the future for Irish politics

Spiritoftheseventies

I can see a lot of people rebelling against the establishment parties and voting for more independents if this era of corruption is tolerated.
I dont see any effort by government to change their ways and with the unions holding the country to ransom at moment what we need is a party strong enough to face up to them.
End of the day when Public sector union leaders are telling govt of day to raise taxes instead of reducing public sector wages we have a problem.

Lame Lantern

Engaging in the mainstream in the North effectively meant accepting the legitimacy of NI and therefore legitimacy of partition. Still does.

I would suggest a distinction between accepting the legitimacy of partition and a willingness to engage with the reality of the situation with the intent to change the status quo, but we're likely just going down a semantic route at that stage.

I can see a lot of people rebelling against the establishment parties and voting for more independents if this era of corruption is tolerated.

Speaking largely from the perspective of youth and student voting, people are simply dropping out of engagement with mainstream politics entirely in response to the perception of "corrupt" or ineffective politics. It's a self-indulgent, completely ineffective reaction and one that will only withdraw the most substantial dissenting constituency from public debate. The "establishment" is under less threat than one might think.

Sand

@T runner

I would not be in favour of the FG list system for electing TDs.
I think you should know who youre electing and the risk is parties would use teh list for getting people in who would have no chance in a local election. Can be a good thing but generally thats a bad thing.

I believe people shouldnt know *who* theyre electing, but *what* theyre electing. Irish parties have a very effective whip system so what individual TDs think doesnt really matter: party policy matters. Most Fianna Fail TDs can barely spell NAMA, let alone understand it. But theyll vote for it en masse anyhow because they were told to by the boss.

The main advantage of the list system is that it would allow parties to select effective, motivated and competent representitives who would have no chance in a local, when the main attribute Irish voters appreciate is the ability to belt out "The Clara Rover" from the back of a lorry parked on a crossroads.

Lame Lantern

Sand wrote: »

@T runner


I believe people shouldnt know *who* theyre electing, but *what* theyre electing. Irish parties have a very effective whip system so what individual TDs think doesnt really matter: party policy matters. Most Fianna Fail TDs can barely spell NAMA, let alone understand it. But theyll vote for it en masse anyhow because they were told to by the boss.

That's how electing a member of a party works.

The main advantage of the list system is that it would allow parties to select effective, motivated and competent representitives who would have no chance in a local, when the main attribute Irish voters appreciate is the ability to belt out "The Clara Rover" from the back of a lorry parked on a crossroads.

There's no need to patronise the Irish voter. Fianna Fáil are below twenty points in the polls with every indication that the public is reacting to issues at a state level not anything as amorphous as weird nationalism. Exits at the local elections showed voters choosing candidates on the basis of national issues as well. Polling has consistently indicated a high level of political awareness in the Irish electorate (whether you agree with the majority's assessment or not).

Sand

That's how electing a member of a party works.

Youll have to run that past me one more time.

There's no need to patronise the Irish voter. Fianna Fáil are below twenty points in the polls with every indication that the public is reacting to issues at a state level not anything as amorphous as weird nationalism. Exits at the local elections showed voters choosing candidates on the basis of national issues as well. Polling has consistently indicated a high level of political awareness in the Irish electorate (whether you agree with the majority's assessment or not).

I dont think reform of the electoral system is patronising the Irish voter: its recognising that we need to vote on national policy, not local policy ( I also believe that local government needs a serious overhaul with a regional level government as opposed to county council level).

- Fianna Fail might be below 20% in the polls, but they are above 0%. Given their incredible ineptitude it really does lend credence to the view that Fianna Fail could put an ape in a suit up for election and take home the seat in many constituencies. Indeed, its yet to be disproven that their backbenchers are of special scientific interest.
- Consistent electoral results show Ireland consistently elects wholly incompetent and parochial politicians who cannot discuss national issues without embarrassing themselves. Look at Frank Fahey in my sig for an example.
- Their probably is a quite high level of political awareness in Irish society, but it is not being tapped when Irish people are asked to vote on personality driven politics as opposed to policy driven politics.

Lets remember, it is consistently and repeatedly stated that FG has a huge liability. This is not an issue of their manifesto. Its that their leader isnt considered to be a personality big enough to lead the country.

Lame Lantern

Sand wrote: »

Youll have to run that past me one more time.

It is reasonable to expect a party member elected on a party ticket to support the policy of party leadership. The list vote system would, if anything, increase this dynamic as the leadership could choose to place whoever they wished at the top of the list, circumventing any nominating process.

I dont think reform of the electoral system is patronising the Irish voter: its recognising that we need to vote on national policy, not local policy ( I also believe that local government needs a serious overhaul with a regional level government as opposed to county council level).

The comment "when the main attribute Irish voters appreciate is the ability to belt out 'The Clara Rover' from the back of a lorry parked on a crossroads" is both patronising and incorrect. And as I mentioned, people do vote on national issues. There was nothing in the local election result that wasn't nationally informed as polling tells us quite clearly.

- Fianna Fail might be below 20% in the polls, but they are above 0%. Given their incredible ineptitude it really does lend credence to the view that Fianna Fail could put an ape in a suit up for election and take home the seat in many constituencies. Indeed, its yet to be disproven that their backbenchers are of special scientific interest.

Their "incredible ineptitude" oversaw the country experience a decade of unprecedented prosperity. I have never voted Fianna Fáil but to suggest that 18ish percent of the country continuing to support such a party because of some weird delusion is wrong. Their "incredible ineptitude" is a subjective statement, and while I have voted for the opposition for some time I don't think it's reasonable to simply declare them dithering morons instead of chastising them for policies you feel are inappropriate on legitimate grounds.

- Consistent electoral results show Ireland consistently elects wholly incompetent and parochial politicians who cannot discuss national issues without embarrassing themselves. Look at Frank Fahey in my sig for an example.

The prominence of Irish political engagement at a European level would suggest that our EU partners seem to consider these incompetent and parochial politicians very capable leaders on a larger stage. Again, I disagree with the sitting administration quite strongly, but they're clearly professionals and savvy political operatives. Every parliament has its mentals, as you've pointed out. Look at the UK or the US for some particularly alarming and prevalent examples. They are, however, a marginalised minority.

- Their probably is a quite high level of political awareness in Irish society, but it is not being tapped when Irish people are asked to vote on personality driven politics as opposed to policy driven politics.

Actually, as a result of the Irish political continuum skirting around the centre, Irish voters are more inclined to vote on issues rather than ideology or personality. I discussed this elsewhere on boards recently (I think). Ours is larglely a politics of pragmatism compared to the grotesque culture warfare of the UK, France or the US.

Lets remember, it is consistently and repeatedly stated that FG has a huge liability. This is not an issue of their manifesto. Its that their leader isnt considered to be a personality big enough to lead the country.

Rather, their leader is clearly incompetent. It isn't that he lacks "personality" it's that he's inarticulate and uninspired.

Spiritoftheseventies

Lame Lantern wrote: »

It is reasonable to expect a party member elected on a party ticket to support the policy of party leadership. The list vote system would, if anything, increase this dynamic as the leadership could choose to place whoever they wished at the top of the list, circumventing any nominating process.




The comment "when the main attribute Irish voters appreciate is the ability to belt out 'The Clara Rover' from the back of a lorry parked on a crossroads" is both patronising and incorrect. And as I mentioned, people do vote on national issues. There was nothing in the local election result that wasn't nationally informed as polling tells us quite clearly.



Their "incredible ineptitude" oversaw the country experience a decade of unprecedented prosperity. I have never voted Fianna Fáil but to suggest that 18ish percent of the country continuing to support such a party because of some weird delusion is wrong. Their "incredible ineptitude" is a subjective statement, and while I have voted for the opposition for some time I don't think it's reasonable to simply declare them dithering morons instead of chastising them for policies you feel are inappropriate on legitimate grounds.



The prominence of Irish political engagement at a European level would suggest that our EU partners seem to consider these incompetent and parochial politicians very capable leaders on a larger stage. Again, I disagree with the sitting administration quite strongly, but they're clearly professionals and savvy political operatives. Every parliament has its mentals, as you've pointed out. Look at the UK or the US for some particularly alarming and prevalent examples. They are, however, a marginalised minority.


Actually, as a result of the Irish political continuum skirting around the centre, Irish voters are more inclined to vote on issues rather than ideology or personality. I discussed this elsewhere on boards recently (I think). Ours is larglely a politics of pragmatism compared to the grotesque culture warfare of the UK, France or the US.


Rather, their leader is clearly incompetent. It isn't that he lacks "personality" it's that he's inarticulate and uninspired.

Yes and Im hearing this morning that despite the fact that John Bruton is putting his name forward for EU president Cowen is apparently leading towards Blair. There is all this talk about us having a voice in Europe yet when push comes to shove, our parties will always vote on party lines.

irish_bob

bayviewclose wrote: »

Yes and Im hearing this morning that despite the fact that John Bruton is putting his name forward for EU president Cowen is apparently leading towards Blair. There is all this talk about us having a voice in Europe yet when push comes to shove, our parties will always vote on party lines.

that just prooves what most already knew , that cowen is a tribalist and a terribly small small man

Sand

@Lame Lantern

It is reasonable to expect a party member elected on a party ticket to support the policy of party leadership. The list vote system would, if anything, increase this dynamic as the leadership could choose to place whoever they wished at the top of the list, circumventing any nominating process.

Well, who gets placed on the list depends on the party process. Some parties will go for the secret cabal of 2-3 guys in a smoky backroom, other parties will go for a vote by party members and delegates.

Either way, the public will vote on the basis of party policy as opposed to delusions that their local TD is an individual. Given the reality you point to, a list system is only to be welcomed whereaes a personality based system might lead to mistaken decisions on the basis the TDs being elected are unique and special individuals.


T

he comment "when the main attribute Irish voters appreciate is the ability to belt out 'The Clara Rover' from the back of a lorry parked on a crossroads" is both patronising and incorrect.

Brian Cowen
Brian Lenihan
Mary Coughlan
Liam Lawlor
Bev Cooper Flynn
Michael Lowry
John O Donohuge


Sucessful Irish politicians. Point out the statesmen/women.

Their "incredible ineptitude" oversaw the country experience a decade of unprecedented prosperity. I have never voted Fianna Fáil but to suggest that 18ish percent of the country continuing to support such a party because of some weird delusion is wrong. Their "incredible ineptitude" is a subjective statement, and while I have voted for the opposition for some time I don't think it's reasonable to simply declare them dithering morons instead of chastising them for policies you feel are inappropriate on legitimate grounds.

****s sake, I could have run the country between the 90s and 2006 and been hailed as an economic genius. Remember, the only reason for voting Fianna Fail in these years was that the opposition were ****ing woeful. This in and of itself is not a vindication of the government.

The incredible ineptitude was best reflected that the government since 2003 onwards has spent and spent and spent on the basis of a property boom which provided massive if temporary tax yields to buy votes. They have spent and spent and spent and now we have to come to the reality we dont have the money to back up the spending the government has committed to - long term spending commitments based on short term tax receipts which have now vanished.

Now given how badly FF has run the government, with the full benefit of hindsight on top of everything else, the idea that 18% still support them is because of some weird delusion is right. We already agree that FFer vote on party policy, Irelands current situation determines that FF party policy is wrong, hence 0% support is correct, not 18%

The prominence of Irish political engagement at a European level would suggest that our EU partners seem to consider these incompetent and parochial politicians very capable leaders on a larger stage

They dont have much choice - they have to engage with whatever ****kickers we empower to represent us. If we elect Richie ****ing Kavanagh ( who probably has a better understanding of NAMA than Frank Fahey, member of the Oireachtas Finance Comittee) then our EU partners would still have to pretend Richie ****ing Kavanagh was a very capable leader on a larger stage.

Actually, as a result of the Irish political continuum skirting around the centre, Irish voters are more inclined to vote on issues

Local issues, not national issues.

Rather, their leader is clearly incompetent. It isn't that he lacks "personality" it's that he's inarticulate and uninspired.

Inarticulate? Uninspired? No personality?

I'm not seeing how you disagree with my point.

Lame Lantern

Sand wrote: »

@Lame Lantern Well, who gets placed on the list depends on the party process. Some parties will go for the secret cabal of 2-3 guys in a smoky backroom, other parties will go for a vote by party members and delegates.

As opposed to the current system where all nominating processes need to be transparent.

Either way, the public will vote on the basis of party policy as opposed to delusions that their local TD is an individual. Given the reality you point to, a list system is only to be welcomed whereaes a personality based system might lead to mistaken decisions on the basis the TDs being elected are unique and special individuals.

Your continued error is in assuming the Irish voter to be stupid. Removing the ability for the electorate the guage their representatives on an individual basis will result in, as is the case in Italy, thugs and disreputable figures being protected by their position within the party and returned repeatedly to parliament. Removing the electorate's ability to put every politician to the ballot is a massive retrograde step. Your gripe is a) that you disagree with who gets elected and b) that you (misguidedly) feel people are being elected because the public is being deceived or is lost in a sea of stupidity.

Brian Cowen Brian Lenihan Mary Coughlan Liam Lawlor Bev Cooper Flynn Michael Lowry John O Donohuge

All of these currently sitting representatives would be in no danger of reelection in a list vote scenario. Leaving aside your false impression of the Irish voter for the time being (as I discussed it previously) I don't see how it could be more democratic to simply disallow voters in particular constituencies to send who they want to the Dáil.

****s sake, I could have run the country between the 90s and 2006 and been hailed as an economic genius. Remember, the only reason for voting Fianna Fail in these years was that the opposition were ****ing woeful. This in and of itself is not a vindication of the government.

The economic turnaround came as a result of direct government action. Though largely happening due to bilateral consensus, Fianna Fáil have a right to claim success for that period. And to suggest that the success of the Irish economy cannot possibly be credited to politicians whereas the massive global hell-on-earth-for-everyone-everywhere meltdown of 08/09 was the sole offspring of Fianna Fáil management is hypocritical and weird. They have made substantial missteps (especially Cowen's two budgets and the dithering of the last year) but they didn't set the barn itself on fire.

The incredible ineptitude was best reflected that the government since 2003 onwards has spent and spent and spent on the basis of a property boom which provided massive if temporary tax yields to buy votes. They have spent and spent and spent and now we have to come to the reality we dont have the money to back up the spending the government has committed to - long term spending commitments based on short term tax receipts which have now vanished.

They spent and spent and spent with the backing of most international economic monitoring bodies, a minority of whom at best said "it's okay, just slow down a shade." Fianna Fáil's crimes since Cowen entered finance have been lack of creativity and ideological languor, not active crazy.

Now given how badly FF has run the government,

Again, not axiomatic. Furthermore, people are wholly entitled to support FF's social policies (which I also stongly disagree with) which is a large constituency for them.

with the full benefit of hindsight on top of everything else, the idea that 18% still support them is because of some weird delusion is right.

Let's end democracy then.

We already agree that FFer vote on party policy, Irelands current situation determines that FF party policy is wrong, hence 0% support is correct, not 18%

You and I agree (as would most of boards) but NAMA has its supporters and the Fianna Fáil line of "well ****, the entire world didn't see this coming, cut us some slack" will hold sway with a business community that has long had the party's ear. It's actually lower than I would have wagered.

They dont have much choice - they have to engage with whatever ****kickers we empower to represent us. If we elect Richie ****ing Kavanagh ( who probably has a better understanding of NAMA than Frank Fahey, member of the Oireachtas Finance Comittee) then our EU partners would still have to pretend Richie ****ing Kavanagh was a very capable leader on a larger stage.

The point is that Europe has been more than pleased with the leaders Ireland (mostly in the FF/PD family) has sent to Brussels over the last decade.

Local issues, not national issues.

As I said, wrong. Not a single poll coming out of our last election cycle reflected the pothole mentality.

Inarticulate? Uninspired? No personality? I'm not seeing how you disagree with my point.

My point is that the electorate's objection to Kenny is not that he's less of a cabaret singer than Cowen but rather that he's demonstrating a legitimate lack of fitness for the role.

Spiritoftheseventies

Lame Lantern wrote: »

As opposed to the current system where all nominating processes need to be transparent. Your continued error is in assuming the Irish voter to be stupid. Removing the ability for the electorate the guage their representatives on an individual basis will result in, as is the case in Italy, thugs and disreputable figures being protected by their position within the party and returned repeatedly to parliament. Removing the electorate's ability to put every politician to the ballot is a massive retrograde step. Your gripe is a) that you disagree with who gets elected and b) that you (misguidedly) feel people are being elected because the public is being deceived or is lost in a sea of stupidity. All of these currently sitting representatives would be in no danger of reelection in a list vote scenario. Leaving aside your false impression of the Irish voter for the time being (as I discussed it previously) I don't see how it could be more democratic to simply disallow voters in particular constituencies to send who they want to the Dáil. The economic turnaround came as a result of direct government action. Though largely happening due to bilateral consensus, Fianna Fáil have a right to claim success for that period. And to suggest that the success of the Irish economy cannot possibly be credited to politicians whereas the massive global hell-on-earth-for-everyone-everywhere meltdown of 08/09 was the sole offspring of Fianna Fáil management is hypocritical and weird. They have made substantial missteps (especially Cowen's two budgets and the dithering of the last year) but they didn't set the barn itself on fire. They spent and spent and spent with the backing of most international economic monitoring bodies, a minority of whom at best said "it's okay, just slow down a shade." Fianna Fáil's crimes since Cowen entered finance have been lack of creativity and ideological languor, not active crazy. Again, not axiomatic. Furthermore, people are wholly entitled to support FF's social policies (which I also stongly disagree with) which is a large constituency for them. Let's end democracy then. You and I agree (as would most of boards) but NAMA has its supporters and the Fianna Fáil line of "well ****, the entire world didn't see this coming, cut us some slack" will hold sway with a business community that has long had the party's ear. It's actually lower than I would have wagered. The point is that Europe has been more than pleased with the leaders Ireland (mostly in the FF/PD family) has sent to Brussels over the last decade. As I said, wrong. Not a single poll coming out of our last election cycle reflected the pothole mentality. My point is that the electorate's objection to Kenny is not that he's less of a cabaret singer than Cowen but rather that he's demonstrating a legitimate lack of fitness for the role.

Well would assume that by time of next election, Richard Bruton, will be FG leader thereby making party more attractive to the voter.
Would not say Kenny has a lack of fitness for role of taoiseach but he does tend to trip himself up in as happened a few weeks ago in leaders questions.
Looking at next government, I think Bruton as Taoiseach and Gilmore as Tanaiste looks a good front two.

Lame Lantern

bayviewclose wrote: »

Well would assume that by time of next election, Richard Bruton, will be FG leader thereby making party more attractive to the voter. Would not say Kenny has a lack of fitness for role of taoiseach but he does tend to trip himself up in as happened a few weeks ago in leaders questions. Looking at next government, I think Bruton as Taoiseach and Gilmore as Tanaiste looks a good front two.

The ability for a Taoiseach to be articulate is an important skill in itself so judging him on that basis is perfectly fine by me. However, my main gripe with Kenny is that he continues to tether the party to the right which is utterly out of step with an increasingly young grassroots membership as well as being blind to the desires of voters objecting to the sitting government that they're actively courting. Bruton would be able to take the party back to the where their supporters lie. And you're right, Bruton and Gilmore would be able to forge a far more commensurate and effective government than Kenny and Gilmore.

irish_bob

Lame Lantern wrote: »

The ability for a Taoiseach to be articulate is an important skill in itself so judging him on that basis is perfectly fine by me. However, my main gripe with Kenny is that he continues to tether the party to the right which is utterly out of step with an increasingly young grassroots membership as well as being blind to the desires of voters objecting to the sitting government that they're actively courting. Bruton would be able to take the party back to the where their supporters lie. And you're right, Bruton and Gilmore would be able to forge a far more commensurate and effective government than Kenny and Gilmore.

kenny is a white line in the middle of the road centrist , fine gael need to move sharply to the right to become relevant , thier is a much bigger conservative vote out there than many would have us believe , especially our overwhelmingly left wing media , if fine gael get off the fence , entirely pitch for the private sector and unemployed former private sector vote , delcare war on the unions , potray both fianna fail and labour as being parties of big goverment and high spending , i believe their is a sleeping giant of private sector voters out there who will rise up and support them all the way to an overall majority but 1st they must replace kenny

Lame Lantern

irish_bob wrote: »

kenny is a white line in the middle of the road centrist , fine gael need to move sharply to the right to become relevant , thier is a much bigger conservative vote out there than many would have us believe , especially our overwhelmingly left wing media , if fine gael get off the fence , entirely pitch for the private sector and unemployed former private sector vote , delcare war on the unions , potray both fianna fail and labour as being parties of big goverment and high spending , i believe their is a sleeping giant of private sector voters out there who will rise up and support them all the way to an overall majority but 1st they must replace kenny

With the exception of abortion, most enduring conservative social policies in the country (notably gay rights) may have nominal support in the public but there is no conviction behind it. Unlike other fundamentally conservative societies like the US or UK, the Irish public does not prioritise immigration control or the veneration of hypocritical "values." Religion, too, is viewed with scepticism and often disdain. On paper, perhaps a majority would object to gay marriage but few would care enough to cast their vote on that basis. A party more right wing than Fianna Fáil would receive little support outside the northwest and even there they would gain no more than a handful of seats. But the main issue is that Fine Gael's current grassroots and its new generation of councillors are all more liberal than Kenny. The right wing leadership is the minority and that is the fundamental inanity of Kenny's position. Also, if they wish to enter into government it will have to be with the Labour party who will not get in bed with a conservative party.