How bad is Lenihan?

Long Onion

Have been mulling this over, but want to point out a few things first:

1) I hate FF and balme them to a large degree for the fact that our recession has been so bad.

2) I would like to keep lengthy discussion of NAMA out of the thread as there are enough discussions on it elsewhere. Having said that, it will have to be taken into account due to its scale and potential consequences, possibly not a full blown debate.

Personally, if NAMA is left to one side, I don't think he is the worst finance minister in recent history, his musings at the Dublin chamber seemed to give a little clarity of thought and he seems willing to take the tough decisions. NAMA is a whole other topic, personally I think it is a feasable solution though it must be run correctly from the get-go.

If he follows through with the cuts to the public sector wage bill that he is talking about, I think that he may stand up to the test of time.

What are your thoughts on Brian?

Dotsie~tmp

He's a solicitor.

thebman

He believes he is doing right I'd say but probably listening to the wrong people.

As a party member of FF, he is also determined to keep the party in a position to be electable for next election even if he has to risk the country to get that IMO.

For that reason he probably needs to go but TBH anyone in a party will have the same loyalty.

I guess I'd feel like I could trust Richard Bruton more in the position as he has some knowledge of economics so might actually know the consequences of his decisions.

DJDC

All depends on the Dec budget. If he stands by his word and slashes PS pay by 10%+, the dole by 5% and widens the tax net then I will be impressed.

A ridicilous situation has now developed in Ireland where anyone earning over €100,000 pays 52% income tax while vast swathes of low earners pay absolutely no tax whatsoever. This is simply not sustainable, for example in Germany you start paying tax on any income over €8,000. He needs to stand up to the communists in the trade unions and ensure everybody pays taxes.

Liam Byrne

He doesn't read crucial reports before making massive decisions with massive amounts of money. That'd scuttle any confidence and respect that I'd have for him being capable.

His estimates and panicked reaction with the two budgets was a joke, especially when compared to the length of time and lax attitude to everything else; odd timing : I just heard this minute that they're proposing pay cuts for themselves for the coming budget - only about a year too late!

As people say, the devil is in the detail, and he makes the detail up as he goes along, which is not good enough.

He has also tried to use deflection; saying that TD expenses were nothing compared to the country's problems; they're not, but that's not an excuse for not sorting them out. So he has no urge or will to sort out his own backyard, despite being in charge of the chequebook.

Tipp Man

DJDC wrote: »

All depends on the Dec budget. If he stands by his word and slashes PS pay by 10%+, the dole by 5% and widens the tax net then I will be impressed.

A ridicilous situation has now developed in Ireland where anyone earning over €100,000 pays 52% income tax while vast swathes of low earners pay absolutely no tax whatsoever. This is simply not sustainable, for example in Germany you start paying tax on any income over €8,000. He needs to stand up to the communists in the trade unions and ensure everybody pays taxes.

Great post, when i heard that idiot O'Connor on Vincent Browne saying we need to redistribute through the tax system then it makes my blood boil. He wants to put even more taxes on the "rich" People seem to forget that the more money you earn the HIGHER percentage tax you pay.

As an example, a single person on 50k will take home 36k (incl PRSI which as far as i'm concerned is a tax) so a 28% tax rate. Now a person on 100k will take home 60.5k so a 39.5% tax rate, while at the other end of the scale the person on 25k pays only 10% tax. Its inequitable if you ask me

In Denmark nearly everybody pays tax, some get some back through various schemes etc but when everybody pays then everybody demands more for it. In Ireland the vast majority of tax is paid by a small percentage of people so the rest don't really give a damn how its spent

rasper

DJDC wrote: »

All depends on the Dec budget. If he stands by his word and slashes PS pay by 10%+, the dole by 5% and widens the tax net then I will be impressed.

A ridicilous situation has now developed in Ireland where anyone earning over €100,000 pays 52% income tax while vast swathes of low earners pay absolutely no tax whatsoever. This is simply not sustainable, for example in Germany you start paying tax on any income over €8,000. He needs to stand up to the communists in the trade unions and ensure everybody pays taxes.

I hate this type of crap being bandied arounded by the government , we are a very heavily taxed people as it stands PRSI , levies, vat, excise duties, vrt, tv license, motor tax, insurance levies etc etc all disregarding how much one has left to live on , so give me a break everyone is hammered with tax direct or indirect and most have very little return on it

Liam Byrne

Tipp Man wrote: »

Great post, when i heard that idiot O'Connor on Vincent Browne saying we need to redistribute through the tax system then it makes my blood boil. He wants to put even more taxes on the "rich" People seem to forget that the more money you earn the HIGHER percentage tax you pay.

As an example, a single person on 50k will take home 36k (incl PRSI which as far as i'm concerned is a tax) so a 28% tax rate. Now a person on 100k will take home 60.5k so a 39.5% tax rate, while at the other end of the scale the person on 25k pays only 10% tax. Its inequitable if you ask me

In Denmark nearly everybody pays tax, some get some back through various schemes etc but when everybody pays then everybody demands more for it. In Ireland the vast majority of tax is paid by a small percentage of people so the rest don't really give a damn how its spent

Interesting post, however it contains no reference to any of the following:

1) Tax breaks
2) Expenses
3) VRT, VAT, bin charges, TV licence, car tax, the upcoming property tax and water charges, the new "on every penny" 'levies' (quick, use another word so that we can still claim low 'tax'), etc, etc

VRT, for one, is for all intents and purposes illegal under EU rules. It was bolted on when the EU outlawed Excise Duty or whatever - but it's basically the same thing renamed for convenience. And the VAT is added based on the base+VRT price. And given the practically non-existent public transport and the cost of it where it does exist, there's no choice but to have a car.

The amount paid in tax isn't massive, but likewise threshold and cost of living here means that you can't afford to change it much.

e.g. the person who mentioned Germany and paying tax on anything over €8,000 : what's the average mortgage / rent / utility bills in Germany ?

Tipp Man

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Interesting post, however it contains no reference to any of the following:

1) Tax breaks
2) Expenses
3) VRT, VAT, bin charges, TV licence, car tax, the upcoming property tax and water charges, the new "on every penny" 'levies' (quick, use another word so that we can still claim low 'tax'), etc, etc

VRT, for one, is for all intents and purposes illegal under EU rules. It was bolted on when the EU outlawed Excise Duty or whatever - but it's basically the same thing renamed for convenience. And the VAT is added based on the base+VRT price. And given the practically non-existent public transport and the cost of it where it does exist, there's no choice but to have a car.

The amount paid in tax isn't massive, but likewise threshold and cost of living here means that you can't afford to change it much.

e.g. the person who mentioned Germany and paying tax on anything over €8,000 : what's the average mortgage / rent / utility bills in Germany ?

My post was simply refering to the income tax and O'Conner's will to see higher earners taxed even more which as far as i am concerned is unjust

DJDC

From RTE:

"The minister said the top marginal rate of tax now stood at 52%, and pushing it higher would turn business away from Ireland. He said that - beyond a new carbon tax - he did not intend to increase taxes in the forthcoming Budget.

Mr Lenihan argued that the top 4% of earners paid 48% of income tax, and that there was no pot of gold that could be raided from the wealthy."

Look the reality is we work in a capitalist small open economy and our main export will always be people and services. We dont have the maunfacturing base in continental Europe so we have to model ourselves on knowledge economies like Singapore, Luxembourg etc to have any chance of survival. Low income taxes on the hardest and most ambitious workers in a society is an integral part of this approach.Punishing people for earning more will just lead to a basket case economy where anyone with ambition just leaves to go elsewhere. Lenihan realises this and thats why this Dec budget is going to come down hard on people less than 50k. Welfare, childerns allowance etc is all going to cut while the higher tax band will be lowered. Just watch and see.

Tipp Man

DJDC wrote: »

From RTE:

"The minister said the top marginal rate of tax now stood at 52%, and pushing it higher would turn business away from Ireland. He said that - beyond a new carbon tax - he did not intend to increase taxes in the forthcoming Budget.

Mr Lenihan argued that the top 4% of earners paid 48% of income tax, and that there was no pot of gold that could be raided from the wealthy."

Look the reality is we work in a capitalist small open economy and our main export will always be people and services. We dont have the maunfacturing base in continental Europe so we have to model ourselves on knowledge economies like Singapore, Luxembourg etc to have any chance of survival. Low income taxes on the hardest and most ambitious workers in a society is an integral part of this approach.Punishing people for earning more will just lead to a basket case economy where anyone with ambition just leaves to go elsewhere. Lenihan realises this and thats why this Dec budget is going to come down hard on people less than 50k. Welfare, childerns allowance etc is all going to cut while the higher tax band will be lowered. Just watch and see.

I think politically if he was to cut welfare, ps wages etc then i think he couldn't possibly cut the top rate as it would be political suicide. however i think it is more likely that he will keep it as is (or adjust for the removal of the levy)

D.S.

In relation to NAMA, I think he has the handled the situation ,whether you agree with his approach or not, in a way that has brought international confidence someway back to the irish banking system. Barring and all out crash/depression in the property market, I think it is feasible that the government, like Sweden, could do well with the assets on the government book and will limit the losses to the economy.

However, he needs to grasp the nettle that is the public sector. If he doesn't get a handle on this, regardless of the political implications, we're done for as an economy.

So jury's out for me until xmas time. He needs to make sweeping changes between now and then.

MG

I have no time for FF either but for me he has been the outstanding minister (not that hard a job mind)

But he does seem to be the one actually concerned about the country and not just about his constituency vote. He's grown into the role and earns more respect from me by the day (in so far as I can respect a Fianna Failer)

Idbatterim

"Economy to grow in 2010 - BoI" thats the headline in business or rte. Im sick of hearing these optimistic forecasts, the last thing we need. Half the gobshi**s in this country are now going to believe it and rally more against any cuts in pay and services! Id like to know how they predict growth when! more people are leaving than entering the country, unemployment will increase, atleast 4billion will be taken out of the economy, sterling and the dollar will remain weak, housing output next year is put at only 10k units ( i think 30k were built this year?) there is probably more big points! I reckon we would be "lucky" to experience very modest growth by 2011 at the earliest! I actually think coming out of this recession early will be alot more damaging that good, the correction has a long way to go, the only ones going to benefit from an early recovery are those who need another good dose of medicine i.e cuts! i.e the PS!

Idbatterim

an outstading job! it goes to show you that being "sh*te" as opposed to "absolutely sh"te" is an achievement when your Irish Politics! there are plenty of economists that would do a thousand times better job than Lenihan! What a solicitor and minister of finance have in common? answers on a postcard!

shoegirl

His big weakness seems to be a lack of indepth knowledge of the issues he is dealing with, for example, not knowing about documented problems and making decisions on things without that knowledge. Or is he actually ignoring it?

kennyb3

Idbatterim wrote: »

"Economy to grow in 2010 - BoI" thats the headline in business or rte. Im sick of hearing these optimistic forecasts, the last thing we need. Half the gobshi**s in this country are now going to believe it and rally more against any cuts in pay and services! Id like to know how they predict growth when! more people are leaving than entering the country, unemployment will increase, atleast 4billion will be taken out of the economy, sterling and the dollar will remain weak, housing output next year is put at only 10k units ( i think 30k were built this year?) there is probably more big points! I reckon we would be "lucky" to experience very modest growth by 2011 at the earliest! I actually think coming out of this recession early will be alot more damaging that good, the correction has a long way to go, the only ones going to benefit from an early recovery are those who need another good dose of medicine i.e cuts! i.e the PS!

only thing i can think of is that say for example the economy has shrunk 10% last year, 5% this year etc. that it gets to a much lower base and then its hard not to turn around to an extent ounce it gets so low. example figures used only

MG

Idbatterim wrote: »

an outstading job! it goes to show you that being "sh*te" as opposed to "absolutely sh"te" is an achievement when your Irish Politics! there are plenty of economists that would do a thousand times better job than Lenihan! What a solicitor and minister of finance have in common? answers on a postcard!

I didn't say he had done an outstanding job - I said he was the outstanding minister and qualified it by saying that it wasn't saying much.

Tipp Man

Idbatterim wrote: »

"Economy to grow in 2010 - BoI" thats the headline in business or rte. Im sick of hearing these optimistic forecasts, the last thing we need. Half the gobshi**s in this country are now going to believe it and rally more against any cuts in pay and services! Id like to know how they predict growth when! more people are leaving than entering the country, unemployment will increase, atleast 4billion will be taken out of the economy, sterling and the dollar will remain weak, housing output next year is put at only 10k units ( i think 30k were built this year?) there is probably more big points! I reckon we would be "lucky" to experience very modest growth by 2011 at the earliest! I actually think coming out of this recession early will be alot more damaging that good, the correction has a long way to go, the only ones going to benefit from an early recovery are those who need another good dose of medicine i.e cuts! i.e the PS!

There is quite a funny quote from Denis O Brien and his thoughts on academic economists in the Times today:)

He was also highly critical of academic economists, who he said were “writing blogs, twittering and taking out ads to stop Nama”.
“They are generally just making a nuisance of themselves which would be fine if they all predicted where we are now. But 99 per cent of them didn’t and the other 1 per cent predict doom all the time”.
Mr O’Brien also said that it was vital that 80 to 90 per cent of the Bord Snip report be implemented. He also questioned the need for 35 city and country enterprise boards, saying that Enterprise Ireland already had the skill levels.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/1016/1224256785874.html

Liam Byrne

Tipp Man wrote: »

My post was simply refering to the income tax and O'Conner's will to see higher earners taxed even more which as far as i am concerned is unjust

I don't want to get involved in yet another semantics debate, but just a quick "point of order"

Tipp Man wrote: »

In Ireland the vast majority of tax is paid by a small percentage of people so the rest don't really give a damn how its spent

Tax is tax, and the fixed-rate stealth taxes that someone on €20K a year has to pay take up a far bigger percentage of their wages than someone on €200K.

So isolating it to "income tax" while simultaneously quoting percentages is a little misleading.

To be fair, you also have people with bigger incomes, with more disposable income, paying DIRT tax on savings (which I accidentally omitted), and if they spend more, then they pay more VAT - in theory, anyway.

So don't get me wrong; I'm not dissing the gist of your post, since I don't have the complete figures, but sweeping statements re the rich paying bigger percentages of tax will only add to the ill-feeling that those on low wages already have re the fat-cats, and will impact on the decent folk who are in-between those two extremes.

All I'm saying is that it's fairer to include ALL taxes before making comparisons, not just income tax.

thebman

Idbatterim wrote: »

"Economy to grow in 2010 - BoI" thats the headline in business or rte. Im sick of hearing these optimistic forecasts, the last thing we need. Half the gobshi**s in this country are now going to believe it and rally more against any cuts in pay and services! Id like to know how they predict growth when! more people are leaving than entering the country, unemployment will increase, atleast 4billion will be taken out of the economy, sterling and the dollar will remain weak, housing output next year is put at only 10k units ( i think 30k were built this year?) there is probably more big points! I reckon we would be "lucky" to experience very modest growth by 2011 at the earliest! I actually think coming out of this recession early will be alot more damaging that good, the correction has a long way to go, the only ones going to benefit from an early recovery are those who need another good dose of medicine i.e cuts! i.e the PS!

Well it doesn't matter even if it does grow it won't grow by enough to fix the deficit so those people can either listen to that or fook off TBH because cuts have to occur.

MrMatisse

hes not the worse.

Much better than Cowen

Sand

He either believes what hes saying in which case he is laughably incompetent, or he doesnt in which case hes a liar and a thief.

Not really too concerned with which is worst.

starbelgrade

Tipp Man wrote: »

There is quite a funny quote from Denis O Brien and his thoughts on academic economists in the Times today:)

He was also highly critical of academic economists, who he said were “writing blogs, twittering and taking out ads to stop Nama”.
“They are generally just making a nuisance of themselves which would be fine if they all predicted where we are now.

You couldn't make that sh*t up. "Twittering"? Class.

thebman

starbelgrade wrote: »

You couldn't make that sh*t up. "Twittering"? Class.

lol whats funnier is many of these economists did predict we'd be where we are now.

They are just hoping if they repeat the lies enough, people will believe them.

Amhran Nua

Another thread on Lenihan here.