eamonn gilmore on the frontline.

starbelgrade · 21-10-2009 1:44am

The last time Labour had a leader with any charisma or voting sway was Dick Spring. The last time they had a leader with any real conviction or political ideals was..... hmmm. Though that last sentence could apply to any party, except perhaps Sinn Fein.

starbelgrade · 21-10-2009 1:46am

meglome wrote: »

There's no hope of me voting for Labour if they don't start coming clean.

If you had to vote on the choice of which party comes clean, you wouldn't have a whole lot of choices.

PomBear · 21-10-2009 1:51am

Soldie wrote: »

Are you suggesting that RTE should be biased?

No but they know they know where their money's coming from

meglome · 21-10-2009 1:52am

starbelgrade wrote: »

If you had to vote on the choice of which party comes clean, you wouldn't have a whole lot of choices.

The party (or persons) who I feel are being the most honest and showing the most wherewithal will get my vote. True it might be a short list.

21-10-2009 1:53am

Euro_Kraut wrote: »

I do think that actually. But its my opinion not a fact. Get it?

By the by, I have a Masters in Economics.

Masters.so what? I presume hedge fund managers in square mile had more qualifications in econmics and see how many of them messed up. If I messed up to the extent that the finicial sector messed up.I'd be struck off.

MaceFace · 21-10-2009 9:31am

meglome wrote: »

The party (or persons) who I feel are being the most honest and showing the most wherewithal will get my vote. True it might be a short list.

Unfortunately I think this is FF as they are following through with what they are saying - whether you like what they are saying or not.
It is very easy for the likes of Gilmore to say he would achieve savings through overtime and reform (when there is no overtime anymore and reform never gave savings). What he says now might get him into power but once he is in there, either he goes back on his promises or Ireland gets a whole lot worse!

10000maniacs · 21-10-2009 9:36am

Sand wrote: »

10000maniacs
BUT - in voting against Lenihans disastrous, boneheaded, poorly informed and thought out guarantee of not only deposits, but also bonds Labour made the right decision. Lenihans policy was perhaps the most rushed, dumbest decision made in the crisis, and the entire government policy since then has been rushing around trying to react to the sheer scale of the stupidity of the blanket guarantee.
.

The day Lenihan announced the guarantee, I had booked the morning off to transfer my savings from Irish Nationwide to HBOS. When Lenihan made the guarantee speech I cancelled my morning off.
I'm sure a couple of hundred thousand like minded people were planning a similar move that morning. If it wasn't for the Irish bank-guarantee, we would have an Iceland type situation here. Thats how important the Irish bank-guarantee was at the time. (And why it was rushed through). He had only a matter of hours to react. One of the econonomic commentators at the time said that we were only hours from bankruptcy.

GUIGuy · 21-10-2009 11:20am

The public absolutely needed that reassurance in those crazy days... I witnessed secretaries in a state of sheer panic back then - they calmed down with the guarantee. The bond holders? Well this is an interesting one... many have said the bond holders should take the hit, they knew the risks etc. I agree strongly in principal... but principal and pragmatism are generally far apart. But who are they and what 'might' happen if the govt said 'oops sorry' to them?

In the majority they are (our) pension funds, other banks/institutions and govts.

Possible Alternative Scenario (just for fun... but not so far fetched!)

1. Rumblings on the street that the banks are in trouble, general public and insitutions begin to panic and withdraw large amounts of money(as happened)
2. Irish banks hold emergency meeting MoF(joan Burton) and inform her they will fold next week (as happened... except it was BL).

3. Joan Burton govt issues guarantee to cover all customer deposits, but not insitutional deposits and she tells bond holders to feck off. She declares it would be socially unacceptable to guaruntee international capitalists... posits that her firm stand has reduced the theoretical 'liability' of guaruntee (but don't worry we won't actually have to pay it)

4. Public panic averted for a day or two. The Irish Times and 'social partners' shout "here here!"

5. Insitutions continue to withdraw money. Bond holders vent fury, but suck it up. Banks hold second emergency meeting with MoF... they need immediate support because they will not be able to cover customer deposits as insitutions have withdrawn their funds.

6. Public panicked again, run begins on banks irrespective of guaruntee.

7. Govt have to actually pay for the guaruntee that previously only was a theoretical liability.

8. Govt has no money to actually pay for this guaruntee. Joan Burton appeals to international institutions and bondholders for money. They politely say "feck off... you diodn't back us, we won't back you".

9. Joan goes cap in hand ECB. ECB asks why she broke agreement not to let any systematic euro area bank fail.
They say a quick 'theoretical' guaruntee for all would have averted this disaster. She whimpers that she wanted a smaller potential liability but events overtook us & we've ended up with a very real bill we can't pay.

10. Our Euro partners are quite busy with their own banking problems. They say that they can issue funds to nationalise some but not all the banks (competition rules).

11. We have already breached ECB borrowing limits so we must raise the funds to rescue the remaining banks ourselves. There will be no EU aid to cover customer deposits.

12. Unrest in Ireland. Joan Burton nationalises all banks by expropriation rather than purchase. Customer withdrawls from accounts/ATMs limited.

13. International community uses anti terrorist legisation to freeze all Irish assets (same as Iceland). Eamon Gilmore denounces the move and asks the IMF for help. Sure... but there are conditions! See how Serbia's public sector faired!

Ok, it's a fiction but even though I hated that we have to 'guaruntee' those bond holders who freely entered into a risky deals... to do otherwise 'might' have had far worse results.

A stitch in time saves nine!

10000maniacs · 21-10-2009 1:18pm

GUIGuy wrote: »

The public absolutely needed that reassurance in those crazy days... I witnessed secretaries in a state of sheer panic back then - they calmed down with the guarantee. The bond holders? Well this is an interesting one... many have said the bond holders should take the hit, they knew the risks etc. I agree strongly in principal... but principal and pragmatism are generally far apart. But who are they and what 'might' happen if the govt said 'oops sorry' to them?

In the majority they are (our) pension funds, other banks/institutions and govts.

Possible Alternative Scenario (just for fun... but not so far fetched!)

1. Rumblings on the street that the banks are in trouble, general public and insitutions begin to panic and withdraw large amounts of money(as happened)
2. Irish banks hold emergency meeting MoF(joan Burton) and inform her they will fold next week (as happened... except it was BL).
3. Joan Burton govt issues guarantee to cover all customer deposits, but not insitutional deposits and she tells bond holders to feck off. She declares it would be socially unacceptable to guaruntee international capitalists... posits that her firm stand has reduced the theoretical 'liability' of guaruntee (but don't worry we won't actually have to pay it)

4. Public panic averted for a day or two. The Irish Times and 'social partners' shout "here here!"

5. Insitutions continue to withdraw money. Bond holders vent fury, but suck it up. Banks hold second emergency meeting with MoF... they need immediate support because they will not be able to cover customer deposits as insitutions have withdrawn their funds.

6. Public panicked again, run begins on banks irrespective of guaruntee.

7. Govt have to actually pay for the guaruntee that previously only was a theoretical liability.

8. Govt has no money to actually pay for this guaruntee. Joan Burton appeals to international institutions and bondholders for money. They politely say "feck off... you diodn't back us, we won't back you".

9. Joan goes cap in hand ECB. ECB asks why she broke agreement not to let any systematic euro area bank fail.
They say a quick 'theoretical' guaruntee for all would have averted this disaster. She whimpers that she wanted a smaller potential liability but events overtook us & we've ended up with a very real bill we can't pay.

10. Our Euro partners are quite busy with their own banking problems. They say that they can issue funds to nationalise some but not all the banks (competition rules).

11. We have already breached ECB borrowing limits so we must raise the funds to rescue the remaining banks ourselves. There will be no EU aid to cover customer deposits.

12. Unrest in Ireland. Joan Burton nationalises all banks by expropriation rather than purchase. Customer withdrawls from accounts/ATMs limited.

13. International community uses anti terrorist legisation to freeze all Irish assets (same as Iceland). Eamon Gilmore denounces the move and asks the IMF for help. Sure... but there are conditions! See how Serbia's public sector faired!

Ok, it's a fiction but even though I hated that we have to 'guaruntee' those bond holders who freely entered into a risky deals... to do otherwise 'might' have had far worse results.

A stitch in time saves nine!

At last, somebody with a grasp. Cheers GUIGuy.;)
By the way Euro_Kraut is probably going through your post looking for syntactical errors.:rolleyes:

Euro_Kraut · 21-10-2009 1:25pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Masters.so what? I presume hedge fund managers in square mile had more qualifications in econmics and see how many of them messed up. If I messed up to the extent that the finicial sector messed up.I'd be struck off.

It was a response to another poster who suggested that I had 'Group Cert* level knowledge of Economics'.

I think it was reasonable to respond to that baiting and just because other with similar qualifications may have done a poor job recently does not undermine my Masters. In the same way just because some Doctors are incompetent it does not mean others should training is invalidated.

*The old name for Junior Cert as far as I know

Euro_Kraut · 21-10-2009 1:27pm

10000maniacs wrote: »

At last, somebody with a grasp. Cheers GUIGuy.;)
By the way Euro_Kraut is probably going through your post looking for syntactical errors.:rolleyes:

You stated your own opinion as an expilct fact. That is not a 'syntactical error'. It is dishonesty.

I do not think that should be left unchallanged. Do you?

irish_bob · 21-10-2009 2:27pm

dresden8 wrote: »

Ah, the old chestnut, c. 300k public servants foisted a FF government on 1.8 million private sector workers.

Keep pushing it out there bob.

way to take my post out of context , i was pointing to labours recent large increase in popularity , never mentioned previous elections

irish_bob · 21-10-2009 2:28pm

meglome wrote: »

You know in may ways I like Eamonn Gilmore, I think he really is one of our better politicians. The problem is Labour cannot afford to really tell the harsh truth to many of the people who might vote for them. I watched him on the Frontline and honestly he's talking nonsense. I don't know a huge amount about economics but my maths is perfectly good. Anyone who is suggesting that some sticky plasters will fix our finances (and especially the public service pay bill) is talking straight out of their arse. It's a shame really because we desperately need our politicians to tell the harsh truth so we can face up to it.

gilmore cannot come down hard on public sector pay , the public sector are all labour have , no party can turn on thier base and remain a force , fine gael have no such excuse yet despite this have been incredibly timid on public sector pay cuts

evercloserunion · 21-10-2009 3:19pm

Pretending that we can come out of this crisis without having to feel any pain is populism, yes. What is equally if not more populist is claiming that
a) the public sector is to blame for all our troubles, and
b) savagely attacking public sector workers in terms of job security and pay would not have any negative side effects (wave of mortgage defaults, increased dole bill, complete breakdown in delivery of some essential services etc).

Some of the tripe I have seen in this thread and elsewhere on teh internetz where everyone is an expert at everything is far more populist than anything I have heard from Gilmore. At least Labour are trying to justify their alternative (and they *are* trying to justify it even if you are not listening) and not just saying "GRAAARRR PUBLIC SEKTUR GRARRRR"

Taxipete29 · 21-10-2009 3:35pm

irish_bob wrote: »

gilmore cannot come down hard on public sector pay , the public sector are all labour have , no party can turn on thier base and remain a force , fine gael have no such excuse yet despite this have been incredibly timid on public sector pay cuts

The public sector have been voting FF for years now, the majority anyway.

The simple fact is that Labour wont be in power to reduce the PS wage bill so they can afford to be timid about it. FF will have to do it. If and when FG and Labour get into power then alot of the wage cuts will already be implemented.

Unless there is some major split in FF this government is going to run its full term. The opposition can afford to play politics until an election is called. No opposition party is going to reveal all their intentions until the voters can actually decide on them. Thats politics.

irish_bob · 21-10-2009 3:45pm

Taxipete29 wrote: »

The public sector have been voting FF for years now, the majority anyway.

The simple fact is that Labour wont be in power to reduce the PS wage bill so they can afford to be timid about it. FF will have to do it. If and when FG and Labour get into power then alot of the wage cuts will already be implemented.

Unless there is some major split in FF this government is going to run its full term. The opposition can afford to play politics until an election is called. No opposition party is going to reveal all their intentions until the voters can actually decide on them. Thats politics.

labour stand to gain by opposing public sector pay cuts , i believe fine gael stand to gain by supporting public sector pay cuts more agressivley than fianna fail are , the question is why fine gael are not doing this

Euro_Kraut · 21-10-2009 3:58pm

irish_bob wrote: »

labour stand to gain by opposing public sector pay cuts , i believe fine gael stand to gain by supporting public sector pay cuts more agressivley than fianna fail are , the question is why fine gael are not doing this

From a poltical point of view I think its pretty obvious,

A. They are need Labour to form the next Government
B. They risk losing their traditional support base among Teachers and Gardai

bridgitt · 21-10-2009 4:12pm

Euro_Kraut wrote: »

From a poltical point of view I think its pretty obvious,

A. They are need Labour to form the next Government
B. They risk losing their traditional support base among Teachers and Gardai

Some teachers and Gardai know public sector pay cuts are necessary for the good of the country. Why are Fine Gael not going with the majority in the country, who realise we cannot go on borrowing to support government spending ? F.G. risk losing those people who look at economics in a realistic way.

DJDC · 21-10-2009 4:19pm

Kenny did an excellent job at exposing Gilmore's populist rhetoric and showing that Labour's approach towards the massive leech sucking the life out of the nation's finances is to hold off or increase taxes.I despise FF and I have never voted for them but I respect Lenihan for having the balls to do whats right for the country.He knows that any further increase in taxes on high earners will have a negative effect through turning away enterprise and employment.If he makes the right decision and slashes PS pay and entitlements this Dec, he will go down in history as one of the best Finance ministers we have ever had. And you know what...a huge section of the PS will still vote FF/FG because lots of nurses, gardai, civil servants come from gombeen FF/FG families so Gilmore is not only wasting a valuable political platform but probably wasting his time as well.

Taxipete29 · 21-10-2009 4:34pm

irish_bob wrote: »

labour stand to gain by opposing public sector pay cuts , i believe fine gael stand to gain by supporting public sector pay cuts more agressivley than fianna fail are , the question is why fine gael are not doing this

If FG begin to start supporting FF policy, people will start to ask why would we vote for them if its just more of the same. The fact is the worst thing FG could do now from a political point of view is to start agreeing with the Government.

Taxipete29 · 21-10-2009 4:42pm

DJDC wrote: »

Kenny did an excellent job at exposing Gilmore's populist rhetoric and showing that Labour's approach towards the massive leech sucking the life out of the nation's finances is to hold off or increase taxes.I despise FF and I have never voted for them but I respect Lenihan for having the balls to do whats right for the country.He knows that any further increase in taxes on high earners will have a negative effect through turning away enterprise and employment.If he makes the right decision and slashes PS pay and entitlements this Dec, he will go down in history as one of the best Finance ministers we have ever had. And you know what...a huge section of the PS will still vote FF/FG because lots of nurses, gardai, civil servants come from gombeen FF/FG families so Gilmore is not only wasting a valuable political platform but probably wasting his time as well.

I am dying to know how Enda exposed anything?? Please enlighten me.

Labour have remained relatively quiet on the whole PS pay issue because they know what needs to be done but they are not going to actively pursue it as a policy. Why?? because they dont have to. Gilmore has spoken many times about the need for PS reform. Thats as far as he needs to go. Its only when asked direct questions about PS pay do you really hear anything at all form him on the subject. Meanwhile he continues to hammer on at the Government about NAMA, education, health etc. Its called being in opposition. Its one of the few advantages. You dont actually have to make the hard choices.

I sometimes wonder do people understand politics at all. Sometimes its not about telling people what they want to hear. Its about about not telling them what they dont want to hear

DJDC · 21-10-2009 4:49pm

I am not talking about Inda.

Euro_Kraut · 21-10-2009 5:04pm

bridgitt wrote: »

Some teachers and Gardai know public sector pay cuts are necessary for the good of the country. Why are Fine Gael not going with the majority in the country, who realise we cannot go on borrowing to support government spending?

I believe on account of the political reasons I listed above. I have no better suggestions. To be honest I am surpirse FG haven't been stronger on the issue too.

Taxipete29 · 21-10-2009 5:42pm

DJDC wrote: »

I am not talking about Inda.

Apologies, my mistake. Thats what happens when you forget which thread your on and dont refer to the title. Lol

I didnt see it. Must go and look at the website and have a look at it.

irish_bob · 21-10-2009 9:38pm

Euro_Kraut wrote: »

From a poltical point of view I think its pretty obvious,

A. They are need Labour to form the next Government
B. They risk losing their traditional support base among Teachers and Gardai

the gardai and teacher vote is not that big to a party like fine gael

Lockstep · 21-10-2009 9:39pm

Seriously now; Eamon Gilmore is populist?
He's been as equally left wing as he was when he took over the Labour party except it wasn't as popular then. He sticks to his guns in the bad times and gets labeled a populist.

irish_bob wrote: »

gilmore cannot come down hard on public sector pay , the public sector are all labour have

not actually true from the last report I read; basically that the biggest voting block Labour has is the unskilled working class, followed by the lower middle class (Labour gets a lot of votes in inner city Dublin, up to 1/3 IIRC)

irish_bob · 21-10-2009 9:40pm

Taxipete29 wrote: »

If FG begin to start supporting FF policy, people will start to ask why would we vote for them if its just more of the same. The fact is the worst thing FG could do now from a political point of view is to start agreeing with the Government.

i disagree , like with lisbon , most right minded people will see it as supporting what is best for the country

Taxipete29 · 21-10-2009 9:53pm

irish_bob wrote: »

i disagree , like with lisbon , most right minded people will see it as supporting what is best for the country

There was a difference though. Lisbon needed all-party support to guarantee it would be passed. FG dont have to publically support anything because FF dont need them to pass anything. What might be best for the country is not necessarily best for FG in order to get them into power next election.

Sand · 22-10-2009 1:20am

@1000 maniacs

The day Lenihan announced the guarantee, I had booked the morning off to transfer my savings from Irish Nationwide to HBOS. When Lenihan made the guarantee speech I cancelled my morning off

.

How does this change my opinion of you or my opinion of Lenihans open ended guarantee to bank bondholders when he had no ****ing idea whatsoever of what he was guaranteeing and when Lenihan still has no ****ing idea whatsoever of what he is guaranteeing?

Guaranteeing on my behalf by the way.

I'm sure a couple of hundred thousand like minded people were planning a similar move that morning.

Like minded? Thats one description for them.

If it wasn't for the Irish bank-guarantee, we would have an Iceland type situation here.

Iceland is not Ireland. Vastly different situations.

And why it was rushed through). He had only a matter of hours to react. One of the econonomic commentators at the time said that we were only hours from bankruptcy.

Here you go with this *we* **** again. *We* werent hours from bankruptcy. Your bank was because they were ****ing incompetent. I speak as someone with a fair amount in my bank account and I still dont buy this **** that I as an Irish citizen was somehow acting as a last resort lender for your ****ty banks balance sheet. Move your deposits to a bank that isnt run like a ****ing circus if you want it safe. Lenihan made a ****ing despicably stupid decision and Irish government policy since then has been reacting to the sheer, gross, moronic stupidity of the blanket guarantee, not only on deposits but also on investment instruments like bonds.
@GUIGuy

Possible Alternative Scenario (just for fun... but not so far fetched!)

Yeah, its also a possible alternative scenario (just for fun... but not so far fetched!) that Brian Lenihan takes 54 billion to Las Vegas for a double or nothing bet. Oh wait, hes already doing that...NAMA.

@1000 Maniacs

At last, somebody with a grasp. Cheers GUIGuy.

Must be a relief to find somebody on your level alright.

@DJDC

I despise FF and I have never voted for them but I respect Lenihan for having the balls to do whats right for the country.

FFS - Lenihan has the balls to do whats right for the banks, in direct opposition for whats right foor the county.

@Kickoutthejams

Seriously now; Eamon Gilmore is populist?
He's been as equally left wing as he was when he took over the Labour party except it wasn't as popular then. He sticks to his guns in the bad times and gets labeled a populist.

He tells people bull**** when he must know the truth himself - remember, the biggest factor in the unpopularity of Fianna Fail post 2002 was that they were perceived to have lied about the economy in the leadup to the 2002 election ( in that they accelerated spending by 22% in 2002 prior to the election, and then yanked it right back to sane levels after they had been re-elected). Gilmore is making the same mistake when he tells people that 34 billion in income can support 55 billion in spending indefinitly.

Lockstep · 22-10-2009 8:34am

Sand wrote: »

He tells people bull**** when he must know the truth himself - remember, the biggest factor in the unpopularity of Fianna Fail post 2002 was that they were perceived to have lied about the economy in the leadup to the 2002 election ( in that they accelerated spending by 22% in 2002 prior to the election, and then yanked it right back to sane levels after they had been re-elected). Gilmore is making the same mistake when he tells people that 34 billion in income can support 55 billion in spending indefinitly.

Ah but if he's been saying similar things in different circumstances then he can hardly be accused of populism. That would require him to tell people exactly what they wanted to hear, and in 2007 we were still in Celtic Tiger mode, and yet he was still being his usual self.
Labour's support has gone up since then but was static at the time.

eamonn gilmore on the frontline.

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