Töpher's Log

Töpher

Töpher wrote: »

Brazil; Serie A; 20.00; Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09

FT: 3-0 :eek:

/me watches the wheels disappear into the distance as they fall off with style! :eek:

(3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
(1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
(1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
(2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
(5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
(0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
(0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
(2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
(1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
(2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
(0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
(3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
(1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Hello0909

any matches tomorro you have any tips for??

Töpher

Scotland; First Division; Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74

Raith (4th, 15pts) have started this season quite well, having been promoted from the Second Division; P8 W4 D3 L1. Inverness (6th, 9pts) have P8 W2 D3 L3 since their relegation. Raith's home form (P3 W1 D2 L0) has been weaker than their away (P5 W3 D1 L1), while Inverness have been picking up their best results away from home (P4 W2 D2 L0).

That said, I think alot of that may be down to the oppositions faced so far. Inverness have lost to all the current top 3 sides at home (conceding 3 on each occasion), Raith are 4th, could potentially go top with a win, and have home advantage. The teams Inverness have played on the road so far this season are all currently based in the bottom half of the table (and its worth noting they needed a late equaliser away to rock bootm Airdrie to avoid defeat), so I'm not reading too much into their loss-less away campaign. Raith drew away to top of the table Queen of the South, have beaten second place Ross County on the road, and but for an 86th minute equaliser would have beaten third place Partick Thistle at home (who both stuck 3 past Inverness away), so they've certainly proved they can hold their own.

Raith have only picked up 2 points from the last 30 available against Inverness, but they last played in 2004 having both gone seperate ways in the meantime, so I'm trying to avoid looking into that too much as they're both different teams now.

Neither side has much in the way of injury trouble, and Raith welcome back 2 players who've been absent.

Looking at the prices on Betfair, I think there's value to be had here because I think it's the overall results that are being looked at, and not accounting for the oppostion faced (although I may well stand to be corrected!).

Töpher

Scotland; First Division; Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16

A win tonight will see Ross County (2nd, 16pts) top the table tonight, regardless of how Raith Rovers do. There's already a 6 point gap between 5th and 6th after less than 10 games, perhaps an evident sign of the difference in class (can that be used in lower league Scotland? :pac:) between the teams? Dunfermline (7th, 9pts) are tied on points with two other sides on the wrong side of that statistic.

Ross County's home form has been good this season so far, P4 W3 D0 L1. The loss was a 0-1 several matches ago, and was to the previously mentioned Raith Rovers. They have won both home matches since, including a 3-2 victory over table topping Queen of the South.

Dunfermline haven't looked good on the road, P3 W1 D0 L2. The win was the first away match of the season at Greenock Morton, and seemingly every team I've looked at so far has beaten them! Since then they've lost away to mid-table Dundee, and second place Partick Thistle. They've lost 4 of their last 5 matches, those two away games mentioned, and two games at home to Queen of the South and Raith Rovers. These are obviously teams doing well at the moment, but in these 4 defeats Dunfermline shipped 9 goals and only scored 1. They did beat second from bottom Ayr United in their last match, though.

Given that Ross County are performing well at the top of the table, I fail to see any reason why they can't hand Dunfermline another defeat from an in form side - especially as they have no new injury worries, while Dunfermline picked up several in recent weeks.

Töpher

England; League 1; Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14

:eek: I genuinely can't see how over evens can be offered on this (hope I don't get proved wrong now after that!). I think it genuinely could be a case of who has the less shíte defence.

Both teams are on shocking runs of form, and I couldn't pick a winner for this, if anything I'd take a wild stab at a high scoring draw. Brighton have managed the odd draw away from home, and Gillingham have scraped the odd win at home, but other than that they're both losing games left right and centre. Brighton have 3 points from their last 5 home games, while Gillingham have 1 point from their last 5 away games.

Gillingham have conceded 14 times in their last 5 away matches, while scoring 6. They drew 0-0 with Walsall (who then played out a further 2 0-0's :eek:), but have otherwise conceded at least 2 in each away match this season, letting in 4 on 3 (of 5) occasions (including to Tranmere... when John Barnes was there!).

Brighton have succeeded in scoring 2 goals at home on 2 occasions so far this season, and haven't gotten a single point from either one (2-4 and 2-3). These games (just home) have both been sandwiched between one goal matches, 2 losses, and a win over Wycombe (who have only had overs once this season). They can also boast about conceding 7 away to the mighty Huddersfield town (although that was about 6 weeks ago).

Both teams have been shocking at the back, but between the combined 22 games they've played so far this year, they've scored in 17 of them, so are well able to find the back of the opponents net too.

Brighton are averaging nearly 2 goals a game conceded at home, Gillingham are averaging 3 conceded away, and both are averaging one scored respectively. Unless both teams shut up shop from the off and play for the 0-0 to stop their respective rots, this should reach overs no problem.
__

I've also trebled the 3 bets detailed above @ 8.64 on BWIN.

[edit]
Available @ 9.00 on PP, but I didn't have funds on it, and not enough spares to deposit! Betfair aren't allowing the overs in the multiple, only offering a win market for the Brighton match.

Morzadec

Busy morning Topher!

Know absolutely nothing about any of these teams/leagues but your reasoning seems souns so I have backed all 3. Most heavily backed the overs in the League One game

MrKingsley

Ive just had a punt on the treble at 8/1 on Paddypower topher.

You form is bound to come good after settling down on a new thread!

L'prof

Töpher wrote: »

FT: 3-0 :eek:

/me watches the wheels disappear into the distance as they fall off with style! :eek:

(3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
(1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
(1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
(2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
(5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
(0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
(0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
(2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
(1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
(2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
(0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
(3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
(1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Doing well so far. Anybody following your bets with the same stake for each bet (singles) would be up 7.47 times their stake. Keep up the good work. I like the soccerway images and the consistent updates, nice touch.

Gavin "shels"

MrKingsley wrote: »

Ive just had a punt on the treble at 8/1 on Paddypower topher.

9.51 on Boylesports for the treble, put some on that myself.

Töpher

:eek: I'll be sweating on the results even more tonight now lads! Hope it doesn't let anyone down.

Töpher

Töpher wrote: »

Scotland; First Division; Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74

FT: 0-1

Töpher wrote: »

Scotland; First Division; Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16

FT: 0-0

Töpher wrote: »

England; League 1; Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14

FT: 2-0

Bloody hell, that was a depressing evening! That's four wretched picks in a row, apologies to anyone that may have picked up on these, and also to my own bank account (you don't deserve such punishment!).

Have had to stop using the images from Soccerway as I reached the maximum allowed per post (15). It doesn't make for any better reading this way, aghast!

.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Headshot

ouch

bad night Töpher

dont worry it happens, myself have been on a poor run of late after a superb run

L'prof

Töpher wrote: »

FT: 0-1



FT: 0-0



FT: 2-0

Bloody hell, that was a depressing evening! That's four wretched picks in a row, apologies to anyone that may have picked up on these, and also to my own bank account (you don't deserve such punishment!).

Have had to stop using the images from Soccerway as I reached the maximum allowed per post (15). It doesn't make for any better reading this way, aghast!

.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

It's not that bad, still up 4.47 times your stake on the singles.

Jiggaman

Anyone think West Ham might do Stoke away from home at the weekend? They're 5-2 with PP. For good reason though considerin their place in the table but could be due a win? I'm on a shockin run lately. Bettin on the favourites just isn't as easy as it used to be. I'm thinkin of throwin um in my long shot accum.
Rangers 4-9, West Ham 5-2, Everton 2-5, Chelsea 5-6, Liverpool 8-11 5 on gets bout 110 I think it is. Wishful thinking. :P

Töpher

MLS; 03.00; Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80

[I'm in work, bored, not an addict... ]

I'm going to overlook Real Salt Lakes dreadful history against the Red Bull franchise, because their current form is completely different.

Both teams are poor away from home, losing an awful lot of games, however Real Salt Lake are pretty decent at home (P13 W7 D5 L1). Compare this to Red Bull's away record of away games (P14 W0 D2 L12) and it becomes difficult to look past the home side, who's only loss at home this season came back in May. On the road, Red Bull picked up a point in April, and a point in September, and only scored 3 goals in their 14 away games... :eek: They kept 1 clean sheet, in April, which was a 0-0 draw and contributes 50% of their points picked up on their travels. The other was about 2 weeks ago, when an 84th minute goal from Juan Pablo Angel (remember him?) levelled a game against Chivas (who are doing really well), in what can only be considered a shock result.

Real Salt Lake have kept 5 clean sheets in their 13 home matches, and are averaging over 2 goals a game scored, only failing to score twice (one draw, and the one loss). They have lost their last 2 matches, but these were both away games, and their away form (P14 W2 D2 L12) doesn't seem to have much of an effect on their home form, which is now 8 matches since that sole defeat.

It's hard to see a home defeat here because New York seemingly couldn't pay for it at the moment, so unless they pull off a miracle and keep their second away clean sheet of the season and hold this to a 0-0, Real Salt Lake should take this with their scoring record, and @ 1.80 it seems a steal.

Töpher

Töpher wrote: »

Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80

FT: 2-0, nice to see one win again! The green sure is nicer than the red!

W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

MrKingsley

Nice to see your back in business topher. Ill go an jinx the next one again now.

Could really do with a win!

Töpher

2. Bundesliga; 17.00; Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - under 2.5 goals @ 2.1 (Betfair)

Bielefeld (1st, 18pts) are the favourites here (@ 1.79) against Aachen (13th, 10pts) but I have my reservations about the home side winning easily.

Aachen have played 4 away games so far this season, P4 W0 D3 L1, F2 A3. Bielfeld's home record is very impressive, P4 W3 D0 L1, F7 A3, and they're on a 5 match winning streak having kept 4 clean sheets in a row.

Both teams seem to be quite solid at the back recently, with either team only conceding 2 in their last 5 played. Bielefeld have been picking up more points, but their last 2 matches have been 1-0 victories, whilst Aachen have drawn 0-0 and 1-1 in the same time-frame.

In the last 5 matches Bielefeld have had 2 games with overs, against Greuther Furth (who have had overs in all 8 matches this season) and Duisburg (who've had overs in 7 of their 8 matches this season). Aachen have had 1, scoring 3 at home against FSV Frankfurt (who are averaging 3 goals against per away match).

Aachen's away defensive record isn't relying on playing weaker teams, they've played 2nd place Kaiserslautern, 5th place Rot-Weiß Oberhausen, and mid table Fortuna Düsseldorf away from home, conceding 1 goal against each of the higher ranked sides.

Bielefeld recently struggled to break down bottom of the table Rot Weiss Ahlen (P8 W0 D1 L7), playing 70 minutes before making the breakthrough (at home) and adding one more ten from time.

They haven't faced each other in 2.5 years, so the previous histories aren't overly relevant and I'm going to (stupidly?) ignore them (Bielefeld historically score alot at home versus Aachen).

I'd be tempted to look at the draw on this one (@ 3.95), but I'm wary of Bielefeld recording another 1-0, so I'm going for the unders given both their defensive records of late.

Hello0909

Töpher wrote: »

2. Bundesliga; 17.00; Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - under 2.5 goals @ 2.1 (Betfair)

Bielefeld (1st, 18pts) are the favourites here (@ 1.79) against Aachen (13th, 10pts) but I have my reservations about the home side winning easily.

Aachen have played 4 away games so far this season, P4 W0 D3 L1, F2 A3. Bielfeld's home record is very impressive, P4 W3 D0 L1, F7 A3, and they're on a 5 match winning streak having kept 4 clean sheets in a row.

Both teams seem to be quite solid at the back recently, with either team only conceding 2 in their last 5 played. Bielefeld have been picking up more points, but their last 2 matches have been 1-0 victories, whilst Aachen have drawn 0-0 and 1-1 in the same time-frame.

In the last 5 matches Bielefeld have had 2 games with overs, against Greuther Furth (who have had overs in all 8 matches this season) and Duisburg (who've had overs in 7 of their 8 matches this season). Aachen have had 1, scoring 3 at home against FSV Frankfurt (who are averaging 3 goals against per away match).

Aachen's away defensive record isn't relying on playing weaker teams, they've played 2nd place Kaiserslautern, 5th place Rot-Weiß Oberhausen, and mid table Fortuna Düsseldorf away from home, conceding 1 goal against each of the higher ranked sides.

Bielefeld recently struggled to break down bottom of the table Rot Weiss Ahlen (P8 W0 D1 L7), playing 70 minutes before making the breakthrough (at home) and adding one more ten from time.

They haven't faced each other in 2.5 years, so the previous histories aren't overly relevant and I'm going to (stupidly?) ignore them (Bielefeld historically score alot at home versus Aachen).

I'd be tempted to look at the draw on this one (@ 3.95), but I'm wary of Bielefeld recording another 1-0, so I'm going for the unders given both their defensive records of late.

Mervue United Vs Ucd Over 2.5 Goals 4/5 pp

Töpher

Töpher wrote: »

Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - under 2.5 goals @ 2.1 (Betfair)

I'd be tempted to look at the draw on this one (@ 3.95), but I'm wary of Bielefeld recording another 1-0, so I'm going for the unders given both their defensive records of late.

FT: Arminia Bielefeld 1 - 0 Alemannia Aachen :pac:

W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - under 2.5 goals @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

L'prof

Töpher wrote: »

FT: Arminia Bielefeld 1 - 0 Alemannia Aachen :pac:

W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - under 2.5 goals @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Doh! Meant to get on this, didn't realise it was an early match. Any chance you could post kick off times?

Töpher

Töpher wrote: »

2. Bundesliga; 17.00; Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - under 2.5 goals @ 2.1 (Betfair)

jasonorr wrote: »

Doh! Meant to get on this, didn't realise it was an early match. Any chance you could post kick off times?

I'll stick them at the start in future so they stand out a bit more, sorry .

L'prof

Töpher wrote: »

I'll stick them at the start in future so they stand out a bit more, sorry .

How blind am I? Disregard my last post

Töpher

Töpher

15.00; League 2; Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.93

Crewe have just been absolutely insane lately. Their last 5 games have all passed the overs mark (losing 4 of them), and left it miles behind in the distance - their last 5 matches have seen an incredible 26 goals scored. They've conceded 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches, scoring at least 2 themselves, with their last match being the exception (3-2 win).

Port Vale aren't a team that tend to be involved in overly high scoring games reguarly, but they do come around, and 2 of their last 5 have reached the 4 goal mark (3 of 5 if you included the Football League Trophy match against Stockport), (the others were unders though).

This is a derby match though, and will hopefully be an open end to end affair. With the erratic form Crewe have been demonstrating lately, near evens is too good for me to overlook on the overs.

Töpher

15.00; League 1; Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50

Charlton play their 3rd home game (P6 W4 D2 L0) in a row this afternoon, and after a 0-0 against Oldham they'll be looking to return to winning ways following a stutter of late. Prior to the draw with Oldham, they drew away to Leeds, and lost to Colchester (who have P6 W5 at home). The problem for them is going to be scoring, they've failed to score in 3 (1st choice striker Burton has a hernia, but is still playing), but kept 2 clean sheets in a row now, so the defence looks to have gotten over that recent blip.

I know Huddersfield are fancied for this in some corners, but I can't see them winning it outright. I know they beat Exeter at home convincingly in their last match, but Exeter have been inconsistent at best lately. Huddersfield's away form this season has been very poor (P6 W1 D1 L4) and they've conceded in each one of those games (although they've also scored in 4 of them). They've lost 3 of their last 5, and 4 of the last 5 on the road.

Charlton will be at near full strength, and although Huddersfield are listed as having some players missing through injury, none of them have had much field time this season so far so shouldn't have an effect on the team.

Huddersfield's defence might hold out well against the struggling Charlton forward line, but with Charlton's defence sealing up of late, it could be quite a low scoring affair.

I can see this ending 0-0 or 1-1, so am going to plump for the draw.

BBC Sport wrote:

Charlton welcome back midfielder Jose Semedo after five games out with a pelvic injury, while defender Sam Sodje returns from international duty.
Deon Burton will continue to lead the line despite a hernia and Leon McKenzie will again be among the substitutes.
Huddersfield strikers Theo Robinson and Lee Novak are vying to partner Jordan Rhodes up front.
But Terriers' boss Lee Clark is without Tom Clarke (knee), Chris Lucketti (calf) and Robbie Simpson (thigh).

Töpher

14.30; Bundesliga; Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63 (Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80)

Bayern have underperformed so far this season, not picking up wins where expected on several occasions. Alot of this has been down to failing to create enough goal scoring chances, and failing to take them when they do. However their defence has been solid since the end of August, conceding only 3 goals in 8 competitive matches. They know they need to start turning out the results in order to avoid dropping any further off the pace, but alot of this pressure will be on the midfield and forwards attacking play.

Freiburg have been regular scorers on their travels, but of their 4 home matches this year (P4 W1 D1 L2), they've failed to score in 2 of them, suffering 0-5 and 0-2 defeats.

Bayern will have to hit the ground running now that the international break has passed, and I fully expect them to start that with 3 points here. Ribery is missing, but they still have plenty of attacking quality to call on. Also going for the clean sheet as their defensive stats have been pretty impressive lately and 2.80 seems highly generous.

Morzadec

I've backed your reasoning (rather than the actual bet itself) behind the Charlton Huddersfield game and gone for under 2.5 goals at just better than Evs.

Also backed the Bayern Clean Sheet Bet.

Last time I backed your selections they all lost so lets home I don't jinx you again this time!

Gillington

(Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80)

Wow, undone in the 90th minute unlucky bro.

Töpher

Töpher wrote: »

Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.93

1-2

Töpher wrote: »

Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50

:mad: 2-1

Töpher wrote: »

Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63 (Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80)

1-2 (:mad:) Freiburg goal scored in the 90th...!

Sorry Morzadec, looks like they've conspired against you again! :eek:

LSP: +5.95 (this would be a much nicer value if I could cut out some of those silly losses).

W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - under 2.5 goals @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08