Secret Deal :United Ireland

b12mearse

My grandfather is convinced there is a secret deal on a United Ireland. He sees the Good Friday Agreement as a normalization policy before a complete withdrawal of British troops and then a final transition of government. I myself find it hard to believe but could have a element of truth to it. What do you people think?

Euro_Kraut

I think that Unionists within the North will have the final say regardless of any deal reached between London and Dublin.

London has no great desire to hold on to the North, but plenty of people there seems keen to stay. While that situation continues there will be no substantive change to the status of the North, imo.

DoireNod

Does your grandfather have any reasonable grounds for this conviction? What makes him believe that there is a secret deal?

mike65

I think you possibly intended to post this in Conspiracy Theories forum but were too scared to go in there!

b12mearse

No he doesnt thats why i'm asking you guys.
imo i think the brits would rather hand over n. ireland than enter another phase of troubles.

murphaph

If they find oil off the west coast of Scotland/north coast of Ireland the British won't be too keen on getting rid of it.

OS119

change it to 'secret hope (not so secret...?) of the British Govt that the two tribes would get so engrossed in local government that the unionists wouldn't notice them fcuking off sharpish' and he might be right...

sadly though, i didn't think thats going to work. pity...

maybe the Irish Govt had the opposite plan - give the Shinners up north policing and town planning and hope they don't notice that they aren't wanted in the RoI...

dlofnep

There's nothing secret about the process, but certain elements within the Unionist community fear the possibilities that exist with it - Check out the TUV paper on it.

The GFA is a step towards Unification, in comparison to what was in place before.

Biggins

murphaph wrote: »

If they find oil off the west coast of Scotland/north coast of Ireland the British won't be too keen on getting rid of it.

Well there is apparently HUGE oil resources off, under and around Rockall.
Maybe thats why there is such a clamour of claim for what is just a basically, a large rock sticking up out of the sea!

Can't see the British giving that up easily alone (even though its ours !).

DoireNod

b12mearse wrote: »

No he doesnt thats why i'm asking you guys.
imo i think the brits would rather hand over n. ireland than enter another phase of troubles.

I don't know if there's a secret deal per se. The Good Friday Agreement can be seen as paving the way for a united Ireland (then again, it's also seen as strengthening the unionist veto), so there's no secrecy surrounding the fact that the U.K. wishes to get rid of the North, but hey, who knows? There could be countless secret pacts and dealings among different political factions.

NedTermo

Very interesting
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plan_W

seamus

It's OK, we'll all be part of an EU superstate soon enough, so it won't matter any longer.

Seriously though, it's not beyond the realms of possibility - certainly I'm sure many groups involved in the GFA saw that as a stepping stone to a 32-county republic.

The Irish Government's main concern with NI should be sectarian violence. If NI left the UK and joined ROI, we would almost certainly see a massive eruption of sectarian violence from the Unionists and Loyalists, countered by a resurgence of IRA-like militias. They would be backed up by staunch Unionists from the UK mainland who are enraged that the "Empire" has lost some of its land.

However, unlike the previous troubles, the Irish government wouldn't have the resources to defend either NI or ROI from attack by militias. It's likely we'd end up seeing UN/EU peacekeepers having to patrol the streets of Belfast & Dublin during attacks/emergencies. Our economy would collapse as military spending shoots through the roof, consumer confidence is decimated and investment completely dries up.

On the flipside, it's often been said that NI is a black hole for money, but in the absence of any trouble, you have a well-positioned "state" with an educated population, low cost of living, and fantastic transport links to the EU. If the ROI could take ownership of NI, with the acceptance all all interested parties, it could do wonders for our economy.

ih8northsiders

in a hearbeat the british would hand back the north. they would have done 80 years ago. ireland is a meanginless nation to them.

Tableman

in a hearbeat the british would hand back the north. they would have done 80 years ago.

So why didnt they do it 80 years ago?

ih8northsiders

the unionists. they didn't want to turn their back on them after world war 1(they had been very helpful in the war effort)

even griffith(was it?) said that they(lloyd george, churchill) had no loyalty to ulster

the brits werent some evil people, they knew that a united ireland was the right thing, but 200 years ago thousands of british were settled up there and it has left a big mark. and makes unification impossible. *notice i don't say reunification because ireland has never been united*

Tableman

the unionists. they didn't want to turn their back on them after world war 1(they had been very helpful in the war effort)

Exactly, they had a reason not to hand it back so they didnt hand it back!

DoireNod

ih8northsiders wrote: »

*notice i don't say reunification because ireland has never been united*

Ireland was united.

It was known as the Kingdom of Ireland and it used to be a part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland.

Many people will assert the claim that it was vaguely united under the Ard Rí na hÉireann too, but it's hard to say whether that's true.

major bill

b12mearse wrote: »

My grandfather is convinced there is a secret deal on a United Ireland. He sees the Good Friday Agreement as a normalization policy before a complete withdrawal of British troops and then a final transition of government. I myself find it hard to believe but could have a element of truth to it. What do you people think?

quite a few people i know think this or something like it. i have always found it strange that only 11 years after omagh and 20 odd years after brutal killings that we now see a northen irish government consisting of martin mcguinness, rev ian paisley, gerry adams etc sitting side by side and in some pictures joking with each other. yes its good and they have shown people on the two differant sides can live side by side in peace but it makes ye wonder:cool:

kenco

What ever plans are in place or not are a long way off!

Ask anyone from either side if they want a Utd Ireland and deep down it would be no and why? The economy. Why become part of state with brutal roads, dire public transport and appaling health care when you have some of the beat of these and more? Taking on the North would likely bankrupt this state Nama or not. Its a long way off and will only happen when all parties feel there is something beneficial in it for them.

During the height of the Celtic Tiger there was reasonably hush hush dinner in Dublin where Unionist and Republication Politicos met the high and mighty of Industry and Finance in Ireland. I dont have a reference to it but it was broken by the Tribune I believe and it was very business like and pally and you know there was no discussion around the Battle of the Boyne at that table....

DoireNod

kenco wrote: »

What ever plans are in place or not are a long way off!

Ask anyone from either side if they want a Utd Ireland and deep down it would be no and why? The economy. Why become part of state with brutal roads, dire public transport and appaling health care when you have some of the beat of these and more? Taking on the North would likely bankrupt this state Nama or not. Its a long way off and will only happen when all parties feel there is something beneficial in it for them.

I want a united Ireland and I reject the notion that the economy is that big of a stumbling block. Sure, there will likely be economic implications initially, but it's not as simple as Dublin simply being handed over the 6 counties. There would be a process in place to facilitate a smooth economic unification and the British government will have as much a part to play in that as the Irish government. In the long term, I think unification will have positive economic benefits.

During the height of the Celtic Tiger there was reasonably hush hush dinner in Dublin where Unionist and Republication Politicos met the high and mighty of Industry and Finance in Ireland. I dont have a reference to it but it was broken by the Tribune I believe and it was very business like and pally and you know there was no discussion around the Battle of the Boyne at that table....

Money talks, sure.

kenco

DoireNod wrote: »

In the long term, I think unification will have positive economic benefits.


Money talks, sure.

Agreed!

However unless the economic benefits are guarenteed via Brussels, New York, Moscow, etc it is not viable. Who really cares if Ireland is Utd in a Federal Europe?