Harney warns of IMF intervention within 2yrs?

jimd2

graduate wrote: »

Judges absolutely have to be included in this. Pass the law and let it go to the Supreme Court, who will most likely uphold it as there is no intention to target judges any more than anyone else.



Do you mean reduce the portion above 80k by 15%?



Some of these should be looked at too e.g. coordinating the ITs in the Dublin area and looking at the mission of the Tipp Institute.

Yes - reduce portion above €80k by 15%.

Agree on the institutes etc. Probably needs to be reviewed on a case by case basis.

thebman

I think we need to look at education TBH. Since the economy has collapsed we are going to see less people immigrating over here and will probably see a natural reduction in teacher/pupil ratio and might need all these new teachers the greens are demanding until we recover to growth as people have less children in a developed economy because they are generally more career focused.

Worth looking into at the very least as if we need less primary school teachers, we will need less secondary and then less third level places for these kids.

bigstar

seriously, this is just more spin from the government in an effort to scare people into accepting cuts in the next budget. the IMF wont coming anywhere near ireland anytime soon.

i couldnt see the IMF sanctioning Pr. Drumm's bonus either or looking too favourably on ministers expenses, but we wont hear harney commenting on that. its not news its just spin.

jimmmy

bigstar wrote: »

seriously, this is just more spin from the government in an effort to scare people into accepting cuts in the next budget. the IMF wont coming anywhere near ireland anytime soon.

really? If you had money would you lend this country money? Do you think it would ever be paid back ? At the moment its costing our govt 4.5% to borrow money for 10 years. ( and our govt has promised to reduce expenditure by 4 billion a year, + get our finances in order, just to get that rate ). Its cost Germany 3%. That a 50% difference in the rate of interest. We are perceived to be riskier, methinks.;)
If foreign institutions stopped lending the 25 billion our govt is currently borrowing just to keep going, what would our govt do ?

bigstar

bigstar wrote: »

seriously, this is just more spin from the government in an effort to scare people into accepting cuts in the next budget. the IMF wont coming anywhere near ireland anytime soon.

i couldnt see the IMF sanctioning Pr. Drumm's bonus either or looking too favourably on ministers expenses, but we wont hear harney commenting on that. its not news its just spin.

So you think we should continue borrowing as we are and end up spending 2/3 of government income on *interest* of these debts alone by 2013?

ardmacha

I think we need to look at education TBH

Good that you actually want to look at the facts.

Since the economy has collapsed we are going to see less people immigrating over here and will probably see a natural reduction in teacher/pupil ratio and might need all these new teachers the greens are demanding until we recover to growth as people have less children in a developed economy because they are generally more career focused.

This theory is not founded in fact. We will see less immigration, but only if there is a large amount of emigration and people take their children with them will there be a decline in the numbers. But most emigrants will be single 20 year olds. The numbers won't hit 3rd level for a while, but there isn't going to a decline in numbers.

We have the highest birthrate in the EU. We do not have the highest education spending in the EU.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0831/breaking31.htm

"The number of births registered in the State last year was the highest since the end of the 19th century, according to the latest data from the Central Statistics Office.

The figures, published today, show there were 75,065 births registered in 2008, the highest number since 1896 when there were 75,332 births registered in the 26 counties."

bigstar

i never said anything about what cuts should or shouldnt be made. i said this was an obvious attempt to scare the public. but believe harney if you want, ill see you in dustbowl post IMF ireland. should be fun times.

of course government expenditure will have to be reconciled with revenue, but i dont like the knee jerk reaction here and in the press that unless the greedy public sector fckers swallow cuts were all going under.

Noreen1

Does this 4 Billion reduction include the projected cost of NAMA?
If so, what percentage of the 4 Billion is NAMA costing?

It seems to me that we are being bombarded with information - but no detail?
Or have I just missed the detail, amidst all the political bickering that's going on?

I seem to remember rather a lot of prophecies about how "Brutal" the emergency Budget was going to be. This led to a huge sigh of relief from the sectors that were not affected - and led to the kind of Public vs Private sector bickering that has so effectively prevented any real constructive action/thought by the Electorate.

I suspect this Budget is is going to be truly brutal - and the Government is preparing us well in advance, in the hope of preventing mass protests come December.

What is needed now is a Coalition of ALL the Unions - together with some independent economists. If such a coalition could be arranged, then, an alternative economic strategy might actually be arrived at.

If we continue to bicker senselessly among ourselves, then the Political Establishment will continue to do what it has been doing best for the last number of years..... ie. Treat us like fools!

Noreen

Het-Field

Problem is the Social Welfare, and Public Sector bugests amount to a combined 55-65 Billion Euro.. Without adequate cuts the country will spiral into a unmanagable situation (if it is not in such a situation already), which will guarantee IMF intervention.

The public sector is overbloated. Sadly, unlike in 1996, when the PDs advocated a plan for re-deployment, re-alignment, and voluntary redundancies, with chances to diverify, upskill, and return to education, the country no longer has the money to do that. In stark terms, voluntary public sector redundancies, will simply send people to the unemployment line. Which means they will continue to be paid by the state, just at reduced levels.

The moster which has been created must be culled. However, culling it at this stage wont have anywhere near the impact it could have had in 1996/1997. At very least, I would like to see an independent report, with a true reflection

Social welfare must be carefully considered. An example of crap economic management was the decision to cull the Christmas bonus. I know that those who are reliant on social welfare would prefer a graduated cut, at a greater level, as opposed to a one off cut, which causes a greater hardship at a time when money is at a premium, and it would be guaranteed to be placed back into the economy. It is a disincentive to spend at a time which could be useful vis-a-vis job creation, and a relatively sharp pick up in sales.

In terms of the Health system, the 6 Billion Budget should be cut back by 2.5 Billion. This must occur on the back of a reorder of the HSE, which ensures it is not a monster organisation, which was created at the same time of Bertie's "socialist" phase, where any chance of redundancies was obliterated by his hubris.

Unfortunatly, the wanton waste, and overexpenditure on NDP projects, the HSE, E-voting etc will not be recoverable. However, it should be a lesson to future projects. It is not acceptable that because we were aflush with money, we should accept.

I would advocate a Supreme Court intervention vis-a-vis the Seanad, and if it is suspendable. Abolition can onl come by virtue of a plebacite, which will not be proffered by the Government, or opposition, who have too many friends sitting in it. The likely phasing out of the House of Lords in the UK should be a lesson to our Upper House. It serves far less of a purpose then the HOL, and there are far less educated people in the Seanad. It is now a rest-home for failed Dail candidates.

dan_d

I've flicked through this thread (and the Irish times, just to annoy myself) in the last hour, and I was all set for a rant, until I got to ghost_ie's comment, about the IMF coming in, making the cuts, FF blaming them, and then we vote FF back in.Stopped me cold, coz it's just so true!God, we're thick.
Back on topic however - I can't believe it's taken this long for our stupid ministers to come out and say "this is what we have to do". While I have nothing but contempt for Mary Harney, at the best of times, she is absolutely right.The timeframe mightn't be right (2 yrs, was it?) about when the IMF would come in - but I have spoken to several people in financial positions, both public and private in the last few months, and the general consensus is that if we don't get our act together and cut public spending, the IMF will come in. And they'll do it for us. And they will not listen to unions or worry about "social partnerships" or scratch anyone's back. Slash and burn will take on a whole new meaning.
You can call it scaremongering if you like I suppose...personally I'd just call the plain truth (not something we're used to hearing from the current gov. Amazing what it takes to get them to tell the truth). We need to stop being delusional here. We're all facing pay cuts.I have absolutely no doubt that the public service is going to find itself in flinders after the next budget.And there does need to be a sliding scale. I completely agree that it has GOT to start with the biggest cuts at the top, for every single person there. But it's got to happen. How on earth do people think we can possibly maintain this??That National Debt they spent the last 10 years driving down?? Well, (and I don't know specific numbers, so this is just an estimation), I'm guessing that if we continue the way we are, we'll just be right back to where we started before the Celtic Tiger. And undo the one small amount of good that came out of all this.
We no longer have the money to sustain our wages. I work in the private sector. Every single person I know has taken a min of 10% paycut, if they haven't lost their jobs.And it's "here's the paycut or there's the door". No negotiation at all. People can whinge all they like about the cost of living, but the point is that the cost of living will drop, as people have less and less money. And it is going to hurt a lot for a year or so, but it will happen. The one major problem is mortgages. The Gov have allowed the situation to develop where there are massive mortgages, so I do agree there needs to be some sort of system put in place to support these people (including myself, I might point out) who take pay cuts but still have huge mortgages.
Bottom line is we are being forewarned of what is certainly to come. Again, no doubt about that. The question is will we be big enough to stand up and deal with it, or are we going to run around listening to unions whinging and whining again. It's got to start substantially at the top, otherwise it will just not be credible.

_Kooli_

If the IMF come in im going.
If FF or the Greens are ever in again im going.

I think i'll be staying though, because neither of those 2 things are going to happen for a long long time.

Its just smoke and mirrors, FF style. Watch my right hand dance while the left hands picks your pocket.

jimmmy

Noreen1 wrote: »

I suspect this Budget is is going to be truly brutal - and the Government is preparing us well in advance, in the hope of preventing mass protests come December.

As the govt has hinted, it will be brutal in the long term unless there are brutal cuts in the public service in December...

Noreen1 wrote: »

What is needed now is a Coalition of ALL the Unions - together with some independent economists. If such a coalition could be arranged, then, an alternative economic strategy might actually be arrived at.

Its called congress, but what do they know about economics + the common good ?
Go ahead good luck trying to find an alternative economic strategy, but be aware of the damage the unions have done to our economy by arriving with the highest known p.s. pay in the world.

_Kooli_

jimmmy wrote: »

As the govt has hinted, it will be brutal in the long term unless there are brutal cuts in the public service in December...



Its called congress, but what do they know about economics + the common good ?
Go ahead good luck trying to find an alternative economic strategy, but be aware of the damage the unions have done to our economy by arriving with the highest known p.s. pay in the world.

Its going to need more than public sector cuts.
I think we all know this, but we try to lay it all on the public sectors door.
Dont delude yourself. Try as you might to make sure the public sector take all our pain for us - and you are trying by god. The public sector wont be the only ones getting hit.

Diarmuid

Noreen1 wrote: »

What is needed now is a Coalition of ALL the Unions - together with some independent economists. If such a coalition could be arranged, then, an alternative economic strategy might actually be arrived at.

There are plenty of independent economists already giving their opinion on the situation. The problem is, their opinion doesn't sit well with the union view so you're not going to see any grand coalition any time soon.

Also, the unions cannot be part of the alternative strategy because they are part of the current strategy that got us in the mess.

jimmmy

_Kooli_ wrote: »

Its going to need more than public sector cuts.
I think we all know this, but we try to lay it all on the public sectors door.
Dont delude yourself. Try as you might to make sure the public sector take all our pain for us - and you are trying by god. The public sector wont be the only ones getting hit.

Considering the economic apartheid system at the moment, its about time they ( the public sector ) started taking a hit - a real hit, not a deferral of pay in to a pension levy. Why should they have better pay, pensions, job security, hours worked, etc ?

_Kooli_

jimmmy wrote: »

Considering the economic apartheid system at the moment, its about time they ( the public sector ) started taking a hit - a real hit, not a deferral of pay in to a pension levy. Why should they have better pay, pensions, job security, hours worked, etc ?

Actually they dont.
I know thats a bitter pill to swallow, but there is no hard like for like comparisons of positions in the Irish private sector and Irish public sector anywhere.

ie nurse with 25 years experience (public) vs nurse with 25 years experience (private)
or
IT manager of 30 people with 15 years experience vs the same in the private sector

or something like that

If there is, post a link.

Its too broad comparing whole sectors. It just doesnt work. Because you and i cannot compare our own or similar situations with those in the public sector.

I for one would not like to have the equivalent job with the experience i have in the public sector (one of my friends has the very same job in the public sector). They can keep it.

But we are all going to suffer. Make no mistake. I can see the minimum wage and the dole being taxed soon too.

cyclopath2001

_Kooli_ wrote: »

Its just smoke and mirrors, FF style. Watch my right hand dance while the left hands picks your pocket.

+1, it's helping distract from the great bank bailout and NAMA swindle.

thebman

_Kooli_ wrote: »

But we are all going to suffer. Make no mistake. I can see the minimum wage and the dole being taxed soon too.

These two things are going to have to happen alright.

Wages across all government departments need to be cut in some way if they have not already been cut (I'd say some have, some contractors are gone).

One dance of death is contracts with private companies that if they go could kill those companies. Government needs to look at the tax take from that company and see if it is actually making a profit overall in tax take by keeping that contract as the smaller other contracts that company might have might make it worth keeping that contract to keep people off the dole queues.

We'll have to wait and see. No point worrying about it but the problem with building up to it like FF are is this will send everyone into don't spend, harsh budget coming mode and the economy will continue to suffer.

Amhran Nua

Why would anyone tax the dole? Its paid for out of the tax coffers, just reduce it.

_Kooli_

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Why would anyone tax the dole? Its paid for out of the tax coffers, just reduce it.

Easier to tax it. Its about perception. Tell them they are getting €200 but there is 10% tax deducted so hand them over €180.

Tax it and it is seen as doing good for the country. Reduce it and they'll be all on about human rights and all that crap. Net effect is the same though.

Now they can all say to the dole officer - "I pay your wages you know."

murphaph

_Kooli_ wrote: »

Its going to need more than public sector cuts.
I think we all know this, but we try to lay it all on the public sectors door.
Dont delude yourself. Try as you might to make sure the public sector take all our pain for us - and you are trying by god. The public sector wont be the only ones getting hit.

You're right, the private sector is already taking a battering, hence the massive unemployment

murphaph

_Kooli_ wrote: »

Easier to tax it. Its about perception. Tell them they are getting €200 but there is 10% tax deducted so hand them over €180.

Tax it and it is seen as doing good for the country. Reduce it and they'll be all on about human rights and all that crap. Net effect is the same though.

Now they can all say to the dole officer - "I pay your wages you know."

The net effect may be the same to the recipient but it costs more to administer and this is the sort of wasteful public service practice we should be trying to eliminate!

_Kooli_

murphaph wrote: »

The net effect may be the same to the recipient but it costs more to administer and this is the sort of wasteful public service practice we should be trying to eliminate!

How would it cost more to administer? Please break it down for us?
Couldnt be simpler.

eoinbn

I think it would be useful for Prime Time to do a show on the IMF, and the likely effects if they did come into Ireland. It's hard to get info on how it works. From what I gather the government stays in place but is given a fixed budget, as they can only borrow from the IMF, and has to govern with a very right wing agenda. Everything is based around getting exports competitive at the cost of gutting 'irrelevant' services- there are figures about X million children have died in IMF countries due to very small health budgets.

Of course there is the chance that the EU will not want the IMF running a euro-zone country and might step in instead, however that would send out a very dangerous signal to other countries. If other countries believe their is a safety net they also might live the highlife for 10 years and then just wait for German tax payers to bail them out.

murphaph

_Kooli_ wrote: »

How would it cost more to administer? Please break it down for us?
Couldnt be simpler.

Because by taxing it instead of just reducing it at source, you needlessly involve another government dept. (revenue). Revenue have to make staff available to process the tax returns. It would also require additional work by the Dept of social welfare as they'd have to act like a PAYE employer and deduct the tax, before sending it on to revenue, only for them to send it back to the Exchequer. All this money pushing requires staff and if dole recipients are taxed, they can also take up the time of Revenue staff by needing information etc.

Can you not see how much extra needless work you propose?

irish_bob

jimd2 wrote: »

I hear very little talk about the "non resident" millionaires who avoid paying tax just because of all of the loop holes presided over by Bertie & co. Bertie actually canvassed Lenihan after the last budget to keep these guys out of the tax loop.

What also about the consultants & the judges? Surely if the higher paid civil servants have to take a cut then these guys should be included.

I would suggest the following cuts to public sector pay. To include pensions.

Salaries up to €40K - reduce by 5%
€40-€80K - reduce by 10% all earnings above €40k - rest by 5%
€80-120k - reduce the portion above 80k by 10%
€120-160k reduce the portion above €120k by 20%
Earnings above €160 to be reduced by 25%

Also take a serious knife to the quangos such as those identified on Prime Time a few months ago. Knife through expenses for politicians, county councillors. Implement all McCarthy recommendations except education ones.

Reduce pension and social welfare payments by 5%.

Scrap the Senate.

Introduce a new tax rate for earnings above €80.

education cannot be exempt , one area which wont have any negative effects is the closing of some rural schools , in the parish where i live , thier are three primary schools within a four mile radius , the largest one in the centre of the local village has 70 pupils , the one which is a stones throw from me has 32 pupils ( two teachers and one special needs ) and the smallest school has 25 pupils , were theese three schools to be merged into the largest school , the furthest distance any pupil would have to travel to school is three miles , this situtation is repeated all over the country

_Kooli_

murphaph wrote: »

Because by taxing it instead of just reducing it at source, you needlessly involve another government dept. (revenue). Revenue have to make staff available to process the tax returns. It would also require additional work by the Dept of social welfare as they'd have to act like a PAYE employer and deduct the tax, before sending it on to revenue, only for them to send it back to the Exchequer. All this money pushing requires staff and if dole recipients are taxed, they can also take up the time of Revenue staff by needing information etc.

Can you not see how much extra needless work you propose?

I think you are over complicating it here. Good thing you arent organizing it.

Mr.Micro

If Harney is right and we get the IMF then why bother with this NAMA scam and we will have 90 billion saved. This whole economic mess clearly cannot be sorted by this Government and NAMA may sort out the banks and the poor developers but the rest of the economy is in tatters and Harney probably longs for the IMF to sort out it out.

Diarmuid

_Kooli_ wrote: »

I think you are over complicating it here.

No I think he's just telling it like it is.

#15

_Kooli_ wrote: »

I think you are over complicating it here. Good thing you arent organizing it.

No he isn't. Its the same with PS pension levy. They were as well just to cut the pay instead of imposing a levy.

At least that would bring the salary levels down. Its is pointless giving money to someone, just to take it back.

Its much simpler and more efficient to just not give it to them.

Murph is not over complicating it, he is simplifying it.