Lisbon - a fraudulent referendum?

Kama

Surge in postal vote registration without requests, inappropriate issuing of voting cards, ballot boxes walking out of Cork Town Hall, and unsealed boxes are the main ones I've heard thrown around.

The critical point, hardly helped by the tinfoil-and-lizards and continued bitter partisanship, is that without confidence in the voting system, chain of custody etc, democracy loses what scant legitimacy it currently appears to enjoy.

Certainty that each vote counts (as opposed to the Garda statement to Fiachra O'Luain) is indispensible. Given our standards of political corruption in this country, ballot fraud doesn't seem that unbelievable to many.

Epic Tissue

Sam Vimes wrote: »

I've never been asked for ID, most people aren't. It only becomes an issue when the vote doesn't go the way certain people want

It went the way I wanted. There is room for discussion here you know, it's not after hours.

Scofflaw

dresden8 wrote: »

I'm a solid no and I was asked for ID.

Much ado about nothing.

And while it's true the electoral register is a mess, it's generally always a mess.

It was certainly a mess at the general election in 2007, although I seem to recall there were plans to tidy it up.

Of course, any such mess would have been far more important in the first referendum, given the much narrower margin. I don't recall all these concerns getting such an airing at the time, but perhaps "respect the vote" means different things to different people.

cordially,
Scofflaw

K-9

Kama wrote: »

ballot boxes walking out of Cork Town Hall

In fairness all we seem to have for this is a Youtube video and a poor one at that.

dresden8

Scofflaw wrote: »

It was certainly a mess at the general election in 2007, although I seem to recall there were plans to tidy it up.

Of course, any such mess would have been far more important in the first referendum, given the much narrower margin. I don't recall all these concerns getting such an airing at the time, but perhaps "respect the vote" means different things to different people.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Agreed.

While we're diametrically opposed on Lisbon I don't think there's any reason to suggest it was a crooked count.

As to why people voted differently I'm sure we'll never agree, but I'm sure we can agree that they did indeed vote differently.

Odilon Redon

The result of a referendum can only be overturned by a successful petition to the High Court under the Referendum Act 1994 made within 7 days of publication of the result in Iris Oifiguil. The grounds are set out in section 42: http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/1994/en/act/pub/0012/sec0042.html#zza12y1994s42

An online petition won't have any legal effect whatsoever. Objectors should follow the legal procedures or else fold their tents.

Scofflaw

dresden8 wrote: »

Agreed.

While we're diametrically opposed on Lisbon I don't think there's any reason to suggest it was a crooked count.

As to why people voted differently I'm sure we'll never agree, but I'm sure we can agree that they did indeed vote differently.

Yes - the problem is, I think, that some people on the No side had really convinced themselves that a second No was the inevitable and correct outcome.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Kama

To clarify: I think the vote, without much of a doubt, was a Yes.

I also consider that a degree of fraud is almost inevitable; I've never known a game where people didn't try and cheat. All the more reason to be assured of proper procedure and oversight. If any complaints are thrown off as 'tinfoil lunatic', it doesn't give me much confidence tbqfh, we're hardly devoid of corruption as a country.

As to the youtube, I've yet to hear a good reason for ballotboxes wandering off.

K-9

Kama wrote: »

As to the youtube, I've yet to hear a good reason for ballotboxes wandering off.

But it's Youtube. Come on!

The Electoral list needs to be cleaned up.

Think we all agree on that, Yes or No voters, Yes vote this time, No vote last time.

Scofflaw

Kama wrote: »

To clarify: I think the vote, without much of a doubt, was a Yes.

I also consider that a degree of fraud is almost inevitable; I've never known a game where people didn't try and cheat. All the more reason to be assured of proper procedure and oversight. If any complaints are thrown off as 'tinfoil lunatic', it doesn't give me much confidence tbqfh, we're hardly devoid of corruption as a country.

As to the youtube, I've yet to hear a good reason for ballotboxes wandering off.

Ad I've yet to see any proof that the video is even what it purports to be, and taken at the time it claims to have been taken. One man comes out with one box, empty by the look of it, no attempt at concealment, not in any more hurry than any of the other people also leaving the count centre. On top of this piece of non-evidence a positive mountain of supposition is being constructed.

I'm sorry, but in the week before the vote too many people on the No side were clearly pre-charting the idea of voting fraud as a compensatory mechanism for adjusting to a defeat they weren't prepared to admit to at that point. This video is being neatly slotted into the necessary psychological space, in exactly the same way as other CT evidence is.

cordially,
Scofflaw

meglome

Scofflaw wrote: »

Ad I've yet to see any proof that the video is even what it purports to be, and taken at the time it claims to have been taken. One man comes out with one box, empty by the look of it, no attempt at concealment, not in any more hurry than any of the other people also leaving the count centre. On top of this piece of non-evidence a positive mountain of supposition is being constructed.

I'm sorry, but in the week before the vote too many people on the No side were clearly pre-charting the idea of voting fraud as a compensatory mechanism for adjusting to a defeat they weren't prepared to admit to at that point. This video is being neatly slotted into the necessary psychological space, in exactly the same way as other CT evidence is.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I agree the idea of fraud has been brewing in the conspiracy theory's forum for a bit now. Initially it was pure speculation until the mysterious box carrying video appeared on youtube. While it would be impossible to swear the vote is 100% legitimate the level of fraud needed to swing the vote by such a margin would make it utterly implausible for it to happen.

seamus

Kama wrote: »

As to the youtube, I've yet to hear a good reason for ballotboxes wandering off.

If the video is exactly what it purports to be Kama, then why has not a single major media outlet picked up on it and published it? The media are in no way biased - they just love a scandal, regardless of what it may or may not do. So if there was any credibility in this at all, do you not think the british rags at least would be plastering it up everywhere?

Irish and Proud

derry wrote: »

Petition to have the Lisbon results removed due to rigging the vote and they have applied to make criminal case

http://www.gopetition.com/online/31224.html a petition has been set up, if you suspect lisbon was rigged please sign it.

They outline all the ways the yes vote was done with all methods of stuffing the ballot boxxes with yes votes

Derry

<MOD>This thread has been reopened as a thread for claims that the Lisbon Treaty vote was rigged - include your petitions, Youtube videos, etc here.</MOD>

I signed the petition a few days ago amid concerns relating to the scale of the YES victory - it was a lot more than the 60-40% predicted outcome, in fact, it was enough to secure a 7% swing which would overturn the NO vote had people voted the same way as in the first referendum.

Now, I only saw the video yesterday and was quite shocked! OK, the video proves nothing in relation to actual rigging taking place, but what it seems to prove is that there was a total lack of security in the counting centre in Cork. It seems clear that a rigging operation was quite possible there. Also, no one knows what was in the box that the guy went off with - it could be totally innocent for all we know. However, the point is that if the guy could go off with a box in the absence of any restriction (or so it seems anyway), what would stop anyone from taking boxes away for fraudulent purposes? Again, the video wasn't crisp clear, but to me, it showed enough to raise serious concerns.

About the papers not capitalising on the video - was it not the papers that were screaming for a YES vote in the hours running up to the referendum. Whatever opinion people may have, in light of the above this referendum may be illegal - even if the YES vote was 67%.

Regards!

Sam Vimes

Irish and Proud wrote: »

I sign the petition a few days ago amid concerns relating to the scale of the YES victory - it was a lot more than the 60-40% predicted outcome, in fact, it was enough to secure a 7% swing which would overturn the NO vote had people voted the same way as in the first referendum.

Now, I only saw the video yesterday and was quite shocked! OK, the video proves nothing in relation to actual rigging taking place, but what it seems to prove is that there was a total lack of security in the counting centre in Cork. It seems clear that a rigging operation was quite possible there. Also, no one knows what was in the box that the guy went off with - it could be totally innocent for all we know. However, the point is that if the guy could go off with a box in the absence of any restriction (or so it seems anyway), what would stop anyone from taking boxes away for fraudulent purposes? Again, the video wasn't crisp clear, but to me, it showed enough to raise serious concerns.

About the papers not capitalising on the video - was it not the papers that were screaming for a YES vote in the hours running up to the referendum. Whatever opinion people may have, in light of the above this referendum may be illegal - even if the YES vote was 67%.

Regards!

Right so your basis for claiming that it's an illegal referendum is a single video of a guy unknown doing something unknown with a ballet box which indicates that security was low in one counting centre. I'd be more than prepared to accept that security was low in most counting centres as I'm sure it has been in every counting centre in the history of the Irish state. Do you have anything more than "security appears to have been low" to suggest that there was massive nationwide rigging going on?

edit: and since security was almost certainly just as low for the last referendum should we investigate that too or is that ok because that one got the result you wanted?

Irish and Proud

Sam Vimes wrote: »

Right so your basis for claiming that it's an illegal referendum is a single video of a guy unknown doing something unknown with a ballet box which indicates that security was low in one counting centre. I'd be more than prepared to accept that security was low in most counting centres as I'm sure it has been in every counting centre in the history of the Irish state. Do you have anything more than "security appears to have been low" to suggest that there was massive nationwide rigging going on?

edit: and since security was almost certainly just as low for the last referendum should we investigate that too or is that ok because that one got the result you wanted?

OK Mate, can you say right here, right now, that the referendum was carried out in accordance with the Law - including the Law of both this state and the EU???

I'm waiting!

Sam Vimes

Irish and Proud wrote: »

OK Mate, can you say right here, right now, that the referendum was carried out in accordance with the Law - including the Law of both this state and the EU???

I'm waiting!

I'm not making any claim. You're trying to suggest that it was illegal so the burden of proof is on you. Can you say right here, right now, that the referendum was not carried out in accordance with the Law - including the Law of both this state and the EU???

No, of course you can't you're just spreading FUD

seamus

Irish and Proud wrote: »

OK Mate, can you say right here, right now, that the referendum was carried out in accordance with the Law - including the Law of both this state and the EU???

Can you say with certainty, right here, right now, that the referendum which established the constitution of Ireland in 1937 was carried out in full accordance with the law? Quickly, before I go and declare 70 years of legislation and referenda null and void!

Neamhshuntasach

One thing which was a load of bollix was me and a shít load of people being sent to Swords to vote when i live in Finglas South. It would have been big no area the last time and most of the people i talked to didn't vote because they had no car and there isn't any direct buses. Not to mention our regular polling station is less than 5 minutes walk away. I made a complaint and told it seems to be a mix up all right. Not to mention i got my polling card the day before so it was too late to change. Wonder if that was just my area or how many places that happened to. Not creating a conspiracy of it. Just stating that if they want people to vote they sure made it difficult for some people.

meglome

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

One thing which was a load of bollix was me and a shít load of people being sent to Swords to vote when i live in Finglas South. It would have been big no area the last time and most of the people i talked to didn't vote because they had no car and there isn't any direct buses. Not to mention our regular polling station is less than 5 minutes walk away. I made a complaint and told it seems to be a mix up all right. Not to mention i got my polling card the day before so it was too late to change. Wonder if that was just my area or how many places that happened to. Not creating a conspiracy of it. Just stating that if they want people to vote they sure made it difficult for some people.

You probably also should have complained when the Government had the last genaral election on a Thursday to make sure as many students as possible wouldn't be able to vote against them. Very working class areas of Dublin tend to have low turn-outs no matter what, people love to complain but can't be bothered to do anything about it.

[Edit:]

There was a guy on boards who's polling station was a long distance away so instead of saying I can't vote as I can't get there he rang up all the political party's and got one of them to drive him to the polling station. He's not the only person I've seen do this on boards either. There is always a way.

Scofflaw

A minor point to add to the debate here - is the level of the No vote in the second referendum credible? I would say yes - here's the proportion of the electorate that votes No, for each EU referendum:

Treaty|Year|Electorate|No vote|No as % of electorate
Accession|1973|1,783,604|211,891| 11.88%
SEA|1987|2,461,790|324,977| 13.2%
Maastricht|1992|2,542,840|448,655| 17.64%
Amsterdam|1998|2,747,088|578,070| 21.04%
Nice 1|2001|2,867,960|529,478| 18.46%
Nice 2|2002|2,923,918|534,887| 18.29%
Lisbon 1|2008|3,051,278|862,415| 28.26%
Lisbon 2|2009|3,078,132|594,606| 19.32%

What's historically unusual is not the second vote, but the first - the No side picked up a soft No half the size of the usual No brigade. The second referendum, on the other hand, represents simply the usual position - with a No vote of c. 20% of the electorate, and the result dependent almost entirely on how motivated the Yes vote is.

Another interesting point from that, by the way, is that the core No vote doesn't appear to have changed that much over the last 20 years - the initial rise in opposition took place around the end of the Eighties.

In case of confusion, note that the % given is the No vote as a percentage of the total electorate - that is, of everyone who was entitled to vote in the referendum, whether they voted or not.

cordially,
Scofflaw

View

Irish and Proud wrote: »

OK Mate, can you say right here, right now, that the referendum was carried out in accordance with the Law - including the Law of both this state and the EU???

I'm waiting!

If you'd a problem with the referendum, you had the opportunity to lodge an official complaint with the courts about it. Obviously, you don't have much confidence in your "complaint" since you didn't bother doing so...

Kama

I'm wondering, apropos of compaints and how they are handled her, whether anyone has the skinny on Fiachra O'Luains complaint back in the Ganley recheck? O'Luain basically seems to allege his compaint was stonewalled, the Garda in charge of investigating being the Garda in charge of the count originally.

I've been trying to find out to no avail. If anyone knows the details I'd appreciate it, pm if like.

ei.sdraob

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/courts/court-rejects-lisbon-treaty-challenge-1911555.html

A BID to have the Lisbon Treaty declared null and void was dismissed by the High Court yesterday.

The court ruled the arguments put forward by four citizens were political, not legal.

Four separate applications for judicial reviews were brought by Harry Rea of Blarney Road Co Cork, Nora Bennis, North Circular Road, Limerick, Mark McCrystal, Swords Road, Dublin, and Richard Behal, Killarney, Co Kerry. All four made their applications without solicitors or barristers.

Mr Justice Sean Ryan dismissed their applications to seek to challenge the constitutionality of the 28th Amendment to the Constitution Bill 2009, brought about as a result of the recent 'Yes' vote. Mr Justice Ryan said "no compelling arguments" had been made out in the applications.

The four claimed the Government had ratified the treaty without amending the Constitution and that the result was unsafe.

- Tim Healy

Irish Independent

so there goes that bid we heard about before

molloyjh

Sam Vimes wrote: »

I've never been asked for ID, most people aren't. It only becomes an issue when the vote doesn't go the way certain people want

Really? I've always been asked.

Sam Vimes

molloyjh wrote: »

Really? I've always been asked.

Really. They don't ask everyone nor do they have to

Scofflaw

Sam Vimes wrote: »

Really. They don't ask everyone nor do they have to

True - I've sometimes been asked (usually when I've forgotten my polling card), and sometimes not.

cordially,
Scofflaw

P. Breathnach

Scofflaw wrote: »

True - I've sometimes been asked (usually when I've forgotten my polling card), and sometimes not.

I have not been asked for my polling card or ID since I moved to my current home many years ago. People in rural areas tend to know one another, and I am greeted by name in the polling station.

Scofflaw

P. Breathnach wrote: »

I have not been asked for my polling card or ID since I moved to my current home many years ago. People in rural areas tend to know one another, and I am greeted by name in the polling station.

It's pretty much that way for me now in DSE, because it's the same people manning the polling stations each time, and what with one thing and another, we've all been in and out of polling stations quite a lot over the last couple of years...

cordially,
Scofflaw

derry

I been doing leg work and turning up more and teamed up with a few others who have some more facts on more issues at polling stations.
Hopefully there does exist some way that some group can bring a successful case in court against the referendum and get it scrapped.

As for CT its a no brainer its official they put fluoride in the water and declare they do and tell you darn right lies its good for your teeth but don't mention it accumulates and kills you .With a regime that is happy to kill you its no big deal to stuff the ballot boxes .

Also Pravda the Russian newspaper on Friday said it abundantly clear that the referendum was fixed and stuffed with yes votes.
http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/109718-0/
So now your going to say the Russians have a CT complex.Well the good news is they got bucket loads of big nukes and will probably reprogram a few after the Lisbon is enacted to take out the now not neutral ROI.If the Russians get too CT skaty they can alway let of their tensions with a first strike and shaft the other bastard before he shafts you logic

So we can take our yes vote and stick it in our pipe and smoke it as we turn into a molten nuclear wasteland for joining the losing side

Derry

oscarBravo

Derry, this is your only warning: keep that sort of post in CT where it belongs. If you have something factual to contribute, backed up by credible sources, post it. If all you have is idle ranting, keep it to yourself.