with senior debt holders and relaunch the banks.

5 - Good bank, possibly in conjunction with 1.

I really, really get tired of the TINA! TINA! TINA! argument. There are plenty of alternatives we could try. Hell, we could try "Do nothing...let the banks figure it out themselves" and save ourselves 54 billion right out of the gate. The only reason NAMA is getting 99% of airtime and drowning out discussion of alternatives is because its the governments idea, and god help us if it goes through.

Not exactly the best idea to promote future confidence and investment in our future banking system.

Yeah, look - I hate to break it to you, but investors tend to be heartless cruel monsters who dont really care what happened Thursday if they think they can make money on Friday. They know investing involves risk. That kind of goes with the territory. So long as they feel confident they understand the level of risk they are taking on, then they will invest.

who in their right mind would invest in it given that they've just been screwed over??

People who understand the risk theyre taking and want to make money?

The Green Economy is already underway, with investment coming into the country. Andris Piebalgs has stated we have some of the best wind and tidal resources in Europe. Moreover, reliance on domestic energy production will cut some of the €6bn that leaves this country every year in payments for imported energy. I don't understand how you can dismiss the green economy like this.

Right, and to retool Irelands economy...that will require how much government investment? To tap into the magical wind and tidal resources Ive been hearing about since...Oh I dont know, since I was 12 maybe?

Cut *some* of the 6 Billion that leaves the country? A percentage of 6 billion? Oh, thatll be great. Thatll help offset the 9.1 billion thatll be leaving the country in interest payments alone every year.

When a third of your budget is gone before you even think about paying your Guards, Nurses, Doctors, Civil Servants, Social Welfare recipients and picking up JODs expenses bills...how much is going to be left do you think?

jhegarty · 06-10-2009 8:30pm

I think NAMA will go through , and the government will start to fall apart the following day.

DublinWriter · 06-10-2009 10:21pm

Two sources very high up in the Green party said to me off the record today that they will walk this weekend.

If they do walk, I think that they will gain a lot of credibility with the Irish voter.

They are playing real-politic: FF will be almost totally decimated in any General Election and as an extremely vulnerable minority party they need to divorce themselves from the impending train-wreck.

Like everyone else, internally they're pre-occupied with saving their own skin right now.

old boy · 06-10-2009 10:25pm

if there is any justice the clown prince will go in the morning, the clown cowen will be gone at the weekend, and the joke that is is nama will never see the light of day.

DublinWriter · 07-10-2009 8:50am

old boy wrote: »

if there is any justice the clown prince will go in the morning, the clown cowen will be gone at the weekend...

...and the King will be dead, long live the King.

Biggins · 07-10-2009 10:19am

Should be right interesting this morning!

Link: http://www.oireachtas.ie/viewdoc.asp?fn=/documents/livewebcast/DailFlash512KB.htm
(LOL No picture at the mo but the sound is on - "Morning Paddy - How are ya getting on?..."
They better be careful what they say before they know the cam's are turned on!)

imokyrok · 07-10-2009 11:07am

DublinWriter wrote: »

Two sources very high up in the Green party said to me off the record today that they will walk this weekend.

If they do walk, I think that they will gain a lot of credibility with the Irish voter.

They are playing real-politic: FF will be almost totally decimated in any General Election and as an extremely vulnerable minority party they need to divorce themselves from the impending train-wreck.

Like everyone else, internally they're pre-occupied with saving their own skin right now.

If they wanted to walk I don't think they would have manipulated the wording of the Nama motion to ensure it only needs one third of the delegates to support it in order for Nama to proceed.

The motion is to reject Nama. That means that two thirds have to vote to reject it. Clever eh. They've learned the fine art of political manipulation at the feet of the masters.

Debate on Motion 2:
“The Green Party/Comhaontas Glas rejects the National Asset Management Agency Bill 2009 and requires the Parliamentary Party to reject it in the Oireachtas.”

http://www.greenparty.ie/en/news/eve...0_october_2009

Liam Byrne · 07-10-2009 11:31am

taconnol wrote: »

And again I ask, what is the alternative to NAMA?

NAMA might be palatable if there were a few changes:

1) Retrieve ALL bonuses and severance pay from any of the bankers that landed us in the ****; fine them under the Companies Act for reckless trading

Result : Some justice done and the voter sees some justice done; paying off corrupt scum like O'D and FAS because there's no choice is one thing; paying off people who ran companies into the ground - with OUR money - is so twisted it's almost full circle!

2) Pay the current estimated market value ONLY

Result : It's fair and represents the risk accurately

3) Tell current bank shareholders to forget about their money; they stood by while their boards gambled their money away - it's GONE; and it's not OUR fault that it's gone.

They bought the bank shares when they were low, and they were happy when they went high; well tough **** - they're currently worth about €0.20c, and guess what - that's capitalism

The "bounce" the day after NAMA was announced was sickening to see.

Result : Live by the sword, die by the sword

4) Include preconditions and rules that ensure that the money given by us won't be used to shore up profits and pensions and bonuses; ring-fence the money as a loan fund

Result : No more self-serving boardroom antics

5) Buy up the bank shares at current stock market value (again, current shareholders = tough ****; it's called capitalism) and use every asset of the state to retrieve the cash from - as well as fine and convict - those developers who milked it

Result : Less risk and less outlay, as well as even more fairness; sell the entire bank somewhere down the line and the money goes to us, not to the people who - if we didn't bail it out - would get ABSOLUTELY ZERO.

In fact, the ONLY problem I have with nationalising the banks is the fact that it won't mean the banks would be run any better; given the issues re Financial Regulators, Bertie Ahern, FAS heads, J'OD and the lack of calls for justice to be done, I reckon a state-owned bank could be as dodgy a liability as the current ones.

Liam Byrne · 07-10-2009 11:33am

Biggins wrote: »

Should be right interesting this morning!

Link: http://www.oireachtas.ie/viewdoc.asp?fn=/documents/livewebcast/DailFlash512KB.htm
(LOL No picture at the mo but the sound is on - "Morning Paddy - How are ya getting on?..."
They better be careful what they say before they know the cam's are turned on!)

13 people (I use the term loosely) there! No wonder they don't want a clock-in mechanism!

PrestonDaly · 07-10-2009 11:36am

The greens.

This crowd have the support of 2.5% of the population, how about they get lost and take their little carbon taxes with them.

bSlick · 07-10-2009 1:34pm

imokyrok wrote: »

If they wanted to walk I don't think they would have manipulated the wording of the Nama motion to ensure it only needs one third of the delegates to support it in order for Nama to proceed.

The motion is to reject Nama. That means that two thirds have to vote to reject it. Clever eh. They've learned the fine art of political manipulation at the feet of the masters.

http://www.greenparty.ie/en/news/eve...0_october_2009

Well whatever about the motion on Nama, if two thirds of them don't vote for the revised programme for government this weekend its the end of the line. And from their wishlist for the programme I don't see how they can come to an agreement with FF so it'll be interesting to see how many vote for it.

Biggins · 07-10-2009 1:43pm

Liam Byrne wrote: »

13 people (I use the term loosely) there! No wonder they don't want a clock-in mechanism!

EXACTLY!

The British PM question time goes on for an hour+ at least.
Ours is ten minutes at most!

Depressing, deeply depressing!

jimmmy · 07-10-2009 2:15pm

If the greens really cared about the environment they would support decentralisation....think of the fuel used trying to commute around Dublin. You only need to see the vehicle loads of people returning to their country roots at the weekend from Dublin to realise many p.s. workers would prefer work nearer their friends and family at home. Rents - commercial + residential - are cheaper in the country as well.

Riskymove · 07-10-2009 2:45pm

jimmmy wrote: »

If the greens really cared about the environment they would support decentralisation....think of the fuel used trying to commute around Dublin.

wow!

thats quite a position.....as far as I can see decentralisation is about as un-friendly to the environment you can get

In my org's Dublin offices we may well have some staff who head home for the weekend but most get public transport to and from work each day

in the decentralisied offices in my org pretty much everyone drives to the office....you may not know this jimmmy but not everyone who works in a decentralised office lives in the same town...I know of people travelling quite long distances to our decentralised offices every day

in addition there are far more people travelling for meetings etc than would be the case if we were all in one location

Lame Lantern · 07-10-2009 3:16pm

Biggins wrote: »

EXACTLY!

The British PM question time goes on for an hour+ at least.
Ours is ten minutes at most!

Though most of that time is spent screaming vaguely racist diatribe about immigration in the hopes that the Daily Mail will dedicate a few more column inches to the conservatives. Ten minutes of substance is about all you'll see there too.

Trotter · 07-10-2009 3:19pm

Going back to the OP's question, I think the safety nets are in place by FF for the Greens to bolt, but I don't think they've the morals or guts to do it.

The Greens are all set to blindly stay to push their principles onto us regardless of what crooked partners they have. Green at all/any cost, and screw the rest of us.

jimmmy · 07-10-2009 3:47pm

Riskymove wrote: »

in the decentralisied offices in my org pretty much everyone drives to the office

sure is'nt it great they are, all the nice 06 and 08 cars;)

Bring down wages + let them cycle or walk. It would be healthier for them. Some live only a half mile from work + still drive. Maybe they have too much money left over ( compared to their Dublin counterparts ) because of cheaper property prices and lower cost of living...even cheaper pints . In Dublin most commuters use cars...think of all the pollution caused by the stop - start traffic ....and by many of the same cars going back down the country at the weekends.

Trotter · 07-10-2009 5:13pm

Why has a lot of the media commentary today shifted towards there being a tiny chance of the Greens pulling out?

They need 2/3's of their voters to go for this new programme for government. I dont get how people are so sure that they'll get the votes.

I'm not sure either way, but I have a feeling they'll stay put. I have nothing really to base that on though.

Has there been behind the scenes moves that lead the commentators to believe the government is safe this weekend?

Biggins · 07-10-2009 5:19pm

Trotter wrote: »

...Has there been behind the scenes moves that lead the commentators to believe the government is safe this weekend?

You can be sure there is a lot of lobbying going on right now.
A lot will know what way they will be voting despite 'pressure', some will go one way or another, the 'knowns' will stick with Gormley and co.

I'd hazard a guess that phonelines are burning somewhere between now and their voting on upcoming important motions.

Darragh29 · 07-10-2009 5:40pm

Biggins wrote: »

You can be sure there is a lot of lobbying going on right now.
A lot will know what way they will be voting despite 'pressure', some will go one way or another, the 'knowns' will stick with Gormley and co.

I'd hazard a guess that phonelines are burning somewhere between now and their voting on upcoming important motions.

E-mail sent to Paul Gogarty TD This afternoon...

Subject: Careful now Ted...

Dear Paul,

I am a constituent of yours residing at XX XXXXXXX XXXX, XXXXXXXXX, Dublin XX. On the last occasion, I gave you a first preference vote and I understand several of my family also did the same on my recommendation.

Last 24th May 2007, I voted for change and some two and a half years later, our country is in absolute bits.

I have come to the conclusion that this government is economically and socially retarded, it has lost the confidence of the people who live in this state and this absence of confidence is now preventing economic recovery.

If your party decides to remain in government this coming Saturday, DO NOT COME NEXT NOR NEAR THIS DOOR LOOKING FOR A VOTE ON THE NEXT OCCASION.

If however your party is prepared to act in the national interest and rid this country of the political bacteria that is the Fianna Fail party, you will be welcomed at this house and assured of my vote. You are welcome to bring this e-mail with you to my door on the next occasion should your party do the right thing by the Irish people and pull the plug on this spectacle next saturday.

Yours sincerely,

XXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX.

av8rirl · 07-10-2009 5:50pm

Perhaps that could be used as a template for correspondence with everyones local Green TD/Senator/Councillor... As I mentioned in another thread, all their contact details are at: http://www.greenparty.ie/en/people

Use the details to email or text your local Green representative if you have a desire to see FF helped out at the weekend...

And if the Greens do it... then I say fair play to them and they'll probably get a vote from me!

Darragh29 · 07-10-2009 5:57pm

av8rirl wrote: »

Perhaps that could be used as a template for correspondence with everyones local Green TD/Senator/Councillor... As I mentioned in another thread, all their contact details are at: http://www.greenparty.ie/en/people

Use the details to email or text your local Green representative if you have a desire to see FF helped out at the weekend...

And if the Greens do it... then I say fair play to them and they'll probably get a vote from me!

I think what the Green Party needs now is support. They must fear that if they pull the plug on Saturday, that no distinction will be made between Fianna Fail and themselves at the ballot box in the weeks ahead.

We are now well on the road to a serious and critical hiding with Cowen and Coughlan running this country.

I think the Greens need to know that if they pull the plug on this absolute spectacle, then as far as I'm concerned, they will have done the right thing and are re-electable.

Noreen1 · 07-10-2009 6:40pm

If the Greens don't pull the plug at the weekend, there will be no point in them trying to persuade the public that they are a party with ideals - apart from the ideal of maintaining power.

They know full well that the electorate want FF out.
They also know that at this point, they are the only people in the country who can get them out.
If they decide to support the current inept administration, I for one will certainly use my vote to punish them at the first possible opportunity.

The reality of the situation is, no-one can pursue a "Green" policy, unless they have the finances to pay for it. A majority of voters clearly do not believe that the current Government has the ability to manage our finances. Failure to recognise that fact at the weekend will almost undoubtedly result in voter frustration being turned on the Green Party.

I can almost hear it now:
"Aye, they thought saving a tree/animal was more important than me losing my house!"

People who are in danger of losing the basics required for survival will put economic essentials before ideals - If you accept that the swing vote in the Lisbon 2 referendum was because of the economy, then you need no further proof.

Just my opinion, for what it's worth.

Noreen

Biggins · 07-10-2009 6:42pm

Noreen1 wrote: »

If the Greens don't pull the plug at the weekend, ...
Just my opinion, for what it's worth.

Noreen

Well said.

av8rirl · 07-10-2009 6:47pm

Darragh29 wrote: »

I think what the Green Party needs now is support. They must fear that if they pull the plug on Saturday, that no distinction will be made between Fianna Fail and themselves at the ballot box in the weeks ahead.

We are now well on the road to a serious and critical hiding with Cowen and Coughlan running this country.

I think the Greens need to know that if they pull the plug on this absolute spectacle, then as far as I'm concerned, they will have done the right thing and are re-electable.

I'm no Green tree hugger... if anything I'd have my policies more in line with FF...

But if the Greens take FF out of government this weekend, then they should definitely be re-electable... this may be the one chance that they'll have during this government term to be seen to do the decent thing. If they don't do it now... then the party will be no-more after the next GE!

So Greens take note... this is your chance to shine!

The Greens - will they bolt?

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