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Where do you think Ireland will be in 2013???

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  • 24-10-2009 10:27am
    #1
    population
    Registered Users Posts: 1,509 ✭✭✭


    Do you think it is possible things will actually be looking up for the country at that stage or do you think we are just in a negative spiral that could last 20 years or something equally grim?


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    #2
    diverdriver
    Closed Accounts Posts: 987 ✭✭✭diverdriver


    Well historically we're were in a negative spiral since independance in 1922 until I would say 1997. On that basis we have 75 years until the next boom. Ireland is normally in recession even when the rest of the world is booming. So 2013 will be same if not worse. Better get used to it.

    I grew up with it so it seems normal to me.


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    #3
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    there wont be a republic of Ireland

    our sovereignty would be handed to the IMF

    it would be a former republic of Ireland


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    #4
    Eoinsheehy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 54 ✭✭Eoinsheehy


    Yeeeeeaaaaaaaaa negativity

    Maybe there should be a warning on forums that they contain negativity


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    #5
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    Eoinsheehy wrote: »
    Yeeeeeaaaaaaaaa negativity

    Maybe there should be a warning on forums that they contain negativity

    do you know the location of the pots of gold worth 30 billion in this country that no one else knows of?

    :D


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    #6
    Sea Sharp
    Registered Users Posts: 2,593 ✭✭✭Sea Sharp


    The government will have finally put into place measures to counter the 2008 crash :rolleyes:


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    #7
    diverdriver
    Closed Accounts Posts: 987 ✭✭✭diverdriver


    Eoin, how old are you? Not being facetious. If you're under 35 or so, you may never have known bad times. Anyone over that age has seen it all before.

    Negativity and reality are closely related. Postitivity and fantasy are also close cousins.


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    #8
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,508 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    The Government's target for 2013 is that the deficit will have been reduced to 3% of GDP. This is based on the idea that tax take and gdp will grow significantly from next year onwards and that expenditure will be decreased significantly each year.

    I can see GDP coming back down to c. €120bn by 2013, and from the looks of what Cowen is saying at the moment expedinditure will be still in the region of €60bn with government income still down at €30bn or maybe up as much as €40bn. So any less than 12% deficit seems unlikely to me.

    I don't think unemployment will have decreased much as for the moment I can't see where the jobs will come from. We are too expensive for a lot of jobs, and this knowledge economy is a bit of a fallacy. Particularly given that if there is going to be a lot of emigration we will also see a brain drain whereby the people most suited to getting the economy going again will be encouraged to leave.

    I would hope that FF will be gone long before 2013, but they seem to have settled in for the long haul.

    NAMA will impose a massive burden on the tax payer, and in 4 years time I can't see it having done anything other than make a loss. I am sceptical of the banks actually "lending to businesses and consumers" and in any event I don't think that an economy based on such lending is sustainable.

    People talk about green shoots of recovery as though we have just been through a very bad recession and are now at bottom, but we are not yet at the bottom. Indeed, there were two years of denying anything was wrong followed by a year of people talking about recession. This denial has had two serious consequences for the economy: first, while other countries have had 3 years of remedial actions to sort them out, our government has fought a rearguard action to try to stop things getting worse. Second, apart from not doing anything, by maintaining the unsustainably high levels of spending they have actually made our problems worse.


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    #9
    eoinbn
    Registered Users Posts: 799 ✭✭✭eoinbn


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    do you know the location of the pots of gold worth 30 billion in this country that no one else knows of?

    :D

    Our best bet is to start drilling off the west coast and hope for the best :p


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    #10
    butchy2007
    Closed Accounts Posts: 27 ✭butchy2007


    back to the 1960s I reckon.

    We're the laughing stock of Europe, and with FF not willing to do the decent honourable thing and leave when they are being asked to, our demise is nowhere near bottoming out


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    #11
    mega man
    Closed Accounts Posts: 370 ✭✭mega man


    i think by the time ireland is coming out of the recession its minimum wage will be equal to that of poland...


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    #12
    Daragh101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 585 ✭✭✭Daragh101


    mega man wrote: »
    i think by the time ireland is coming out of the recession its minimum wage will be equal to that of poland...

    lol at that!


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    #13
    RCIRL
    Closed Accounts Posts: 56 ✭✭RCIRL


    population wrote: »
    Do you think it is possible things will actually be looking up for the country at that stage or do you think we are just in a negative spiral that could last 20 years or something equally grim?

    Hopefully I'll be lucky enough not to care, by 2013 I hope to be in another country and working, enjoying my life again.


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    #14
    population
    Registered Users Posts: 1,509 ✭✭✭population


    I was talking to an economics student from Trinity and he said 2013 will see us crawl (and he means CRAWL) our way back up, that's why I picked that date for the question.

    Personally I think we could be looking at near 2020.


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    #15
    chahop
    Registered Users Posts: 89 ✭✭chahop


    My 2c we will be out of rescession by the end of 2010 but that wont make much differnce our defficate will still be in double digits no matter whos is goverment.
    We have institutionalized waste and no political will on any side to tackle it.
    And before the public sector get on about being bashed im not just talking about pay its the culture of waste.
    The unions need to get real or the goverment need to grow a pair because we will end up in a situation where the rescession is over and our debt will still be growing.
    So by 2013 the cuts we arent making now will be imposed by a higher power and they will be savage


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    #16
    diverdriver
    Closed Accounts Posts: 987 ✭✭✭diverdriver


    That's exactly it chahop, what it amounts to is business as usual for Ireland, persistently high unemployment, emigration and generally back to the seventies and eighties for us. Familiar ground for me and my contemporaries but it should be something which infuriates the 'Tiger Cubs' who grew up to expect this country to be like any other in Europe. Ups and downs but generally a good place to live. The boom was a false dawn, all through it I came across as gloomy and negative to my younger colleagues because I warned them it wouldn't last and they should start thinking of the future, getting qualifications etc instead of just enjoying their wages.

    I pointed out to them that these were the 'Good old days' they would remember when they got older.Boy do I feel like a prophet now, except that I wasn't. You really didn't need to be psychic to see it coming a long time ago.

    I am optimistic on one level. The younger generation have got used to living in a normal country. This is the time to throw out the old corrupt gangsters in FF. The Berties and the John O Donohues. The whole rotten cabal. I think that will happen.


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    #17
    chahop
    Registered Users Posts: 89 ✭✭chahop


    Driver

    Do you not realize they are all the same, what will any other party do or would have done differnt ?
    I think nothing because no matter whos in power the civil servents and unions are in charge they cant be voted out.


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    #18
    harsea8
    Closed Accounts Posts: 238 ✭✭harsea8


    If this is to be believed ( http://www.independent.ie/national-news/cowens-backtrack-on-cuts-in-public-pay-1924026.html ) then we are likely to still be under the cosh of the IMF......f*cking yellow-bellied idiots are running this country into the gutter!


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    #19
    deise blue
    Registered Users Posts: 666 ✭✭✭deise blue


    harsea8 wrote: »
    If this is to be believed ( http://www.independent.ie/national-news/cowens-backtrack-on-cuts-in-public-pay-1924026.html ) then we are likely to still be under the cosh of the IMF......f*cking yellow-bellied idiots are running this country into the gutter!
    Can't see the problem myself , if the cuts can be managed by means other than a pay cut for public sector workers then that's surely a good thing ?
    It prevents massive industrial strife and maintains the spending power of public sector workers which is surely a good thing for the economy ?


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    #20
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    deise blue wrote: »
    Can't see the problem myself , if the cuts can be managed by means other than a pay cut for public sector workers then that's surely a good thing ?
    It prevents massive industrial strife and maintains the spending power of public sector workers which is surely a good thing for the economy ?

    how is taking on debts on at high interest

    in order to pay public sector

    is good for the economy?


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    #21
    harsea8
    Closed Accounts Posts: 238 ✭✭harsea8


    deise blue wrote: »
    Can't see the problem myself , if the cuts can be managed by means other than a pay cut for public sector workers then that's surely a good thing ?
    It prevents massive industrial strife and maintains the spending power of public sector workers which is surely a good thing for the economy ?

    Whilst I agree that it would be good if we could get out of this mess without anyone suffering pay cuts or loosing their jobs, the cynic in me thinks it unlikely that they have suddenly worked out a way to save €400 million per week without either cutting PS wages or letting PS workers go. More likely they are simply bottling it cos of the threat of nationwide strike action.


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    #22
    deise blue
    Registered Users Posts: 666 ✭✭✭deise blue


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    how is taking on debts on at high interest

    in order to pay public sector

    is good for the economy?
    What are you on about ?
    The Indo article relates to Brian Cowen and the unions exploring the possibility of saving 1.3 billion by other means other than pay cuts.


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    #23
    dazzerb
    Closed Accounts Posts: 156 ✭✭dazzerb


    my concern is where will we see future recovery or growth in Ireland. Can the country be self sustaining without excessive dependencies on foreign investment (especially from USA companies)?

    In 90's economy was fueled by technology and in 2000's by construction, housing and population growth and it would probably unwise to hope or think either industries will be source of future recovery.

    So what is the next big thing? How realistic is it that we find massive amount of oil and gas off the west cost and that would fuel the next big economy in Ireland? Other than that what might it be? Maybe a return to an agriculture economy? I struggle to see what it might be.


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    #24
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    deise blue wrote: »
    What are you on about ?
    The Indo article relates to Brian Cowen and the unions exploring the possibility of saving 1.3 billion by other means other than pay cuts.

    we need to save close to 25 billion...


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    #25
    deise blue
    Registered Users Posts: 666 ✭✭✭deise blue


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    we need to save close to 25 billion...
    Get a grip !
    The amount the Government hope to save in the December budget is 4 billion euro of which 1.3 billion is to come from savings in the Public Sector.


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    #26
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    deise blue wrote: »
    Get a grip !
    The amount the Government hope to save in the December budget is 4 billion euro of which 1.3 billion is to come from savings in the Public Sector.

    and how much would be saved by lets say a 6% cut across the board?

    we did have 6% deflation this year so even if wages stay same yeer still earning more


    and yes im aware PS is not only thing that needs cutting, theres the other elephant in room called Welfare


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    #27
    deise blue
    Registered Users Posts: 666 ✭✭✭deise blue


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    and how much would be saved by lets say a 6% cut across the board?

    we did have 6% deflation this year so even if wages stay same yeer still earning more


    and yes im aware PS is not only thing that needs cutting, theres the other elephant in room called Welfare
    " yeer still earning more " - bit presumptuous there - I'm a private sector worker !
    Whatever made you think I worked in the Public Sector , was it perhaps because I stated that I'd prefer to see the cuts made by other means than a pay cut ?
    Are you perhaps one of the people that would prefer to see pay cuts for workers rather than exploring other options ?


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    #28
    eoinbn
    Registered Users Posts: 799 ✭✭✭eoinbn


    deise blue wrote: »
    Get a grip !
    The amount the Government hope to save in the December budget is 4 billion euro of which 1.3 billion is to come from savings in the Public Sector.

    Which will result in a reduction of €2b in the deficit after the loss in taxes are considered. And when you consider we will be paying an extra €1bn in interest next year and €1bn extra in bond repayments you can see that we will be no better a year from now than we are right now.


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