Töpher's Log

Töpher

(Hope this is alright with the mods...)

I've decided to start my own thread for posting my random thinkings in as I'm aware I was posting lots of overly long posts in the fantastic and epic thread here.

I'm going to post up any bets I'm making that I'm pretty confident about along with (hopefully) some reasonably sound evidence for the pick, and will keep a running track of the main bets (I'll ignore the small bit-parts that occasionally crop up).

I'm aware that I'm highly unlikely to keep up the current strike-rate (that I'm pretty pleased with! ), but I think it'll be useful for me to have the reasoning behind the bets and the bets themselves in one place as I currently track the bets but they're included with others that I wouldn't always read as much into, and I don't keep track of why I picked a selection. Also, writing up my thinkings has helped me decide not to make one or two bets as it's completely different re-reading reasoning to thinking about it in your head and I feel that adding restraint can only be a good thing in the long run.

I'm going to stop rambling and post up the only open bet I have for the moment.

Töpher wrote: »

Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86

I suppose this one isn't too much of a surprise, given that a draw will see Italy top the group, and leave Ireland only needing a solitary point from the home match with Montenegro to guarantee second place (although they'd probably still be favourites for the second place with a loss tonight given that the misfiring Bulgarians, currently 5 points adrift, are away to Cyprus tonight and at home to Georgia on the final day).

Neither team has lost a match so far in the qualifying group, and my thinking is that tonight will see that continue as the teams play out a relatively event free game, with both teams settling for a point before the match even kicks off.

Neither team has been on great goal-scoring form in this campaign, but the Italians are immense at the back, only conceeding 3 goals from the 8 matches, and not conceeding on the road since the opening match of the campaign, and given how poor Ireland are up front I don't see why that should change. I reckon this match will be played out almost entirely in the midfield, with Italy quite happy to let their midfield sit deep, only pressuring Ireland on the ball as they push for the final third.

I've also stuck a few squid on the final score being 0-0 @ 6.6 on Betfair, which I'd be quietly confident over barring a goalkeeping catastrophe (but thats one department where both sides are blessed with genuine quality).

And the current log of results; I've taken any bets I could find from myself with any reasoning listed from the last while in the aforementioned thread:

(0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
(0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
(2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
(1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
(2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
(0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
(3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
(1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Töpher

France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 goals @ 5.1

I'm not sure how or why I ended up noticing the odds for this, but I'm glad I did and will be taking a small risk on it. It's somewhat optimistic, but would be nice if it came in.

Everyone knows the French team is full of quality, but for some reason (*cough* Domenech *cough*) under perform in every single match, seemingly without exception for quite a while now.

I found it quite surprising to discover that France have not scored more than one goal in a match, competitive or otherwise, for an entire year! Obviously I was aware they weren't playing well, but still not losing. What's possibly slightly more interesting is that none of these matches have reached overs, pretty solid 1-0 and 1-1's across the board (for a year!), including the reverse fixture of this match, and against the likes of Austria, Romania and Lithuania.

It seems odd to think that the likes of Anelka and Benzema, etc, could struggle to whip up cricket scores against the traditional whipping boys that the Faroes are, but 'Rasher' Kerr has been working his magic (they won last time out, there's surely no other word for it?) and the Faroes now appear to be more organised and well drilled than under previous regimes and the 5-0 scorelines of old may well soon be distant memories for them. Results such as 'only' losing by 2 goals to table toppers Serbia, and by one to the French, are surely an indication of the better defensive setup they are now employing - since Kerr took over they've conceeded more than 2 once, away to a seemingly better-than-recent-years Austria (3-1).

It's possible for France to qualify automatically, but that requires Serbia losing not only at home to Romania, but also away to Lithuania, both pretty unlikely scenarios. My thinking is that France will win this, but as ever they will struggle against an organised defensive team. They're still not guaranteed second place, but their sole rivals for that are Austria, who France play at home on the final day, and so I wouldn't be surprised to see the French settle for a one goal victory here with one eye on next Wednesday.

I've also, perhaps in blind optimism and delirium, put the Betfair minimum of €2 on the draw @ 75.0 :pac: A 0-0 or 1-1 would be feckin' lovely! :eek:

Töpher

Töpher wrote: »

Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86

FT: 2-2 :pac:

Töpher wrote: »

France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 goals @ 5.1

FT: 5-0 (I knew I was being optimistic with the unders, but... :eek:)

And the updated log (most recent on the top);

(2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
(5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 goals @ 5.10
(0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
(0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
(2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
(1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
(2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
(0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
(3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
(1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08[/QUOTE]

srmufc

Did you call overs in Ecuador v Uruguay? Someone did and 'twas a good 'un.

The Al Lad

Can you start doing like 4 or 5 team accum's,

you seem to be hittin the nail on the head with your predictions

Maybe do like your top 4 bets for the weekend or so

Just a thought

Us lower degenerates would be forever grateful ... haha

Töpher

srmufc wrote: »

Did you call overs in Ecuador v Uruguay? Someone did and 'twas a good 'un.

Wasn't me, but whoever t'was is quids in!

The Al Lad wrote: »

Can you start doing like 4 or 5 team accum's

I don't tend to look too far ahead when thinking of matches, but I'll try to put up a days picks together if I think I'll be hitting more than one, which might see two or three getting looked at.

Töpher

Spain; Segunda Division; 18.00; Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 goals @ 2.02

No points for originality on this one, but I reckon with the odds available it's worth a punt.

Betis have been playing some good football so far this season, and will be desperate to keep racking up the points in search of automatic promotion, and a win tonight (@ 1.5, of which I am also having a small piece) could potentially see them joint top on 14 points after 7 matches (depending on the results from the other 2 matches).

So far this season has seen them P6 W3 D2 L1, of which the home matches were P3 W2 D1 L0. Of these 6 matches, 5 have reached overs (3 of these by the hour mark). The only match failing to reach 3+ goals was the 0-0 at home with Cartagena (which isn't too surprising given that Cartagena are doing very well of late, have kept clean sheets in 4 of their 6 matches [while not scoring too many], and Betis had 2 men sent off during the match, so it really was a case of both teams just closing the door). The other two home matches both saw Betis win 3-0. Sergio Garcia and Pavone have been hitting the back of the net with some regularity so far this season, and I'm hopeful they'll cause Union problems.

Real Union were promoted through the playoffs from Segunda B at the end of last season, and have had the sort of start they'll no doubt be content enough with, picking up 7 points from 6 matches, but losing 2 of their 3 away matches. It's worth noting that only their last match reached overs, but this was preceeded by three two goal matches, and I fancy Betis to go hunting early in front of their home fans following the previously mentioned draw with Cartagena, which could open the floodgates at both ends (although Betis have been solid at the back so far at home this season, the amount of goals shipped on the road [6 in 3 matches] show up some possible frailties in the defence).

I don't doubt that Real Union will come and play for the draw, but if either side make a breakthrough before half time this will be looking nice I think.

Seanohea

I think its great you are putting up detailed reasons for your tips, too many football tips or selections i see have very little reasoning behind them if at all. At least whats shown is you really research in detail and look at statistics etc. I hope u do well. Definetley a thread i'll keep an eye on

Former Great

Töpher wrote: »

Spain; Segunda Division; 18.00; Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 goals @ 2.02

No points for originality on this one, but I reckon with the odds available it's worth a punt.

Betis have been playing some good football so far this season, and will be desperate to keep racking up the points in search of automatic promotion, and a win tonight (@ 1.5, of which I am also having a small piece) could potentially see them joint top on 14 points after 7 matches (depending on the results from the other 2 matches).

So far this season has seen them P6 W3 D2 L1, of which the home matches were P3 W2 D1 L0. Of these 6 matches, 5 have reached overs (3 of these by the hour mark). The only match failing to reach 3+ goals was the 0-0 at home with Cartagena (which isn't too surprising given that Cartagena are doing very well of late, have kept clean sheets in 4 of their 6 matches [while not scoring too many], and Betis had 2 men sent off during the match, so it really was a case of both teams just closing the door). The other two home matches both saw Betis win 3-0. Sergio Garcia and Pavone have been hitting the back of the net with some regularity so far this season, and I'm hopeful they'll cause Union problems.

Real Union were promoted through the playoffs from Segunda B at the end of last season, and have had the sort of start they'll no doubt be content enough with, picking up 7 points from 6 matches, but losing 2 of their 3 away matches. It's worth noting that only their last match reached overs, but this was preceeded by three two goal matches, and I fancy Betis to go hunting early in front of their home fans following the previously mentioned draw with Cartagena, which could open the floodgates at both ends (although Betis have been solid at the back so far at home this season, the amount of goals shipped on the road [6 in 3 matches] show up some possible frailties in the defence).

I don't doubt that Real Union will come and play for the draw, but if either side make a breakthrough before half time this will be looking nice I think.

Your doin well so far topher ,i take it youve an account with betfair , i just opened one recently and did a bank transfer to lodge money into d account thursday..Was just goin through the betfair website earlier and seen they want proof of age,will i have to send them this before i can start betting with money in my account..Also does commision ever go over 5% .. i would of asked this on the betfair thread but doesnt seem to be many posting ..Would be delighted if you bcould help

Töpher

Spain; Segunda Division; 20.00; Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82

Fourth away to 13th tonight, and the odds on an away win are quite high, but I'm hedging my bets and going for this asian handicap as a double chance on the away side.

As mentioned in a previous post, Cartagena have had 4 clean sheets from 6 league matches so far this season, only conceeding 2 goals in total so far this season (once at home, and once away). Cadiz meanwhile have had 3 clean sheets from 6, and not conceded any more than 1 in a match so far - any of their wins were 1-0, and only 1 match this season involving them has had over 1.5 goals (a 1-1 away to Levante).

Cartagena's away form reads P3 W1 D2 L0 (F2 A1), whilst Cadiz's home form reads P3 W1 D1 L1 (F1 A1), with the most recent result being a 1-0 win over fellow mid-tablers Recreativo Huelva (who had to play the entire second half a man down, and only conceded around the hour mark).

Cartagena are yet to lose this season, while despite the tight defence Cadiz have picked up zero points twice. I fancy Cartagena to not lose this match, but given their seeming inadequacies in front of goal, I'm reluctant to bet on them outright, and so the odds on the double chance seem fantastic.

This (hopefully!) promises to be a low scoring affair (under 2.5 is currently @ 1.59 :eek:), as both teams appear to have pretty solid defences with somewhat misfiring forward lines, so I've also a sneaky little bet on the 0-0 scoreline @ 8.80 on Betfair.

Töpher

Former Great wrote: »

Your doin well so far topher ,i take it youve an account with betfair , i just opened one recently and did a bank transfer to lodge money into d account thursday..Was just goin through the betfair website earlier and seen they want proof of age,will i have to send them this before i can start betting with money in my account..Also does commision ever go over 5% .. i would of asked this on the betfair thread but doesnt seem to be many posting ..Would be delighted if you bcould help

Cheers man . I think you can bet with them, but can't withdraw anything until you provide proof of age - I'm not 100% as I originally registered with a credit card. Commission is maxed at 5%, and if you end up staking considerable amounts it can be reduced (which is done automatically by their points system).

Töpher

Töpher wrote: »

Spain; Segunda Division; 18.00; Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 goals @ 2.02

FT: 1-1. Sick as a dog after watching that! Betis happy to sit back on a 1-0 lead until Union equalised with a few to go (after having an earlier equaliser ruled offside, and poor finishing with a few glorious chances). Betis then started pushing and had about three marvelous chances in stoppage time, Union's keeper's flailing ankle keeping the goals under 2.5 with about 30 seconds to go! :eek:

The red is starting to build...

(1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
(2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
(5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
(0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
(0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
(2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
(1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
(2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
(0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
(3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
(1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

mailburner

Töpher wrote: »

FT: 1-1. Sick as a dog after watching that! Betis happy to sit back on a 1-0 lead until Union equalised with a few to go (after having an earlier equaliser ruled offside, and poor finishing with a few glorious chances). Betis then started pushing and had about three marvelous chances in stoppage time, Union's keeper's flailing ankle keeping the goals under 2.5 with about 30 seconds to go! :eek:

The red is starting to build...

(1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
(2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
(5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
(0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
(0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
(2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
(1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
(2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
(0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
(3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
(1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

unlucky with that
ive been stopping everything lately and fc zwolle were
the only team ive picked from your lot lately
ive gone with cartagena at 1.9 so i hope to hell
i dont stop that one also
good luck

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

unlucky with that
ive been stopping everything lately and fc zwolle were
the only team ive picked from your lot lately
ive gone with cartagena at 1.9 so i hope to hell
i dont stop that one also
good luck

looking good
i might not stop this one 0-1

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

looking good
i might not stop this one 0-1

great stuff
cartagena 2 up

Töpher

And 0-3,

Former Great

Töpher wrote: »

And 0-3,

Topher any chance of a bit of advice , iv a comment posted on the page Tips from the football pro

mailburner

Töpher wrote: »

And 0-3,

well done
thats stopped my streak of losers

Töpher

Töpher wrote: »

Spain; Segunda Division; 20.00; Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82

FT: 1 - 3 :pac: Not quite the scoreline I was expecting, but a win's a win!

(1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
(1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
(2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
(5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
(0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
(0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
(2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
(1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
(2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
(0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
(3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
(1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Former Great wrote:

Topher any chance of a bit of advice , iv a comment posted on the page Tips from the football pro

About Argentina? I wouldn't know where to go with the Uraguay match, it's all beyond ridiculous with them at the moment!

Former Great

Former Great wrote: »

Your doin well so far topher ,i take it youve an account with betfair , i just opened one recently and did a bank transfer to lodge money into d account thursday..Was just goin through the betfair website earlier and seen they want proof of age,will i have to send them this before i can start betting with money in my account..Also does commision ever go over 5% .. i would of asked this on the betfair thread but doesnt seem to be many posting ..Would be delighted if you bcould help

Sorry topher the questions above is what i wanted you to help me with..

Former Great

Former Great wrote: »

Sorry topher the questions above is what i wanted you to help me with..

[EMAIL="S@hit"]S@hit[/EMAIL] sorry topher i only realised now that u answered them questions earlier , im asleep today.. I m not sure if the commision is automatically reduced though, from reading on there site today i think u need to send a copy of your drivers license and a recent bank statement before you qualify for reductions in commision..Betfairs Know Your Customer , this is what its known as

Töpher

Brazil; Serie A; 20.00; Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09

First away to 18th tonight. I'm gunning for Palmeiras in this match that is sure to be somewhat of a dogfight from the off. Both these teams need the points, for very different reasons. Palmeiras are closing in on the title for what would be their first title success in 15 years, and Nautico are struggling to avoid relegation to Serie B.

Typically, Brazillian teams are often great at picking up points at home, even the teams languishing at the bottom of the table will often have pretty reasonable home records, and Nautico are no exception, P14 W5 D4 L5 (Palmeira's for comparisson is P14 W9 D5 L0). That said, the wheels seem to have come off for Nautico at the moment, and their last 3 home matches have only seen them pick up a solitary point, although 2 of the matches were against opponents much higher up the table (then again, second place Sao Paulo managed to overturn a 1-0 defecit and win there, with each goal coming while they had less men on the pitch), and they've picked up 1 point from their last 5 games in total. They need to be picking up points to try and escape relegation (although they have 9 to play after tonight), but unfortunately for them it doesn't seem to be happening at the moment. Prior to their current run of form they won 4 in a row at home, which although impressive, shows that they also went seven home (and more away, remember they haven't won away, at all) matches with just 1 victory (which came on on the first day of the season) prior to this.

Palmeira's away form is nothing special, but I think would be considered decent enough for Brazil, P14 W6 D4 L4. They have won their last two on the road, and five of their last ten, which is pretty handy. They're on a decent run of form at the moment, having won 3 of their last 5 games (including 2 on the road), and turned around a 2-0 defecit at home to Avai in a shock 2-2 result in the last match (but hopefully the comeback will buoy the team). Their only defeat of the season by more than one goal was on the opening day, away to Internacional, so if they aren't to win it'll be close and shouldn't be by any ridiculous margins and would most likely end up a draw rather than a home win.

From what I can gather they're not playing as well as they are capable of at the moment, but are still picking up the points and hunting down the title. All champions need a degree of luck over the course of the season, and I expect them to do anything they have to to pick up the points here, as a win tonight would see them go 8 points clear with 9 to play, an opportunity they can't afford to miss.

I fully expect an away win tonight (@ 2.46), but to be able get over evens on the away win, with the security of half the stake being returned should the match end a draw, seems like great value to me.

The Al Lad

So your just going for an away win here ???

How do you get half the stake back ???

On paddy Power's it just says Win or WIn/Draw but the Win/Draw is not 2.09

Töpher

Ah sorry, this was an Asian Handicap on Betfair. Looking at Powers there they'd don't have much of a market available for this, and so you can't get anything back from them. The away win is @ 2.10, but it's just a normal bet so if they don't win you lose your stake.

Palmeiras & Draw @ 1.30 is probably as close as their market will let you get, which isn't great odds, but at least you'd still profit if it was a draw I guess. In all honesty, looking at their market, I think if it were me I'd opt out and skip it, there's no real value in it.

The Al Lad

Töpher wrote: »

Ah sorry, this was an Asian Handicap on Betfair. Looking at Powers there they'd don't have much of a market available for this, and so you can't get anything back from them. The away win is @ 2.10, but it's just a normal bet so if they don't win you lose your stake.

Palmeiras & Draw @ 1.30 is probably as close as their market will let you get, which isn't great odds, but at least you'd still profit if it was a draw I guess. In all honesty, looking at their market, I think if it were me I'd opt out and skip it, there's no real value in it.

Or else open an acc. on betfair :pac:

Töpher

True.

Quoted before I changed my comment, stuck it back to normal there! :pac: Still reckon the away win should be on, the A.H. is just a nice little bit of security to have.

mailburner

good luck with that topher
stuck at work and cannot access gambling sites unfortunately :mad:

Headshot

Nautico 1 up after 6mins

they probably have scored to soon

Töpher

Nautico put Palmeiras under alot of pressure in the first 15, and still look somewhat dangerous when they break forward, but Palmeiras have been turning the screw for last 15 or so and looking pretty dangerous.

Fingers crossed!

Stream

[edit]
:eek: 2-0, against the run of play, about a minute after 3 Palmeiras players failed to get onto a ball across the face of goal with the keeper beaten.

Headshot

not looking good for Palmeiras

Töpher

Fuppin' hell! Half an hour to go, 0-3 down! Woeful stuff.